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2001

Monday, December 31, 2001 OIL STOCKS LEAD TSE LOWER cp
The TSE's first trading session of the new year ended on a down note Wednesday, as oil and gas stocks slumped on skepticism that OPEC will fully comply with the production cuts it agreed to implement as of January 1.
Friday Dec 28, 2001
Oil ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed in an emergency meeting that it would slash output by 1.5 million barrels a day beginning Jan. 1. The cuts are to last for at least six months, OPEC officials told a news conference. The decision appears unlikely to have a major impact on the prices consumers pay for gasoline or heating oil. OPEC approved the cut in principle back in November, and energy markets have already factored it into current prices for crude and refined oil products.
Friday Dec 28, 2001
Natural gas producers in Alaska and the Northwest Territories are expected to decide early in 2002 on whether the time is finally ripe for a pipeline to connect the rich gas fields of the North to southern markets. That decision will alter the futures of giant corporations and tiny communities. And the individuals that make up both can hardly wait.
Friday Dec 28, 2001 OPEC CONFIRMS 6 PER CENT PRODUCTION CUT bbc
OPEC ministers meeting in Cairo have agreed to cut production by 1.5 million barrels a day in a bid to shore up prices that have slumped this year in tandem with the economies of the world's biggest oil consuming nations.
Friday Dec 28, 2001 Opec cuts prompt oil price surge bbc
Crude oil prices rise after the oil producers' cartel Opec agrees, at a special meeting in Cairo, to cut exports.
Thursday Dec 27, 2001 OPEC OIL MINISTERS GATHER AHEAD OF EXPECTED PRODUCTION CUT cbc
Oil ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries gathered in Cairo Thursday, one day before they're expected to vote for a 1.5 million barrel-a-day production cut.
Wednesday Dec 26, 2001
OILS FUEL MODEST TSE RISE cp
Oil stocks rose in thin pre-Christmas trading Monday on expectations that OPEC countries will cut production in the new year. But otherwise, trading was as flat as the presents at the bottom of Santa's sleigh.
Dec 19, 2001
NEWFOUNDLAND APPROVES THIRD OFFSHORE OIL PROJECT cp
The government of Newfoundland and Labrador has approved plans for the province's third offshore oil project.
Thursday Dec 20, 2001
U.S. wants Canadian gas, oil, electricity more than ever, says ambassador
Nervous about relying on the Middle East to meet its post-Sept. 11 energy needs, Washington is turning toward Canada to quench its growing thirst for oil, natural gas and electricity, says U.S. Ambassador Paul Cellucci.

Output from Opec members

Saudi Arabia: 7.92m

Iran: 3.73m

Venezuela: 2.83m

Iraq: 2.77m

UAE: 2.14m

Nigeria: 2.07m

Kuwait: 2.02m

Libya: 1.39m

Indonesia: 1.22m
Figures: barrels per day

Tuesday, 18 December, 2001
Opec calls special oil price talks bbc
.. Opec members are pressing for cuts in production levels to try to stop the sharp fall in prices, resulting from the drop in worldwide demand since the 11 September attacks on the United States.
The price of a barrel of the benchmark Brent crude stands at $18.40.
The cartel, which produces about 40% of the world's oil, has cut production by 3.5 million barrels a day so far this year.
Dec 15, 2001 Addicted to oil econ
America's energy policy was wrong before September 11th. Now it is even more so ...If the West were not so dependent on oil from the Middle East, might September 11th have been avoided? Put that way, no; and as long as the West continues to love oil, Saudi Arabia will continue to dominate the market. But with higher taxes, America could gradually tame its oil addiction and the producers' power
Wednesday Dec 12, 2001 Energy Utilities and Pipelines The accelerating success of the terrorist war effort to date, some signs of economic life in the U.S., and Enron's bankruptcy are leading to a significant equity sector rotation shift out of interest sensitive stocks into more aggressive economically sensitive equities. We reduced our one-year price targets by about 5% across the board on Monday, December 10 except for TransAlta. A recovering economy will support TransAlta better than other stocks in the sector, as TransAlta will be fully unregulated by Q2 of 2002 in the deregulated cyclical commodity business of generating electricity in its primary markets. Our downgrade recommendation changes are Enbridge (from 1-Strong Buy to 2-Buy), TransCanada (from 1-Strong Buy to 2-Buy) and Caribbean Utilities (from 2-Buy to 3-Hold). Our upgrade of TransAlta (4-Reduce to 3-Hold) was due to price deprecation. We expect to continue downgrading electric utility stocks like Emera and Fortis if/when they experience modest share price rallies. The Enron situation will continue to overhang the market for some time. Stocks like TransAlta and Westcoast via Duke Energy are the most exposed. Anyone with an energy marketing operation has faced U.S. investor wrath. –– Sam Kanes
14 November 2001

