Wednesday, January 7, 2009 - AlphaPro Management Opens the Market
Howard Atkinson, President, Horizons BetaPro ETFs and Adam Felesky, CEO, JovFunds and BetaPro Management Inc, along with representatives from Jovian Capital Corporation and JovInvestment Management Inc. opened the market today to celebrate the listing of Horizons AlphaPro Managed S&P/TSX 60 (R) ETF.
Wednesday 24 June 2009
ETFs vs. Mutual Funds
Fund expert Doug Fabian tells why he now prefers exchange traded funds to traditional open-end mutual funds. Ticker: VPL
Even when down, bet on the best From a technical perspective, all 10 dogs -- except Alcoa and JP Morgan Chase -- have "sorry-looking charts" and are below their 200-day moving averages, says Ron Meisels of Montreal-based Phases & Cycles Inc. Non-dog Dow stocks Caterpillar, J&J and Procter & Gamble Co. also show poor technicals, he said.
Thursday 11 June 2009 Ron Meisels BUY: SNC-LAVALIN GROUP (SNC-4: $43.40).
Wednesday 10 June 2009
THE MODEST CORRECTION/CONSOLIDATION OF LATE-MAY
HAS NOW GIVEN WAY TO THE START OF A NEW UP LEG.
Monday, Jun. 08, 2009 03:00PM EDT Engineering & Contruction ETF
BNN Video Niall McGee reports the latest on ETFs. Catch ETF Update weekdays on BNN
Monday 01 June 2009 Ron Meisels picks U.S. blue-chip performers - The Globe and Mail
For the past two days we've looked at Ron Meisels' picks and pans of Canadian blue chip ... and has also worked at the Montreal Gazette and Canadian Press. ... For the past two days we've looked at Ron Meisels' picks and pans of Canadian blue chip stocks. Today, we'll look at his picks for the S&P 100. Mr. Meisels is the technical analyst for Phases and Cycles Inc. and writes a technical analysis feature for Saturday's Report on Business.
Tuesday 12 May 2009 THE MINI-BULL HAD A GOOD START,
BUT IT MAY NEED A BREAK TO BUILD UP ITS STRENGTH
BEFORE IT CONTINUES.
TECHNICAL GREEN SHOOTS ARE APPEARING IN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS IS ALL HAPPENING AS STOCK PRICES CLIMB
THE PROVERBIAL WALL OF WORRY,
WHILE PORTFOLIO MANAGERS REMAIN BEARISH.
Tuesday 05 May 2009 14:30
ITS TIME FOR A MINI-BULL.
BUT FIRST A SMALL DECLINE.
Tuesday, April 14,2009 the Vernissage, 5 to 9pm, of MUHC Art Exhibit and Sale with the works of Nancy Lyden and other Wednesdayers. Also Apr 15th & 16th from 9 to 5
1650 Cedar Ave, 6th floor, Livingston Hall $25
Monday 23 March 2009
THE BREACH OF THE NOVEMBER LOWS
INCREASED THE RISK OF FURTHER DETERIORATION
ST. PATRICK MAY HAVE BROUGHT SOME TEMPORARY GREEN
INTO THE MARKET, BUT ANY SUSTAINABLE ADVANCE
WILL REQUIRE LENGTHY TECHNICAL REPAIR
Friday 20 March 2009 Which big names is Ron Meisels avoiding? Today, we'll look at the stocks he is avoiding and what kind of returns that group has produced versus his top picks in the past.
Let's examine the top picks of Ron Meisels, the technical analyst for Phases and Cycles Inc. Mr. Meisels writes a technical analysis feature for Saturday's Report on Business and is also the analyst behind the stocks in the recently-launched Horizons AlphaPro Managed S&P/TSX 60 exchange traded fund. This ETF is based on his TOP60 portfolio.
WHAT'S IN THE PORTFOLIO NOW?
