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Implied volatility. It is like predicting whether it will rain today by counting how many people are carrying umbrellas to work in the morning. – Donald Luskin

Google W-N = 31 citings AMR | cnn chart

2006

Tuesday, February 21, 2006 Inco and Falconbridge's Long Merger Wait; Is RIM Running Low on Options?; ,
Ron Meisels, contributor, NA Marketletter
Lori Rogers, VP of operations, Manpower Canada Don Carty, chair, Virgin America & Porter Airlines William Rice, chair and CEO, Alberta Securities Commission
Duration: 57m 35s please us IE Firefox wont work for us

Friday Jul 18, 2003 AMR (AMR : NYSE : US$11.66)
Net Change: 1.10, % Change: 10.42%, Volume: 14,296,900
It’s amazing what a near-death experience can do for you. American Airlines’ parent reported its second-quarter loss narrowed as cuts in jobs, pay and flights whittled down costs. AMR reduced the net loss to $75 million from $495 million in the same period of 2002, helped by a $358 million payment from the U.S. to help offset losses related to the Iraq war. CEO Gerard Arpey averted bankruptcy in April by securing labour concessions to meet AMR’s target for $4 billion in annual savings. About 2,000 more jobs will be eliminated as AMR cuts flights from its St. Louis hub by half and closes a reservations office there.

Monday Jun 30, 2003 AMR (AMR : NYSE : US$11.32)
Net Change: 0.42, % Change: 3.85%, Volume: 17,268,900
After serious cost cuts and labour and vendor concessions, it seems like a lifetime ago that the stock was trading in the $1 range. In fact, Goldman Sachs said on Friday that the company’s costs are dropping faster than the industry. The stock was up another day after reporting positive operating cash flows for May, one month after reaching $1.8 billion in wage concessions from employees. They are one of the most leveraged airlines to any recovery in the industry.

Friday Jun 27, 2003 AMR (AMR : NYSE : US$10.90)
Net Change: 1.82, % Change: 20.04%, Volume: 26,152,700
The American Airlines parent added 1/5th to its market cap on Thursday, thanks to cost reductions and stronger revenue. May and June numbers indicate a positive cashflow warranting the surge in price partly. This was accomplished by a 4% gain in revenues with wage and work concessions totalling $1.8 billion annually, hopefully enough to nurse the company back to health. A Credit Suisse First Boston raised their rating to an OUTPERFORM, but their 12-month target price stays even at $18.00. In the past three months, the shares have surged six-fold.

Thursday Jun 26, 2003 AMR Corporation (AMR - $9.08)
Rating: Outperform Target: $18.00
Upgrading to Outperform
Last night, AMR provided Q203 cost guidance that was 5% better than CSFB's prior estimate and the rating on the stock is increased to Outperform from Neutral. CSFB is moving its Q203 loss per share estimate to $1.95 from $3.60, and its 2003 forecast to an $11.50 loss from $15.50. CSFB retains its $18 target price, based on a 7 multiple of 2005-2006 peak estimated earnings per share of around $4.00. The key driver of the upgrade is that last night's release suggests a substantial reduction in the odds of AMR going bankrupt, and correspondingly increased probability that current equity investors will see that target price.

Thursday Jun 19, 2003 AMR (AMR : NYSE : US$9.44)
Net Change: 0.52, % Change: 5.83%, Volume: 9,072,400
Merrill Lynch upgraded the stock to a BUY from NEUTRAL due to the airliner ’s turnaround plan, its focus on liquidity and modest capital expenditure requirements for the next few years. The world’s largest airliner is seeing some small revenue gains as its cost cuts targeting $4 billion are helping. They expect to see about $200M in labour savings alone in Q2. May saw an improvement of 4% to revenue. One thing is for certain: airplanes are not going away anytime soon.