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Oil & Gas Sector
OPEC has proposed a cut of 1.5 million barrels per day effective January 1, 2002 conditional on a 500,000 barrel per day cut in non-OPEC production. The cartel appears particularly fixated on Russian production which, according to the most recent IEA forecast, is expected to increase by 500,000 barrels per day next year. The decision clearly abandons the previously stated policy by the cartel that it would adjust its production in order to defend an OPEC basket price in the range of U$22 to U$28 per barrel. The combination of OPEC's refusal to cut production, rising inventory levels, and a weak demand outlook due to economic uncertainties leads us to a conclusion that oil prices will weaken over the near term. Without the cartel supporting oil prices, we believe there is significant downside risk, probably to the mid teens. To reflect this, we are reducing our forecast for oil prices next year to U$17 per barrel. We are also reducing our estimate for this year to U$25.50 from U$27.00 per barrel. With oil and gas indices within 10% of their highs, we believe that this is an opportune time to reduce positions. Target price and recommendation changes are detailed in the table at the beginning of this report. –– Duncan Mathieson
Nov 30, 2001
Help 33 years in coming for Alberta family farm contaminated by oilwell
Government officials admit the contamination of the Tieulie's grain farm is a shocking disgrace that must be rectified, but no one yet knows who will pay for a cleanup that could exceed $500,000.
Mon Nov 26 2001 Europe and the Oil Shock Europe is a big beneficiary from the drop in oil prices and a new Special Report from the BCA European Investment Strategy service examines the specific implications for markets. ..... Click here to view
November 24, 2001
TEAM CANADA IN TEXAS TO SELL ENERGY NYT
Team Canada's latest trade mission to the United States is beginning on a note of disagreement, as the prime minister and four western premiers gathered in Dallas.
Wednesday Nov 28, 2001 Natural Gas Sector
Natural gas prices continue to weaken, closing at U$2.55 per mcf yesterday on the NYMEX. Mild weather patterns continue throughout North America, continuing to delay the start of the winter heating season. Industrial demand for natural gas remains weak, with no economic recovery yet underway. The degree to which natural gas prices recover over the course of the next year will depend largely on the strength of the North American economy. U.S. natural gas drilling activity continues to fall. The curtailment in drilling will show up in reduced deliverability in 2002. Reduced deliverability in concert with a recovering economy will set up gas for a dramatic price recovery late in 2002, in our opinion. In the meantime, we currently do not have any buy recommendations on the shares of natural gas levered companies that we follow. –– David Stenason
November 24, 2001 Better Gas Mileage, Greater Security NYT
by By ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. There is a clear and pragmatic way to reduce our dependency on foreign oil fast.
Friday Nov 23, 2001
RUSSIA DEFIES OPEC PRESSURE FOR BIG PRODUCTION CUTS NYT Oil prices dropped 5 per cent Friday after Russia offered to make token production cuts of 50,000 barrels a day - about 10 minutes worth of production - far less than what OPEC countries had been hoping for.
Thursday Nov 22, 2001NORWAY ON OIL CUTS: 'WE WILL IF YOU WILL' NYT
Oil prices climbed above the $20 US a barrel level Thursday after Norway said it was ready to cut oil production by as much as 200,000 barrels a day - but only if other oil producers make substantial cuts of their own.
Wed Nov 21 2001
Crude Oil Weakness = Pound/Euro Shorting Opportunity The pound should weaken sharply versus the euro, barring an unlikely resurgence in Brent toward US$25 per barrel. This is consistent with Britain's position as a net oil .....
November 20, 2001OIL PRICES RISE AS NON-OPEC COUNTRIES HINT AT PRODUCTION CUT NYT
The price of natural gas is falling but some consumers have found themselves in a bind: they're still paying sky-high prices.
Crude oil prices for January delivery gained as much as 6 per cent Tuesday after non-OPEC countries like Norway and Mexico suggested the possibility of an agreement among the non-cartel countries to cut oil production.
November 19, 2001SOME HOMEOWNERS STUCK WITH HIGH RATES, AS NATURAL GAS PRICES FALL NYT
The price of natural gas is falling but some consumers have found themselves in a bind: they're still paying sky-high prices.
November 14, 2001FALLING OIL PRICES A RELIEF TO AIRLINES, DRIVERS NYT
Crude oil has dropped to its lowest price in two years and some analysts believe it could further push down prices at the gas pump.
November 15, 2001Can OPEC Prop Up Oil Prices? BCA
Russia announced a trivial output cut in crude oil this week, despite intense pressure from OPEC, which is having a difficult time convincing its members (and others) to further .....
Monday Nov 19, 2001 Oil & Gas Royalty Trusts
We have reduced our forecast cash flow and distribution estimates for the Oil & Gas Royalty Trusts to reflect our lower natural gas price forecast. On average we have lowered our cash flow per unit and cash distribution per unit estimates by 7%. Notable reductions were made to Shiningbank and Pengrowth where 14% and 11% cut estimates, respectively. We continue to rate APF Energy Trust, ARC Energy Trust, Enerplus Resources Fund, Provident Energy Trust, and Shiningbank Energy Income Fund as 3-Hold. Pengrowth Energy Trust remains ranked a 4-Reduce. Our lone 1-Strong Buy recommendation is on Advantage Energy Income Fund. –– Brian Ector
Canadian Natural Gas Stocks
We are reducing our 2002 natural gas price forecast from U$3.00/mcf to U$2.75/mcf. This reduction is directly related to our recent reduction in our 2002 oil price forecast. Last week we reduced our oil price assumption for 2002 to $17.00 per barrel and this does not support our previous natural gas price forecast. We expect natural gas prices in North America to remain weak as a result of prevailing mild weather conditions, high storage levels, weak economic conditions and higher production rates. Cash flow estimates have been reduced for most companies we follow. We have also reduced target valuations on the following companies: Canadian Natural Resources $41.00 (was $45.00), Penn West Pretroleum $35.00 (was $37.00) and Ketch Energy $4.00 (was $4.50), Bonavista Petroleum $32.50 ($36.00), and Richland Petroleum $3.40 (was $3.50).
Thursday Nov 15, 2001
Oil & Gas Royalty Trusts
The reduction in our crude oil price forecast has led us to downgrade the ratings on APF Energy Trust, ARC Energy Trust, and Provident Energy Trust to 3-Hold from 2-Buy. Pengrowth Energy Trust has been downgraded to 4-Reduce from 3-Hold. Shiningbank Energy Income Fund remains unchanged at 3-Hold. We are currently restricted on Enerplus Resources Fund, PrimeWest Energy Trust, and Viking Energy Royalty Trust. We have reduced 2002 cash flow per unit estimates on average by 23% and cash distribution estimates by 20% on average. Pengrowth's estimates were most negatively affected by our lower oil price assumption with our 2002 cash flow estimate falling 35% and distributions for 2002 down 39%. See the Daily EDGE for a complete review of our new estimates, targets and recommendations. –– Brian Ector
November 14, 2001Bush Orders Increased Emergency Supply of Oil NYT
President Bush ordered the Energy Department to increase the United States' Strategic Petroleum Reserve to its capacity over the next few years.
November 13, 2001 Oil Drilling in Arctic Called Departure From Past Policy NYT
The General Accounting Office says that if Congress approves the drilling, it will be breaking with government practice of the last 35 years.
29/Oct/2001 A Dangerous Appetite for Oil NYT
Importing oil costs the United States over $250 billion a year, if one includes federal subsidies and the health and environmental impact of air pollution. America spends $56 billion on the oil itself and another $25 billion on the military defense of oil-exporting Middle Eastern countries.
15/Oct/2001 Oil & Gas Sector
In the last six months we have seen significant acquisitions in the Canadian Energy sector worth an estimated $20 billion. We believe that, barring a significant change to fundamentals, the merger activity will continue. A weak Canadian dollar, low interest rates and increasing demand has helped to create an environment for merger activity. We believe possible targets include Alberta Energy (AEC-TSE), PanCanadian (PCE-TSE), Penn West Petroleum (PWT-TSE), Rio Alto Exploration (RAX-TSE) and Talisman Energy (TLM-TSE). Among the oil-levered stocks we believe possible targets include Canadian Oil Sands (COS-U-TSE), Suncor Energy (SU-TSE) UTS Energy (UTS-TSE) and Western Oil Sands (WTO-TSE). Six months ago US President G. Bush unveiled the Energy Policy Review which highlighted the increase in demand for energy in North America and a decline in North America production. We believe that recent events underscore the need for the US to obtain natural gas and oil from a friendly and reliable source. So much so, that we believe the US maybe willing to pay a premium for that security. We also remind investors that there is more oil in Fort McMurray Alberta than in Saudi Arabia, representing enough supply to meet Canadian energy needs for the next 400 years. - Ducan Mathison
11/Oct/2001 Energy Utilities and Pipelines
The recent positive sentiment for defensive interest sensitive stocks following the September 11th tragedy was exacerbated by yesterday’s weak economic data. This backdrop supported the rise of all five Canadian electricity stock prices. The two key factors behind our near-term bullish stance for pipelines and energy utilities are lower interest rates and the scarcity premium afforded to Canada’s remaining pipeline stocks. Scotia Economics’ forecast is for lower interest rates (10-year Canada bond yields are expected to fall from 5.34% to 5.00% by the fourth quarter of 2002) which promotes the opportunity for investors to buy stable dividend-yielding stocks like energy utilities and pipelines. We also highlight the takeover offer for Westcoast Energy, which leaves only two in the Canadian pipelines sector, therefore creating a situation where a scarcity premium is expected to be applied to share prices of TransCanada PipeLines and Enbridge. Our top picks in the overall group are Enbridge Inc. (ENB-TSE)$43.25 and Emera (EMA-TSE).$17.58 - Sam Kanes
