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Monday Nov 24, 2003 ts BRONFMAN GROUP BUYING WARNER MUSIC
Edgar Bronfman Jr. and his backers have succeeded in their quest to
acquire Warner Music Group, buying the company for $2.6 billion in cash
from Time Warner.
Monday Nov 24, 2003 ts Virtual prosperity
In just 6 years, ING Direct has put $683 million in the pockets of its customers Now the virtual bank has its sights on the mort Six years after making its bright orange splash on the Canadian banking scene with higher-interest savings accounts — and paying out $683 million in interest — ING Direct is looking to shake things up again.
This time, the branchless bank's new chief executive has set her sights on poaching mortgage customers from the big banks that dominate the lucrative and low-risk market
Friday Sep 5, 2003 cbc MAD COW, BLACKOUT, FOREST FIRES TAKE TOLL ON ECONOMY: TD BANK
The impact of mad cow disease, the Ontario power blackout and the BC
forest fires will shave more than 1.5 percentage points off the annual
pace of economic growth in the third quarter, a TD Bank economist said
Thursday.
Sunday Jul 6, 2003 Dollar Pause In A Secular Bear
Oversold technical conditions and an improving investment backdrop point to a period of U.S. dollar stability.
The global economy’s reliance on the U.S. for demand growth means the U.S. current account deficit will continue to balloon, arguing for a secular bear market in the currency. However, the dollar is due for a consolidation and has shown signs of firming in the past week. On a technical basis, it is deeply oversold versus the euro and the commodity currencies. The U.S. dollar has tended to be correlated with swings in U.S. equity prices, as both react to changes in business sentiment. The S&P 500 index has been in an uptrend since the spring and its divergence from the dollar suggests a pause in the dollar’s slide should occur over the summer, especially once investors believe the Fed’s monetary medicine is working.
Thu 7/3/03 OTTAWA: ECONOMIC RESEARCHERS PREDICT DIFFICULT SUMMER
A group of independent economic researchers predicts that the
Canadian economy will go into a slump this summer. The Conference
Board of Canada says the rising value of the Canadian dollar in
trading against its U.S. counterpart will hurt exports to the U.S.,
Canada's biggest trading partner. The Board says growth will amount
to only 1.9 this year. That compares with its prediction last spring
of 2.7 per cent economic growth. However, the researchers also
predict that the Bank of Canada will respond to the slowdown by
lowering its trend-setting interest rate. They say this will reduce
the upward movement on the Canadian dollar by narrowing the gap
between the Bank's rate and the top U.S. interest rate. This, in
turn, will make the Canadian dollar less attractive to investors and
give a boost to exports. The Board warns that the biggest long-term
threat to the Canadian economy is the continuing economic stagnation
in the U.S.
Thursday Jun 19, 2003 globe Death and taxes by Mathew Ingram
5 bbc IMF forecasts 'inaccurate' The International Monetary Fund has a poor track record of successfully predicting financial crises, auditors have warned.
Saturday Jun 14, 2003 cbc FED SEES SIGNS OF SOME ECONOMIC RECOVERY
The U.S. Federal Reserve said Wednesday that the American economy may be
headed for a rebound, but the central bank cautioned that conditions are
still sluggish in most parts of the country.
Saturday Jun 14, 2003 cbc RAPID RISE OF LOONIE WILL HURT ECONOMY: DODGE
Bank of Canada governor David Dodge said the rapid rise in the Canadian
dollar will slow down economic performance through 2004.
Mon Jun 09 2003 bca Still No Debt Stress In The U.S.
Bank loan delinquency rates edged lower in the U.S. in the first quarter, confirming that debt burdens remain manageable.
There have been persistent concerns in recent years about excessive consumer and business debt. We have argued that worries about consumer debt were overstated, and the trend in loan delinquency rates supports our view. Delinquency rates are low and falling for mortgages, and cresting for other consumer loans, a remarkable performance given the weakness in the labor market. Even business loan delinquency rates are rolling over and are lower than the levels of the early 1990s’ recession. Rising interest rates could cause problems for those with large debt burdens, but that will not occur until after the economy is on a sound footing. Debt will not sink the U.S. economy.
