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finance.yahoo.com/ | the globeandmail business/calendars/economic
2002
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Wednesday Jul 24, 2002 Europe
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Investors desert shares
Investors rush to sell their stocks at the opening of the US markets, following on from steep declines across Europe.
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Tuesday Jul 23, 2002 nyt QUOTE OF THE DAY
"We will all remember the summer of 2002 and laugh. I'm in this for the long haul."
MARY VOLL,an investor.
Monday Jul 22, 2002 ec WORLDCOM CEO HOPES TO AVOID BREAKUP OF COMPANY
The CEO of WorldCom - which filed the biggest bankruptcy protection
case in U.S. corporate history on Sunday - said he hopes to avoid a
massive sell off of the beleaguered company's assets.
Monday Jul 22, 2002 ec WorldCom
WorldCom, the giant American telecoms firm that admitted a massive accounting fraud, has filed for bankruptcy protection. The firm’s hopes of a rescue are pinned on selling parts of the business to other companies, but the whole industry faces problems and is short of cash
Monday Jul 22, 2002 ec America’s economy
With stockmarkets world-wide sunk in gloom, so much now depends on the American economy. Is it doing as well as Alan Greenspan, the head of America’s central bank, has claimed? Or is a continuing slide in share prices about to undermine growth? economist charts
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Monday Jul 22, 2002
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WorldCom 'no idea' yet of audit gap
Scandal-hit telecoms giant WorldCom applies for bankruptcy protection in the largest case of insolvency in US corporate history.
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No net effects in WorldCom woe
The web will not slow down and your e-mail take longer to arrive now that WorldCom has gone into bankruptcy protection.
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Monday Jul 22, 2002 NEW YORK (CNN/Money)
WorldCom files largest bankruptcy ever
Nation's No. 2 long-distance company in Chapter 11 -- largest with $107 billion in assets.
- WorldCom, the nation's No. 2 long distance phone company, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection late Sunday, nearly one month after it revealed that it had improperly booked $3.9 billion in expenses.
Monday Jul 22, 2002 rci
UNITED STATES,br>
WorldCom said it will file Chapter 11 bankruptcy
protection on Sunday in what will be the largest
insolvency in United States history. The
long-distance telephone and data services company
is buckling under an accounting scandal and huge
debts. WorldCom has 85,000 employees and
operations in 65 countries. It aims to emerge
from Chapter 11 protection in nine to 12 months.
The company expects to hire a restructuring
expert within the next two weeks to aid the
current management team. WorldCom disclosed last
month that it improperly accounted for almost 4
billion dollars in expenses and fired its former
chief financial officer, Scott Sullivan. Its
former chief executive, Bernie Ebbers, resigned
under pressure in April. WorldCom has been
charged with fraud by the Securities and Exchange
Commission. The bankruptcy is twice as large as
Enron's record-setting filing in December.
Worldcom reported more than $100 billion in
assets at the end of March but is burdened by $30
billion in debt.
Wednesday Jul 17, 2002 nyt QUOTE OF THE DAY
"I have no confidence in recommending an individual stock to somebody. It isn't because of what I know. It's because of what I don'tknow." JIM HARTMAN,a financial adviser for nine years.
Wednesday Jul 17, 2002 nyt Corporate Wrongdoing Is the Focus on Two Fronts
The Fed chairman blamed "infectious greed" for the breakdown in investor confidence as the House passed a bill that would toughen criminal fraud penalties.
Wednesday Jul 17, 2002 nyt The Cycles of Financial Scandal
By KEVIN PHILLIPS The nation's attitude toward business is changing, but meaningful reform can be difficult, in part because the big wealth momentum booms leave behind a triple corruption: financial, political and philosophic.
Friday Jul 12, 2002 cbc
U.S. RETAIL SALES UP, BUT CONSUMER SENTIMENT PLUNGES
Optimism over better-than-expected U.S. retail sales in June was
tempered on Friday by weaker consumer sentiment figures.
Mon Jun 24 2002 bca Equity Ownership In The U.S. Is Too High
Equity ownership is still at bubble levels and investors will increasingly decide to rebalance portfolios .
It was reported last week that the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (Calpers - the largest pension fund in the U.S.) is planning to make an asset allocation switch out of equities and into direct investment in private companies. The Calpers move is likely to be followed by others because the cult of equity is in retreat and exposure to equities is still extremely high for both financial institutions and households. Disillusionment with equities is bound to increase because expected returns are still too high. This will encourage investors to diversify into other assets and real estate could be a big beneficiary
Friday Jun 14, 2002 bca Is Wall Street Primed For A Bounce?