12/Oct/2001 Enbridge Inc. (ENB - $45.00) Recommendation: 1-Strong Buy Target: $53.00 Enbridge's share price closed at an all time higher yesterday. Its defensive characteristics and further consolidation potential in the Canadian oil and gas pipeline sector are fueling its share price. Yesterday the company hosted a full day conference. Enbridge's management emphasized its message of consistent, low risk earnings growth. The company's CEO stated that the business fundamentals were very strong with visible earnings coming proven sources. The dividend payout ratio will remain targeted in the 50%-60% range and the dividend should grow at the rate of EPS growth, near 10% per annum. Enbridge expects to spend $4.5 billion from 2002-2005 while generating $2.9 billion of cash flow. The net $1.6 billion shortfall plus another $1.1 billion of maturing debt will be refinanced solely by debt. We continue to recommend the shares of Enbridge in a declining interest rate environment. - Sam Kanes
9/Oct/2001 Oil & Gas - Heavy Oil Heavy oil economics are weakening again despite a brief flurry of improvement during the summer. As the summer asphalt and roofing season comes to a close, the spread between light and heavy oil has widened again and it is now very unlikely that our forecasted spread will be achieved. The companies most impacted by this will be Imperial Oil (IMO-TSE) and Husky Energy (HSE-TSE) in the integrated oils, Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-TSE) and Nexen (NXY-TSE) in the senior producers, and Baytex Energy (BTE-TSE) in the juniors. Petro-Canada and Imperial Oil will benefit from deterioration in heavy oil prices as both process heavy oil in their refineries. In the case of Imperial Oil, the benefits of lower feedstock costs will help offset the company's exposure to heavy oil in its upstream operations. The widening spreads will also help the economics associated with Husky Energy's heavy oil upgrader; however, the company is also a significant producer of heavy oil. - Duncan Mathieson
5/Oct/2001 Ottawa may sell its stake in Petrocan
Ottawa's $2-billion share .. The federal government is considering presenting a full-scale budget in November that could include the sale of Ottawa's $2-billion share of Petro-Canada, sources say. The cost of the fight against terrorism is also forcing the government to reconsider its election agenda.
Mon 10/1/01 Oil and Gas Royalty Trusts
We have reinitiated coverage of the oil and gas royalty trust sector with lower commodity price assumptions resulting in a cautiously optimistic outlook. The average one-year total return for the group is 27%, comprised mostly of forecast cash distributions. Our estimates are based on average forecast prices of US$25.00/barrel for crude and US$3.00/thousand cubic foot for natural gas in 2002. As the royalty trusts are expected to faced with lower commodity prices and higher production decline rates, the business environment will be more challenging and replacing reserve bases will put pressure on balance sheets. Natural gas prices in particular are expected to be more volatile than oil prices in the near term so we recommend investors focus on oil-levered trusts including Provident (PVE.UN), APF Energy (AY.UN-TSE), Viking Energy (VKR.UN-TSE), and ARC Energy Trust (AET.UN-TSE), which has a conservative payout policy and flexible balance sheet. We expect near-term weakness in commodity prices to put downward pressure on underlying unit prices until the winter demand season begins. - Brian Ector
28/Sep/2001 Oil & Gas Industry
OPEC ministers met yesterday to discussed weather or not a fourth cut in production was warranted in light of oil's dramatic price decline. Although there are some signs that the cartel has been strained over recent weeks, the group of 11 member nations agreed not to reduce production in an attempt to buoy prices. OPEC has stated that the desired range for oil falls between U$22.00 and U$28.00 per barrel. As of the close yesterday, a barrel of oil stood at U$23.25 per barrel. The commodity continues to be volatile and OPEC may have merely delayed the inevitable. Ministers have agreed to convene on November 14th in order to reassess the situation. Our commodity price forecast for oil remains U$27.00 this year and U$25.00 next year. - Portfolio Advisory Group
Tue 9/25/01 HOME HEATING BILLS MAY FALL BY HALF COMPARED TO LAST WINTER
Energy analysts say consumers will be spending much less on heating costs and possibly, at the pumps, in light of tumbling energy prices.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/09/25/Consumers/energyprices_010925
Wed 9/5/01 DIESEL-POWERED FUEL CELL INVENTED
Chemical engineers have developed a prototype fuel cell that they say is the first to run on a readily available liquid fuel source: ordinary diesel fuel.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/09/05/fuelcell_diesel01905
5/Sep/2001 ANDERSON EXPLORATION IN $4.6 BILLION US TAKEOVER DEAL WITH DEVON
Shares of Anderson Exploration gushed on Tuesday after Devon Energy rolled out a $4.6 billion US takeover bid for the Calgary company.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/09/04/anderson_10904
31/Aug/2001 Natural Gas Prices
The American Gas Association announced on Wednesday that it estimated that another 76 billion cubic feet (bcf) had been added to U.S. storage the previous week, in line with expectations. Storage is now 76% full compared to 65% a year ago and an average of 69% over the previous five years. U.S. natural gas prices remained relatively steady yesterday, closing at U$2.44/mcf. Canadian prices spiked up yesterday due to the ongoing fire of a gas liquids facility owned by BP near Edmonton. This fire, which is now six days old, has forced some liquids-rich gas producers to curtail production removing about 3% of that region's overall output. Since the beginning of the year, gas prices have been declining principally due to a strong retreat in industrial demand and to a lesser extent moderate weather conditions. In our opinion, natural gas prices will not firm until the demand for energy from the industrial sector recovers. We have been forecasting natural prices of U$4.30/mcf for both 2001 and 2002. This forecast now appears to be aggressive and could be lowered. For the time being we favour the integrated and crude oil levered producers. Our top picks are Petro-Canada (PCA-TSE), Suncor Energy (SU-TSE), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-TSE) and Nexen (NXY-TSE). - David Stenason
Aug 23 Oil Inventories Heading Lower, Prices Will Stay Firm
Crude oil inventories have been receding over the past few weeks, with a bigger than expected drop announced yesterday, which has helped to support spot prices above the $25/bbl level. This inventory reduction comes at a time .... www.bcaresearch.com/public/highlights.asp?pre=PRE-20010823.GIF
21/Aug CHRÉTIEN RELATES OIL, GAS TO SOFTWOOD LUMBER TRADE
Prime Minister Jean Chrétien jumped into the softwood lumber dispute with the United States Tuesday, saying if the U.S. wants Canada's oil and gas it should treat Canada fairly when it comes to softwood lumber.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/08/21/lumber010821
17/Aug/2001 Oil & Gas Industry
Natural gas prices rose by $0.30 yesterday after the American Gas Association (AGA) announced that net inventory additions for the week were well below expectations. We believe this is directly attributable to the heat wave that has covered North America over the past week. Record high temperatures had air conditioners working overtime, increasing the demand for gas fired electricity and causing inventory draw downs. We do not however, believe that weather alone will significantly increase the price for natural gas. The more important catalyst seems to be the demand fuelled through increased industrial activity. Our forecast for natural gas (U$4.30 per mcf) is predicated on a recovery of the North American economy. At present natural gas inventories are at 69% of capacity, up from 62% a year ago. - David Stenason
August 5, 2001 Feeling OPEC's Pain
By PAUL KRUGMAN There's no people like oil people.
www.nytimes.com/2001/08/05/opinion/05KRUG.html?todaysheadlines
Wed 7/25/01 6:18 AM Putting brakes on sprawl By: HENRY AUBIN
So far, the big complainers in this country over the terms of the revived Kyoto Protocol are people involved in Alberta's oil and gas industry. That will change. The climate-change accord, agreed to by Canada and 177 other countries, will eventually provoke moans in all parts of Canada - including the Montreal region.
The good news is that Canada's obligation under the pact to curb greenhouse gases will probably affect this region less than most of the country's other urban areas, mainly because Quebec industry as a whole relies more on clean hydro-power than on fossil fuels, the big contributor to global warming.
Tue 7/24/01 7:00 PM OILPATCH CAUTIONS AGAINST KYOTO The Alberta government and the oil and gas industry are telling the federal government not to implement a deal to cut greenhouse gases.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/07/24/kyoto010724
Sun 7/22/0 MIXED REACTION TO PM'S PIPELINE CHOICE Prime Minister Jean Chrétien's endorsement of the MacKenzie Valley northern pipeline route is causing mixed reaction at home.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/07/22/north_pipe010722
Tue 7/17/01 10:28 AM Natural Gas Price Forecast
