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Jock McBile shares his thoughts on the stock market, Canadian dollar, teenagers arrested for counterfeiting, Starbucks moving into Quebec, Canada's weather service and Heather Reisman.
Back to Most Recient Monery Notes
February 2001
Wed 2/28/01 7:00 PM
CANADIAN ECONOMY BARELY GREW IN DECEMBER
The Canadian economy grew in December, but only by 0.2 per cent, as
weakness continued in the manufacturing sector.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/02/28/CanuckGDP_010228
Wed 2/28/01 7:00 PM
BUSH ADDRESSES CONGRESS WITH FOLKSY OPTIMISM
George W. Bush turned on his folksy charm on Tuesday night as he
addressed Congress for the first time since becoming president of the
United States, delivering a speech full of optimism.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/02/28/bush_speech010228
26/Feb/2001
U.S. ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN 'YET TO RUN ITS FULL COURSE', GREENSPAN SAYS
U.S. stock markets stumbled Wednesday as they interpreted remarks from
U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan to mean it is now much less
likely that the Fed will cut interest rates before its next scheduled
policy meeting March 20.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/02/28/greenspan_010228
26/Feb/2001 What is NETFILE?
By Lucienne Robillard, MP for Westmount-Ville Marie
NETFILE is the newest electronic tax-filing option from the Canada Customs and Revenue Agency. It will be available to most Canadians for the 2000 tax-filing season. This program allows Canadians to file their 2000 income tax and benefit returns using the Internet.
Fri 2/23/01 7:02 AM What's the worry?
In his maiden speech this week, new Bank of Canada governor David Dodge sought to reassure Canadians that the economy is in good health, despite signs of weakness in some critical sectors. Yes, demand for cars and telecommunications equipment has weakened,Mr. Dodge said, but "in the rest of the economy, employment is high and demand is strong. So, what's the worry?"
That's a good question. Confidence in the economy can be a fragile thing. Sometimes, if you think you're going to catch a cold, you do. If enough people start believing we're headed for a recession, then maybe we'll actually have one. Such fears can lead consumers to stop spending, businesses to stop ordering from their suppliers and employers to let workers go. Once that spiral starts, an economic downturn can pick up speed - unless, of course, we talk ourselves out of it before the worst happens.
Sat 2/24/01 8:32 AM Chapters Online directors might sue after bid dropped
Independent directors of Chapters Online are considering legal action against parent company Chapters Inc. because the book retailer withdrew its bid yesterday to buy back outstanding shares of the Internet retailing unit.
Chapters said it couldn't go through with the bid after failing to get backing for the deal from its bankers and creditors. But the independent directors of Chapters Online disagree and say Chapters Inc. doesn't need creditor approval for the deal to go through.
Sat 2/24/01 8:32 AM Royal's Cleghorn is retiring
By: DON MACDONALD
John Cleghorn has always prided himself on pursuing a sound, quiet stewardship of the Royal Bank of Canada, and he kept to that low-key approach yesterday when he announced he will end a 27-year bank career by retiring at the end of July.
Cleghorn, the bank's chief executive and chairman who will be best remembered for the failed merger with the Bank of Montreal, noted simply that he will leave Canada's largest bank in better shape than when he took over the top job six years ago.
Thu 2/22/01 7:00 PM
CANADIAN INVESTORS OFFERED NEW LOW-COST EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
Investors looking to track the movements of the TSE's main indices have
some new options with the launch of a trio of new exchange-traded funds
(ETF) this week. Trading in TD Asset Management's TD TSE 480 Index Fund TTF and the TD TSE 480 Capped Index Fund TCF will begin Friday. Barclays' iunits new S&P/TSE 60 Capped Index Fund XIC
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/02/22/exchangefund_010222
February 23, 2001 Webcaster plugs into conference calls Q1234 broadcasts, archives firms' financial data Zena Olijnyk Financial PostJeff Wasserman, National Post Michael Donovan of Salter Street Films, which owns Q1234: Webcasting events for investors.Q1234.com will not eliminate the traditional analy ...