Mr. Meisels is sitting on more than 40 per cent cash because he is drastically underweight the financial, industrial and telecom sectors. "We will probably reduce the cash position at the next revision," he said.
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY RALLY
HAS PASSED. THE RE-TEST OF THE NOVEMBER 21ST
LINE IN THE SAND MUST SUCCEED; OTHERWISE
THE BEARS WILL DRIVE THE MARKETS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER. Tuesday 03 March 2009
Tuesday 03 March 2009 from Wed1409 K is for Kondratieff who has made his first appearance in the MetropolitaIn
Thursday 26 February 2009
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY RALLY
HAS PASSED. THE RE-TEST OF THE NOVEMBER 21ST
LINE IN THE SAND MUST SUCCEED; OTHERWISE
THE BEARS WILL DRIVE THE MARKETS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER.
Wednesday 18 February 2009 We also extend our sincere thanks to the following individuals for their generous donations that have enabled us to establish scholarship funds to encourage and support outstanding KWPMP students each year: Wayne Deans, Partner, Deans Knight Capital Management; Ron Meisels, President, Phases & Cycles Inc; Georges Paulez, Managing Director & CEO, Mirabaud Canada; Patrick Phelan (BComm 87), Vice President, BMO Nesbitt Burns; and Ron Schwarz (BComm 91), Managing Director, CIBC World Markets. see Concordia Benefactors | Mentors
BAD NEWS KEEPS COMING,
BUT THE MARKETS REMAIN FIRM.
COULD A RALLY BE FAR BEHIND?
Talk turns to market recovery time ....
For the first time since 1958, the S&P/TSX composite's yield is higher than the 10-year Government of Canada bond: 4.8 per cent versus 3.4 per cent. Based on 10-year trend earnings, the index's price-to-earnings ratio is just a tad above 15, the cheapest since 1990, while the S&P 500's is 14, the cheapest since 1982. That points to long-run rates of return of around seven per cent for stocks, or about 10 per cent with dividends included.
The only concern is that if equities do suffer another setback it would drive dividends higher and leave them exposed to reduction. Indeed, the S&P 500 and the S&P/TSX are trading sharply below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages and in a distinct falling trend, suggesting markets could worsen before they get better, says Ron Meisels
THE OSCILLATORS INDICATE THAT WE ARE MOVING TOWARD THE
END OF A CORRECTIVE PHASE WITHIN THE UPTREND.
Friday 16 January 2009 Five ways to be a cheap investor Invest in ETFs
Exchange-traded funds are a hybrid of stocks and mutual funds – funds that trade on the market. Because they are not usually actively managed, they come with significantly lower management costs than mutual funds. The management expense ratios are typically below 1 per cent on ETFs, while mutual funds generally start at around 2 per cent.
7 Jan 2009 ETF Update
Howard Atkinson of Horizon BetaPro ETFs, will discuss the launch of the first actively managed ETF in Canada.
Paul Bagnell chats with Ron Meisels , president, Phases & Cycles. Horizons AlphaPeo Mge TSX 60 ETF sym HAX (TSX)
The S&P/TSX composite index rose about 21% to 11,272 in 2005, making it a good year to offset losses against, while keeping 2006 and 2007 free for future tax years, says Ron Meisels, president and technical analyst at Phases &Cycles.
But, Mr. Meisels says there are some things investors should consider before selling a stock. For instance, to claim a capital loss, the investor, their spouse or company must not buy back the shares for 30 days. He says the investor should also consider the prospect for each stock separately.
"Pretend you don't own the stock and ask yourself the question: If I didn't own the stock now, would I buy it now? If he answer is no, then get rid of it," he says.
Mr. Meisels says investors should also consider where the stock market might be next month if they plan to buy the stock back once the 30-day waiting period has ended. He said January was traditionally as strong month for the index, but technical analysis suggests the TSX has further to fall.