Oversold conditions and bearish sentiment point to at least a temporary rally in U.S. equities
The grinding bear market in stocks has led to increasing gloom on the part of individual investors and traders in recent weeks. In contrast, investment advisors had remained relatively upbeat, but they are also now throwing in the towel with the percentage of bulls dropping to 42.9%, down from an average of over 52% in the previous three months. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has declined 11% in the past 13 weeks, approaching the momentum extremes that marked major bottoms in late 1998 and last September. These trends suggest that the market should have a bounce, but it will require a stream of good earnings news to sustain a rally.
Thu Jun 13, 2002 U.S. Mountain Of Cash: Staying On The Sidelines
The poor performance of the U.S. equity market has kept investors nervous and recently has caused holdings in money market funds to climb further .
The assets of retail and institutional money market funds remain near a 20-year high relative to equity market capitalization. The plunge short-term interest rates means that investors are making almost no return on this mountain of cash. Nevertheless, economic uncertainty, accounting scandals and a growing disenchantment with corporate America are keeping investors' wary of stocks. Sentiment probably will not revive until there is conviction that the economy is improving, i.e. corporate guidance needs to first improve. Instead, interest in alternative investments (such as housing) may remain the main beneficiary of investors seeking higher returns.
Friday Jun 14, 2002 ec
The stockmarket
Doubts about the valuation of American shares have led to jitters on stockmarkets the world over. America’s economic growth and productivity both seem to be strong. However, investors are worried about the size of the current-account deficit, and its implications for the value of the dollar economist chart
Tuesday Jun 11, 2002 cbc
DODGE CALLS FOR MORE FINANCIAL TRANSPARENCY TO RESTORE INVESTOR CONFIDENCE
Investors need better information, better behaviour, and more disclosure
if their trust in corporate Canada is to be maintained, Bank of Canada
governor David Dodge said Tuesday.
>NATIONAL BANK SNAPS UP ALTAMIRA
National Bank is buying Altamira Financial Services, one of the biggest and best-known
independent mutual fund companies in Canada.
May 30, 2002 Productivity and Living Standards: Convergence or Divergence? | 
video
Round Table discussions with Serge Coulombe, University of Ottawa; Andrei Sulzenko, Industry Canada; Gordon Thiessen, Former Governor of the Bank of Canada; Paul-Arthur Huot, Quebec Manufacturers & Exporters; and the moderator: Dr. Hans Black, Interinvest Corporation.
Tuesday Jun 11, 2002 Inco Ltd. (N - $34.56) Recommendation: 3-Hold Target: $40.00
Inco Strikes a Deal on Voisey's Bay
Inco announced that it has finally reached an agreement with the Government of Newfoundland to develop the Voisey's Bay nickel deposit. The agreement is still subject to approval by Newfoundland's legislature. Inco expects to break ground on the project sometime in July. Inco purchased Vosiey's Bay in 1996 for about $4.0 billion, but until now, had failed to reach an agreement with the government on processing of ore from the mine. Under the new arrangement, Inco will be allowed to ship ore out of the province until a new processing facility is up and running in Newfoundland. Inco will look for someone to take a 25% stake in the project to help fund development costs that could exceed a $1 billion. We currently value the Voisey's Bay project at U$3.20/share (C$5.00/share). Inco owns the only two major nickel projects to come on stream in the foreseeable future. This is a positive development for Inco that is fully reflected in our estimates and valuation for the company. –– John M. Redstone
Monday Jun 10, 2002 cbc
CANADA'S JOBLESS RATE TICKS UP TO 7.7 PER CENT
The number of Canadians with jobs went up in May for the fifth month in
a row. But that didn't prevent the country's unemployment rate from
creeping up a tenth of a percentage point last month to 7.7 per cent,
Statistics Canada reported Friday.
Saturday Jun 8, 2002
TORONTO: CORPORATE TAKEOVER DEBATE RAGES ON
Debate continues in Canada about whether foreign
takeovers of Canadian corporations are hurting
the country's economy. The investment firm
Merrill Lynch Canada says those who think this is
so are wrong. A Merrill Lynch economist, David
Rosenberg, says there's no evidence to support
the theory that foreign takeovers have hurt
Canada's financial and economic performance. Mr.
Rosenberg notes that Canada's economy grew by an
average rate of 3.6 per cent between 1999 and
2001. This compares with an average growth rate
of 2.2 per cent for the six other G-7 nations.
Mr. Rosenberg's views contrast with those offered
last month by the CEO of the Royal Bank, Gordon
Nixon, who claimed that 62 major Canadian
corporations representing 27 per cent of the
value of the Toronto Stock Exchange Composite
Index have disappeared in foreign mergers or
takeovers. Mr. Nixon and others claim the loss of
corporate head offices hurts domestic banks and
brokerage companies. But Mr. Rosenberg says this
hasn't happened, and that almost $14 billion of
common and preferred shares were issued by
Canadian firms in the first quarter of the year,
compared with only $3 billion raised in foreign
markets.
