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Web exclusive, January 2006 The McKinsey Global Survey of Business Executives : Confidence Index,
Economic confidence is up worldwide but varies from country to country, notably in the booming economies of China and India.
2006
for Wed1278 (Aug 30, 2006)
U.S.
The economy may already be in the hard landing scenario with second quarter G.D.P announced today at 2.9% growth following 5.6% in the first quarter. The housing market is crumbling with housing starts declining nearly 17% in the last three months to the lowest levels in almost two years. New home sales have declined over 7% in the last two months, the inventory of unsold new homes is at a record high, existing home sales have tumbled almost 8½% since April and almost four million homes are unsold, a seven year high. The housing supply is equivalent to almost seven and a half months. Consumer confidence has declined sharply to a nine month low. Employment in the second quarter and July has only averaged 115,000 and unemployment has returned to 4.8%, a five month high. Durable goods orders decelerated by 2.5% in July and factory orders could decline 1% when published tomorrow. Real hourly earnings have eased 1.1% in the last two months and productivity increased by only 1.1% in the second quarter following 4.3% in the previous quarter. New vehicle sales plunged 17½% in July and Ford announced a cut in production of 20% in the fourth quarter. Leading economic indicators were negative in July and declined 1.4% in the last six months, the worst since February, 2001. Business investments in equipment in the second quarter weakened for the first time in three years. Service spending has weakened since April. On the positive side, manufacturing has held up fairly well, imports have abated and exports were record in June, the fiscal deficit has been revised down by $58 billion to $260 billion. The Fed, on September 20, will likely stay steady at 5¼%. They are still worried about inflation “but inflationary pressures are contained and core inflation was likely to decline gradually over the next several quarters.” “The full effect of previous increases in interest rates on activities and prices probably had not yet been felt and a pause was viewed as appropriate to limit risks of tightening too much and hurting the economy.” “The slowdown in the housing markets, the effects of high energy prices on household purchasing power, the waning impetus of household wealth effects on consumer spending were expected to hold economic growth below potential over the next six quarters,” they said in the last minutes of their August 8 meeting. The stock market will be supported by the strong earnings outlook for the second half (+14%, +15%) for the thirteenth consecutive quarter of double digit growth, the highest share buyback in over ten years ($117 billion in the second quarter, up 43% in the year and 175% in the past two years) and the likelihood of lower commodity prices. Profit margins are at a fifty year high and S.P. 500 price earning ratio below 14 times over the ten year low.
CANADA
The Canadian economy is also softening and the G.D.P. for the second quarter, when released tomorrow, should provide evidence of that after a strong 3.8% growth in the previous quarter. Retail sales have declined nearly 1% in May and June despite the cut of 1% in the G.S.T. The wholesale sector saw its second decline in three months. Building permits were down 1½ % in June and existing home sales have been flat in the last six months. Employment in June-July of only 11,000 people was a disaster and unemployment has returned to 6.4% following a thirty-two year low. On the positive side, June and July leading economic indicators were positive, led by consumer spending (housing related) and durable goods. Manufacturing shipments rebounded by almost 2% in June and the trade surplus improved by almost $1 billion since April at $4.8 billion with exports rising 1.1%. New housing prices continued rising by almost 1½ % monthly in the last twelve months. Inflation has stabilized under 2½% with core on target at 2% despite soaring prices for gasoline and commodities. The Canadian dollar will likely exceed its May 31 high (91.44¢) supported by record foreign takeovers, narrowing interest rate spreads with the U.S. and close to record corporate profits which led the T.S.X. to a 1,165 gain since June 13.
Monday 28 August 2006 globe Bernanke warns against protectionism
“Geopolitical concerns, including international tensions and the risks of terrorism, already constrain the pace of worldwide economic integration and may do so even more in the future,” he said.
Mr. Bernanke's remarks come as trade tensions have heightened between the United States and China and global trade talks have recently stalled. Americans have grown increasingly anxious about the potential to lose their jobs to competitors in China and India, two quickly emerging economic giants.
nyt Global Trends May Hinder Effort to Curb U.S. Inflation Economists said global trends of low-priced Chinese goods and foreign investment in the U.S. and Europe could soon change, increasing inflation.
Saturday 29 July 2006 nyt Eonomy Slowed This Spring
By EDUARDO PORTER
Economic growth braked sharply in the second quarter as the housing market cooled and consumer spending pulled back.
for Wed1271 (July 12, 2006)
CANADA:
As he had indicated in June, David Dodge, Governor of Bank of Canada, held a steady monetary policy “as inflation is under control and as interest rates are as high as they need be.” They have signalled “that they will stay on hold for the foreseeable future.” He sees “the economic growth a little weaker than the 3% projected for next year and the 2.9% growth initially forecast for 2008 as a result of the Canadian dollar strength and expected slowdown in the U.S. economy.” The Bank had seven consecutive increases to 4¼% and nine increases in two years for 2¼% rise. It sees “core inflation staying steady at 2% a year until the end of 2008, although total inflation will likely drop to a pace of about 1.5% over then next year because of 1% reduction in the G.S.T.” They are also “worried about the potential weakness of the trade surplus.” The overnight rate is “judged at this time, to be consistent with achieving the inflation target over the medium term.” The negative June employment data, the narrowing trade surplus in April-May, the declining exports in the last five months (-8.2%) and the near recession in manufacturing, certainly impacted on the decision. The updated Monetary Policy Report will be published tomorrow. After a record 12,998 on April 19, the T.S.X. lost 1,600 points as of June 13 and has recovered 867 points since, to 11,771 as of the close today. Since October, 2002, commodities had gained, 133% (aluminium) 180% (crude) 185% (gold), 240% (silver) and 430% (copper). As of mid-June, copper lost 20% since its May 10 record, aluminium lost 20%, silver, 28%. Gold lost over $66.00 to $566½ from its twenty-six year record of $722.00. Crude oil lost $7.00 to $68¼. The Canadian dollar, after trading at a twenty-eight year record high of 91.44¢ U.S. on May 21, is trading at 88.12¢ U.S. with the decline in key commodity prices and the Central Bank neutral decision. The T.S.X. has traded at over 11,800 yesterday, a five week high.
U.S.