Saturday 06 December 2008 Paul Bagnell reports the latest on ETFs he misquotes me as "working for Desjardins" but gives the report on the Jov Talisman Fund & Ron's involvement
Tuesday 09 December 2008 Loblaw Companies (L : TSX : $34.00)
George Weston in talks with Grupo Bimbo to sell their baking business
BMO Nesbitt Burns maintains a "market perform", target of $32.50
Loblaw Companies (L : TSX : $33.30)
Major shift in strategy reflected by a possible sale of U.S. baking operations
Desjardins Securities continues "buy", 12-month target price is $36.00
Friday 12 December 2008 George Weston Ltd. (WN : TSX : $60.48)
In limbo after the sale to Bimbo
Credit Suisse continues "neutral", 12-month target price is $59.00
RBC Capital Markets continues "sector perform", 12-month target price is $68.00
Scotia Capital Markets continues "sector perform", 12-month target price is $63.50
Monday 03 November 2008 THE 40-YEAR CYCLE IS STILL ON TRACK.THE 40-YEAR CYCLE IS STILL ON TRACK.
Friday 31 October 2008 THE MARKET IS OVERSOLD.THE 40-YEAR CYCLE IS STILL ON TRACK.
Thursday 23 October 2008 THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT SELLING WAS EXHAUSTED ON THAT DAY,
AS LEVERAGED AND PANICKED INVESTORS CAPITULATED.
IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE WORST OF THE DECLINE HAS BEEN
SEEN. HOWEVER, MARKETS COULD STILL BE VOLATILE UNTIL
DECEMBER BEFORE A MAJOR RISE IS LIKELY TO BEGIN.
17 October 2008 THE FEAR-INDUCED SELL-OFF COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR A KICKBACK RALLY.
JovFunds Management Inc. Proposes to Convert the Jov Talisman Fund into an Actively Managed Exchange Traded Fund
<<
JovTalisman Fund Will Have Exclusive Access to Ron Meisels' Technical
And Analytical Research
>>
TORONTO, Oct. 14 /CNW/ - JovFunds Management Inc. ("JovFunds"), a
wholly-owned subsidiary of Jovian Capital Corporation ("Jovian") (JOV: TSX),
has called a special meeting of unitholders of the Jov Talisman Fund (the
"Fund") to approve changes to the investment objective and strategies of the
Fund and to approve the conversion of the Fund into an actively managed
Exchange Traded Fund ("ETF"). If approved by unitholders, the fundamental
investment objective of the Fund will be to achieve long-term capital growth
by investing primarily in equity securities that are constituents of the S&P
TSX 60 Index(R).
Ron Meisels has been an active analyst since 1971 and is the president
and founder of Phases & Cycles Inc. ("Phases & Cycles"), a firm specializing
in the independent research of Canadian securities. Mr. Meisels is the editor
for all Phases & Cycles publications including its TOP 60(R) portfolio report,
researching the best candidates among S&P/TSX 60 Index.
"We are excited to gain access to the analytical and technical research
that Ron provides," said Adam Felesky, Chief Executive Officer of JovFunds and
BetaPro Management Inc. "Ron's extensive knowledge and experience in technical
analysis of the S&P/TSX 60 will provide strong support for the Fund's adviser,
JovInvestment, and the launch of this product."
"I am very excited to be working with JovFunds on this new venture and to
have the opportunity to be part of one of Canada's first actively managed
ETFs," added Mr. Meisels.
The meeting will be held on December 1, 2008, and unitholders of record
on November 3, 2008, will be entitled to receive notice of and vote at the
meeting. If approved by unitholders, the Fund will be re-launched, subject to
regulatory approval, in December 2008 through a reorganization of the Series
A, F and I units of the Fund into the newly created series E units, and a name
change.
Upon approval, the Fund will be one of the first actively managed ETFs
offered in Canada listed on the TSX. It will be actively rebalanced, provide
inter-day liquidity and will have a lower MER.