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Friday Jun 7, 2002 Business
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UK interest rates left on hold
Bank of England chiefs keep interest rates at 4.0%, following warnings over the health of UK manufacturers.
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Judges overturn Airtours merger veto
My Travel, formerly Airtours, wins its appeal over Brussels' 1999 veto of its buyout of First Choice, but the deal is now long dead.
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Foreigners flee US economy
Foreign investment into the US plunged by 60% during 2001, as firms feared recession and the aftermath of the US terrorist attacks.
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Monday Jun 3, 2002 Chrétien last detail close Friday at 65.45 cents US
Thursday May 30, 2002 ec
STRONG GDP GROWTH MAKES INTEREST RATE HIKE MORE LIKELY
The Canadian economy surged in the first quarter this year, propelled by
the country's hot housing market, Statistics Canada reported Friday.
Analysts say the growth figures make it virtually certain the Bank of
Canada will boost interest rates when it makes its next policy
announcement June 4.
Time is Money
Monday May 27, 2002 Rates Up soon detail
Friday May 24, 2002 see Gold 27-MONTH HIGH detail
Thursday May 23, 2002 cbc
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS UP IN APRIL
Canada's economy continued to show signs of strength as Statistics
Canada said its composite leading indicator gained 1.2 per cent in
April. That followed a 1.3 per cent increase in March, representing the
best back-to-back advance in the statistical indicator in nearly 20
years.
Tuesday May 21, 2002 U.S. Bond Investors: No Panic, Yet
U.S. Treasury yields have more upside, based on institutional sentiment readings .
The Stone & McCarty survey of U.S. bond institutions shows a considerable drop in optimism since late 2001, as measured by the average portfolio duration. This measure lags market trends and should be seen as a contrary indicator: reaching extremes at, or just after, important market turning points. The current message is that the typical pessimism that prevails at important yield peaks does not exist: investors do not yet have conviction in the sustainability of the economic recovery and, thus, are downplaying any inflation threat. Consequently, we expect higher yields in the months ahead.
Wed May 15, 2002 Central European Strategy: Take Profits In Equities
Our Emerging Markets Strategy (EMS) service recommends taking profits in the Hungarian and Czech equity markets .
The EMS recommended Hungarian and Czech stocks in November as the disinflation trend was expected to allow the central banks to cut interest rates. This theme has played out, as strong currencies and falling inflation have allowed the central banks to ease, and these trades have returned more than 30% in U.S. dollar terms. However, the underlying environment is gradually shifting. The currency outlook is slipping and a slow transition toward monetary tightening could develop in the coming months. The export sector could do well in this scenario, but the overall stock market could weaken. Investors should now protect gains.
Thu May 16, 2002 Hong Kong Stocks: Technical Breakout Looming?
Watch for a breakout above 12,000 in the Hang Seng Index .
Our China Investment Strategy service has been long Hong Kong stocks, and the market has outperformed global indexes. The weak U.S. dollar and decreasing regional deflationary pressures are positive for Hong Kong. Importantly, the Hang Seng Index is close to breaking above a key technical level of 12,000. This was a critical support level during the post-1997 crisis rally, but has become a major resistance level since the market bottomed last September. A move above 12,000 would mark a significant technical breakout.
Monday May 20, 2002 CANADIAN TRADE SURPLUS FALLS TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE OCTOBER
OTTAWA - Canada's trade balance fell by $376 million in March
to $4.4 billion, the lowest level since October 2001. The
larger-than-expected 7.9 per cent drop from February was due to
falling exports to most of Canada's biggest trading partners.
Canadian companies exported $33.2 billion in goods, down 2 per
cent from February, making it the largest monthly rate of
decline in five months. Machinery and equipment exports, which
account for 22.3 per cent of total exports, fell by $630.2
million. Imports of merchandise fell at half the pace of exports
to $28.8 billion, a 1 per cent decrease from February. As a
result, Canada's overall trade surplus fell for the second
consecutive month. The trade surplus with the United States –
Canada's top trading partner – fell by $229 million to $7.4
billion. Canadian companies sent $28.3 billion in goods to the
United States in March, down a slight 0.6 per cent from
February, while they imported $20.9 billion worth, up 0.2 per
cent. The U.S. trade deficit improved slightly in March as sales
of American products in foreign markets exceeded an increase in
imports. The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the March
deficit narrowed to $31.6 billion US, down 0.4 per cent from
February's $31.8 billion US.