We are lowering our 2001 natural gas price forecast to U$4.30/mcf (down from U$4.95/mcf). Our 2002 forecast remains unchanged at U$4.30/mcf. During the first half of 2001 natural gas averaged U$5.32/mcf and the spot price closed yesterday at U$3.07/mcf. Natural gas prices have been hurt by lower demand and greater supply. Slow U.S. economic activity, particularly in the key manufacturing areas, and lower electricity demand for air conditioning have reduced demand for natural gas. Strong drilling activity throughout North America continues unabated and gas storage levels have now surged ahead of both last year's level as well as the average of the previous three years. We expect all of the natural gas levered stocks to remain under pressure throughout the next two to three months. The only gas levered stock on which we have retained a 1-Strong Buy ranking is PanCanadian Petroleum (PCP, Target Price: $60.00). PCP is scheduled to be spun off from Canadian Pacific Ltd. this fall. Weak share prices may trigger further take-over offers for gas levered companies. The two targets at the top of our list are Anderson Exploration (AXL, Target Price: $33.00) and Rio Alto Exploration (RAX, Target Price: $32.00 - David Stenason
Mon 7/9/01 2:19 PM Oil and Gas Sector
In view of declining oil and natural gas prices in the near term, we maintain our cautious stance toward energy stocks. However we believe that patient investors with longer-term horizons will realize attractive gains. Our current stance is that the integrated oils are the best way to play the sector and we believe the group is poised to report strong second quarter 2001 profits toward the end of July. The average year-over-year operating earnings growth is expected to be close to 40%. While the overall financial results are expected to be slightly weaker than during the first quarter due to lower commodity prices, we expect all companies to record one-time earnings improvements for reduced provincial tax rates in Alberta and Ontario. Refining margins have strengthened which will support downstream results, although seasonal declines in sales volumes will likely dampen the positive impacts. While overall profit growth momentum is slowing, absolute levels continue to be more than sufficient to support existing share buyback and capital expenditure programs. Our Top Picks continue to be: Suncor Energy (SU–TSE) which is on track to double its oil sands production over the next year, providing long-term sales and profit visibility; and Petro-Canada which continues to buyback shares. We maintain 1-Strong Buy recommendations for the shares of both companies. - Duncan Mathieson
Thu 7/5/01 7:00 PM CANADIAN OIL COMPANY SIEZED AT GUNPOINT A Canadian oil company operating in Russia says it has been the victim of a hostile takeover - at the business end of a machine gun.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/07/05/can_rus_oil010705
Thu 7/5/01 7:00 PM OIL DEAL MAY PUMP BILLIONS INTO EAST TIMOR Australia and East Timor signed an agreement Thursday that outlines how they plan to share revenue from a rich ocean petroleum deposit.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/07/05/timoroil_010705
Thu 7/5/01 7:00 PM IRAQ ACCEPTS NEW OIL-FOR-FOOD PROGRAM Iraq has accepted the terms of a new UN Security Council resolution that extends the oil-for-food program imposed on Iraq for another five months.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/07/05/iraq010705
25/Jun/2001 8:42 SEARCH FOR OIL MARKS ALTA. HUNTING GROUNDS A U.S. company's search for oil in Alberta has left a criss-cross pattern of severed trees on traditional hunting grounds, worrying some aboriginal people in the area. cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/06/24/oil010624
Oil and Sudan
The U.S. House of Representatives has expressed understandable outrage at the 18-year civil war in Sudan by voting to prohibit oil companies with operations there from raising capital in the United States or listing their shares on U.S. stock markets. If approved by the Senate and the White House, the measure could force Calgary-based Talisman Energy Corp.[TLM] to give up its listing on the New York Stock Exchange (although the company disputes that interpretation).
The civil war in Sudan is a ghastly affair that everyone would like to see ended. The conflict has cost 2 million lives amid a host of civil-rights violations, including reports of slavery, use of child soldiers and indiscriminate bombing of civilians. The role of foreign oil companies operating in Sudan is particularly controversial; there is credible evidence to suggest that oil revenues aid the government in its ruthless campaign against rebel forces (although Talisman insists that its presence in the country helps provide schools, hospitals and clean drinking water).
12/Jun/2001 Canadian Oil & Gas
We are lowering our recommendations and price targets on several of the gas levered producers that we cover. Softer gas prices are a concern at least over the near term. Year-to-date, the NYMEX gas price has averaged U$5.53/mcf. In order for our forecast of U$4.95/mcf to be realized, the price must average U$4.53 for the balance of the year. NYMEX gas prices closed at U$3.94/mcf on Friday, June 8, 2001. Near-term negatives for natural gas pricing are lower demand levels due to the slowdown in the North American economy and greater supply as drilling activity remains very active. A potential rebound for pricing exists with the advent of hotter weather, which would cause a surge in air conditioning/electricity demand. Over the intermediate-to-longer term, fundamentals for gas pricing remain strong as economic conditions are expected to improve and U.S. gas-fired electricity plant build out continues. Please see the Daily EDGE for a complete list of our recommendation and target price changes. Over the near-term we favour oil-levered companies. Our top pick recommendations are currently Canadian Natural Resources - David Stenason
Fri 6/1/01 9:24 AM Oil Price Forecast CSFB is raising their 2001 WTI crude oil price forecast from $23.50/bbl to $26.50/bbl. For 2002 the forecast rises to $21.00/bbl from $18.50/bbl. As for US gas the forecast remains at $4.60/mcf for 2001, and rises to $3.70 for 2002 (from $3.50). The forecast revisions are based strong US demand, erratic Iraqi output, rising Middle East tensions and better than expected OPEC compliance. We still see weakening fundamentals leading to a fall in crude prices in the second half of this year (as prices revert to mid-cycle mean) during which we prefer to be positioned defensively.
Thu 5/31/01 9:47 AM Gulf Canada (GOU - $12.18) Recommendation: 7-Tender Target: $12.40 Conoco Inc, the fifth-largest U.S. oil company agreed to buy Gulf Canada (GOU-TSE) for US$6.3 billion in cash and debt, which equates to C$12.40 per Gulf share (all cash). The offer price is largely in line with our forecast net asset value and slightly above our one-year target price of C$12.00. Conoco's offer equates to a 35% premium to Gulf shares' closing price on May 25th and represents 3.5x forecast 2001 cash flow per share (CFPS), $9.60 per BOE of proven reserves as well as $34,913 per daily barrel of production. All measures are slightly higher than recent comparable takeovers and support our belief that the consolidation theme in the oil and gas sector is not yet over. We believe a key reason for Conoco's offer for Gulf is to gain exposure to a long term natural gas supply in the Mackenzie Delta which also supports the consolidation theme focussing on natural gas producers. We recommend that Gulf Canada shareholders tender to this offer and redeploy the proceeds within the senior exploration and production sector for potential takeover (top picks include Talisman, AEC and PanCanadian) and or to the integrated oil sector for more conservative exposure to commodity prices (top picks include Petro-Canada and Suncor Energy). - D. Mathieson
Mon 5/28/01 10:15 AM Compton Petroleum (CMT - $5.22) Recommendation: 2-Buy Target: $7.50 Compton reported first quarter financial results that were ahead of our expectations. Fully diluted cash flow per share was $0.47 compared with $0.17 a year ago and ahead of our estimate of $0.44. We continue to forecast cash flow per share of $1.80 and $1.85 for 2001 and 2002, respectively. These prices include the impact of Compton's proposed acquisition of Hornet Energy, which is expected to close in early July. Compton's average realized natural gas price for the quarter was $7.93 per mcf vs. $2.84 a year ago. For 2001, the remaining natural gas hedge is a costless collar on approximately 6 mmcf per day from April 1 to October 1 with a floor price of $6.85 per mcf and a ceiling of $8.63 per mcf. We are maintaining our 2-Buy recommendation on the shares of Compton with a 12-month target of $7.50 per share representing a 4.0 times multiple on 2002 cash flow per share estimates. - David Stenason
Mon 5/28/01 10:15 AM Athabasca Oil Sands Trust/Canadian Oil Sands Trust (AOS.UN - $39.70) Recommendation: n.a. Target: n.a.
- D. Mathieson
Fri 5/4/01 10:34 AM Oil & Gas Sector The Canadian Oil & Gas sector's recent weakness stems from lower commodity prices.Oil and natural gas prices have declined due to inventory increases that indicated that the energy shortage may not be as critical as previously expected. We note however that U.S. storage levels are still at only 26% of capacity compared with 32% at this point last year. Our forecast for average natural gas prices in 2001 and 2002 remains at US$4.95 per mcf and US$4.30 per mcf, versus today's level of US$4.46 per mcf. While we believe the longer term positive story for natural gas levered stocks continues to be intact, we recognize that there may be some near- term risk to current valuations. We expect natural gas prices to spike back up this summer as air conditioning season in the U.S. sunbelt kicks in. Longer term, our favoured gas levered names continue to be PanCanadian Petroleum - David Stenason
Wed 5/2/01 7:00 PM OIL STOCKS HIT HARD BY HIGH INVENTORY REPORT Oil stocks were the biggest net losers on the TSE Wednesday, after oil prices fell sharply on reports of an unexpectedly-large increase in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/05/02/oil_tmc010502
May 1, 2001 Cheney Promotes Increasing Supply as Energy Policy WASHINGTON, April 30 — Vice President Dick Cheney said today that oil, coal and natural gas would remain the United States' primary energy resources for "years down the road" and that the Bush administration's energy strategy would aim mainly to increase supply of fossil fuels, rather than limit demand.
www.nytimes.com/2001/05/01/politics/01CHEN.html
Apr 2001