The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy on June 29 for the seventeenth consecutive time since June, 2004, for a five year high federal funds rate of 5¼% as they are increasingly concerned about inflation expectations (although contained for now) as economic growth is moderating in the second quarter after the fastest pace in 2½ years for the first quarter (5.6%). The cooling of the housing market is reflecting the lagged effect of the increase in interest rates and energy prices. Productivity gains have held down unit labour costs. Bernanke suggested that inflation was the “biggest risk to the economy.” Total C.P.I. is up 4.2% in the last twelve months and producer prices, 4½%. Core C.P.I. at 2.4% is over internal targets. The economy is running at 81.7% capacity utilization and above its non-inflationary potential. Second quarter G.D.P. will probably ease to 3% growth, given weaker employment data since April (new job creation averaging only 113,000 monthly). The manufacturing sector is weakening with factory orders down 1.3% (April-May). Declining I.S.M. manufacturing in May-June (-2½ points) and durable goods orders weakening by 5% (April-May). The services index has declined 6 points in May-June. The Conference Board consumer confidence index is down seven points in the second quarter and Michigan down five points in May-June. May’s retail sales were nearly flat. Hourly earnings in June reached 3.9% (year), a 3½ year high. The housing sector was mixed in May-June, new home sales jumped 9.5% and existing home sales weakened by 3%. The housing supply is up 6%. The trade deficit has stabilized between $62 billion - $64 billion monthly, the current account deficit improved by $14 billion to $209 billion in the first quarter and the fiscal budget deficit for 2006 revised down by $127 billion to $296 billion, given strong corporate profits and earnings by individuals. After a 15% rise in the first quarter earnings, the second quarter expected at 12%will be the twelfth consecutive quarter above 10%. After reaching a five year high at 11,643 on May 10, the Dow-Jones lost 836 points by mid-June and has since recovered almost 200 points to 11,023 by the close today. The Fed has indicated that they may take a pause at their next meeting on August 8. June inflation date to be published next week will influence that decision.
- Click for Video Page 1 clip 15 3:38min |
,page 2 clip 16 2:38 min
- Canadian Dollar: 88¢us to 89¢us
- Euro:$1.27 - $1.29 U.S.
Crude Oil $75 U.S. - $77U.S.
- Dow-Jones: D.J.: 11,100 to 11,200
- The T.S.X : 11,900 to 12,100
- Gold:- futurs $650 U.S. -$675 U.S.
- video on 1275wmv Peter Perkins Mkt 320x240.htm
 Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Market Action Symptomatic of Rising Global Risks - June 14, 2006
It’s never a good sign when stock markets make the front pages day after day. When stocks are going up daily, shattering old records, the feeling of bliss is tarnished by a growing worry that all is not quite right. In contrast, when stocks are plunging, well, people are just plain worried.
Past issues
Martin T. Sosnoff 06.15.06, Assume the worst: Ben Bernanke, the new Fed chief, wants a mini-recession. The Fed needs to see more indicator cards turn up before it changes policy emphasis. It craves respect as an inflation fighter, longs for a positive yield curve and ponders the parabolic bubble in oil and metals.
for Wed1267 (14 June, 2006)
INTERNATIONAL:
Three Month Outlook: for 14,June , 2006 last week
DivX
May be required to see some of our older Videos
Saturday Jun 10, 2006 Canada's Real Trade Surplus Has Turned into a Deficit
The 40% appreciation of the Canada-U.S. exchange rate since 2002 has turned Canada's real trade surplus into a deficit, forcing a profound structural change in the economy.
Canada is well known for enjoying large current-account surpluses—3% of GDP in the first quarter—thanks to sky-high commodity prices. What is less known, however, is that the 40% appreciation of Canada's currency relative to the U.S. dollar since 2002 has completely erased its trade surplus on a volume, or price-adjusted, basis. Relative to the size of the economy, the other (real) trade balance fell from 5.5% in 2002 to -0.6% in the first quarter. Fortunately, domestic demand has stepped in to fill the void. The fact that Canada is at full employment despite such a structural shift speaks volumes of the kind of adjustment that has taken place over the past four years.
Sunday Jun 4, 2006 rci Statistics Canada reports that the economy has been creating an increased percentage of jobs for the past 13 years, a longer period of job creation since the 1960s and 1970s. The federal agency reports that jobs grew during that 13-year period at an average of two per cent a year. StatsCan says that last year more than 17 million Canadians were employed, 67 per cent of those in a position to do so.
JACQUES CLÉMENT: REPORT ON THE ECONOMY
for Wed1265 (May 31, 2006)
INTERNATIONAL:
Video Page 1 clip 15 3:38min |
,page 2 clip 16 2:38 min
Canada
After losing over 1,000 points since its all time high of 12,488 on April 19, the T.S.X. recovered 320 points in the latest week, supported by crude oil, rebounding $1.50 U.S., trading above $72.00 U.S. and gold, rising $5.00, being traded at over $650 U.S. This also led to the Canadian dollar firming 1.50¢, trading today at a new twenty-eight year high of 91.44¢ U.S. as first quarter G.D.P. rose 3.8%, stronger than market expectations (3%) and Bank of Canada’s estimate of 3.2%. It was broad-based, with strong housing numbers including a decline of 13% in March, strong consumer spending (+5%), business investments and net exports added to the expansion, with solid domestic demand (+5%) strongly offsetting the effect of the stronger dollar. The first quarter current account surplus of $10.7 billion, despite declining $2.6 billion from the record previous quarter, was still the third largest ever. The decline was mainly attributed to the decline of $3.3 billion to $17.2 billion in the trade surplus, due to the decline in volume of energy exports, mainly lower natural gas prices and the strengthening currency. This was offset, in past, by declining interest and payments to foreigners as Canadian debts have declined significantly. Foreigners bought $8.2 billion of Canadian equities in the first quarter, but reduced their direct investments by $3 billion to $12 billion. The Canadian dollar is also supported by record merger and acquisition activities, mainly in the mining and energy sectors that totalled $166 billion last year, the highest in six years.