Thursday May 16, 2002 Premiums going the right way
Personal auto insurance premiums rose 8.5% during the 12 months ended April 2002, up from 8.3% in March and 7.7% in February. This is the stronge=
st growth in auto insurance premiums since May 1992. The spread between personal auto insurance premiums and auto repair and maintenance costs was a positive 4.6% in April, up from 4.5% in March and negative 0.2% in Ap=
ril 2001. The lat time the pricing equation was this favourable was in December 1988. This spread was a negative 4.1% in May 1999. Poor results from State Farm for 2001 are one important explanation for the continuat=
ion of the hard market. The CPI is an inflation barometer for these interest rate sensitive stocks.
It also signals national pricing trends for personal auto insurance. Personal auto represents about 40% of industry =
sales. Accident frequency however is another important variable on the cost side of the equation - increased frequency is expected due to a shift to driving as an alternative to air travel. An offset could be the high=
er unemployment and higher gas prices. Allstate remains extremely well placed to benefit for this widening in the gap between premiums and costs. The company's first quarter was strong. 2002 and 2003 expectations of $2.60 and $3.20, respectively. Our target is $50.
Friday May 10, 2002 cbc
APRIL JOBLESS RATE DOWN
The unemployment rate for April fell to 7.6 per cent, down from 7.7 per
cent in March, said Statistics Canada Friday. see detail
Friday, May 03, 2002
U.S. jobless rate climbs to 6% see detail | INX |
TSX
Friday May 10, 2002 bca Downgrade Canadian And Australian Bonds
Our Global Fixed Income Strategy service recommends cutting to minimum on Canadian and Australian bonds within a global bond portfolio.
Domestic demand in the two countries is accelerating, even compared to U.S. Core inflation is also edging up in both countries, while it is trending lower in the U.S. These trends are reflected in our Central Bank Monitors, which measure pressures on central banks to change policy. For Canada and Australia, the Monitors have risen into ‘tight money required’ territory, while the U.S. Monitor remains in the easy-money zone. This means that monetary tightening will occur earlier and more aggressively in the peripheral dollar-bloc markets than in the U.S. Thus, Canadian and Australian bonds should underperform the U.S. on a currency-hedged basis.
Friday May 10, 2002 bca The U.S. Budget Deficit: Alarm Bells Ringing
The U.S. Federal government finances are deteriorating at an alarming rate, which bodes ill for Treasurys
In a Daily Insight on May 3rd, we highlighted the feeding frenzy of spending plans taking place in Congress. Worse, total revenues are dropping, largely because individual income tax revenues have plunged by about $100 bn compared to a year ago. Analysts cannot explain the depth of the revenue shortfall, especially since the economy experienced a very mild recession. The CBO is soon expected to boost its estimate of the FY2002 unified budget deficit from $46 bn to nearly $100 bn. The fear is that the U.S. could be slipping back into a sustained period of budget deficits, which would push up real Treasury yields as occurred in the 1980s and early 1990s.
Friday May 10, 2002 cbc
Executive Education Outlook: Co-operate or die?
Is co-operation a good thing? Most managers would immediately answer
yes. But as good as co-operation appears in theory, in practice it is
extremely difficult to achieve. Can cross-cultural business units learn
to co-operate? How do you align the interests of managers and their
staff? Can competing companies balance their competitive needs to
achieve industry goals they can't achieve alone?
Successful co-operation can increase productivity and innovation,
leading to a healthier company with strong growth. Executive Education
Outlook, from The Economist Global Executive, looks at the benefits of
co-operation and the obstacles to achieving it.
This edition examines business schools' role in explaining the
strategic value of co-operation, and in teaching better methods to
achieve positive results.
Visit Executive Education Outlook now:
Friday May 10, 2002 cbc
CIBC, TD LOWER MORTGAGE RATES
CIBC - often the first of the big banks to adjust mortgage rates
- reinforced that reputation Wednesday when it announced it would
lower most of its mortgage rates. TD Canada Trust followed soon after
with cuts of its own.
Wednesday May 8, 2002 rci U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED
see detail | SPX |
TSE
Monday May 6, 2002 nytimes Tariffs Won, Steel Sings New Tune
Steel companies in Canada and Mexico may be strong choices for investors because they benefit from tariffs, and also have very low costs.
Friday May 3, 2002 economist US joblessness hits eight-year high
Unemployment in the US rose to 6% in April, its highest level since mid-1994.
Tuesday Apr 30, 2002 nytimes The U.S. unemployment rate in April rose to its highest level
in more than seven years, the government said today. The
jobless rate climbed to 6 percent -- the highest since August
1994 -- from 5.7 percent in March.
Friday, May 03, 2002: News to 8:43 AM EDT glob
U.S. jobless rate climbs to 6%
Non-farm payrolls rise in April is less than expected
The weaker-than-expected report — which still managed to offer at least some indication that labour conditions were improving south of the border — was seen by many economists as yet another sign that the U.S. Federal Reserve will leave interest rates alone when it meets on Tuesday.