Wednesday May 14, 2003 AMR (AMR : NYSE : US$6.99)
Net Change: 0.39, % Change: 5.91%, Volume: 12,071,500
AMR’s American Airlines and its four biggest rivals raised ticket prices $5 each way starting June 1 on U.S. flights, after the government waived a security fee. UAL’s (UALAQ) United Airlines, Delta Air Lines (DAL), Northwest Airlines (NWAC), and Continental Airlines (CAL) matched the move. J.P. Morgan said the increase would probably stick because Northwest joined in. Northwest often balks at higher fares, forcing rivals to rescind them to stay competitive. A U.S. airline-aid package approved in April includes waiving a security fee of $2.50 on each leg of a flight, or as much as $10 total, from June through September. The waiver gives airlines a chance to implement the boost with little or no impact on consumers. The carriers are trying to increase revenue as a continuing travel slump leads to a third straight year of losses.

Monday May 5, 2003 Airline stocks surged after Merrill Lynch said their losses may narrow in 2003 and the threat of bankruptcy for some companies has diminished. Continental Airlines (CAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), and AMR (AMR) all posted double-digit gains. United Technologies (UTX), the maker of Pratt & Whitney jet engines, and Boeing (BA), the world’s largest planemaker advanced as well.

Is it time to wage back into the airline waters? Merrill Lynch upgraded a number of airline stocks last week, suggesting a bottom has likely been had. They expect losses of $8.2 billion in 2003 and $2.5 billion in 2003 with debt-to-capital ratios hovering around 95%. But bankruptcies are good for the survivors as it thins supply and even offers cheap assets. Restructuring has been in full swing as carriers struggle to cut costs any way they can. With 9/11, Iraq, and SARS behind us, it is reasonable that those that emerge among the ashes will have only better times in their future. Having said this, bankruptcy also provides for some cheap assets for those left to pick at the pieces. This will likely keep demand for new planes weak.

AMR (AMR : NYSE : US$5.47)
Net Change: 0.66, % Change: 13.72%, Volume: 23,695,900
When the wind blows, even the turkeys fly. A number of carriers were upgraded by Merrill on Friday which, along with the general market strength, saw airline stocks gain altitude. Some investors think the worst slowdown in the industry’s history is, for the most part, behind us. Even Boeing (BA) rallied, which many don’t even see as a near or mid-term beneficiary, as companies continue to go bankrupt, shore up routes, and cut costs all around. Specific to AMR, the market ignored a lawsuit from the families of over 65 victims of the 9/11 terror attacks. The families are claiming the airline should have known better.

Saturday Apr 26, 2003 ts Union concessions keep American in air
DALLAS—American Airlines averted an imminent bankruptcy filing for the third time in a month as its flight attendants agreed yesterday to a concessions deal aimed at keeping the world's largest carrier out of bankruptcy protection. The decision from the Association of Professional Flight Attendants to accept a revised proposal from American parent AMR Corp. helped cap a turbulent few days at the carrier that included the resignation of chief executive Don Carty, appointment of a successor, and an earnings report that showed AMR lost more than $1 billion (U.S.) in the first quarter.

Saturday Apr 26, 2003 cbc AMERICAN AIRLINES' FLIGHT ATTENDANTS ACCEPT CONCESSIONS American Airlines pulled back from its second brush with bankruptcy in two weeks Friday, after flight attendants agreed to a new package of concessions.

Saturday Apr 26, 2003 The Reuters news agency reports that the world's biggest airline is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Reuters says that AMR Corp.'s American Airlines will file for bankruptcy protection on Friday or Monday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York unless its flight attendants labour union makes contract concessions. Pilots, mechanics and other ground workers have agreed to such concessions to save their jobs. But the union representing flight attendants missed a deadline on Thursday to follow suit. American Airlines' board of directors requested and obtained on Thursday the resignation of the company's CEO, Don Carty.

Sunday Apr 20, 2003 ts AMR SHARES TUMBLE AS UNION CALLS FOR NEW VOTE ON CONCESSIONS Shares of American Airlines' parent company, AMR Corp. , fell by 23 per cent on Monday afternoon trading as flight attendants vowed to hold a third vote on contract concessions.