Thu 4/19/01 7:00 PM PROFITS SURGE AT PANCANADIAN PETROLEUM Higher commodity prices and expanded natural gas product helped PanCanadian Petroleum Ltd. post an eighth straight quarter of record financial results, the company said Thursday.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/04/19/pancanadian_010419
Thu 4/19/01 9:44 AM High gas prices are here to stay By: LEVON SEVUNTS The Gazette High gasoline prices are here to stay, the Canadian Petroleum Products Institute warned yesterday as the price of regular unleaded in Montreal jumped 7 cents to 87.9 cents a litre. And Jean-Thomas Bernard, head of the economic and environmental research group at Universite Laval, predicted that the pump price could hit $1.
Thu 4/19/01 9:44 AM Canadian Oil & Gas - Gas Price Forecast Raised
We are increasing our 2001 natural gas price forecast from C$5.50/mcf to C$7.00/mcf. Our 2002 forecast remains unchanged at C$6.00/mcf. Our Canadian gas price forecast equates to NYMEX prices of approximately U$4.95/mcf and U$4.30/mcf for 2001 and 2002, respectively. The winter heating season is over and storage levels are beginning to be rebuilt. However, they are being rebuilt from record low levels. U.S. gas storage is at 21% of capacity and Canadian storage is 14% full. Water levels and snowcaps in western North America are at their lowest levels in decades. This summer will likely lead to drought conditions in these regions, and lead to reduced capability to produce electricity from hydro. This will put more pressure on natural gas demand as the air conditioning season kicks in in the U.S. sunbelt. Demand for both storage refills and to make electrons could lead to another price spike this summer. Our top ranked senior recommendations for natural gas exposure are Alberta Energy, Target $105), Anderson Exploration (AXL, Target $47) and PanCanadian Petroleum (PCP $56). - David Stenason
Thu 4/19/01 9:44 AM Energy Utilities and Pipelines
We are reducing our one-year price targets for Energy Utility and Pipeline company shares due to: a) higher than expected 10-year Canada bond rates; and b) negative investor sentiment surrounding the sector. We have eased our target P/E ratios by between 0.3x and 1.0x for all companies in the group except for TransAlta, which we continue to isolate as a company with strong growth prospects with further upside likely for its share price. We note however that the risk profile for TransAlta has increased significantly with the deregulation of electricity markets and the company's exposure to electricity prices, especially in the U.S. We had previously forecast that the relative stock price outperformance for interest sensitive stocks would likely be over in the second quarter of 2001 due to the magnitude and duration of strength in the group since the third quarter of 2000. We maintain this sentiment and note that while FOMC cuts will result in temporarily lower interest rates (positive to interest sensitive stocks), eventually, U.S. economic prospects will improve (with higher bond yields) resulting in the selling of defensive sub-sector stocks in favour of more high risk growth stocks. - Sam Kanes
11/Apr/2001 TALISMAN PICKS UP PETROMET FOR $731 MILLION CASH Talisman Energy Inc. went shopping Tuesday and picked up Petromet Resources Ltd. in a deal worth $731 million in cash.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/04/10/petromet see T-TLM chart
11/Apr/2001 TALISMAN ADMITS SUDAN MISTAKES; DEFENDS ROLE IN WAR-TORN COUNTRY Talisman Energy acknowledged Tuesday that it's made mistakes in Sudan, but defended its controversial role in the African country in what it called its first "Corporate Social Responsibility Report".
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/04/10/talisman010410
March 2001