During the month, non-farm payrolls rose by a weaker-than-forecast 43,000 jobs, following a loss the previous month of 27,000. Initially the Labor Department had said payrolls rose by 58,000 jobs in March, but that number was revised downward in Friday's report.
The April reading was below the 60,000 forecast by most economists, but it also suggested continued improvement in the U.S. jobs market that had suffered dramatically since Sept. 11.
The unemployment rate, meanwhile, shot up to 6 per cent, from March's 5.7 per cent. Economists been forecasting a much more tepid increase in the unemployment rate, calling for it to edge higher to 5.8 per cent.
April's jump in the unemployment rate reflected a increase of 565,000 people entering the work force during the month.
Mon Apr 29 Downgrade U.S. Stocks Another Notch
Our U.S. strategy service, BCA ForeTrends, has downgraded stocks to slightly below average (2 out of a maximum of 5)
The equity market has failed to rally despite very supportive monetary conditions and a solid economic rebound. Investors lack confidence in the long-run profit outlook and poor value remains a roadblock for the large-cap indexes, especially tech shares. The Fed has successfully reduced interest rate expectations, but has also undermined market sentiment and could be delaying expansion plans in the business sector. Meanwhile, legal probes into Wall Street are adding to the gloom. This downgrade could prove temporary, given high odds that the economic expansion will roll on after a brief cooling this spring (perhaps, once the Fed becomes more upbeat).
Friday May 3, 2002 bca U.S. Tech Stocks: Insiders Are Bailing
The slide in U.S. tech stocks seems likely to persist, based on the lack of faith of corporate insiders .
Tech stocks have resumed their retreat in the past month and corporate insiders are not rushing to the rescue: the sell/buy ratio has risen as purchases have receded. Historically, the insider sell-buy ratio for the overall market has been a good, non-contrarian indicator: increased selling heralds market weakness and vice versa. However, tech insiders have not shown such “savvy” behavior in recent years: purchases surged in the late 1990s and continued even as prices collapsed in 2000. The message is that the underlying fundamentals are not improving, which is a problem for this still richly-priced sector; investors should continue to stay clear.
Tuesday Apr 30, 2002 cbc
UPBEAT ECONOMIC DATA INVIGORATES MARKETS
Better-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence numbers and signs of
continuing growth in Canadian GDP had investors on both sides of the
border casting off their mourning clothes and buying stocks again.
Tuesday Apr 30, 2002 cbc 
ECONOMY GROWS 0.5% IN FEBRUARY
The Canadian economy grew by 0.5 per cent in February as the country's
hard-hit manufacturing sector continued to rebound.
Monday Apr 29, 2002 economist
America’s economy
The strength of America’s economic recovery in the first quarter of this year has been breathtaking. Can the expansion really continue at such a scorching pace? And if growth is maintained, will American interest rates have to go up? chart
Monday Apr 29, 2002 economist
Remaking the bond markets
These are times of change in the bond markets. While lenders to sovereign debtors are still searching for a formula that will save them time and money in the event of a default, the holders of corporate bonds are learning to throw their weight about—particularly over the restructuring of hard-pressed telecoms companies chart
Monday, April 29, 2002
WHAT TO WATCH Employment and Earnings
The river of results that flowed out last week slows a bit in the next five days as earnings season moves past its midpoint. Few key companies will be reporting this week, and the biggest economic news is due out on Friday, with the government's release of the employment figures for April.
The lack of strong earnings may be reflected in Friday's report on the employment situation for April. Last month, the numbers were little changed, with unemployment rising to 5.7 percent, with just 58,000 new jobs being added. (The jobless rate takes into account only the pool of people actively looking for work).
Friday Apr 26, 2002
U.S. Economy Surged at 5.8% Rate in the First Quarter
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
The U.S. economy surged in the first three months of 2002 at the fastest pace in more than two years, the government said today.
• Consumer Confidence Fell in April
• Forum: Are You Feeling a Recovery?
Friday Apr 26, 2002 The BCA Global Fixed Income (see chart)Strategy service recommends that investors stay long low-quality corporate bonds in the U.S. and Europe.
High-yield returns are usually strongly correlated with equities, but U.S. junk bonds managed to post a positive total return over the past month even as the Russell 3000 sank. U.S. BBB-rated corporate spreads have blown out, but this is largely due to a few blowups among major issuers like Tyco, Worldcom, Quest and AOL. Spreads have held in well for the majority of the market. Spread performance has been equally impressive in the euro area and the U.K. The resilience of corporate bond spreads underscores the positive underlying fundamentals that support this sector as firms strive to reduce debt.
