16 Apr 2008 Minor consolidations may
occur between now and the
end of this month. This
should be followed by another
attempt to rise above the S&P
500 1390-1400 and the
S&P/TSX 13,900-14,000 areas.
PAC-08-59; MKT-185; David Harder, Ron Meisels
Thursday 10 April 2008 Despite analysts' spring fever, that's probably no bull out there
Ron Meisels believes that may be the case, because he says a new bull market has already begun. What's more, he's predicting the bull will carry the benchmark S&P/TSX composite index to 16,000 points in the next six months, the equivalent of a 31.8-per-cent gain from the Jan. 18 low of 12,132 points and 16.6-per-cent higher than where it's currently trading.
MKT 184; April 4, 2008 Against all expectations, but as we
suggested, a selective bull in North
American markets appears to be flexing
its muscles. The markets should rise
modestly for much of 2008 against a
classic “wall of worry.”
David Tippin, Ron Meisels
Wednesday 09 April 2008 Trend & Cycle: Copper: Is This A Floor Or A Ceiling?
“Market cycles are roofed with a dome of copper.” This old adage may be reminding us of something important, even if global supply/demand patterns are no longer what they once were. The chart below shows that Copper (in $US) has traced out a broad consolidation over the past 24 months, and now appears set to break out to the upside. The likelihood that this is a just a big “top” has diminished substantially over time, and a close above $4.00 by the nearby futures would likely signal a major upside breakout. The credit crunch is easing, and Fed stimulus will start kicking in soon. Global copper demand should stay strong no matter what happens to the US economy. US Dollar weakness. Speculative demand, especially by hedge funds, as a reflation play. An upside breakout in copper would be consistent with our longer-term “Muddle-Through” scenario for the broad market. In this scenario, markets will maintain some type of recovery pattern until early 2009, just after the US Presidential inauguration, at which time a new cyclical bear market window will open and carry into mid-2010. Accumulate copper-biased metal stocks in anticipation of a breakout in the copper price on near-term weakness. Add aggressively on a copper close above $4.00. Short-term support for copper on a pullback over the next few days is between 3.76 and the 50-day average currently at 3.69.
Saturday 29 March 2008 TSX to hit 16,000 in six months, Meisels predicts 'A New Bull Market'
In the financial sector, he said stocks such as Royal Bank of Canada (RY/TSX) and TDBank (TD/TSX) would have a better chance of rising than those that have been severely punished, such as Bank of Montreal. (BMO/TSX)
Wednesday 26 March 2008
We continue to favour a bullish resolution
to the current market uncertainty and its
oversold condition. The bull market in
specific sectors and individual stocks
should continue through much of 2008. David Tippin, Ron Meisels
Ron Meisels, www.na-marketletter.com
By Spelunca(Spelunca)
TOP PICK BARRICK GOLD CORP (NYSE:ABX TSE:ABX): Barrick done very well, been in major uptrend, trading range $47-53, it is probably minimum $60 stock. Been a laggard for such a long time so now it is finally moving. ...
Mining Gold Stocks - http://www.mining-gold-stocks.com/
Friday 29 February 2008 WHAT THE CHARTS SAY
BY RON MEISELS AND MONICA RIZK
BULLISH ON NEWMONT
Newmont Mining Corp., (yesterday’s close $47.89 U.S.), had a sharp rise from $34.90 to $62.70 (A-B) and then settled into a large area of accumulation (dashed lines). It recently rallied to $56.35 to signal the breakout from the area (C), pulled back toward the original breakout level (D), and now appears ready to resume the uptrend toward higher targets.
Tuesday Feb 5, 2008
A propos this story, we would like to call your attention to Ron Meisels‘ prescient remark of almost a year ago (Feb 21 2007): “Since 1887, years ending in seven have always had a bad ending starting sometime in August and ending sometime in October, including 1907 - sometimes referred to as the Crash of 07 - and 1987?. Caveat fundamental-ists.
From Wed#1303 21 Feb 2007 - Ron M.:
Since 1887, years ending in seven have always had a bad ending starting sometime in August and ending sometime in October, including 1907 - sometimes referred to as the Crash of 07 - and 1987
And that was before anyone had heard of subprime or ABC .... NOT BAD!