"We are very excited to be taking the next step in the evolution of
exchange traded funds - to active management," said Mr. Felesky.
Additionally, JovFunds and the adviser to the Fund, JovInvestment
Management Inc. ("JovInvestment"), have entered into an agreement with Ron
Meisels, with immediate effect, to provide JovInvestment with exclusive access
to his analytical and technical research services for such purposes. Effective
immediately, Strategic Analysis (1994) Corporation wil cease to be the
sub-adviser of the Fund. JovInvestment will continue to act as portfolio
manager of the Fund.
About Ron Meisels
Prior to founding Phases & Cycles, Mr. Meisels was Vice President and
Director of Technical Research of Nesbitt Thomson (now BMO Nesbitt Burns) from
1982 to 1990 where he was ranked among the top three technical analysts by
Canadian Institutions for six consecutive years in the Brendan Wood Survey.
Mr. Meisels is a regular guest on BNN and is frequently quoted by The Globe
and Mail, The National Post, Bloomberg, Canadian Press and Reuters. He is also
the founder and first President of the CSTA (Canadian Society of Technical
Analysis) and the first Secretary of the International Federation of Technical
Analysts (IFTA).
About JovFunds Management Inc. (www.jovfunds.com)
JovFunds provides innovative investment solutions for Canadians through
the creation, distribution and management of high quality investment products.
JovFunds manages and distributes in excess of $2.2 billion in client assets
and is wholly owned by Jovian Capital Corporation. JovFunds also provides
exclusive distribution for the Horizons BetaPro ETFs.
About Jovian Capital Corporation (www.joviancapital.com)
Jovian acquires, creates and grows financial services companies
specializing in wealth and asset management. The Jovian group of companies
(MGI Securities Inc., MGI Securities (USA) Inc., Rice Financial Group Inc.,
BetaPro Management Inc., Horizons Funds Inc., JovFunds Management Inc.,
JovFunds Inc., JovInvestment Management Inc., Leon Frazer & Associates Inc.,
T.E. Wealth and Felcom Data Services Inc.) manages $14.0 billion of client
assets ($6.0 billion in assets under management and $8.0 billion in assets
under administration). Additional information is available at
www.joviancapital.com and www.sedar.com.
For further information: Steven Hawkins, Managing Partner, JovFunds
Management Inc., (416) 601-2442; Don Sangster, Investor Relations, Jovian
Capital Corporation, (416) 933-5744
Thursday 16 October 2008 The index for the Jov Talisman fund is the TSX 60 Index, representing the 60 largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and the new subadvisor will be Ron Meisels, president of Phases and Cycles, a Canadian equities research firm.
The Talisman fund has been subadvised by Strategic Analysis Corp., and its president, Ross Healy, who will be let go, if the move is approved by shareholders. google
10/14/2008 JovFunds Management Inc. Proposes to Convert the Jov Talisman Fund into an Actively Managed Exchange Traded Fund
Friday 12 September 2008 But this year, the election campaigns in Canada and particularly the United States could add a little spice to the mix, Ron Meisels at Phases & Cycles said.
"It is important to remember that the U. S. markets often perform well in the fall of an election year," Mr. Meisels said.
Friday 05 September 2008 Timminco Ltd. (TIM : TSX : $14.57)
Q-Cells debuts solar panel with TIM solar section
Paradigm Capital maintains a "buy", target of $45.00
Monday 08 September 2008 TORONTO HAS STARTED AN UPTREND.
GOLDS AND FERTILIZERS ARE BOTTOMING.
IS THIS THE END OF THE CORRECTION?
Sunday 03 August 2008 GIM MEISELS TOP 60 PORTFOLIO
Ron Meisels, Chief Analyst, has been active as an Analyst since 1971. He was Vice President and Director of Technical Research of Nesbitt Thomson (now BMO Nesbitt Burns) from 1982 to 1990. He was ranked among the top three technical ...