Thu 2/22/01 8:00 PM FIGHT FOR FREER TRADE, BLAIR URGES OTTAWA
Dismissing criticism of free trade as misguided, British Prime Minister
Tony Blair called for stronger ties between his country and Canada
during a rare speech on Parliament Hill Thursday.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/02/22/blair012202
Wed 2/21/01 7:00 PM RISE IN U.S. CPI LARGER THAN EXPECTED
Consumer prices in the United States surged a greater-than-expected 0.6
per cent in January. And that led to immediate speculation that the U.S.
Federal Reserve will not be cutting interest rates before it meets late
next month. cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/02/21/uscpi010221
February 19, 2001 Davos meeting; IMF Board confers with UN ambassadors; China quota; IMF ethics, financial disclosure guidelines; sovereign bond restructurings; US economic policy options; Turkey program; Emerging Market Financing; and evaluating reserve adequacy.
Mon 2/19/01 7:03 AM Who's irrational now?
By: WILLIAM WATSON Freelance
Uh-oh. Last week the Bank of Canada revised its forecast of economic growth for this year downward from between 3 and 4 per cent to 3 per cent. And then this week it revised it downward again, from 3 per cent to "3 per cent or just below." So in a little more than a week we've come from the possibility of 4-per-cent growth to the likelihood of just under 3. Another few weeks like the last two and we'll all be living on snow.
In part, the growing economic gloom on this side of the border is heartening. It's certainly preferable to all the cheery talk we've been hearing about how we might come through a U.S. recession more or less unscathed. The old saw about how when the Americans sneeze we catch pneumonia has never really been true, but if they come down with a heavy cold, it's hard to understand how, living cheek by jowl with them, we won't catch it, too.
Mon 2/19/01 7:03 AM Invest in your staff
By: SHEILA McGOVERN The Gazette
Time and time again, managers say their most important resource is their staff. Yet a new study done by the Ivey School of Business at the University of Western Ontario suggests Canadian companies don't put enough effort into deciding who those employees will be.
After surveying 141 firms, John Eggers and Nancy Roberts concluded most Canadian employers stick to three approaches when hiring staff. ...: "In a panic, we hire anybody who looks good at the time."
...most employers can improve the quality of their people by 30 to 50 per cent if they would invest a little more time and money in the selection process. ...ask them to describe a situation in which they achieved something very difficult.
16/Feb/2001 22:44 THE $44-BILLION NORTEL SELL-OFF see cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/02/16/nortel2_010216
16/Feb/2001 HALTED TRAINS BACK ON TRACK
Officials from Canadian National Railways are re-opening the rail line
between Quebec City and Montreal. A train carrying wheat derailed on
Thursday, when 24 cars came off the rail and almost 1,000 metres of
track had to be replaced or repaired.
16/Feb/2001 TEAM CANADA DEAL BOOM FOR DRUMMONDVILLE
Team Canada has negotiated the first investment by a state-run Chinese
business in Quebec and the money is going to Drummondville, Que.
Fri 2/16/01 7:32 AM Canadian telecoms feel heat in Brazil
By: ANDY RIGA The Gazette
Canada's ban on Brazilian beef is making life uncomfortable for some Canadian-based telecommunications companies with extensive operations in the South American country.
Brazil's communications minister called officials of the three - Nortel Networks Corp., Telesystem International Wireless Inc. and Bell Canada International Inc. - to a meeting last week to express his anger over the ban.
Thu 2/15/01 7:00 PM INFLATION RATE DROPPED IN JANUARY
The national inflation rate dropped last month, Statistics Canada
announced on Thursday.
Thu 2/15/01 6:53 AM Recession? Not in Quebec's stores
By: JAY BRYAN
Because it can take quite a while before economic statistics catch up with reality, it hasn't been unusual in the past for a recession to be under way for months before businesspeople and consumers were aware it.