Thursday Apr 25, 2002 cnn 
Investors take in conglomerate's abandonment of split-up, AOL's record 1Q loss. ....Hanging over the trading day will be the $54.2 billion net loss posted by media conglomerate AOL Time Warner (AOL: Research, Estimates) late Wednesday for the first quarter. The loss, reportedly the biggest ever for a quarter, was due primarily to a charge related to last year's acquisition of Time Warner by America Online; in fact, earnings before charges and other items actually topped most forecasts on Wall Street.
Fri Apr 12 2002 bca Brokers: Post-Bubble Hangover
The potential for an asbestos-like overhang on brokerage stocks may be developing, as authorities are charging ahead with broad-based legal action related to the shenanigans from the tech bubble. The potential for widespread lawsuits is a serious concern. Consequently, significant relative gains for the S&P diversified financial services index, which contains a few large brokerage stocks, are in jeopardy (the biggest components of this index are: Citigroup - 35%, Fannie Mae 12%, JP Morgan Chase 10%, Morgan Stanley 8.5%, American Express 8% Freddie Mac 7%, and Merrill Lynch 6%). Importantly, these stocks will have difficulty regardless if activity in the capital markets fails to revive (such as the value of new stock offerings, which tracks the stock-to-bond ratio). We are maintaining our overweight stance on the overall index, but suggest that investors concentrate on non-brokerage stocks.
Wednesday Apr 10, 2002 nyt
Bush Weighs In on Debate Over Stock-Option Rules
President Bush has joined the debate over the appropriate way to figure the cost of stock options used to compensate top executives.
Tuesday Apr 9, 2002 cbc WEAK COMPUTER SPENDING LEADS TO SURPRISE IBM PROFIT WARNING
International Business Machines sent a chill through stock markets on Monday after the computer maker
issued a surprise profit warning - its first in 11 years.
Sunday Mar 31, 2002 CANADIAN ECONOMY CONTINUED TO REBOUND IN JANUARY
OTTAWA - Consumer demand for housing and vehicles helped the
Canadian economy grow by 0.6 per cent in January – the economy's
strongest monthly growth since early 2000, Statistics Canada
reported Thursday. Between January 2002 and January 2001, the
economy grew by 1 per cent. The economy has now expanded every
month since last September, when it posted a drop of 0.9 per
cent. "Consumers' recent insatiable demand for housing and cars
led to higher output in many industrial sectors," StatsCan said
about January's growth. "Increased demand for new cars and
trucks propelled both the retailing and the wholesaling
industries. Brisk housing demand bolstered both new housing
construction and the output of the real estate industry," the
federal agency said. Large gains in the production of wood,
chemical, plastic, rubber and paper products helped the the
manufacturing sector jump 1.5 per cent in January. The gain was
the beleaguered sector's first significant advance in more than
16 months. Increased drilling and rigging activity and expanding
oil production helped the mining sector expand output for the
first time since September. Dealer incentive programs, such as
zero-per-cent financing, drove new motor vehicle sales up by 1.3
per cent in January. Sales since September climbed 16.8 per
cent, although imports advanced just 4.1 per cent. Low financing
rates also helped spur new home construction. With mortgage
rates at 40-year lows and a mild winter in most parts of Canada,
new home construction rose 2.2 per cent in January. Housing
starts surpassed the 200,000 mark in January for the first time
since May 1990, StatsCan said. Sherry Cooper, chief economist at
BMO Nesbitt Burns, said the January growth figure "all but locks
in annualized growth of at least 4 per cent in the first
quarter." Cooper said the "robust" January growth makes it all
the more likely that the Bank of Canada will shortly begin
raising interest rates. U.S. economy grows in Q4 New figures
show the U.S. economy grew at a revised annual rate of 1.7 per
cent in the final three months of 2001. That was stronger growth
than the 1.4 per cent rate that preliminary estimates had
arrived at. The third quarter saw an annualized GDP decline of
1.3 per cent. In a separate economic report, U.S. consumer
sentiment in March jumped to its highest level since December
2000.
Friday Mar 29, 2002 bca AGF SEES LOWER PROFIT AND CASH FLOW
Mutual fund company AGF Management Ltd.
reported lower profits and flat revenues for the first quarter.
Friday Mar 29, 2002 bca Concerned About Inflation? Hedge In Emerging Markets
Emerging markets will outperform the U.S. if inflation returns in the next few years This week’s Emerging Markets Strategy Bulletin discusses the global economy’s possible transition toward inflation. History has shown that periods of rising inflation almost always coincide with rising prices in emerging markets relative to U.S. stocks, while disinflation or deflation tend to devastate emerging market stocks. This is because the emerging markets are oriented toward manufacturing production and commodities. Rising prices in these sectors represent significant terms-of-trade improvements for them. At this point in the global business cycle, investors should keep a portion of their investment in inflation-hedged assets. Emerging markets will continue to outperform.