Sunday 27 July 2008 Technical analysts David Harder & Ron Meisels - “While market strategists reduce equity weightings and more and more investment experts turn negative on equities, a host of indicators suggest that conditions are ripe for a bottom to occur at any time.
Wednesday 16 July 2008 Ron Meisels and David Harder of Phases & Cycles Inc. may have just the ticket. They believe that the Toronto and New York stock markets could bottom any day ...
THE XAU INDEX IS ON THE VERGE OF A MULTI-YEAR BREAKOUT.
Tuesday 15 July 2008 INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT EQUITIES
Tuesday 08 July 2008 COULD BOTTOM ANY DAY NOW.
04 July NORTH AMERICAN MARKETS ARE BECOMING OVERSOLD.
LOOK FOR A BETTER BEHAVIOR AFTER MID-JULY.
Tuesday 24 June 2008
SPRING-CLEANING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO A HOT, BULLISH SUMMER.
Thu 19/06/2008
WHILE HIGH OIL PRICES ARE A SERIOUS THREAT TO EQUITIES,
MOST OTHER DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THIS IS MERELY A PERIOD OF CONSOLIDATION
BEFORE A VERY STRONG RISE.
Canadian banks have been hurt by writeoffs related to the credit crunch and the slumping U.S. housing market, but they have been well off the massive losses seen by institutions south of the border and around the world.
Ron Meisels, president, analyst at P&C Holdings, in Montreal, said that the combined punch of gains in the energy and banking groups will help pull the index higher.
“The two of them together are going to work in unison rather than against each other, which is what we've had recently with the oils going up and the banks down,” he said.
“If we have that, maybe with some utility stocks or some industrial stocks ... they could make it all work in unison for a while.”
Thursday 29 May 2008
A CONSOLIDATION PERIOD IS PROBABLE
(especially in Toronto),
BUT THIS BULL SHOULD RULE THROUGH THE SUMMER.
Friday 23 May 2008 Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO) Stock has not been able to go through the $7.40-$7.50 area. If you don't own it, wait for the breakout and then jump on it. 2008-04-08
Sunday 18 May 2008 0:57
Thare is also the opinion of Ron Meisels, president of Montreal-based research firm Phases & Cycles. The doubters and skeptics seem to be everywhere, either advocating staying away from the markets until the negative news peters out, or even more actively talking down the markets with projections of dramatic new lows to come, his advisory said in a note in early April.
all music to our bullish ears.
Meisels noted that markets have held above their January bottom despite a slurry of bad economic news. However, he expects a highly selective and tepid rally compared to 2002-07. He projects unimpressive, single-digit rallies for the S&P 500 and other U.S. indexes, but better results for the TSX, which he sees eventually hitting 16,000.
But Meisels is still cautious, saying the TSX “may have to do considerable work� to overcome overhead resistance. “The bullish picture remains intact provided the S&P/TSX Composite Index remains above its March lows.
16 Apr 2008 Minor consolidations may
occur between now and the
end of this month. This
should be followed by another
attempt to rise above the S&P
500 1390-1400 and the
S&P/TSX 13,900-14,000 areas.
PAC-08-59; MKT-185; David Harder, Ron Meisels
Thursday 10 April 2008 Despite analysts' spring fever, that's probably no bull out there
Ron Meisels believes that may be the case, because he says a new bull market has already begun. What's more, he's predicting the bull will carry the benchmark S&P/TSX composite index to 16,000 points in the next six months, the equivalent of a 31.8-per-cent gain from the Jan. 18 low of 12,132 points and 16.6-per-cent higher than where it's currently trading.
MKT 184; April 4, 2008 Against all expectations, but as we
suggested, a selective bull in North
American markets appears to be flexing
its muscles. The markets should rise
modestly for much of 2008 against a
classic “wall of worry.”
David Tippin, Ron Meisels
Wednesday 09 April 2008 Trend & Cycle: Copper: Is This A Floor Or A Ceiling?
