Ron Meisels, who correctly forecast in January, 1995, that the Dow Jones industrial average would soar to 10,000 in 2000, now offers a less upbeat view of the market.
The Dow, a closely watched indicator of Wall Street's health, at the time stood at around 3,800. As it turned out, Mr. Meisels underestimated the speed with which the Dow would climb to 10,000. It achieved that level in March, 1999. He also made the same prediction at the time for the Toronto Stock Exchange 300 composite index, which crossed the 10,000 mark in March of this year.
Mr. Meisels, president of P&C Holdings in Montreal, is normally reluctant to forecast both targets and the time periods in which they are likely to occur. He studies market cycles, particularly four-year and 40-year ones, and bases his predictions on those clearly established market cycles and other technical indicators.
Looking at the 40-year cycle, "it seems that there is a good chance that what comes after 10,000 in 2000 is a period of time during which the [New York] market isn't going to 15,000, 20,000, 30,000 or any of those numbers that are currently touted," he told the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, the same group to which he made the original fearless forecast.
What he now expects is that the market won't make a lot of headway but will go through a period of churning, as it did in the sixties. He feels the Dow could well make a top in the first or second quarter of 2001 at 12,500 to 13,000 and not possibly make another high in the following few years.
The Dow closed yesterday at 11,087.47.
"Some of the stocks in the Dow are already making top formations," he noted.
Also, the advance/decline line, which Mr. Meisels believes is a leading indicator of both short-term and long-term performance, "recently has been acting rather poorly [and that] may very well be the first indication that . . . we are now getting into the period in the 40-year cycle that is the beginning of the topping period," he said.
He sees the TSE 300, which ended yesterday's session at 11,078, tracing roughly the same pattern, since "Toronto and New York move very much together."
But Mr. Meisels did say that Bay Street's leading indicator could go beyond 12,500 to 13,000.
Taking a very near-term view, Mr. Meisels suggested that the TSE 300 will dip back to around 9,900 to 10,000 by mid-October and then rally into the first quarter of next year and possibly into the second.
The near-term forecast stems from several factors, not the least of which is that Nortel Networks Corp., [T-NT] which accounts for about 33 per cent of the TSE 300's weighting, has given an intermediate negative signal. [at $70us soon after W-N called NT a SELL] Also, he noted "we are entering a seasonally weak period."
October can be a difficult month for the markets.
He also said that he expects the New York market won't fall as much as the Toronto market in October since this is a U.S. presidential election year.
Among the various TSE groups, Mr. Meisels particularly likes the oils. "I still think the oils are doing very well in Toronto."
Predictions for 2000 and Beyond:
From PHASES CYCLES
March 24, 2000
Here are the latest observations:
1. Our Point & Figure charts indicate a target of 11,525 for the TSE 300 Index. This target is confirmed by two separate measurements. It appears on both the shorter-term (25 units) and the longer-term (100 units) charts.
2. Our 40-year cycle work shows that the current cycle should be as right-translated as the two most recent ones (1990-94; 1994-1998). Therefore, the current bull market should continue well past the half-way point, and should continue for at least the next fifteen months. Then, after an important low in 2002 (four years after the previous "important low" in October 1998), a new cycle should start and bull market conditions should exist till about 2004-05.
3. Our work on the 40-year cycle also indicates that this current cycle will be the last one that is right-translated. The work shows that both markets should enter a period where further advances (higher levels) could be limited, just as it was during 1962-1968 when the DJI failed to make any major progress above 1,000 for over six years. Since the 11,525 target indicated by the Point & Figure charts could be reached as early as 2001, it may not be exceeded for quite some time. In other words, the highs of 2004-05 may not be significantly higher than the highs of 2001.
"What comes after "10,000 in 2000"?
A target of at least 11,525 for the TSE 300 Index, a continued healthy bull market for most of 2000 and 2001 (minor corrections notwithstanding), a small bear market during 2002 and another bullish (although not as extended) period till 2004-05.
1st March 2000 Tips from Wed 939
In a change of topic, Ron Meisels gave some of his recommendations on stock buying. He has issued a buy recommendation on (CAE bot at $13). They have a new President, and are concentrating on their core strengths. There is and will be a great shortage of pilots, and CAE is a leader in the production of flight simulators. Their longterm outlook is good. Another recommendation was Systems in Excellence - (SXC bot at $3.55) on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
“Merry Millennium”
Wednesday Night #931 January 5, 2000. We past Y2K ... Martin Barnes, Tony Deutsch, Jacques Clément, resistance Cdn$ 75 cents... US unemploy at 4.1% - a 30 year low. GDP 3.5% to 4%.. Quebec GDP 3.6%, unemployment 8.4% Ron Meisels online trading Peter Ferst, Day traders are not gamblers [DTN] see the Day Trader
From Wed 930 year end 1999
At his request, Diana Nicholson read into the Record Ron Meisel's predictions dated November 12 1993 wherein he "declared that the Dow Industrials will touch 7000 on January 14, 1996 at 11:31 a.m.". On the date of the prediction, the close was 3684.51.
Appended to that bold prediction was a list of others that had materialized or were yet to come:
- Mr. Mulroney's resignation
- Mr. Chrétien will form a majority government
- Meech Lake will fail
- Free Trade will pass
- NAFTA will pass
- The worst of the recession is yet to come
- Québec will not separate.
- The sun will rise again ... somewhere
He did not mention the depression that he called for
The Toronto Stock Exchange
On January 1, 1995, Market Maven Ron Meisels coined the phrase "10,000 in 2000". When asked at that time, whether his prediction held true for the TSE as well as for the Dow, Ron replied in the affirmative. It is obvious that the Dow has attained and exceeded the 10,000 level ahead of schedule, but what of the TSE? Ron sticks by his original prediction, 10,000 in 2000 for the TSE.