Wednesday 30 January 2008
Ron Meisels and Monica Rizk, who write a technical analysis column in Saturday’s Report on Business, have tallied up their picks for the past year. Mr. Meisels is a contributor to the www.NA-marketletter.com website and Ms. Rizk is the senior technical analyst for Phases & Cycles Inc. Let’s see how they did
Of 49 picks by the two analysts last year, 36 of them advanced. The average gain of all the picks was 12.2 per cent. Twenty one of the 49 positions were sold on a stop (some at a gain others at a loss).
“Some of these stocks have moved up later, but the majority are now lower, which points out the importance of having disciplined stop-levels either in the form of a set percentage or at a predetermined price level,” the two analysts said. Of the 49 picks, 24 are still open: some of these had major gains (SNC-Lavalin up 47 per cent; Denbury Resources up 66 per cent), yet they still have significant upside potentials, they added.
“Although our research suggests that 2008 will be a positive year, it will probably be a year in which stock selection will be of utmost importance,” the two analysts said. “There could be very slim picking among bank stocks (except for a quick trade), but we expect to find great candidates among the energy and gold stocks.”
Friday 14 December 2007 Ron Meisels, a technical analyst at Phases & Cycles, noted that investor sentiment at a stock market peak leans toward greed, enthusiasm and euphoria. On the other hand, sentiment swings to fear, disappointment and disbelief when it is at a trough -- meaning that today's setbacks in the market are signs that a new bull market is on the way.
"In October, 2002, it was the same thing. People were confused, nobody really believed we were in the beginning of a bull market, and so we had hectic days," Mr. Meisels said.
That marked the bottom of a lengthy bear market, after which stocks embarked upon a rebound that has seen the S&P/TSX composite index more than double. It is too much to expect a similar rally in the years ahead--but widespread investor pessimism is a good start.
Wednesday 17 October 2007 A bear turned bullish Mr. Majendie, chief investment strategist at Canaccord Capital Inc., listed a number of reasons for his view change. Key among them is the U.S. Federal Reserve Board's decision to lower its discount rate by half a percentage point once in mid-August and then again on Sept. 18, moves which have given Mr. Majendie greater confidence in the U.S. economy and the markets.
Mr. Majendie's bullish tone is in line with technical analyst Ron Meisels' read on the North American markets. Mr. Meisels, who is a contributor to NA-marketletter.com, feels there could be further weakness in the markets before the correction that began in July ends, but he believes that the bull market has further to go.
Mr. Meisels' work with 40-year market cycles suggests a bullish period in 2008 and at least the first half of 2009.
at Wed1331 Wednesday Sep 5 Ron Meisels called ABX a buy break out
Larry MacDonald submits: Stock market indexes have been below their 200-day moving averages for several days now, a bearish sign for many technical analysts. The S&P/TSX Composite index closed yesterday at 13,048.76, down 11% from the peak in mid-July and 3% below its 200-day moving average; the S&P 500 shows similar declines.
The indexes have been down to their 200-day moving averages several times during the current bull market, but each time managed to rally back strongly. So far, a rally is nowhere to be seen. But in their latest Phases & Cycle investment newsletter, Ron Meisels and David Tippins call for "a concerted rally attempt by the oversold S&P 500 … likely from a point somewhere in the low 1400s."
However, they add, "there is substantial overhead resistance in the high 1400s/low 1500s, and this will prove worrisome for the bulls." Their advice: don’t join any market rallies just yet. In fact, use them to move into cash.
But as of their last missive, they haven't given up on the bull market: "For the long-term it is far too early to declare this longstanding bull market 'dead, since [their italics] the long-term [200-day] moving averages for the major market indices still point upwards ... " Look for another upleg to begin "when the leaves fall," conclude Meisels and Tippins.
10:30 am Conferences, Monday, August 27, room A Market timing with cycles analysis Ron Meisels,
Phases & Cycles inc., Montreal, Quebec
One scenario is an escalation in long-term interest rates relative to the market earnings yield (inverse of price-earning ratio) to a point where the incentive for takeovers and buybacks is eliminated.
Maybe the end will come as soon as the second half of this year, as veteran technical analyst Ron Meisels suggests in his latest Phases and Cycles newsletter. His bullish market calls have been on the mark throughout this extended phase, but now he is saying: “…by the end of the second quarter the bull’s fuel tanks will likely run close to empty. Therefore, the second half of the year may … bring an end to the 2002-07 bull/bear cycle.”