U.S.:
After losing 525 points since its six year high of 11,643 on May 10, the Dow-Jones recovered 50 points in the latest week, as first quarter G.D.P. was revised upward to 5.3%, the fastest pace in 2½ years, given stronger exports and inventory building. April economic data were mixed to negative, with new home sales rising by almost 5%, its fastest pace this year, but existing home sales weakening by 2%, with rising mortgage rates (over 6¼% ) and inventory of unsold homes at a record high. Personal income and consumption rose by 0. 5%, but the University of Michigan and the conference Board consumer confidence faltered 7 to 8 points to the lowest levels in seven months. Current confidence fell the most since 1978 as gasoline prices were near record levels. Durable goods orders weakened by almost 5%, given weaker aircraft orders. Core personal consumption inflation was under 2.1% (year over year), the biggest increase since March 2005. Housing prices saw the smallest increase in four and a half years. The U.S. dollar was weaker over the week, with the Euro trading at $1.2867 U.S. and ¥112.20.
- Video Wed 1266 June 7th Perkins Perkins Page 1 aprox 3:38min
- Click for Video Page 1 clip 15 3:38min |
,page 2 clip 16 2:38 min
- Canadian Dollar: 88.75¢us to 90.75¢us
- Euro:$1.28 - $1.30 U.S.
Crude Oil $70.00 U.S - $72.00
- Currency Strategists for Forex Capital Markets (FXCM)
- Dow-Jones: D.J.: 11,000 to 11,200
- The T.S.X : 11,350 to 11,450
- Gold:- futurs $625 U.S. -$670U.S.
Three Month Outlook: for 6, 6, 2006
for Wed1264 (May 24, 2006)
Canada
Despite very stable core inflation (1.6%) since August last year, declining trade surplus ($5 billion from $7.7 billion) due to weaker exports (down 5.7% in the first quarter), the first trade deficit in real terms since 1970, weaker housing starts (-13% in March) and existing home sales in April -3.2% and the loss of 165,000 manufacturing jobs in the last twelve months, Bank of Canada, today, tightened monetary policy by ¼% for an overnight rate of 4¼%, for the seventh consecutive increase, as the economy is operating near full capacity, domestic demand has been very strong, employment is booming (over 123,000 jobs have been created in the last four months with 6.4% unemployment, near thirty year low and skilled labour shortages), consumer spending remains strong (retail sales +2½% in the first quarter, with new vehicle sales +2.1% and wholesale sales stronger by 1% in March). Manufacturing shipments also rebounded by 1.1% in March and unfilled orders were at the highest level in three years. The T.S.X. lost another 217 points this week for a cumulative loss of over 1,000 points from its all time record of 12,488 on April 19. In March and October last year, the T.S.X. lost respectively, 720 and 1,000 points. Since 1981, there have been twelve major corrections including four between 7½% and 8½%, four between 10% and 18%, two between 20% and 23%, with the largest in October, 1987 (Black Monday -22.6% and August, 1998 with the Russian and Asian crises, -20%), with gold off over $54.00 over the week, the Canadian dollar weakened to 89¼¢, as Bank of Canada might have reached neutrality and may take a pause in July. It has reached 90 3/8¢ U.S. on May 2 for a twenty-eight year high. Crude was up marginally over the week.
U.S.
With economic growth preliminary first quarter data to be published tomorrow and expected to be revised up by 1% to 5.8% from the advance number and year to date inflation having risen to over 5% annual rate and core at 3%, with April rise of 0.6%, the biggest jump in three months, the Federal Reserve is likely to increase its Federal funds rate by ¼% for the seventeenth time on June 29. The discount rate will be at 6¼% for the ninth time in history and the prime rate will be increased to 8¼%. Personal consumption inflation will be scrutinized when released for April on Friday, as well as the personal consumption number which was up almost 2% in the first quarter. Ben Bernanke, the Fed’s Chairman, in a speech in Chicago yesterday, has reiterated that further firming of interest rates may be needed to cool off the economy. He predicted that the housing sector will land softly, given overall strength of the economy, but with rising mortgage rates (thirty year at 6.60%) and affordability becoming more difficult, slowing housing sales and prices not rising as quickly, but in a very orderly fashion. He sees the labour market as strong with 700,000 new jobs created in the last four months, with 4.7% unemployment, the lowest in 4½ years. Income is rising (up 1.8% in the first quarter). He expressed concern over the proliferation of non-traditional mortgages, which represented 30% to 40% of all new mortgages in 2005. The Dow-Jones only lost 89 points to 11,117 in the latest week as the U.S. dollar weakened against the Euro at $1.2845. The Dow-Jones has lost 526 points since its six year high of 11,643 on May 10.
Video Outlook [2:45 min] 21 May
- Click for Video Page 1 clip 15 3:38min |
,page 2 clip 16 2:38 min
- Canadian Dollar: 88¢us to 90¢us
- Euro:$1.28 - $1.30 U.S.
Crude Oil $69.00 U.S - $71.00
- Dow-Jones: D.J.: 11,100 to 11,300
- The T.S.X : 11,100 to 11,600
- Gold:- $600 U.S. -$650U.S.
The markets and the world economy
Bears in the woods
IF YOU meet a bear in the woods, try not to panic or scream; on no account should you turn your back and run. As markets around the world have turned grizzly over the past two weeks, some investors seem to have forgotten the old hikers' maxim. After three years of big gains, many stockmarkets have tumbled by 10% or more in less than ten days. The loudest growls have echoed around emerging markets and commodities. Europe has surrendered most of this year's gains. Americans have so far escaped lightly, but they would be unwise to take comfort. Their housing market, the recent rock of their economy, is where a much grizzlier creature lies in wait.
Friday May 26, 2006 Feds post whopping $12 billion budget surplus
The federal government has posted a whopping $12-billion budget surplus for the fiscal year that ended March 31.
JACQUES CLÉMENT: REPORT ON THE ECONOMY
for Wed1263 (May17, 2006)
INTERNATIONAL:
U.S.:
After reaching a six year high on May 10 at 11,643, the Dow-Jones has tumbled almost 450 points, despite crude oil declining $6.70 since April 21, as inflation concern is rising (consumer price in April is up 0.6% (+3.5%, year/year) and producer prices up 0.9% (4% for the year), the largest increase in seven months). The Federal Reserve is likely to tighten by another ¼% to 5¼% on June 29 for the seventeenth consecutive increase since June, 2004. Retail sales increased 1.1% in March-April but there are concerns that consumer spending is likely to slow down, given record energy and material prices and increasing interest rates (thirty year mortgage rates over 6½%). The trade deficit, surprisingly, improved by $3.6 billion to $62 billion but remains a major concern as do record current account and fiscal deficits. The housing market continues to weaken significantly, with housing starts declining another 7.4%. After increasing by 14½% in January, starts have weakened by 23% in the last three months, the worst decline since November, 2004. Existing home sales weakened by 1.5% in the first quarter and prices declined for the first time in fifteen years. Other factors affecting the market include the record low approval of the President, the Senate Republican scandals and geopolitical uncertainties in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Middle East, Venezuela, Nigeria and Ecuador.