For some of those who unwittingly committed to expand a business or buy a bigger house as the last recession was beginning in 1990, this delayed warning led to a painful financial squeeze
14/Feb/2001 Canadian Pacific (CP - $57.15) Recommendation: 2-Buy Target: $70.00
We have increased our 1-year target on Canadian Pacific (CP) to $70.00 from $56.00 following the company's announcement of its restructuring plan. CP plans to distribute its interests in five separate businesses to CP shareholders. CP will retain CP Hotels as its primary asset. The transaction is expected to be tax efficient with an investor's adjusted cost base on their CP shares being allocated pro rata among the five businesses based on their market value at the time of distribution. We favour CP due to its strong fundamentals, the strategic nature of its assets (including CP Rail and PanCanadian Petroleum), and the fact that the stock trades at a 14% discount to our current net asset value of $66.29 per share. We believe that the proposed restructuring has a high likelihood of being approved with a completion date in early fall. Approximately 80% of CP's value is comprised by CP Rail (100%-owned) and PanCanadian Petroleum (86%-owned). Both of these companies are leaders in industries experiencing consolidation. As such, we see additional future upside potential were either company to be acquired. We recommend that existing holders of CP maintain exposure to the stock given the possibility for additional upside from a narrowing of the holding company discount. We also recommend CP for new money commitments given its positive outlook. - D. Daniels
Wed 2/14/01 7:00 PM MICROSOFT BEING INVESTIGATED OVER COREL INVESTMENT
The U.S. Justice Department is looking into Microsoft's recent
investment in Canadian software developer Corel to see if it could
result in a lessening of competition. cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/02/14/corel010214
11/Feb/2001 Housing industry shows economy is far from dead
By: JAY BRYAN
As dark clouds gather over many parts of the economy, prompting Canadians to wonder if we're headed for the first recession in nearly a decade, Jose Di Bona has a very different problem.
A residential developer with two projects active in Montreal, Di Bona is being run off his feet by would-be customers.
11/Feb/2001 Pyramid-builders in a wired world
By: NEIL CAMERON
Premier Bouchard, shortly before his recent audience with the pope, made a brief comment in Italy implying that he did not relish the prospect of increasing control of Quebec business by outside owners, but also did not see how much could be done about it: Quebec could scarcely expect open markets in the western hemisphere and Europe for its own wide-reaching businesses such as Bombardier and Quebecor, while trying to block entrants coming from the opposite direction.
This is much of the case for free trade in a nutshell, and it does not come only from Bouchard's experience with the Mulroney Conservatives. In fact, while free trade continues to be bitterly attacked by the tattered remnants of the political left, it has been the largest public issue of the last two decades that has received majority support from both French-speaking and English-speaking Quebecers, and from both federalists and separatists.
9/Feb/2001 WAVE OF RATE CUTS HEARD AROUND THE GLOBE
The trend began in early January when the U.S. Federal Reserve,
acknowledging the slowdown in the American economy, cut its key interest
rate by half a percentage point. A few weeks later, fed chairman Alan
Greenspan did it again and cut the rate a further half point to 5.5 per
cent. cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/02/09/interest_rates010209
9/Feb/2001 JAPAN RATE CUT TO BOLSTER ECONOMY
For the first time in half a decade, the central bank in Japan cut its
key interest rate on Friday.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/02/09/japan_economy010209
9/Feb/2001 OSC FINES INVESTMENT MANAGER 'SCOUNDREL' $82,500
The Ontario Securities Commission has fined portfolio manager Andrew
Willman $82,500 for what it called "a complete lack of concern" for his
clients, and has banned him from ever trading securities again.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/02/09/osc2010209
7/Feb/2001 Consumer restraint will spark recession in Canada: S&P chief
By: DON MACDONALD
The head of Standard & Poor's Canadian bond-rating service predicted yesterday that a consumer-led recession is now in the cards for the economy this year.
Brian Neysmith, S&P's managing director (Canadian ratings), said he foresees "a typical recession" with a decline in economic growth for two quarters and then a slow recovery.
6/Feb/2001 Stock market bets on North America's economy
By: JAY BRYAN The Gazette
While it certainly isn't infallible, the stock market offers one of the best hints, in an uncertain world, of where the economy will be headed six months in the future.
The reason it works is that investors try very hard to discern the future prospects for the companies whose shares they own. They have a strong incentive, because those who succeed most often tend to get rich. They buy before others have figured out that an upturn is coming and sell first before a downturn. Such bets on the future by investors are brought together by the indexes that track prices in the stock market.
February 5, 2001 Capital adequacy requirements; El-Erian on capital markets; Schinasi on OTC derivatives; Corden on exchange regimes in developing countries; Sir Alan Whittome; Fischer on globization & Africa; technical assistance; and emerging markets & global finance.