Martin Barnes"The capacity-utilization rate is low, but that is just a measure of
manufacturing. It is a short-term problem, and there is no evidence it is a
structural problem."
June 2, 2003 An Interview With Martin Barnes -- With so many crosscurrents sending conflicting signals, we turned to a longtime FOB -- friend of Barron's, that is -- for a better read on the course of the economy. As managing editor of the Montreal-based Bank Credit Analyst, a newsletter forecasting investment and business trends published by BCA Research, Barnes has distinguished himself for his probing and bold analysis and clear, yet contrary, thinking. He also has a nice way with words. While not exactly dour, the Scotsman is concerned about the dollar, less so about deflation.
Monday, June 2, 2003 nyt WHAT TO WATCH
The Economy: Encouraging Signs
Encouraging economic reports helped the stock market climb last week. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 2.9 percent. The Nasdaq composite index jumped 5.7 percent. And the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index advanced 3.3 percent.
The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the economy grew faster in the first three months of this year than initially estimated. The gross domestic product, the nation's output of goods and services, increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the first quarter, revised up from the 1.6 percent growth that was reported in April.
Considering that the economy grew 1.4 percent in the previous quarter, the 1.9 percent figure may look somewhat encouraging. But most economists put the benchmark for economic growth at an annual rate of 3 percent. Forecasts for this quarter range from 1 percent to more than 2 percent, but not 3 percent. Even Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman who is regarded as an optimist, recently testified that second-quarter growth "is going to be quite soft."
So why the big gains in the stock market? For one, there was a string of upbeat earnings reports last week. And on the economic front, sales of homes continued to grow, an important gauge of consumer confidence hit a six-month high, and businesses expanded in Midwestern states in May for the first time since February. That last report also showed strong growth in Midwest manufacturing, a sector that has worried analysts.
There were still signs, however, that business investment remained weak. Orders for durable goods fell 2.4 percent in April, meaning that businesses have resisted spending on large items like machinery and vehicles. Consumer spending also fell by 0.1 percent in May, as shoppers worried about their jobs. But the bright spot was that personal-spending growth in March was revised to show a 0.8 percent increase, well above the initial 0.4 percent growth. That not only put April's slide in perspective, but also had analysts revising their economic growth forecasts upward for the second quarter.
Monday Jun 2, 2003 nyt Stock Yields Are Higher Than Interest Rates. So What?
Strategies: The dividend yield is higher than the yield on one-year Treasury notes for the first time in decades, but that doesn't mean that the stock market is undervalued.
... The current yield of the S.& P. 500, at 1.8 percent, is still well below levels that indicated a market top before the 1990's. But the yield is now higher than short-term interest rates for the first time in more than 40 years.
Wednesday May 28, 2003 cbc U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE UP IN MAY
U.S. consumer confidence rose moderately in May as job concerns replaced
the ebullient attitude that came with end of major fighting in Iraq in
April, the Conference Board said Tuesday.
"If investments are keeping you awake at night, sell down to the sleeping point." --Anonymous Wall Street saying
5/May/2003 20:38
Warren Buffet's profits soar
The investment wizard confirms his legendary ability to back the right businesses by doubling his company's profits.
Monday Mar 31, 2003 ec World economy
In its latest projections, the International Monetary Fund has again revised downwards its earlier forecasts. And most of the risks remain on the downside economist chart
Wednesday Apr 9, 2003
IMF faces wartime challenge
The IMF faces a challenging world economy with little prospect of international cooperation as it meets during the Iraq war.
Stock markets in the doldrums
European stock markets open sharply lower, as concerns over economic fundamentals outweigh cheer over military progress in Iraq.