“Market cycles are roofed with a dome of copper.” This old adage may be reminding us of something important, even if global supply/demand patterns are no longer what they once were. The chart below shows that Copper (in $US) has traced out a broad consolidation over the past 24 months, and now appears set to break out to the upside. The likelihood that this is a just a big “top” has diminished substantially over time, and a close above $4.00 by the nearby futures would likely signal a major upside breakout. The credit crunch is easing, and Fed stimulus will start kicking in soon. Global copper demand should stay strong no matter what happens to the US economy. US Dollar weakness. Speculative demand, especially by hedge funds, as a reflation play. An upside breakout in copper would be consistent with our longer-term “Muddle-Through” scenario for the broad market. In this scenario, markets will maintain some type of recovery pattern until early 2009, just after the US Presidential inauguration, at which time a new cyclical bear market window will open and carry into mid-2010. Accumulate copper-biased metal stocks in anticipation of a breakout in the copper price on near-term weakness. Add aggressively on a copper close above $4.00. Short-term support for copper on a pullback over the next few days is between 3.76 and the 50-day average currently at 3.69.
Saturday 29 March 2008 TSX to hit 16,000 in six months, Meisels predicts
In the financial sector, he said stocks such as Royal Bank of Canada (RY/TSX) and TDBank (TD/TSX) would have a better chance of rising than those that have been severely punished, such as Bank of Montreal. (BMO/TSX)
Wednesday 26 March 2008
We continue to favour a bullish resolution
to the current market uncertainty and its
oversold condition. The bull market in
specific sectors and individual stocks
should continue through much of 2008. David Tippin, Ron Meisels
Ron Meisels, www.na-marketletter.com
By Spelunca(Spelunca)
TOP PICK BARRICK GOLD CORP (NYSE:ABX TSE:ABX): Barrick done very well, been in major uptrend, trading range $47-53, it is probably minimum $60 stock. Been a laggard for such a long time so now it is finally moving. ...
Mining Gold Stocks - mining-gold-stocks
Friday 29 February 2008 WHAT THE CHARTS SAY
BY RON MEISELS AND MONICA RIZK
BULLISH ON NEWMONT
Newmont Mining Corp., (yesterday’s close $47.89 U.S.), had a sharp rise from $34.90 to $62.70 (A-B) and then settled into a large area of accumulation (dashed lines). It recently rallied to $56.35 to signal the breakout from the area (C), pulled back toward the original breakout level (D), and now appears ready to resume the uptrend toward higher targets.
Tuesday Feb 5, 2008
A propos this story, we would like to call your attention to Ron Meisels‘ prescient remark of almost a year ago (Feb 21 2007): “Since 1887, years ending in seven have always had a bad ending starting sometime in August and ending sometime in October, including 1907 - sometimes referred to as the Crash of 07 - and 1987?. Caveat fundamental-ists.
From Wed#1303 21 Feb 2007 - Ron M.:
Since 1887, years ending in seven have always had a bad ending starting sometime in August and ending sometime in October, including 1907 - sometimes referred to as the Crash of 07 - and 1987
And that was before anyone had heard of subprime or ABC .... NOT BAD!
Wednesday 30 January 2008
Ron Meisels and Monica Rizk, who write a technical analysis column in Saturday’s Report on Business, have tallied up their picks for the past year. Mr. Meisels is a contributor to the www.NA-marketletter.com website and Ms. Rizk is the senior technical analyst for Phases & Cycles Inc. Let’s see how they did
Of 49 picks by the two analysts last year, 36 of them advanced. The average gain of all the picks was 12.2 per cent. Twenty one of the 49 positions were sold on a stop (some at a gain others at a loss).
“Some of these stocks have moved up later, but the majority are now lower, which points out the importance of having disciplined stop-levels either in the form of a set percentage or at a predetermined price level,” the two analysts said. Of the 49 picks, 24 are still open: some of these had major gains (SNC-Lavalin up 47 per cent; Denbury Resources up 66 per cent), yet they still have significant upside potentials, they added.