Ron Meisels states [Wednesday May 5th 1999] that at this point the Canadian market is the best buy because it is cheap in relation to what other markets have done. Our resource sector is undervalued;
at $47cdn, ..
T-CP $37,
are among Ron's current recommendations. Please click for our charts and DTN's [short term] contrary conjecture as seen in the arrows.
We should see a positive period between now and May. We may see a correction in mid-May and early June and then another leg up until August, at which time it may be a good idea to become a little defensive.
Another good Meisels call
COGNOS INC.[T-CSN bot at $50.35 for $65] got to $105+
Saturday, August 15, 1998
Number crunching: Technical analysis of the markets -- crunching numbers, drawing up charts, identifying trends -- has its fans and foes, but one thing is indisputable. It is gaining popularity among industry people and private investors alike.
AC Air Canaada
Ron Meisels, president of P&C Holdings in Montreal
Ron Meisels And KONDRATIEFF
This Week in Business April 9,1988
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On 8/4/98 he said to this site that "Air Canada was a great short at $12.25, target $8-9. Nothing wrong with the Co., just an abundance of sellers of the stock."
Do see our chart on AC in Toronto
Ron Meisels a founder of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts 24 years ago, says "fundamental analysis tells us how rational investors should behave, while technical analysis tells us how actual investors do behave." and...(says) the development of the discipline of technical analysis predated fundamental analysis... noting that the Chinese are thought to have pioneered it in the 15th or 16th century to trade rice futures. In the meantime, "long live 10,000 in 2000. Still to come !!"
Raoul Wallenburg
22/Jan/2001 Wallenberg mystery lives
By:NICOLAS VAN PRAET The Gazette
One week from today, Montreal Liberal MP Irwin Cotler will ask Swedish Prime Minister Goeran Persson to re-constitute an international commission to solve one of the 20th century's lasting mysteries - what happened to Swedish diplomat Raoul Wallenberg?
After a 10-year effort by a joint Russian-Swedish team failed to arrive at a conclusion about the fate of the mythical World War II figure who saved thousands of Jews from Nazi death camps, Cotler says the need to know for sure what happened to the lost hero of the Holocaust is stronger than ever.
17/Jan/2001 RUSSIANS SAY WALLENBERG DIED IN PRISON
There's a little more information available on the fate of Raoul
Wallenberg, the Swedish diplomat credited with saving tens of thousands
of Jews in Hungary towards the end of the Second World War.
March 1998
Ron Meisels called our attention to the
unveiling in March of '98 of the bust of Raoul Wallenburg. It is located in
the little park just north of the Anglican Cathedral, between University
and Union. It was Bishop Andrew Hutchinson who made this happen, as
there is a law in the City of Montreal that no statue can be raised on public property to anyone who is not dead. Russia has never confirmed Wallenburg's death,
so Montreal would not allow the bust on public property. This triumph of
bureaucracy was short-lived, thanks to Bishop Hutchinson.
Monday 17 January 2000
Square to be named for Wallenberg
With picture of Wallenberg beside him, Bishop Andrew Hutchison speaks at Christ Church Cathedral.
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The courtyard behind Christ Church Cathedral is to named in honour of Swedish diplomat Raoul Wallenberg, credited with saving about 97,000 Jews in the dying days of Word War II.
Survivors, diplomats, Montreal Mayor Pierre Bourque and other politicians gathered at the cathedral yesterday to salute Wallenberg's legacy in handing out temporary Swedish passports in 1944 and 1945 to Jews as German officials were organizing their transfer to death camps in Poland.
More than 150 people listened to diplomats from Sweden and Hungary, the U.S., Israel, Germany and Switzerland praise Wallenberg's selfless courage, but the story of how one man can make a difference came alive when Vicky Prinz, the daughter of a Hungarian survivor, told her mother's story.
"My mother was a 9-year-old living in Budapest in 1944," Prinz said. "She was given a special pass, shelter and a safe house by Raoul Wallenberg and because of this I could grow up and hope to have a family of my own."
Prinz and family members lay a bouquet of flowers in front of Wallenberg's statue in the cathedral courtyard several times a year, a reminder that "without the acts of one man we would have no birthdays to celebrate."
Anglican Bishop Andrew Hutchison recalled that when Wallenberg arrived in Budapest, more than 400,000 Jews had already been deported by Adolf Eichmann.
"He established a network of safe houses, he designed the famous Wallenberg pass, he personally boarded the box cars to distribute the passes and remove deportees from the trains.
"He sheltered more than 700 in the Swedish legation and his forceful and direct confrontation with a German general in January 1945 probably saved the remaining 97,000 Jews in the two remaining ghettos in Pest from annihilation, just two days before the Russians arrived."
Mount Royal Liberal MP Irwin Cotler said the onus is on Russian authorities to produce a death certificate or human remains to demonstrate that Wallenberg died in prison as they insist.
The chairman of an international inquiry into Wallenberg's fate, Cotler said there is "incontrovertible evidence" that Wallenberg did not die in 1947 as the Soviets have always claimed, and that he was still alive in the 1950s and 1960s and possibly later.
"The burden of proof remains on Russia to make full disclosure of the true fate of Raoul Wallenberg."
Cotler was broadly applauded when he called on the Canadian government to follow the U.S. example and proclaim a Raoul Wallenberg Day "as a day of witness, learning and inspiration for all Canadians."
Dorothy Zalcman-Howard, Quebec region president of the Canadian Jewish Congress, said MP Clifford Lincoln plans a private member's bill this winter proposing a Raoul Wallenberg day.
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