Tuesday Mar 26, 2002 cbc CANADIANS SOLD FOREIGN BONDS IN JANUARY
Canadian investors sold off about $1.3 billion in foreign bonds in
January, while buying up a small amount of foreign stocks, Statistics
Canada reported Monday.
Thu Mar 21, 2002 bca Market Implications of a Shift in Fed Policy
Stocks typically outperform bonds during the transition from an easy to neutral Fed stance . A new Special Report from our ForeTrends service looks at the prospects for U.S monetary polucy and the implications for the financial markets. chart
Monday Mar 18, 2002 nyt Economic View: Inflation Is Recovery's Wild Card
The amazing strength of the American economy, despite the recession, has economists scrambling for explanations. Consumer resilience is much cited. So is price cutting. Less noticed, though, but crucial, is the boost that came from a declining inflation rate. And, writes Louis Uchitelle in the Economic View column, focusing on inflation produces a forecast of what might happen next to the American economy that is different from the standard fare.
Tuesday Feb 26, 2002 bbc 
Can you afford to retire?
![[Version en français]](images/fr.gif)
A 25-year-old today who began saving 11% of earnings would need 47 years to generate a pension income worth two thirds of salary at retirement
A 25-year-old today who began saving the same 11% of earnings would need 47 years, rather than 40, to generate a pension income worth two thirds of their salary at retirement.
Monday Feb 25, 2002 abc news Financial Makeover: Setting Your Fiscal Priorities
Friday Feb 22, 2002 cbc
CANADIAN MANUFACTURERS LIMPED OUT OF 2001
Canada's manufacturing sector continued to hurt in December as shipments
fell for the third time in four months, Statistics Canada reported
Tuesday.
Thursday Feb 21, 2002 cbc
RETAIL SALES HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR DECEMBER
Canada's retail sales jumped by a better-than-expected 1.6 per cent from
November to December as they rose for the third consecutive month,
Statistics Canada reported Thursday.
Thursday Feb 21, 2002 cbc
DODGE SEES GROWTH IN CANADIAN ECONOMY IN FIRST QUARTER
The Canadian economy may show growth in both the last quarter of 2001
and the first quarter of this year, Bank of Canada governor David Dodge
said Wednesday.
State of the MarketsFEBRUARY 16 | 2002
We asked Canadians if Nortel will rise this year, where the dollar is headed and who was to blame for the market meltdown. Get the answers, plus investing strategies, market analysis and more in our special quarterly report: State of the Markets. Brought to you in association with RBC Financial Group.
In this special Web site, Financial Post writers examine Canada's financial prospects, what it means for your business, and your financial future. Among other discoveries, a National Post/CanWest poll has shown that the burst financial bubble, vicious bear market, recession fears and post September 11th climate have shaken Canadians' faith in the stock market.
Friday Feb 15, 2002 economist
Internet payments: Collecting pennies
The first successful flotation in more than a year of a Silicon Valley dotcom on Wall Street shows that, despite the dotcom bust, there is still some interest among investors in a good Internet idea. PayPal is one of a group of firms trying to pioneer systems for making small payments on the web. If they succeed, they will transform e-commerce
Tuesday Feb 12, 2002 A "Healthy" Sector Bet!
The Fed has finished cutting rates and the economy is on the mend, but positive corporate earnings guidance has been slow to materialize. Business executives have become timid and are hesitant to boost market expectations, especially with accounting issues under the microscope. Are valuation multiples about to embark on a prolonged contraction phase, setting the stage for a resumption of the bear market? Or is this cleansing process paving the way for the emergence of the next market leader?
Monday Feb 4, 2002 nytimes 
Russia's Stock Market Comes of Age Russia's young stock market has been more a casino than a place to invest since its inception seven years ago. Last year, the market's performance was second only to China's, but in 1998, it was the worst-performing emerging market in the world.
Friday Feb 1, 2002
American interest rates: Was the Fed right? The Fed holds off
At its January meeting, America's Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged for the first time in more than a year. This appears to support those who believe that the worst is now over for the American economy. But new labour market data suggest the Fed is right to remain cautious
Friday Feb 1, 2002 cbc
GDP UP, TALK OF RECESSION DOWN
The debate over whether Canada has actually slid into recession grew
Thursday as new evidence surfaced that the economy may be rebounding.
Friday Feb 1, 2002 economist
Growing again, Recession? What recession?
Taking many by surprise, America's economy grew in the fourth quarter; GDP rose by 0.2% in the three months to December at an annual rate. Heavy spending by consumers and indeed government helped America's economy avoid contracting for a second consecutive quarter. ..ONCE again the American economy has defied the pessimists. According to initial estimates published by the Commerce Department on January 30th, output actually grew during the last three months of 2001, at an annual rate of 0.2%. That is hardly strong growth, but it is better than the 1% drop most analysts had expected. If—a big if—these GDP figures are not revised downwards, America may end up having avoided one popular definition of a recession, that of two consecutive quarters of falling output.