5/Feb/2001 Keep on your toes when using credit
By: RITA MONACO-MANCINI Freelance
An increasing number of credit-card holders are conscientiously paying their account balances in full and on time. This means banks and other credit-card issuers are seeing their profits decrease or not growing fast enough.
So they're coming up with interesting ways to make up for their loss and credit-card users who overspend or lose track of when payments are due end up paying more than they should.
Friday 2 February 2001 We're not sinking yet
By: L. IAN MACDONALD
The difficulty in dealing with a recession - two consecutive quarters of negative growth - is that you don't know whether you're in one until you're more than halfway through it.
"It's a statistical thing," Chris Green was saying in his office at McGill University, where he is chairman of the economics department. "Someone had to come up with a measurement to answer the question, 'What do you mean by a recession?' "
Friday 2 February 2001 Air Canada retrenches
By: SARAH DOUGHERTY
Squeezed by spiraling fuel costs, competition from low-cost carriers and a rapidly slowing U.S. economy, Air Canada plans to cut routes and frequencies and get rid of old planes.
Air Canada president Robert Milton said the sudden shift in momentum - which saw the airline rack up fourth-quarter operating losses of $394 million - call for radical measures.
1/Feb/2001 AIR CANADA HUNKERS DOWN AS LOSSES SOAR
Canada's dominant airline, Air Canada, has reported a fourth-quarter
loss of $274 million, or $2.28 a share, and a loss of $82 million for
the fiscal year. The airline, now with former rival Canadian Airlines
under its wing, said it suffered from the soaring cost of jet fuel and a
slowdown in travel has it bracing for more stormy weather ahead.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/02/01/diamnods_010201
1/Feb/2001 19 trades
By: DON MACDONALD The Gazette
Investors showed little immediate interest yesterday for a new product the Montreal Exchange is pinning hopes on to generate much-needed growth.
Futures on Nortel stock traded just 19 contracts on their first day. Each contract represents 100 shares of Nortel, meaning that the underlying stock volume was only 1,900 shares. By contrast, more than 8 million Nortel shares changed hands on the Toronto Stock Exchange yesterday
1/Feb/2001 Here's to a healthy economy and a 70-cent loony
By: JAY BRYAN The Gazette
Just as another chilly draft of discouraging economic news blows across the Canadian landscape, one of the country's leading forecasters is proffering the cheery prediction that both the economy and the lowly loony will look healthier before the year gets much older.
The prediction comes from David Rosenberg, chief Canadian economist with U.S. brokerage giant Merrill Lynch & Co. Happily, it comes just as the confidence of Canadian economy-watchers is being jolted by the latest official report on economic growth.
Money January 2001
click for our archives for more
30/Jan/2001 Don't discount passenger benefits of merger
By: JAY BRYAN The Gazette
The takeover of one company by another in the same business can often be bad news for customers. That's because a frequent motivation for such acquisitions is a desire to reduce competition and then raise prices.
But that's not always the case. Indeed, it might well be good news for air travelers that one discount airline, Canada 4800 Inc. of Toronto, has arranged an $84-million takeover of the strongest rival in eastern Canada inhabiting the same market niche, Royal Aviation Inc. of Montreal.
16/Jan/2001 Recession? Many analysts don't buy it
By: JAY BRYAN The Gazette
Boy, that might have been the shortest recession in history. Cancel the order for canned goods and survival gear.
We refer, of course, to the dire news that arrived just last week from two of the leading voices in the economics trade, Stephen Roach of New York's Morgan Stanley and Jeffrey Rubin of Toronto's CIBC World Markets.
Perhaps most noteworthy, the International Bank Credit Analyst, a Montreal publication not known for irrational exuberance, says the unreasoning optimism of last year has given way to unreasoning pessimism, creating attractive opportunities for investors to tiptoe back into many global stock markets, with the U.S. and Canada likely to outperform most others.
Since the Bank Credit Analyst stable of publications has spent the past two years warning investors (correctly) about the dangers of inflated stock prices, particularly in the U.S, this shift toward optimism will carry substantial weight among conservative investors.
see for Year 2000 Time Line
December 2000
click for our archives
Tue 12/26/00 6:54 AM New-economy executives going the way of the mayfly?