Monday Mar 31, 2003 ec Risk management for the masses We have the financial technology, says Robert Shiller, to cope with growing economic risks .... It is true that, by some measures, world income inequality has been decreasing—notably because China and India have been catching up. But there are reasons to expect a longer-run tendency towards much greater inequality.
Wednesday Mar 19, 2003 cbc MARKETS ADD TO RALLY AS WAR DEADLINE DRAWS NEAR
Investors nudged North American markets to moderate advances Tuesday as
the world awaited an imminent U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.
Thu Mar 13, 2003 bca Equity Investor Sentiment: Bears In Full Force U.S. individual investors declaring themselves ‘bearish’ is at an extreme not seen since the depths of the 1990 recession.
The last time U.S. individual investors were this negative on stocks was over a decade ago, in the midst of the build up to the Gulf War, when the economy was in recession, oil prices were surging and stock prices were swooning. Although the series is volatile, extremely bearish sentiment usually coincides with a market low, i.e. provides a good contrarian signal that heralds a rise in equity prices. This time, we advise patience before buying, because investors will remain very risk-averse until geopolitical tensions subside. The latter is a necessary condition because delayed decision-making in the business sector risks pushing the economy back into recession.
Friday Mar 14, 2003 ts U.S. retail sales plunge in February
`It's somewhere between a bad and dismal report' New jobless claims suggest stagnant labour market ....The commerce department said yesterday retail sales plunged 1.6 per cent, the largest drop since November, 2001, and far worse than the 0.4 per cent dip expected by analysts. The report showed declines across a wide range of categories, from building materials to clothing and furniture.
Saturday Mar 1, 2003 cbc INFLATION JUMPS TO 11-YEAR HIGH; IMMINENT RATE HIKE SEEN
Canada's annual inflation rate jumped to 4.5 per cent in January -
its highest level in more than 11 years - with soaring energy costs
getting most of the blame for that increase.
Sunday Feb 23, 2003 ec The global economy Striving for co-operation
This weekend’s meeting of finance ministers from the G7 is a sign that global economic co-operation is still on the agenda for the world’s richest countries. But can they do more than talk? ec chart Cda tops
Monday Feb 17, 2003 Stocks Are Best Option for Beating Inflation
Economic View: The effect of inflation on investments and why that makes the stock market a better bet over the longer run.
Friday Feb 14, 2003 ec Far from stimulating
Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, criticised President George Bush's plans for tax cuts. He hinted that any such cuts should be matched by reductions in spending, rather than allowing a destabilising increase in the deficit; and he suggested that emergency stimulus might not be necessary if uncertainties over Iraq are cleared up.
Friday Feb 7, 2003
History lesson Shares will recover in the end, experts say
Market jitters
Friday Jan 31, 2003 ec How low could they go? The world's stockmarkets quivered as the threat of a war in Iraq intensified. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 8,000 for the first time since October 2002, before regaining ground; the FTSE 100 fell for 11 days in a row, to a seven-year low before a slight recovery; and European markets also sank. Adding to the gloom, America's economy was reported to have grown by only 0.7% at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2002, down from 4.0% in the third quarter.
Capital flight
America's most troubled media giant, AOLTime Warner announced the biggest-ever loss in American corporate history. After taking a $45.5 billion charge in the fourth quarter to write down the value of its America Online division, it reported a loss of $98.7 billion for 2002 as a whole. Ted Turner, the group's vice-chairman, also said that he would step down.
Shares in AMR, the parent company of America's biggest airline, American Airlines, fell to an all-time low. Investors fear the twin evils of looming bankruptcy and war.
Delta Air Lines, America's third carrier, unveiled plans to win back customers from low-cost airlines with the launch of its own no-frills service, Song. Song will begin serving east-coast routes in April.
Wednesday Jan 29, 2003 ec The state-of-the-union address
In his state-of-the-union address before Congress, George Bush sought to convince Americans—and the rest of the world—that he can get a grip on the faltering economy and that his hard line on Iraq is justified. Did he succeed?