“Although our research suggests that 2008 will be a positive year, it will probably be a year in which stock selection will be of utmost importance,” the two analysts said. “There could be very slim picking among bank stocks (except for a quick trade), but we expect to find great candidates among the energy and gold stocks.”
record "What the charts said" in 2007 - Published Jan. 30, 2008
Friday 14 December 2007 Ron Meisels, a technical analyst at Phases & Cycles, noted that investor sentiment at a stock market peak leans toward greed, enthusiasm and euphoria. On the other hand, sentiment swings to fear, disappointment and disbelief when it is at a trough -- meaning that today's setbacks in the market are signs that a new bull market is on the way.
"In October, 2002, it was the same thing. People were confused, nobody really believed we were in the beginning of a bull market, and so we had hectic days," Mr. Meisels said.
That marked the bottom of a lengthy bear market, after which stocks embarked upon a rebound that has seen the S&P/TSX composite index more than double. It is too much to expect a similar rally in the years ahead--but widespread investor pessimism is a good start.
Wednesday 17 October 2007 A bear turned bullish Mr. Majendie, chief investment strategist at Canaccord Capital Inc., listed a number of reasons for his view change. Key among them is the U.S. Federal Reserve Board's decision to lower its discount rate by half a percentage point once in mid-August and then again on Sept. 18, moves which have given Mr. Majendie greater confidence in the U.S. economy and the markets.
Mr. Majendie's bullish tone is in line with technical analyst Ron Meisels' read on the North American markets. Mr. Meisels, who is a contributor to NA-marketletter.com, feels there could be further weakness in the markets before the correction that began in July ends, but he believes that the bull market has further to go.
Mr. Meisels' work with 40-year market cycles suggests a bullish period in 2008 and at least the first half of 2009.
at Wed1331 Wednesday Sep 5 Ron Meisels called ABX a buy break out
Larry MacDonald submits: Stock market indexes have been below their 200-day moving averages for several days now, a bearish sign for many technical analysts. The S&P/TSX Composite index closed yesterday at 13,048.76, down 11% from the peak in mid-July and 3% below its 200-day moving average; the S&P 500 shows similar declines.
The indexes have been down to their 200-day moving averages several times during the current bull market, but each time managed to rally back strongly. So far, a rally is nowhere to be seen. But in their latest Phases & Cycle investment newsletter, Ron Meisels and David Tippins call for "a concerted rally attempt by the oversold S&P 500 … likely from a point somewhere in the low 1400s."
However, they add, "there is substantial overhead resistance in the high 1400s/low 1500s, and this will prove worrisome for the bulls." Their advice: don’t join any market rallies just yet. In fact, use them to move into cash.
But as of their last missive, they haven't given up on the bull market: "For the long-term it is far too early to declare this longstanding bull market 'dead, since [their italics] the long-term [200-day] moving averages for the major market indices still point upwards ... " Look for another upleg to begin "when the leaves fall," conclude Meisels and Tippins.
10:30 am Conferences, Monday, August 27, room A Market timing with cycles analysis Ron Meisels,
Phases & Cycles inc., Montreal, Quebec
One scenario is an escalation in long-term interest rates relative to the market earnings yield (inverse of price-earning ratio) to a point where the incentive for takeovers and buybacks is eliminated.
Maybe the end will come as soon as the second half of this year, as veteran technical analyst Ron Meisels suggests in his latest Phases and Cycles newsletter. His bullish market calls have been on the mark throughout this extended phase, but now he is saying: “…by the end of the second quarter the bull’s fuel tanks will likely run close to empty. Therefore, the second half of the year may … bring an end to the 2002-07 bull/bear cycle.”