Sunday Apr 20, 2003 ts AMR unions angered by news of executive perks Benefits shielded from bankruptcy
Workers accepted big concessions

Friday Apr 11, 2003 ts
American says it is losing $5m a dayAirline staff back survival plan
Flight attendants with American Airlines vote narrowly in favour of a pay cut to stave off bankruptcy.
They voted by 10,761 to 9,652 to join pilots, mechanics and other ground staff in backing the plan which the airline says will save $1.8bn a year in labour costs. This has been a race against the clock Don Carty, AMR chairman

Saturday Apr 19, 2003 bbc Threat to American Airlines deal
The future of the troubled airline is again in doubt after unions threaten to reconsider a pay-cut package.

Thursday Apr 17, 2003 AMR (AMR : NYSE : US$4.23)
Net Change: 0.83, % Change: 24.41%, Volume: 25,257,500
Fashionably late. For the time being, the company is not going to file for bankruptcy because the flight attendants have ratified the agreed. This should give some relief to shareholders however the $1.8 billion cost savings these new deals are expected to glean isn’t a miracle. The company is going to need a turnaround in demand if it is to avoid contemplating the same drastic move in the near-term.

Monday Apr 14, 2003 AMR (AMR : NYSE : US$3.30)
Net Change: -0.50, % Change: -13.16%, Volume: 10,127,400
Shares were down sharply ahead of American Airlines’ announcement late Friday that unions representing pilots and flight attendants had accepted an offer of higher pay if the troubled carrier’s financial situation “substantially improves.” Under the “variable wage adjustment program,” the airline would provide pay increases of up to 4.5 percent a year if certain financial conditions were met. The tentative agreements also include new stock option and profit sharing plans. American has already reached a similar wage deal with the union that represents ground workers and mechanics. Unless all three unions vote to ratify the deals by tomorrow, the company has said it will have no option but to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Wednesday Apr 9, 2003 AMR (AMR : NYSE : US$3.63)
Net Change: -0.65, % Change: -15.19%, Volume: 15,493,800
Renegotiate or we break yer legs, see! American Airlines’ union is asking for its recently agreed upon contract to be re-worked to appease unhappy union workers. They feel they aren’t getting enough and the state of both the economy, no inflation, and airline woes does not concern them. Somebody should remind the 16,200 mechanics that 2,500 pilots are being fired, that SSB just downgraded the entire sector, that Spain’s largest airliner just cut 5.2% of global capacity, Singapore Airlines cut 14% of flights and Cathay Pacific Airways is facing its worst-ever crisis (being the most exposed to SARS, as it flies in that region more than any other).

Tuesday Apr 8, 2003 AMR (AMR : NYSE : US$3.95)
Net Change: 0.32, % Change: 8.82%, Volume: 12,246,500
Back from the nearly dead. Shares climbed ahead of news that American Airlines will institute a new stock option plan for its employees, and earmark 15 percent of pre-tax earnings greater than $500 million to certain employees. American announced the plan four days after narrowly avoiding a possible bankruptcy filing when it obtained tentative agreements from its major unions for $1.8 billion of annual cost cuts. AMR said it would grant stock options representing nearly 25 percent of its outstanding shares to American employees, who number roughly 100,000. AMR also said it will issue stock to vendors, aircraft lessors and other creditors who made concessions to help it cut costs. Shares rose more than 150 percent last week.

Tuesday Apr 8, 2003 AMR (AMR : NYSE : US$4.28)
Net Change: 0.33, % Change: 8.35%, Volume: 18,332,200
AMR jumped after the parent of American Airlines said last that it will offer its workers a stock-option and profit-sharing plan that could put up to a quarter of outstanding shares in the hands of employees. The move, which also may reward some suppliers and vendors with stock, came at the end of a week that saw the carrier avert a possible bankruptcy through last-minute labour negotiations that cut $1.8 billion in costs. AMR said the reductions have been tentatively approved by union leadership and will soon be voted on. If the cuts are ratified, the airline will issue options for 37 million to 38 million shares that would vest over three years.