Canada:
From its all time record high of 12,485 on April 19, the T.S.X. has lost close to 850 points in the last month given the steep price correction in commodity prices, as crude oil prices declined $6.70 to $68.67, gold by $31.00 from its twenty-six year high of $721.50 and other commodities by 8%-9% from record highs reached one week ago. It started with the International Energy Department revising down the growth demand for crude, the third reduction in four months and consumers retrenching when gasoline went over $3.00 U.S. per gallon and U.S. Department of Energy increased oil and gasoline inventories. Hedge funds were major sellers. New vehicle sales rebounded in March by 1.1% and manufacturing shipments by 1.5% as unfilled orders reached the highest level in three years. Wholesale sales declined 1% and inventories weakened. Existing home sales declined 3.2% , mainly in Vancouver (18%) and Toronto (5½%). Mortgage rates continue climbing with the five year at 6.95%. The Trade surplus narrowed by $800 million to $5.1 billion as imports climbed 3.6%, while exports strengthened by 1.1%. First quarter trade surplus was revised to $17.1 billion. Consumer confidence (March) strengthened. Foreigners bought an additional $9.2 billion of Canadian securities in March, evenly divided between bonds and stocks, for $17.6 billion in the first quarter. As for Canadians, they bought $3.3 billion of foreign securities in March, including $4.7 billion fixed income securities and liquidated $1.4 billion of foreign stocks. For the first quarter they bought $8.9 billion of foreign securities. The net purchase of $9.2 billion in March by foreigners did not prevent a decline of two cents on the Canadian dollar in March.
Bank of Canada will likely increase its overnight rate next Wednesday by ¼% to 4¼ % for its seventh consecutive increase and its highest since September, 2001.
Three Month Outlook: for Wed May 24, 2006
- Canadian Dollar: 88¢us to 90¢us
- Euro:$1.27 - $1.30 U.S.
Crude Oil $67.00 U.S - $70.00
- Currency Strategists for Forex Capital Markets (FXCM)
- Dow-Jones: D.J.: 11,100 to 11,300
- The T.S.X : 11,500 to 11,750
- Gold:- $650 U.S. -$700U.S.
Monday May 22, 2006 Market reversal may soon be over
For many a small investor, the past week or so has been a scary experience, with stocks in Canada, the U.S. and Europe suffering the biggest drop in years. But they might take solace in the fact that for some professionals, today's outlook doesn't seem all that bad.
EDC economist warns a correction is due
The world economy has been growing too rapidly and is due for a correction, which will put downward pressure on the price of oil and metals as well as the Canadian dollar, the chief economist at Export Development Canada warns. see wn on Stephen S. Poloz
Saturday May 20, 2006 Dip in core inflation takes pressure off interest rates
A drop in core inflation has given central bank governor David Dodge a convenient way to put an end to interest rate hikes without looking like he is bowing to pressure from the surging Canadian dollar.
JACQUES CLÉMENT: REPORT ON THE ECONOMY
for Wed1262 (May10, 2006)
INTERNATIONAL:
U.S.:
The Federal Reserve increased its Federal funds rate by ¼% to 5% today, for the sixteenth consecutive increase since June, 2004 to the highest level in more than five years and indicated that further firming may be needed with increasing inflation risks caused by record energy and metal prices. The Fed also indicated that they may take a pause to assess the impact of the rate hike. Total inflation has risen to 3½% and wages have risen by 3.8% (year), its fastest pace since mid - 2001.
The economy grew by a strong 4.8% in the first quarter, its fastest pace in 2½ years and the second quarter is expected at over 3%. It is being revised up to 3½% for the year. In the first four months of the year, nearly 700,000 new jobs have been created with 4.7% unemployment, the lowest in 4½ years. The manufacturing sector is surging and productivity rose at 3.2% annual rate in the first quarter. Spending in services has continued very strong. Department store sales rose 6.6% in April, the biggest rise in two years.
The housing sector is in a deteriorating state with housing contracts to purchase existing homes at a two year low and with rising mortgage rate at 6.58% for thirty years, the highest since November, 2002, with signed pending sales contracts down six percent for the year, the sixth monthly decline in the last seven months, with big inventory of homes on the market, equivalent to 5½ months and mortgage applications the lowest in the last 4½ years, with soaring fuel costs. Buyers are even abandoning their deposits to cancel their contracts.
The March trade deficit is expected at $67 billion, a rise of $1.3 billion with strong imports.
Canada:
With the Canadian dollar having traded at ninety-one and one eighth cents, a twenty-eight year high, with over 165,000 jobs lost in the manufacturing sector since 2002, profit margins having been squeezed, declining exports in January and February (-6.8%), declining shipments and orders, the Central Bank with only 1.7% core inflation, stable for the last seven months, will be under severe pressure to take a pause on May 24 after the sixth consecutive increase since September, 2002, to 4% overnight rate on April 25. Besides the daily pressure from manufacturers and exporters, the Bank has been highly criticized by the Premier of Ontario and the Finance Minister of Québec.
On economic data this past week, building permits were surprisingly strong in March (+5.3%) but housing starts were down 13½% for April and new vehicle sales declined 5% in April. Overall job creation is rising at a 30,000 monthly pace and unemployment at 6.4% is at a nearly thirty year high and crude is $3.00 U.S. away from its high of $75.35 (April 21), up over 40% on the year. Copper, zinc and platinum are at record highs, aluminium at an eighteen year high.