Mon 3/26/01 9:36 AM Oil & Gas Sector
OPEC's recent decision to reduce crude oil production quotas by 1 million barrels per day to approximately 27 million barrels per day marked the second time that the cartel has cut production so far this year. We continue to be impressed that the cartel is taking a proactive approach to balancing supply with demand. This is in stark contrast to previous responses that were taken only after a crisis situation (ie. U$10 per barrel price) had developed. As long as the cartel continues to act in this proactive manner, we believe the stated price target can be achieved. The continued low levels of inventories provide a stable backdrop for the production cuts the cartel is contemplating. For leverage to crude oil, we continue to recommend Imperial Oil . - Duncan Mathieson
Wed 3/21/01 10:23 AM Energy Utility & Pipeline Trusts
We are raising our one-year target prices for most pipeline and energy utility trusts by between 2% and 3% to recognize: i) the material reduction in short and medium term Canadian interest rates; ii) lower corporate bond yield spreads; and iii) first quarter 2001 RRSP contributions that have gone into money market funds that may migrate to lower-risk income product. Demand for trusts may also rise due to the impact of the lack of new income-oriented equity product which may be heightened through the proposed takeovers of Luscar Coal Income Fund and Labrador Iron Ore that could put between $700 million and $800 million into income trust owner hands in the second quarter of 2001. Our favoured trusts will be those that partially derive their income from gas-burning cogneration units or gas to liquids conversions that are faring better in an environment with Canadian natural gas prices falling 50% since January 2001. Our top picks are TransCanada Power, rated 2-Buy and with a one-year target price of $31.70 (up from $31.00) and Fort Chicago Energy, rated 2-Buy, with a one-year target price of $10.70 (up from $10.50). - S. Kanes
Sat 3/17/01 7:00 PM GAS PRICES EXPECTED TO RISE AFTER OPEC CUTS PRODUCTION At a meeting of OPEC oil ministers Saturday, members voted to cut production in order to keep prices high and protect the industry from a world economic slowdown.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/03/17/opec_production010317
Fri 3/16/01 7:00 PM ENBRIDGE BUYS U.S. NATURAL GAS COMPANY FOR $900 MILLION Enbridge Inc. of Calgary said Friday morning that it is buying Midcoast Energy Resources Inc. of Houston for $27 US per share.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/03/16/enbridge_010316
15/Mar/2001 12:05 Oil & Gas Sector - OPEC Preview OPEC members will meet on March 16th to review their outlook for world oil supply and demand, and to decide whether to make a further cut to production targets. We believe that given the cartel's recent production discipline and their stated desire to maintain oil prices in the U$22-U$28 range, OPEC will likely further reduce its daily production quota by between 0.5 and 1.5 million barrels. The cuts would be designed to offset the impact of near-term seasonal declines in demand during the second quarter and the risk of significant reductions in crude oil demand growth due to a global economic slowdown over the medium term. We are maintaining our WTI forecast for 2001 at U$27.00 per barrel as the traditional spread between WTI and the OPEC basket has averaged $1.97 per barrel since 1995. For leverage to crude oil, we continue to recommend Imperial Oil (IMO-TSE), Suncor Energy (SU-TSE), and Petro-Canada (PCA-TSE) in the integrated oil group. Within the producer segment, we would highlight Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-TSE), Nexen (NXY-TSE), and Baytex Energy (BTE-TSE). - D. Mathieson
Fri 3/9/01 7:00 PM NORTHERN LEADERS PITCH PIPELINE PLANS The leaders of Yukon and the Northwest Territories were in Calgary Friday to promote competing versions of a Northern natural gas pipeline.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/03/09/nothern_pipeline010309
Oil and Gas Royalty Trusts
Tue 3/6/01 9:53 AM
We believe recent acquisitions by the major oil and gas royalty trusts have increased the appeal of the income trusts among investors. Since the beginning of 2001, three major trusts (EnerMark, ARC Energy and PrimeWest) have made large acquisitions that have resulted in each of their market capitalizations rising through the $1 billion and have put them in a position to grow their cash distributions. We would expect these trusts to benefit from their increased liquidity and the expected flow of funds into dividend funds this RRSP season. When compared to intermediate-sized oil and gas exploration companies, we view the trusts as a lower risk operators versus higher risk exploration and development companies while the two groups trade at similar price to cash flow and price to net asset valuation. In addition, we feel there is less risk to our return targets for EnerMark, ARC and PrimeWest than for common shares of oil and gas trusts as a significant portion of the expected return comes from distributions. We note that PrimeWest has just confirmed an increase for its distributable cash through January 2002. - G. Hannochko/C. Sterritt