Wednesday Jan 29, 2003 ec Iraq The case for war
After the weapons inspectors tell the UN Security Council that Iraq has not done enough to show it is genuine about disarmament, George Bush says America will provide new evidence about Saddam Hussein's illicit arms programmes
Jan 17, 2003 bca Global Leading Economic Indicator: Heading Up Improved odds for a better world economy point to a higher stock-to-bond ratio ahead.
Our 23-country Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) has turned up, raising the odds that activity should gradually start to firm. Policymakers around the globe have changed tack and are much more focused on stimulating growth. The deflation scare last autumn and chronic inability to sustain economic momentum in recent years has conditioned the authorities (and investors) to fear the worst. The bias to stay accommodative increases the chances for further gains in the LEI and, thus, the odds of a better global economy. High energy prices and geopolitical tensions will restrain activity, but conditions should gradually improve and the turnaround could be more vigorous than most expect IF these drags ease.
Thursday Jan 30, 2003
European leaders rally behind US The heads of several European countries break ranks with France and Germany and call for unity with the US over Iraq.
BAE Systems wins carrier deal UK defence giant BAE Systems gets the lead role in a £2.9bn contract to build two new aircraft carriers for the Royal Navy.
Mrs Simpson's secret lover revealed Wallis Simpson was having a love affair with a car dealer while in a relationship with the future Edward VIII, secret documents reveal.
Monday Jan 27, 2003
Leading shares keep falling Stock market gloom deepens, with the main share indexes in London, Paris and Frankfurt all falling heavily.
Short sharp war 'would lift economy' A short, successful war against Iraq would be better for the US economy than no war, according to the UK's Institute of Directors.
House prices falling in parts of UK London house prices are falling but other parts of the country are seeing rises, according to the property website Hometrack.
Friday Jan 10, 2003 TORONTO: OPTIMISM FELT ON YEAR'S ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
A public opinion poll indicates that a majority of Canadians are
confident that Canada's economy will improve in 2003. The survey by
the Pollara polling firm shows that 56 per cent of those asked
expressed that confidence. The poll was carried out last month. Only
one-half of that percentage said they were confident about the
economic prospects in a similar poll taken a year earlier. The CEO of
Pollara, Michael Marzolini, said the earlier survey was conducted at
a time when Canadians felt pessimistic and despairing because of the
Sept. 11 attacks. Mr. Marzolini says Canadians then feared the
economy was shaky, that consumer spending represented a risk and that
job security was threatened. The chief economist of the Bank of Nova
Scotia, Warren Jestin, reacted to the latest poll results with a note
of caution, saying an eventual war with Iraq and continued volatility
of stock markets could cause the current optimism to melt.
Thursday Jan 2, 2003
US bankruptcies break records Corporate failures reached an all-time high in 2002, a year in which WorldCom, United Airlines and Global Crossing collapsed. see Enron
Euro makes anniversary rebound The euro has ended 2003 at its highest level for more than three years as fears of a US war against Iraq undermine the dollar. see Euro
Sept. 18, 2001 Welcome to the E-world by Dr. Hans Black"While the Internet was obviously an incredible opportunity to hype a new technology, it was also a genuine breakthrough in communications that continues to fulfill its potential." Dr. Hans Black, Interinvest Review & Outlook, differentiates between the absurd valuations technology stocks once commanded and the enduring potential of the technology itself.
April 30, 2001 The Myth of Shareholder Value The check is in the mail. I gave at the office. This merger will increase shareholder value.
OK, so maybe that last one hasn't made it into the pantheon of biggest lies just yet. But judging from the numbers put up by high-profile telecom industry mergers and acquisitions struck over the past five years, it should be well on its way to the Hall of Great Untruths.
BBC
forecasts in pdf
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Virtual prosperity
![[Martin Barnes]](http://219.106.225.76/Photo06/125307/50/1153015.jpg)
Risk management for the masses
INFLATION JUMPS TO 11-YEAR HIGH; IMMINENT RATE HIKE SEEN
The global economy Striving for co-operation 
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