Thursday 01 March 2007 OC No one will thank Ron Meisels for suggesting that Bay Street’s shakedown and the retreat of stock markets globally was not only overdue, but also very necessary for this most amazing of bull markets, now in its 52nd month, to stay alive.
Friday 09 February 2007 ts Ron Meisels: Bull Market Could End in 'Disorderly Bang' Without Correction Soon
Ron Meisels of North American Marketletter points out that while recent pullbacks have been treated as buying opportunities, there is now some technical weakness in what he considers an aging bull market.
6 Feb 2007Soon down if it dont go up? or Bull Market Could End in 'Disorderly Bang' Without Correction soon...
Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. had a major advance from 58 cents in November, 2000, to $6.25 in November of 2004 (A-B); corrected to $3.50 in September, 2005 (C), and then, after a brief period of base building, started a sharp rally (C-D) that reached a high of $9.35 in May, 2006 (D).
Since then, the stock had a normal pullback toward its rising 40-week moving average (E), produced a bullish "symmetrical triangle" formation (please see chart), and then started a new upleg.
Technical indicators confirm its bullish character: The 40-week moving average is trending higher, the volatility system indicator (VSI) shows positive momentum, and the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) is rising (see lower panel). Only a decline below $8 would reverse the positive status of this stock.
Point & Figure measurements provide a target of $12 (a 31-per-cent appreciation potential from current levels). Higher targets are also visible.
Ron Meisels In recognition of your devotion to the fundamental concept of Wednesday Night since the outset, despite your unwavering adherence to the tenets of Kondratieff; your valued contributions to the market knowledge of the assembled believers and non-believers; and your charting of the cyclical patterns of discourse | Photo RJG Slides | more Slides | albums Ron Meisels: Market Update and RM Techniques Primer. Ron is one
of the Founders of the CSTA, the first President and a Director.
Ron Meisels, president of P&C Holdings Ron Meisels is an industry veteran. A private investor since 1963 and a technical analyst since 1965, he is the president of P&C but more importantly personally he says is a contributor to www.n-amarketletter.com
“When I first received Diana’s e-mail, my reaction was Groucho Marx’s line ‘I wouldn’t be a member of a club that would have me as a member.’ It is a wonderful award and I have nothing to do but accept. It is unbelievable what the Nicholsons have done,” said Meisels, one of the original members.
“To have such a flow of ideas from one person to another in such a friendly surrounding, knowing you can talk confidentially among your peers is just wonderful.”
Ron Meisels is one of North America's most successful technical analysts with over 35 years of stock market experience. He specializes in the independent research of Canadian securities. He is listed in the Canadian Who's Who.
He has been a private investor since 1963, and has been publishing the technically oriented "Phases & Cycles" since 1970. He was Director and Vice President of the brokerage firm Goulding, Rose & Turner from 1976 to 1982, and Vice President and Manager of Technical Research at Nesbitt Thomson Inc. (now Nesbitt Burns) from 1982 to 1990. Canadian Institutions ranked him among the top three technical analysts for six consecutive years (Brendan Wood Survey).
He has a truly distinguished track record in anticipating stock market moves, as illustrated by his famous "10,000 in 2000" prediction, made in January 1995 when the DJIA was at 3850. Ron contributes a weekly column to the Globe and Mail ("Technically Speaking"), is often interviewed on television (ROBtv), and is frequently quoted in major financial media such as Bloomberg and Reuters.
April 22, 2006 Oil Prices, the Kondratiev Cycle and Peak Oil High oil prices are much on investor's minds today and a cycle-based examination of oil is well due. I discussed oil in my 2003 book Retiring Rich and presented an investment strategy for oil stocks that has since been not very useful. The strategy called for buying oil driller stocks or a suitable index when oil prices and rig counts reached certain (low) levels. Since late 2002 when I developed the strategy, prices and rig counts have remained well above these buy levels and the strategy has been irrelevant as a result.
CyberTrading University Attend a FREE Direct Access Trading Seminar! This event is broadcasted Live every week over the internet. Participants will learn all the techniques and strategies that professionals use on Wall Street. Register online and enjoy the presentation from the comfort of your personal computer. This presentation is suitable for beginners, intermediate and advanced traders.
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