Three Month Outlook: for Wed May10, 2006
Friday May 12, 2006 Fed Raises Rates Again but Clouds Next Move The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates again on Wednesday, its 16th increase in two years, and gave itself room to raise them again in June. WN more%
Thursday May 11, 2006 America's markets responded skittishly to comments by Ben Bernanke, rallying after the chairman of the Federal Reserve signalled that the policy of raising interest rates was over and falling in response to a later report that he thought his comments had been misunderstood. Pundits made inevitable comparisons with Mr Bernanke's predecessor, Alan Greenspan, who made a point of never being understood.
Diana Thébaud Nicholson
Sunday May 7, 2006 target="_" >Canadians upbeat about the economy
Canadian consumers and businesses are upbeat about the economy, reflecting optimism among consumers about their job prospects and suggesting businesses are adjusting to the strong dollar, the Conference Board of Canada reported Friday.
Harper hits homerun with budget, says pollster
The Harper government scored a major coup with the federal budget this week in its efforts to put together a majority victory in the next election, a CanWest poll reveals.
JACQUES CLÉMENT: REPORT ON THE ECONOMY
for Wed1261 (May 3, 2006)
INTERNATIONAL:
Canada:
Despite core inflation at a modest 1.17%, the tightening effect of a twenty-eight year high (90¾¢) for the Canadian dollar, the loss of 182,000 manufacturing jobs since the end of 2002, declining shipments (-3%), new orders (-2%), exports (-7%) in the first two months of the year, Bank of Canada is likely to continue increasing its overnight rate twice to 4½% before taking a pause. The Governor has indicated clearly, his intentions “as the global economy is growing at a robust pace (the I.M.F. now sees 4.8%, with China at 9½%, U.S., 3½%, Canada 3% - 3½%, Japan, over 3%, India 6% and 5½% growth in Singapore, Argentina, Venezuela and Chile”. Dodge views “The Canadian economy operating at or just above its production capacity and with higher prices for many commodities, including record energy prices and he is worried that inflationary pressure might develop in the economy despite downward pressure from prices of imported consumer goods. The semi-annual monetary policy report was rather hawkish but he views “the risks that the U.S. dollar and economy will topple because of the record current account deficit as dissipating”.
Canada has seen a sharp increase in its terms of trade. The monthly trade surplus is still above six billion dollars as imports have been declining (-4.6%). Productivity has been revised up to 2.2% for 2005 against 2.7% for the U.S. Employment has remained very strong (over 100,000 new jobs in the first quarter). Capacity utilization is near 85%. Corporate profits are rising at 20% - 25% annual rate, the strongest in fifty years. Capital investments in machinery and equipment are very strong. Despite weak new vehicle sales, consumer spending has been fairly robust.
The housing market has remained strong with starts up 4% in March, the highest since August, 2004 and existing home sales reaching a record level in the first quarter, with prices up 11.5% in the last twelve months. Foreigners continue to buy Canadian stock (nearly $9.5 billion in January-February). The budget was viewed as “slightly contractionary” by Dodge, but the private sector sees it generally from fairly stimulative to a huge fiscal stimulus (Conference Board) adding 0.7% to economic growth this year and next.
U.S.
After G.D.P. growth of 4.8% in the first quarter, the rise in commodity prices, particularly energy, has pushed total inflation to 3½% but, despite core, C.P.I. and consumer spending, inflation remaining at 2%, The Federal Reserve will increase federal funds rate by ¼% next week to 5%, as the economy is running way over its non-inflationary potential. The two day meeting in late June could lead to a pause, but Bernanke has precised that he is not finished lifting interest rates after telling Congress that “they could take a pause in their tightening mode and even turn a blind eye to inflation pressures, at least temporarily, as they assess how the past fifteenth consecutive rise in federal funds rate, the longest in twenty-five years, is affecting the economy.”
They are “basically trying to create some flexibility.” He expects the economy to slow down to a more sustainable pace later this year. “If energy prices stabilize this year, even at a high level, their adverse effects on both growth and inflation should diminish somewhat over time,” Bernanke said. He expects “housing to unwind in an orderly way but the risk exists that a more pronounced slowdown could be a drag on growth this year and next.” He thinks that the record current account deficit will be resolved gradually over time, but there are risks of a sudden shift in sentiment that could be disruptive for the U.S. dollar. His outlook for inflation was reasonably favourable, given core inflation having been stable over the past year and longer term inflation expectations fairly stable. Employment has been very strong with 600,000 new jobs created in the first quarter.
The manufacturing sector is surging with durable goods orders up 8% (February-March) including factory orders (+4.6%), the largest increase in almost one year. Spending on services was very strong and broad. Consumer spending rose by 1.7% in the first quarter as personal income rose in the same order of magnitude. Consumer confidence rose sharply in April (Conference Board). New home sales rebounded sharply in March (+13.8%), the largest increase in thirteen years and existing home sales rose 5½% (February-March). The trade deficit (February) improved by three billion dollars after a record $68.7 billion, as imports declined by 2.5%. Productivity is estimated to have risen at 3¾% annual rate in the first quarter over its average of the last five years.
Three Month Outlook: for Wed May 3, 2006
Monday May 1, 2006 rci Statistics Canada reports that the Canadian economy grew by a "modest" .2 per cent in February, the same rate as January's. The latest result corresponds with economists' predictions. StatsCan says the economy was boosted by strength in wholesale sales and solid performance by utilities, which was however offset by drops in mining, oil and gas extraction and manufacturing.
Friday Apr 28, 2006 China Raises Rates to Slow Its Economy The action aims to slow a surge in investment and it may potentially brake China's voracious appetite on world markets for oil and other commodities.
Friday Apr 28, 2006 rci OTTAWA: CENTRAL BANK SEES CONTINUED STRONG GROWTH
The Bank of Canada has predicted continuing robust economic growth in both Canada and the U.S. In its latest monetary policy report, the central bank forecasts growth of 3.1 per cent this year and 3 per cent for 2007, up slightly from its previous prediction for that year. The bank says the pace will slow slightly in 2008 to 2.9 per cent. The bank predicates its predictions on a global hunger for Canadian resources and strong domestic demand. However, the central bank says further interest rate rises may be needed to ward off inflation. On Tuesday, the bank raised its trend-setting lending rate by one-quarter of a point to four per cent, its sixth straight quarter-point increase. As for the U.S., Canada's biggest trading partner, it sees 3.5-per cent growth this year, 3.2 per cent in the next and 3.1 per cent in 2008.