Tuesday Jan 29, 2002 cbc
TSE 300 COMPOSITE INDEX IN FOR MAJOR OVERHAUL
Canada's benchmark stock index is getting a makeover, shedding many of
its smaller companies to make itself more attractive to index fund
managers.
Tuesday Jan 29, 2002 cbc
BEWARE OF ONLINE INVESTMENT TIPS
Securities regulators in Canada are warning consumers about acting on
investment tips found over the Internet. [no value to real people!]
Wednesday, 23 January, 2002 bbc
Boeing profits take $600m knock
Tuesday Jan 22, 2002 cbc
LOWER ENERGY COSTS KEEP CANADA'S INFLATION RATE LOW
Lower gasoline costs helped keep Canada's inflation rate down to a
steady 0.7 per cent in December, Statistics Canada said Tuesday. That
was the same rate as in November.
Tuesday Jan 15, 2002 EXPORTS REBOUND IN NOVEMBER fp
Boosted by exports of aircraft, automotive products and electronic
equipment, Canada's merchandise exports rebounded in November from close
to a two-year low in October, Statistics Canada reported Friday.
Jan 17, 2002 Economist
Governments seem unable to use budgets to temper recessions. That is a pity
THE traditional Keynesian remedy for recession—deficit spending, and plenty of it—went out of fashion years ago. As it had come to be applied, it deserved to. Many governments were using budget deficits not merely to cushion recessions but, fatally, to boost economic growth year in year out. That did not work, for the result was chronic inflation and higher taxes. But such past abuses should not blind governments to the role that budgetary policy can play in tempering the economic cycle. The fiscal option is often useful—and sometimes vital.
Friday Jan 18, 2002 Economist
Enron Sherron foresaw the implosion
The aftershocks from the collapse of Enron, [ENRNQ] a Texan energy-trading firm, in history’s biggest corporate bankruptcy, may yet destroy the firm’s auditors, Andersen, reducing the Big Five of global accountancy to the Big Four. The survivors might find themselves facing a harsher regulatory climate. About time too!
Bush and Enron's collapse fp
Tuesday Jan 15, 2002 bcaresearch
Will Global Monetary Policy Stay Expansive?
Global policy rates are likely to remain low for an extended period due to a weak recovery ahead. Monetary policy has been aggressively eased in order to boost interest-sensitive components of demand. As discussed in this month’s International Bank Credit Analyst, motor vehicles sales are stronger during the current global recession period compared with prior periods (the early 1980s and 90s, the exception being Japan). By helping to offset the slump now, these components of demand will not provide a huge boost during the recovery, although an inventory bounce looms. Consequently, the economic recovery will be relatively modest and policy rates should remain low for a long time. The futures markets are premature in worrying about a tightening cycle.
Tuesday Jan 15, 2002 QUEBEC BOND WILL BE TIED TO THE PROVINCE'S TOP COMPANIES fp
The Quebec government is launching a new kind of savings bond that's tied
to the stock market.
Tuesday Jan 15, 2002 BANK OF CANADA LOWERS INTEREST RATES AGAIN fp
The Bank of Canada on Tuesday lowered its key interest rate for the 10th
consecutive time as the Canadian economy continues to stumble.
Tuesday Jan 15, 2002 bcaresearch
Global Reflation Is Fueling Emerging Stock Markets Outperformance
Emerging stock markets (EM) will continue to outperform the global equity indexes. EM stocks have rallied 32% since early October and have outperformed the global stocks by a wide margin. Massive policy stimulus and signs of a bottoming in global manufacturing will sustain the relative outperformance of EM stocks. Importantly, portfolio flows to EM are picking up as low global money market yields force investors to search for higher returns. The wide gap between the EM earnings yield and global short-term interest rates suggests that portfolio flows will remain robust. Our Emerging Markets Strategy service continues to recommend overweighting EM stocks.
Monday Jan 14, 2002Timing golden to borrow for RRSP fp
Two years of generally abysmal returns from stocks, mutual funds and fixed-income products make it hard to muster much enthusiasm for another RRSP contribution, particularly if you have to borrow money for it.
But in some respects, there's never been a better time to do it, especially if you want to fill some of the unused RRSP contribution room carried over from past years.
Interest rates are at historic lows, and most financial institutions offer preferential loan rates - usually at or near the prime rate (currently 4 per cent) - if the proceeds are used to make registered retirement savings plan contributions with them.
Though income-tax rates have dropped, reducing the refund generated by RRSPs, the combined benefit of cash back and tax-sheltered growth still is hard to beat.
'Huge Opportunity'
This year's Top 10
BBC
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