February 2001

Mon 2/26/01 10:11 AM
PanCanadian Petroleum (PCP - $43.15) Recommendation: 1-Strong Buy Target: $52.00 PanCanadian has announced it will proceed with the development of the Deep Panuke natural gas field offshore of Nova Scotia. The company expects to increase its natural gas production by 400 million cubic feet per day when the project is fully onstream in 2005, representing a 42% increase over its total natural gas production base reported in 2000. We are also encouraged by management's estimate for the total reserve base to be "in the order of one trillion cubic feet", which we believe may be conservative. When producing at the area's indicated plateau rate, we expect the field to be capable of contributing $2.00 per share in cash flow for PanCanadian. The development of Deep Panuke further illustrates PanCanadian's well balanced asset base that includes a strong natural gas and liquids base in Western Canada and the U.S. In addition to approroximately 20% share price appreciation forecast over the next 12 months, we expect PanCanadian shareholders to receive an approximate 10% dividend as proposed under the Canadian Pacific restructuring. - D. Mathieson
Fri 2/23/01 8:13 PM
PANCANADIAN TO SPEND $1 BILLION ON GAS FIELD OFF NOVA SCOTIA PanCanadian Petroleum has decided to proceed with the development of the Deep Panuke natural gas field off Nova Scotia. The company expects to spend $1 billion developing the field --; a huge boon to Nova Scotia's economy.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/02/23/pancanadian010223
Wed 2/21/01 9:44 AM Pipelines and Energy Utilities
We are raising our one-year share price targets for pipeline and energy utility companies to recognize the more favourable interest rate environment, further indications of a harder landing for the U.S. economy, continued negative correlation of pipeline and energy utility stock prices to Nasdaq action and flows of funds. We are now forecasting 10-year Canadian Government bonds to yield 4.90% in the first quarter of 2002, confirming a further downward direction in rates, which corresponds to higher relative valuations for interest sensitive companies including pipelines and utilities. Further corporate revenue and profit warnings are implying a harder landing for the U.S. economy, which supports interest in more stable, regulated earnings businesses. As well, recent successful yield product financings are confirming an increase in investor demand in this sector. We are raising our target P/E multiples by about 0.5 multiple points which will equate to about 4% higher target prices for common equities and income trust products in the sector. - S. Kanes
12/Feb/2001 WORLD DEMAND FOR OIL DOWN, PRICES STEADY
An economic slowdown has created a drop in the demand for oil around the world, says a Paris-based energy policy agency.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/02/12/oil_prices010212
Mon 2/12/01 6:53 AM Is CP turning into an oil play? By: JAMES FERRABEE
Canadian Pacific Ltd. (CP seems to be pushing its railway on to a siding as it begins to feature itself as an oil-and-gas gusher. In fact, it might not be too long before it shunts out of the railway business altogether, plus a few of its other diverse interests, from hotels and ships to coal.
There is a sweet taste to the oil-and-gas business these days, one reason CP was able to report its seventh quarter in a row exceeding analysts' expectations. It was also a key factor in CP's blowout profits, which tripled between 1999 and 2000 from $584 million to $1.76 billion. CP's 87 per cent owned PanCanadian Petroleum's share of last year's earnings was $894 million, a whopping 49 per cent of the total.
12/Feb/2001 Integrated Oil Sector
Following the release of strong fourth quarter and full year 2000 operating results, we remain bullish toward the Integrated Oil Sector. For the full year, the sector generated operating earnings growth of 191% and cash flow growth of 71%, driven by higher oil and natural gas prices and improving profitability on both the upstream (expoloration and production) and downstream (refining and marketing) sides. Our bullish stance is based on continued strength in commodity prices as well as the sustainable improvements in efficiency of companies' refining and marketing operations. The excess cash flow has given Petro-Canada (PCA-TSE), Imperial Oil (IMO-TSE) and Shell Canada (SHC-TSE) the means to buy back stock while Suncor (SU-TSE) continues to pay down debt. Our top picks continue to be Petro-Canada, due to its Canadian East Coast low-cost oil projects; Suncor Energy, for which we have raised our one-year share price target to $48.00 from $42.00 due to the company's "Project Millenium" oil sands expansion that will come into play in 2001; and Imperial Oil (IMOTSE), with its sector leading profitability profile plus cash position of $1 billion providing the company with superior financial flexibility. - D. Mathieson
5/Feb/2001 BERKLEY PETROLEUM REJECTS SWEETENED TAKEOVER BID Berkley Petroleum Corp., a Calgary-based oil and natural gas provider, has rejected what it's calling a "marginally improved unsolicited officer" by Hunt Oil Co. and says it's encouraging other companies to make counteroffers.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/02/05/berkley_hunt010205
January 2001