Saturday Apr 22, 2006 rci Statistics Canada report that inflation in March stood at 2.2 per cent, the same figure as for February. But analysts cited by the Canadian Press warn that the inflation rate is sure to rise because of burgeoning gasoline prices, which in March were 7.4 per cent higher than a year previous. The analysts say the latest inflation figure makes it almost certain that the Bank of Canada will raise its trend-setting interest rate by one-quarter of a point to four per cent next Tuesday.
Tuesday Apr 18, 2006 rci OTTAWA: BUSINESS MODESTLY UPBEAT ON FUTURE
A survey of 100 Canadian businesses by the Bank of Canada reveals that they're optimistic about the overall economic outlook. The firms survey told the central bank that they continue hiring and investing. But they also responded that further increases in growth are unlikely. The bank's poll was conducted between the month beginning Feb. 17. The publication of the survey comes a week before the central bank will have or not have the occasion to raise its trend-setting interest rate. Many economists have predicted that the Bank of Canada will raise the rate by one-quarter of a percentage point to four per cent as a safeguard against inflation.
Sunday Apr 16, 2006
Canadian economy pushing against capacity
Canada is riding a wave of prosperity with an economy increasingly pushing against its capacity limits to cope with burgeoning Asian trade, Statistics Canada said Thursday.
Monday Apr 10, 2006 nyt Seizing Intangibles for the G.D.P. By LOUIS UCHITELLE
When it comes to measuring how much the American economy produces, the gross domestic product leaves something to be desired.
Monday Apr 10, 2006 ts Canada's jobless rate drops to 6.3 per cent
When a labour dispute brought her courses as Humber College to a grinding halt, Diana Dickson figured she might as well make the most of the situation and get a full-time job.
Monday Apr 10, 2006 rci Canada's jobless rate is at its lowest level since 1974. Statistics Canada reports that the unemployment rate in March was 6.3 per cent, .01 of a point lower than in the previous month. The federal data gatherer says 50,500 new jobs were created last month and that most of them were full-time. Many of the new jobs were created in the provinces of Alberta and British Columbia. The news leads to the possibility that the Bank of Canada will raise its trend-setting interest rate to check possible inflation. The next date for such a change is April 25. The rate stands now at 3.75 per cent.
Sunday Apr 2, 2006 rci The governor of the Bank of Canada, David Dodge, recommends that the mission of the International Monetary Fund be dramatically altered. Mr. Dodge says the IMF should get out of the lending business because loans and bailouts to insolvent government impede only prevent the kind of market reforms that are desirable. He cited the IMF's bailouts of government during the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and 1998. Mr. Dodge says the Fund's true role should be to criticize national policies that harm the global economy, such as the U.S. budget deficit, Europe's restrictive labour policies or China's control of the trading value of its currency. At the same time, he says China and other prospering Asia nations should have a greater voice at the IMF
rci The U.S. Trade Representative has criticized Canada, China and 60 other nations of engaging in unfair trade practices. The criticism came in Rob Portman's annual National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers. The report mentions the long-standing trade dispute between Canada and the U.S. over imported Canadian softwood lumber. The U.S. levies punitive tariffs on the imports on the grounds that Canada's forestry industry is subsidized, which Canada denies. The report says the U.S. will continue litigation, while hoping that negotiations can resume. Canada has won a series of WTO and NAFTA rulings in the dispute, but the U.S. has ignored them. The document contains a series of other complaints about Canada, including the marketing practices of the Canadian Wheat Board and limits on foreign investment. Concerning China, the report repeated the familiar complaint about China's failure to stop theft of intellectual property.
rci A federal cabinet minister says the Canadian government considers liquefied natural gas a dangerous cargo and will therefore act to block projects to ship tankers loaded with the substance through Canadian waters. The senior cabinet minister from the eastern province of New Brunswick, Greg Thompson, says the government has advised the three American companies involved in the project that tankers laden with LNG won't be allowed to pass through Canadian waters. The firms plan to build LNG terminals on the Maine coast near southern New Brunswick. Local residents fear that the industrialization of the Bay of Fundy will harm fishing and the tourism industry. The companies have said they believe they have the right to send the tankers through Canadian waters.
JACQUES CLÉMENT: REPORT ON THE ECONOMY
for Wed1255 (March 22, 2006)
INTERNATIONAL:
China:
With $202 billion (U.S.) record trade surplus with the U.S. last year and almost $18 billion in January (+9.9%), equivalent to 25% of the U.S. trade deficit, the pressure from the U.S. and other countries will be maintained for a second revaluation of the Yuan, before China’s President’s U.S. visit in April, as the U.S. Senate bill deadline on imposing 27½ % duty fees on U.S. imports from China, is March 31. The Yuan has strengthened very slightly (0.7%) since last July revaluation. I still believe that there will be another revaluation before the anniversary date. The experts estimate that the Yuan is undervalued by 40% to 50%. Market forces could push the Yuan up by 3%. China is expected to surpass the U.S. this year as the largest exporter of manufacturing goods ($713 billion, +20%) China has drawn $8.6 billion U.S., of direct foreign investments in the first two months of this year and $220 billion U.S. since their accession to the W.T.O. (December, 2001). Inflation last year was 1.8% against 3.6% in 2004. Over 8% economic growth ($2 trillion U.S.), is expected this year against over 9% last year. Their savings ($1.8 trillion U.S.) is equivalent to 40% of income. The Central Bank rate is 37/8%. China imports 30% of its oil, 45% of its iron ore and ten non-ferrous metals and is the world leading consumer of copper (20%), nearly 1½ times the U.S.