The average tenure of corporate leaders is shrinking, a new study finds, with much of the decline attributed to brief stints for leaders of the new economy.
Over the past two years, the median length of service among U.S. managers has fallen to seven years from 11, according to a survey of 3,000 discharged executives by Challenger Gray and Christmas. In 1990, the normal tenure of senior managers was 13 years.
23/Dec/2000 Looking past the bumps
It's been a rough-and-tumble year for equity markets in Canada and the U.S., with the technology sector showing particular volatility. Gazette reporters Paul Delean and Don MacDonald met three Canadian mutual-fund managers recently to discuss the year and prospects for 2001.
-Sharon Ranson, vice-president (Canadian equities) for TAL Global Asset Management.
22/Dec/2000 Independence at the bank
The new Bank of Canada governor, David Dodge, faces some stern tests when he takes over next month as the country's top central banker. An economic slowdown in the United States has already begun. There is an ongoing debate about the weakness of the Canadian dollar vs. the U.S. dollar, and about whether some form of common or fixed currency should be considered.
At the top of Mr. Dodge's challenges will be to allay concerns his appointment signifies a loss of independence at the bank. (He was named to the post this week by Finance Minister Paul Martin as a replacement for Gordon Thiessen, who is retiring.)
22/Dec/2000 Bellini to bag $254 million
By: SHEILA McGOVERN The Gazette
Shire Pharmaceutical Group's generous offer for BioChem Pharma would leave Francesco Bellini with no company to run, but a lot of money to spend in his spare time.
Bellini, one of the founders of the Laval-based wunderkind of the biotechnology industry, holds 2.9 million shares of the company and has options on 3 million others.
Notes for November 2000
click for our archives
30/Nov/2000 Stock meltdown might not portend economic one
By: JAY BRYAN The Gazette
The stock market is starting to look a little scary, and the latest news from the larger economy doesn't seem to offer much solace. Nevertheless, there are more than a few analysts who believe that all will end well.
How can this be? After all, the Nasdaq high-tech index has fallen more than 45 per cent from its peak in March.
30/Nov/2000 CANADIAN GDP GROWS AT TWICE THE RATE OF U.S.
Statistics Canada reported third-quarter growth of 4.8 per cent,
compounded annually. That's double the U.S. rate of 2.4 per cent
announced Wednesday.
on Wednesday-Night 22 November 2000 20:00h we will have Larry Macdonald on his Book Nortel .. See our
Nortel Networks page and Archives for history Also see our Nortel NT chart
JAY BRYAN |
13/Nov/2000POWER CORP. BUYS THREE HOLLINGER DAILIES
Power Corp. added more newspapers to its holdings on Friday after buying
the UniMedia division of Hollinger Inc.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2000/11/10/power001110
2/Nov/2000 Nortel NT reassures investors
Canadian tech giant, Nortel said it expects to grow in the range of 40
per cent in both revenues and earnings per share for this year.
Benard Landry & JAY BRYAN on
The Mosel Vitelic Inc. Taiwanese Memory Chip Plant?
$3-billion factory 1,500 jobs and 6,500 indirect jobs
But what if, in the next down draft, they fail... is the risk too hig
16/Nov/2000
Pease note our sell on Nortel NT September 6th at $84us see chart
Tue Oct 31 09:22:23 2000
Canada's gross domestic product grew by 0.4 per cent in August, higher
than the 0.3 per cent that analysts were expecting.
Thursday 14 September 2000 Westmount a national historic site: study ... About two-thirds of Westmount buildings, including the Church of St.
Leon de Westmount, the site of this weekend's wedding of Caroline
Mulroney and Alexander Andrew Lapham, are considered to be of
exceptional heritage quality, featuring unusual architectural and
landscaping designs, said Joanne Poirier, director of Westmount's
building and planning department.
Back to Most Recient Monery Notes
STEPHEN JARISLOWSKY
The worm has turned. Reality, to the extent that stock-market emotions
permit, has briefly returned.
The high-tech bubble is gradually coming apart. First, it was the demise of
the dot-coms - San Francisco entrepreneurs are joining the ranks of the
unemployed. Next to fall was the computer industry, and now, it is extending
more and more to the whole sector..
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