Wednesday Apr 2, 2003 cbc
AMR (AMR : NYSE : US$3.00)
Net Change: 0.90, % Change: 42.86%, Volume: 34,239,700
Shares soared after a leader of its pilots union said late Monday that “part of a proposal” to meet a $660 million cost-cutting goal with American Airlines was in hand, though “several important issues” remain. Talks are continuing, as the company is “still holding the threat of bankruptcy over ‘their’ heads.” Earlier, the flight attendants put its package under review, while the mechanics gave the nod to a pact with the carrier. The official word will come from the Allied Pilots Association.

Tuesday Apr 1, 2003 bbc
American Airlines avoids bankruptcy The world's largest carrier reaches a last-minute deal with three unions, but must still secure financial backing to stay afloat.

Tuesday Apr 1, 2003 AMR (AMR) surged 40 percent higher after its American Airlines unit reached an agreement with its mechanics on concessions. The accord clears the way for $620 million in savings from the Transport Workers Union and may help American avoid a bankruptcy filing.
AMR (AMR : NYSE : US$2.22)
Net Change: 0.64, % Change: 40.51%, Volume: 26,933,200
Free airline peanuts for everyone!!! Shares surged on news that American Airlines reached tentative agreements with three key unions, avoiding a bankruptcy filing. Technicalities still need to be worked out, but that it appears that the world’s largest carrier achieved the $1.8 billion in labour concessions that it needed to avert Chapter 11. Any agreements reached between union and company negotiators would still need to be voted upon by the employees. Industry experts said the pace of labour negotiations at American was likely helped along by the progress made last week by United Airlines (UALGQ), which secured a tentative agreement from its pilots’ union on new contract that would cut annual costs by $1.1 billion.

Monday Mar 31, 2003 AMR (AMR : NYSE : US$1.58)
Net Change: -0.21, % Change: -11.73%, Volume: 12,486,700
Well, everyone else is doing it… Stocks sold off sharply on speculation that subsidiary American Airlines might seek bankruptcy protection as early as this week, according to two bankers who have been briefed on the carrier’s efforts to line up financing ahead of a filing. Executives at the airline worry that labour cost cuts under discussion with unions may not be enough to return the carrier to profitability. A bankruptcy filing by American would almost certainly be the largest in aviation history, and it would follow closely on the heels of filings last year by the No. 2 airline, United (UAL), and by US Airways (UAWGQ), the No. 6 domestic carrier. American is looking to put together more than $1.5 billion in debtor-in-possession financing, which would allow it to maintain its operations.

Sunday Mar 30, 2003
Airline on verge of bankruptcy
American Airlines holds talks around the clock in a last-ditch effort to save the company from bankruptcy.

Saturday Mar 29, 2003 bbc American is continuing negotiations


Investors fear the company will no longer be able to stave off bankruptcy despite last-minute negotiations.

Saturday Mar 29, 2003 AMR (AMR : NYSE : US$1.79) Net Change: -0.40, % Change: -18.26%, Volume: 13,132,800 American Airlines has stepped up talks to secure about $1.5 billion of financing for possible bankruptcy, and may file under Chapter 11 as early as next week. Sources say the AMR unit is considering an early filing to preserve cash, which is dwindling due to lower bookings since the start of the Iraq war. The latest public figure on AMR’s cash was $2.7 billion at the end of 2002, of which $775 million was restricted. Since then, bookings have softened. A Chapter 11 filing would be the largest ever in global aviation history, topping that of rival UAL’s (UAL) United Airlines in December.

Friday Feb 1, 2002 economist
AA=No-No [Version en français] America's regulators ensured that a joint venture between British Airways and American Airlines did not get off the tarmac by demanding that the airlines give up 224 landing slots at Heathrow airport as the price for a deal. Britain's government pulled out of talks on a bilateral “OPEN-SKIES” treaty with America to liberalise transatlantic traffic. American acquiescence to the BA-AA deal had been its price.

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Wednesday-night.com (W-N) publishes reports & Stock charts providing information on selected companies that W-N believes have investment potential. W-N is NOT a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. These reports are provided as an information service only, and the statements and opinions in these report should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. W-N accepts no liability for any loss arising from an investor's reliance on or use of this report.






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