Canada:
T.S.X :, after closing at 12,086 record on March 16, lost 85 points this week, as crude oil weakened and gold lost $4.50 U.S. The Canadian dollar also lost ground (0.85¢), with Bank of Canada’s Governor calling for another modest increase in interest rates that may be needed to stem inflation, despite February inflation abating to 2.2% in the last twelve months and 1.7% core. Bank of Canada is widely expected to raise its overnight rate by ¼% to 4% for its sixth consecutive month, on April 25. David Dodge is not too worried about wages increasing faster in Alberta and B.C., as higher wages are not pushing up prices in other areas and fuelling inflation. He was not seeing any sign of inflationary pressure. He views the labour force as quite mobile. He was encouraged by recent signs of improvement in productivity as business investments are picking up. After strong December data, manufacturing shipments declined 0.7% in January and new orders were flat. Manufacturing inventories rebounded and unfilled orders rose by 1%. Wholesale sales (January) were buoyant (+1.8%) as were wholesale inventories (+1.4%). Retail sales (January) also rose 1.4% to record levels for the fourth consecutive month, with strong auto sales. Foreigners continued to buy Canadian securities in January (+$3 billion net), including $4.7 billion equities, as Canadians bought $4.5 billion of foreign bonds. The T.S.X. will continue to rise with very positive earnings. Outlook in the first quarter (+28.6%) and excluding energy (+14.3%) for the T.S.X., -60.
UNITED STATES
The Dow-Jones reached a near six year high today, closing at 11, 317, up 100 points on the week, with the decline in crude oil and other commodity prices. The Beige Book indicated that the overall economic activity continued to expand in early March, industrial production (February) rebounded sharply (because of the utility output), consumer prices (February) moderated sharply, with energy prices declining 1.2%. Producer prices (February) plunged 1.4%, the largest monthly decline in almost three years, as energy prices declined 4.7%, with gasoline prices, -11%, natural gas, -4% and liquefied petroleum gas (heating), -14.3%. There were also some weaker economic data: housing starts, after rising 14.5% in January to a 33 year high, weakened by almost 8% in February, but were still over 2 million annual rate, for nine of the past ten months. Philadelphia manufacturing slowed down and the Michigan consumer sentiment for March receded somewhat. Leading economic indicators (February) declined after a major downward revision in January. It was the first decline in five months. The stock market will continue to be supported by a strong profit outlook (+11%) for the first quarter, after rising 14.5% in the fourth quarter, for the eleventh consecutive double digit earnings growth, the second time in fifty-six years.
Near - Term Outlook: for Wed Mar 22nd, 2006
Saturday Mar 25, 2006 ec
That frothy feeling
Stockmarkets continued the year's bullish run. The FTSE index closed above 6,000 for the first time in five years and the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded over 11,000. The star performer was the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex index, which touched 11,000 for the first time, just six weeks after topping 10,000.
Saturday Mar 18, 2006 Trade surplus shrinks>/a>
Canada's merchandise trade surplus drops more than expected to $6.35-billion as energy exports pull back
the Current Beige Book
March 15, 2006 Fed reports growth in 11 of 12 regions Beige Book: Retail mixed, jobs improve, price pressure up
JACQUES CLÉMENT: REPORT ON THE ECONOMY
for Wed1254 (March 15, 2006)
Japan:
The Bank of Japan has dropped its super-easy monetary policy that they have kept for the last five years and will gradually raise interest rates by cutting, over several months, the excess cash in this banking system amid signs of economic recovery (2.7% G.D.P. growth in 2005 including 5½% in the fourth quarter) and emerging from deflation (inflation rising by 0.5% in January). The transition will be slow and the benchmark interest rate will remain near zero for some time. Price stability has been set between zero and 2%. Most analysts expect interest rates to be raised by year-end to ¼ of 1%. Wages are rising and the unemployment rate is near a seven year low and it has spurred consumer spending. The world’s second largest economy ($4.7 trillion) is moving towards the longest expansion since W.W.II. Economic growth is projected at 2% this year by the O.E.C.D. Japan is the most indebted country in the world at 170% of the G.D.P. That compares to 31% for Canada and 65% for the U.S. The Nikkei, after increasing 40% last year, is only up 1½% year to date.
CANADA
The economy continued fairly strong in the first quarter with over 51,000 new jobs created in the first two months of the year (over 50% in Alberta and B.C. where a real shortage of skilled labour is occurring) and 6.4% unemployment nationally, a thirty year low. Despite average weekly and hourly earnings growing by 3% to 3½%, Governor David Dodge is not too concerned that the booming job market is overheating the economy as the participation rate has declined significantly. He admitted real pressure on the resource and construction industries. “Upward pressure on wages is not a bad thing as real household incomes are rising.” Productivity has risen 1.1% last year after two years of stagnation. Part of the reason that Canada has lagged the U.S. productivity for the past two years, he explained, stemmed from the rise in commodity prices. The trade surplus in January narrowed by 3.3% to$6.3 billion as exports declined 3.3% with energy exports down 15% as crude oil price receded $6.50 U.S. and natural gas $2.33 U.S. China has become our fourth largest export market (crude accounting for one third, followed by wood pulp, metals, fertilizers and organic chemicals). New vehicle sales rebounded by nearly 1½% in January and new housing prices continued strong, rising by close to 1%. Capacity utilization in the fourth quarter was 86.3%, 1.3% below the peak of 1998 (first quarter). Bank of Canada will likely tighten again by ¼% to 4% on April 25, unless the Canadian dollar crosses its fourteen year high of 88.50¢ U.S. of March 2.
The T.S.X : has gained almost 320 points in the latest week and 536 points since February 13 and is 25 points from its all time high of 12,083 of February 6. The Canadian dollar has firmed up to 86.6¢ U.S. with crude oil rising $3.50 and gold, $9.60 U.S.
UNITED STATES
The Dow-Jones gained 200 points in the latest weak to a five year high of 11,210, despite the rise in energy prices and the U.S. dollar lost 1cent against the Euro ($1.20 U.S.), as January trade deficit reached an all time record high of $68.5 billion U.S. (+5.3%). Imports rose by 3.5% to a record $183 billion, with the deficit with China at a $17.9 billion record (+9.9%), with OPEC at $8.4 billion (+11.6%), with non-petroleum $49.6 billion record. Oil imports rose 4%. The record current account deficit for the fourth quarter at $225 billion U.S. and 2005 at a record of $805 billion U.S., representing 6.4% of G.D.P., were a drag on the U.S. currency. Employment was very strong with nearly 250,000 new jobs created in February, the largest in five months and 815,000 since October, bringing unemployment near a 4½ year low at 4.8%. Productivity rose 2½% last year after averaging 3.8% in the previous two years. Business inventories have risen 1.2% in the last two months and wholesale sales by 2.2%. Retail sales declined 1.3% after the largest gain in four years in December (2.9%). Import prices (February) declined and are up 7½% in the last twelve months with no impact on consumer spending.