22/Jan/2001 INDEPENDENT GAS STATIONS SQUEEZED AGAIN
A gas price war in the Laurentians is threatening the survival of many independent gas stations. montreal.cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/01/21/gas20010121
18/Jan/2001 OPEC SLASHES OIL PRODUCTION
OPEC, the organization of oil producing countries, is cutting production by five per cent to keep oil prices from dropping. But some believe the move will lead to even higher gas prices. cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/01/17/opec_cuts010117
Oil & Gas - Integrateds
12/Jan/2001 Fourth quarter operating results at the integrated oil companies are expected to continue the excellent results reported over the first nine months of the year and, with the exception of Suncor (SU-TSE), all of the integrated oil companies are positioned to exceed our current estimates. The resource sector is expected to continue to report strong results as high natural gas prices are expected to offset the impact of lower oil prices and deteriorating heavy oil economics. The group will begin to report earnings on January 18th with Imperial Oil (IMO - TSE) and Suncor. Petro Canada (PCA - TSE) is expected to report on January 23rd with Shell Canada (SHC-TSE) on January 24th and Husky Energy on February 14th. This will be the first full reporting quarter for Husky Energy following the acquisition of Renaissance Energy. Despite our outlook for the fourth quarter, Suncor Energy remains our top pick in the sector given the strong upside potential from its oil sands expansion (Project Millenium). - D. Mathieson
Sun Jan 14 00:17:15 2001 Job surplus, housing shortage in oil patch
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/templates/view.cgi?/news/2001/01/13/lloydhouses010113
10/Jan/2001 Oil & Gas Sector - Record Spreads Between Light and Heavy Oil
Over the past several months the price spread between light and heavy oil has widened to record levels. This is due to several factors: a shorter peak demand season last year for heavy oil; lower asphalt inventories; OPEC production increases of heavy oil in 2000; and greater demand for light oil as refiners try to restore low distillate inventories. Another factor reducing netbacks on heavy oil has been the high cost of diluents which are required to dilute heavy oil to ensure efficient transportation through pipelines. We believe that with more stable oil markets, production cuts from OPEC, and the beginning of the roofing and paving season (activities which use a lot of heavy oil) the economics of heavy oil will improve. Over the next quarter, however, results at companies with significant exposure to heavy oil will likely suffer. Such companies include Canadian Natural Resources (the most leveraged senior producer to heavy oil), Imperial Oil (the largest producer of heavy oil), Baytex Energy (a predominant producer of heavy oil) and Husky Energy (which has a large and growing heavy oil business). As a result, we would wait to buy these companies as their share prices may weaken on the release of fourth quarter results. - D. Mathieson
8/Jan/2001 OIL PRICES RISE AS OPEC AGREES ON PRODUCTION CUTS
Oil prices climbed slightly Monday after the OPEC oil cartel agreed to cut crude oil supplies. cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/01/08/oil010108
Oil & Gas Sector - OPEC Production Cuts Looming
During the past twelve months OPEC has had to increase production levels four times in order to move the price of oil toward the cartel's stated target range of U$22 and U$28 per barrel. We believe that OPEC has the ability to effectively manage the world's oil supply by keeping supply and demand in balance. Earlier attempts at managing supply pushed the price of oil upwards of U$38 per barrel as the cartel underestimated the market's reaction to low inventory levels and the high taxation of transportation fuels. We believe OPEC needs to cut production by 1.5 to 2.0 million barrels a day in order to avoid a substantial inventory rebuild after the winter heating season and ensure commodity price stability. At present the world is well supplied with crude oil and softening economic growth could crimp demand. Our analysis shows that the current price of oil reflected in the Oil & Gas sector's valuation is approximately U$22 per barrel. If the market were to recognize our target of U$27 per barrel the sector could rally as much as 25% from current levels. Investors interested in gaining leverage to crude oil should focus on the integrated and senior oil producers. Our top picks in this sector are Suncor Energy (SU - TSE), Nexen Inc (NXY - TSE), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ - TSE) and Talisman Energy (TLM - TSE). For more aggressive accounts we would recommend our top pick among junior companies is Baytex Energy (BTE - TSE)(. - D. Mathieson
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8/Jan/2001 OIL PRICES RISE AS OPEC AGREES ON PRODUCTION CUTS
Oil prices climbed slightly Monday after the OPEC oil cartel agreed to cut crude oil supplies. FULL STORY: cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/01/08/oil010108
See MoneyNotes on the Stock Mkts
Thu 1/4/01 7:00 PM CANADIAN ANALYSTS PREDICT STABLE GASOLINE PRICES
Despite renewed concern that OPEC may push up the price of oil by cutting production, a research group in Alberta is convinced the outlook for consumers remains bright. cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/01/04/opec010104
Thu 1/4/01 7:00 PM NATURAL GAS RATES TO GO UP IN MANITOBA
It may soon cost more to heat a home in Manitoba. Centra Gas has applied to raise its rates 32 per cent. cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/01/04/mb_gashike010104
4/Jan/2001 NORTH AMERICAN RECESSION UNLIKELY: CIBC
Some market watchers have been mentioning the "R" word recently. But according to the CIBC's economists, a recession in Canada or the United States is unlikely this year or next.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2001/01/03/cibc010103
December 2000

Fri 12/29/00 7:00 PM PAUL MARTIN PAY RAISE COMING MONDAY
The largest tax cut in Canadian history goes into effect on Monday, and just about every taxpaying Canadian will feel its effect immediately. ...The personal tax cuts will not be phased in – they're coming all at once. For a family of four earning $60,000, it will mean $1,000 they get to keep next year.
Basic personal exemption rises $181 to $7,231 (in other words, you will pay no income tax on the first $7,231 of your 2001 income) ...international postage will rise 10 cents to $1.05. [use your computer]
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2000/12/29/taxcut001229
21/Dec/2000 Canada isn't likely to have a recession By: JAY BRYAN
As the holiday season arrives, it seems that it won't be a Merry Christmas for many retailers or a Happy New Year for investors. But appearances might be deceiving.
Even though it's clear that consumers across the country are tightening their grip on wallets, it is also clear that spending cuts are focused on big-ticket items like cars, with most of the retail industry continuing to see increases in sales.
Notes for November 2000

30/Nov/2000
Stock meltdown might not portend economic one
By: JAY BRYAN The Gazette
The stock market is starting to look a little scary, and the latest news from the larger economy doesn't seem to offer much solace. Nevertheless, there are more than a few analysts who believe that all will end well. How can this be? After all, the Nasdaq high-tech index has fallen more than 45 per cent from its peak in March.
See JAY BRYAN on the Brain Drain

JAY BRYAN

13/Nov/2000 OIL PRICES RISE AS OPEC PRODUCTION HIKE SEEMS UNLIKELY
Crude oil prices rose 34 cents US to $34.56 US a barrel Monday, as OPEC oil ministers appointed an outspoken opponent of production increases to be the cartel's new secretary general.
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/view?/news/2000/11/13/oil001113

Benard Landry

Benard Landry & JAY BRYAN on
The Mosel Vitelic Inc. Taiwanese Memory Chip Plant?
$3-billion factory 1,500 jobs and 6,500 indirect jobs
But what if, in the next down draft, they fail... is the risk too hig

STEPHEN JARISLOWSKY
The worm has turned. Reality, to the extent that stock-market emotions permit, has briefly returned.
The high-tech bubble is gradually coming apart. First, it was the demise of the dot-coms - San Francisco entrepreneurs are joining the ranks of the unemployed. Next to fall was the computer industry, and now, it is extending more and more to the whole sector..