Thursday 01 March 2007 OC No one will thank Ron Meisels for suggesting that Bay Street’s shakedown and the retreat of stock markets globally was not only overdue, but also very necessary for this most amazing of bull markets, now in its 52nd month, to stay alive.
Friday 09 February 2007 ts Ron Meisels: Bull Market Could End in 'Disorderly Bang' Without Correction Soon
Ron Meisels of North American Marketletter points out that while recent pullbacks have been treated as buying opportunities, there is now some technical weakness in what he considers an aging bull market.
6 Feb 2007Soon down if it dont go up? or Bull Market Could End in 'Disorderly Bang' Without Correction soon...
Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. had a major advance from 58 cents in November, 2000, to $6.25 in November of 2004 (A-B); corrected to $3.50 in September, 2005 (C), and then, after a brief period of base building, started a sharp rally (C-D) that reached a high of $9.35 in May, 2006 (D).
Since then, the stock had a normal pullback toward its rising 40-week moving average (E), produced a bullish "symmetrical triangle" formation (please see chart), and then started a new upleg.
Technical indicators confirm its bullish character: The 40-week moving average is trending higher, the volatility system indicator (VSI) shows positive momentum, and the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) is rising (see lower panel). Only a decline below $8 would reverse the positive status of this stock.
Point & Figure measurements provide a target of $12 (a 31-per-cent appreciation potential from current levels). Higher targets are also visible.
Ron Meisels In recognition of your devotion to the fundamental concept of Wednesday Night since the outset, despite your unwavering adherence to the tenets of Kondratieff; your valued contributions to the market knowledge of the assembled believers and non-believers; and your charting of the cyclical patterns of discourse | Photo RJG Slides | more Slides | albums Ron Meisels: Market Update and RM Techniques Primer. Ron is one
of the Founders of the CSTA, the first President and a Director.
Ron Meisels, president of P&C Holdings Ron Meisels is an industry veteran. A private investor since 1963 and a technical analyst since 1965, he is the president of P&C but more importantly personally he says is a contributor to www.n-amarketletter.com
“When I first received Diana’s e-mail, my reaction was Groucho Marx’s line ‘I wouldn’t be a member of a club that would have me as a member.’ It is a wonderful award and I have nothing to do but accept. It is unbelievable what the Nicholsons have done,” said Meisels, one of the original members.
“To have such a flow of ideas from one person to another in such a friendly surrounding, knowing you can talk confidentially among your peers is just wonderful.”
Ron Meisels is one of North America's most successful technical analysts with over 35 years of stock market experience. He specializes in the independent research of Canadian securities. He is listed in the Canadian Who's Who.
He has been a private investor since 1963, and has been publishing the technically oriented "Phases & Cycles" since 1970. He was Director and Vice President of the brokerage firm Goulding, Rose & Turner from 1976 to 1982, and Vice President and Manager of Technical Research at Nesbitt Thomson Inc. (now Nesbitt Burns) from 1982 to 1990. Canadian Institutions ranked him among the top three technical analysts for six consecutive years (Brendan Wood Survey).
He has a truly distinguished track record in anticipating stock market moves, as illustrated by his famous "10,000 in 2000" prediction, made in January 1995 when the DJIA was at 3850. Ron contributes a weekly column to the Globe and Mail ("Technically Speaking"), is often interviewed on television (ROBtv), and is frequently quoted in major financial media such as Bloomberg and Reuters.
April 22, 2006 Oil Prices, the Kondratiev Cycle and Peak Oil High oil prices are much on investor's minds today and a cycle-based examination of oil is well due. I discussed oil in my 2003 book Retiring Rich and presented an investment strategy for oil stocks that has since been not very useful. The strategy called for buying oil driller stocks or a suitable index when oil prices and rig counts reached certain (low) levels. Since late 2002 when I developed the strategy, prices and rig counts have remained well above these buy levels and the strategy has been irrelevant as a result.
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Bloomberg
Andy Nulman 
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Ron is pinned
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