Near - Term Outlook: for Wed Mar 15th, 2006
Friday Mar 17, 2006 ts
Plants troubled but outlook bright
Ontario's share of Canada's factory output in January fell below 50 per cent for the first time since 1982, when the country was mired in a deep recession. Steven Theobald reports.
Auto-plant spending to jump in Ontario
Capital investment in Canada's auto industry will jump to almost $4.9 billion this year, and one leading analyst says the hefty level of spending will continue for the rest of the decade. Tony Van Alphen reports.
Vaughan sings its virtues again
Vaughan, whose "City Above Toronto" ad campaign angered many GTA politicians, is at it again with a cheeky new radio jingle touting low taxes and "high lifestyle." Gail Swainson reports.
Many firms restating financial results
More and more companies are restating their financial results, which some observers say provides evidence of the need for more rigorous regulation of internal controls. Sharda Prashad reports.
Farmers applaud duty on U.S. corn
Canadian corn farmers applauded a ruling Wednesday that upholds stiff penalties on imports of U.S. grain corn found to be subsidized. Sandra Cordon reports.
Thursday Mar 16, 2006 Canada's federal data gatherer reports that the country's trade with China is growing impressively. Statistics Canada says that in the six-year period starting in 1998 it tripled to $7 billion US. StatsCan says that Canada's exports to China have grown by a far greater percentage than those going elsewhere, and that China is now the country's fourth-biggest export market. The most popular Canadian product is wood pulp that the Chinese use in their country's paper industry. StatsCan also reports that metals, fertilizers and organic chemical used to make polyester are also good sellers.
JACQUES CLÉMENT: REPORT ON THE ECONOMY
for Wed1253 (Mar 8th, 2006 )
INTERNATIONAL:
Euro>:: The European Central Bank increased its refinancing interest rate by ¼% to 2½% last week for the second increase in four months, its highest level in five years, as the economy is recovering nicely and as they are worrying about inflation (2.3%), given the higher energy costs, housing prices, transportation, education, tobacco and alcohol; telecom, clothing, recreation and culture have, nevertheless, declined. Business confidence has reached a new fourteen year high.
Japan: The world’s second largest economy has recovered strongly in the fourth quarter at 5.5% (annual rate) with strength in exports, business capital spending in machinery and equipment, consumer spending and consumer confidence at a fifteen year high and wages rising. There is speculation that Bank of Japan might end their five year monetary policy of holding interest rates near zero. I think that this may be premature (see November 23 write-up).
GLOBAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE:
The world trades over $2.4 trillion daily with Canada ranking tenth, with over $54 billion, preceded by the U.K. ($753 billion), U.S. ($461 billion), Japan ($200 billion), Singapore ($125 billion), Germany ($118 billion), Hong Kong ($102 billion), Australia and Switzerland ($80 billion) and France ($64 billion). Russia, with $30 billion daily turnover, has seen the fastest growth (212%) followed by India, 7 billion (+133%), Korea, $20 billion (+ 108%), Belgium, $20 billion (+ 98%), Spain and Taiwan (+85%) and U.S. (+82%). The next B.I.S. triennial Central Bank survey is due next year.
CANADA Bank of Canada tightened monetary policy yesterday for the fifth consecutive increase in seven months, by ¼% to 3¾% overnight rate, as the economy is running at full capacity and concerned that the Canadian dollar has exceeded their 85¢- 87¢ projection, they accompanied their decision with a more dovish statement that “some modest further increase in the policy interest rate may be required,” signalling that it is nearing the end of its tightening campaign. Beside the economic analysis provided last week, private and public capital spending is expected to remain robust in 2006 (+6%), with plant and equipment rising by over 8% (it rose by over 13% in the fourth quarter) and non-residential construction rose by over 12%, the best in eight years. Consumer confidence (February) remained steady against six months ago. Housing starts (February) eased almost 3% after rising 8% in the previous two months. New vehicle sales also fell. The Canadian dollar, after trading at 88½¢ U.S., a fourteen year high on March 2, has lost 2¢ U.S., as crude oil lost $3.85 U.S. this week so far and gold, $13.50 U.S., U.S. hedge funds and other speculation triggered stop-loss selling. The Bank of Canada statement yesterday and today’s weakness on housing starts triggered the selling. January trade surplus, February employment data, fourth quarter productivity and next week’s February C.P.I.., will carry a lot of weight on the dollar and stock market outlook.
Since January, 2003, the Canadian dollar has appreciated against all currencies (except the Brazilian real); against the U.S. dollar (+37%), the Euro (+21%), the pound (+27%), the Swiss franc (+30%), the Yen (+36%), the Australian dollar (+7½%) and 19.7% versus the Mexican peso.
UNITED STATES Since last week’s full economic analysis, this week, the manufacturing sector showed a mixed picture with the I.S.M. manufacturing index up sharply to a three month high, the thirty-second consecutive month of growth, but factory orders declined 4.5%, for the thirty-second consecutive month of growth, but factory orders declined 4.5% for the largest decline in five and a half years, after rising 5½% in the previous three months. Ex-transport orders rose by 1.6%, the best in five months. Despite rising energy prices and interest rates, large department store sales improved by 3.2% after rising 5% in January. Non-manufacturing services rose sharply in February. Michigan consumer sentiment plunged very sharply in February, similar to the Conference board survey. The Dow-Jones eased nearly 50 points this week despite the weaker energy prices, as the Federal Reserve is expected to tighten again on March 28 by ¼% to 4¾% on the way to 5%-5¼% before reaching neutrality. The January trade deficit and February employment data will be released before the close, Friday.
Wednesday, February 1, 2006 MARTIN_BARNES.pdf
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Wednesday 24 June 2009 OTTAWA: SINGLE SECURITIES REGULATOR NEARER
Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has announced the creation of a transition team that will establish a single national securities regulator. B.C. Securities Commission head Doug Hyndman will also head the transition team. The minister says that the creation of a single regulator has been one of the governing Conservative Party's priorities since being elected in January 2006. At present each of the 13 provinces and territories has its own regulator. Several of the provinces, including Quebec and Alberta, strenuously object to the concept which Mr. Flaherty insists is necessary to enable financial markets to operate efficiently.
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