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Weekly Commentary
EDC's Chief Economist Stephen S. Poloz comments on world economic trends. Ranked by Dates
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
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2007
 Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Exports More Diversified in 2006 - March 7, 2007
The final numbers are now in for Canada?s trade in 2006. Many exporters will remember 2006 as a tough year, but there are some rays of sunshine between those clouds.
Canada?s total exports of goods and services were worth $524 billion in 2006, of which $459 billion were goods and $65 billion in services. This was an increase of only 1% over 2005, after growth of 5.1% in 2005 and 7.1% in the boom year, 2004. 2006 was slow, it is true, but it is worth recalling that Canada?s exports saw an extended period of decline just a few years ago: during 2001-2003, Canada?s exports fell outright three years in a row, cumulatively by about 6%. Past issues | his WN page
Commentary podcast. 
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
How are America?s consumers holding up? - February 28, 2007
America?s consumers have been carrying the global economy on their shoulders for so long now that we have come to take them for granted. But the ground has shifted beneath their feet in the last few months, so it is worth keeping track of how they are holding up. Past issues | his WN page
Commentary podcast.
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Just another flash in Japan? - February 21, 2007
Recent economic news from Japan has been good, so much so that it has people talking about a renaissance and a return to strong growth. The Bank of Japan is even raising interest rates.
Japan?s GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2006 came in at a startling 4.8%. Investment and exports were very strong. Even more surprising was that real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending, was up by more than 4% at an annualized rate, and some are pointing to this as early evidence of a consumer renaissance. Unfortunately, it came on the heels of a big drop in consumer spending in the third quarter. For the entire year, real consumption spending rose by only 0.7%, a big deceleration from 2.7% in 2005. Retail sales are essentially flat in the past year, and the Bank of Japan is only cautiously optimistic about the consumer outlook. Past issues | his WN page
Commentary podcast.
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
City Economics - February 14, 2007
Have you ever looked at one of those satellite photos of the earth, taken during night-time? It is truly a remarkable sight, and full of economic meaning, besides. Past issues | his WN page
Commentary podcast.
India: Integrative Trader - February 7, 2007
Everyone agrees that India has great potential, and other countries all want a piece of the action. Understanding how India will bring about its growth miracle is essential to participating in it. Past issues | his WN page
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
China?s Economy Moderating? Maybe - January 31, 2007
No forecast of the world economy is complete without an analysis of China. Many would say that, where China goes, so goes the world ? a description once reserved for the U.S. economy alone. Past issues | his WN page
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Oil Relief Still Leaves Policy Quandary - January 24, 2007
Consumers and companies alike are breathing a sigh of relief at lower oil prices – except those in the oil patch, of course. The question is, how will this relief affect the economic outlook? Past issues | his WN page
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Exporter Confidence Still Soft - January 17, 2007
EDC has just completed its twice-annual survey of attitudes of Canadian exporting companies. The Trade Confidence Index, or TCI, has edged up, but remains at a low level. Past issues | his WN page
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Slowdown Signals Solidifying - January 10, 2007
The world economy can blow hot and cold, just like the weather. Markets like it best when things are not too hot, and not too cold – but it looks like the temperature is starting to drop decisively. Past issues | his WN page
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
A New Chapter Begins in Brazil - January 3, 2007
As Luiz Inacio (Lula) da Silva is sworn in for a second four-year term as President of Brazil, it is worth a glance at the country’s economic prospects. The risk is that after steadily revising their growth aspirations downwards in the past four years, Brazilians may be in for more of the same. Past issues | his WN page
2006
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
International Borrowing Boosting Resiliency - December 13, 2006
It goes without saying that anybody that is carrying debt is more vulnerable to an economic downturn than someone debt-free. That applies equally to individuals, companies or countries. Past issues | his WN page
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Two Sides to the Trade Success Story - December 6, 2006
Everybody knows that emerging economies grow faster than major economies. That’s why success at exporting is often measured by success at penetrating emerging markets. And on this front, Canada is seen by some commentators as falling behind other major economies. Past issues | his WN page
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Global Synchronization and the U.S. Dollar - November 29, 2006
The U.S. dollar has weakened against the major currencies in recent weeks, and many analysts are extrapolating a significant decline in the greenback. Chances are, though, the weakness will prove temporary, once again. Past issues | his WN page
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
New Realities for Investing Abroad - November 22, 2006
Foreign investment has become a key growth strategy for North American firms, particularly investment in emerging markets. But a new investment reality has begun to emerge that is causing companies to recalibrate the risks they face in expanding globally. Past issues | his WN page
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Nigeria: Reform Progress Encouraging - November 15, 2006
Nigeria is one of those lesser-understood places on which oil has conferred extra importance of late. Many still harbour a negative impression of Nigeria, but things are starting to look up. Past issues | his WN page
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Bubbles…and Beyond - November 8, 2006
For several years the U.S. housing sector has been a source of economic strength, creating construction jobs and consumer wealth, thereby boosting consumer spending. But too much of a good thing led to rampant speculation and a real estate bubble, and now that bubble has burst. Past issues | his WN page
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Copper and Chile, for Better or for Worse - November 1, 2006
Copper and Chile go together like Jack and Jill. They both have gone up the hill together, but it is legitimate to ask how things will turn out for Jill when Jack tumbles down the hill. Past issues | his WN page
Past issues
EDC economist warns a correction is due
Friday, May 19, 2006 The world economy has been growing too rapidly and is due for a correction, which will put downward pressure on the price of oil and metals as well as the Canadian dollar, the chief economist at Export Development Canada warns. see wn on Stephen S. Poloz
List of comments on world economic trends.
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Exchange Rates in Harmony - May 25, 2005
The foreign exchange market is a very busy place. Every day, trillions of dollars, euros, yen and a multitude of other currencies change hands. As such, exchange rates reflect the decisions of millions of diverse participants, and are a treasure trove of information.
Past issues
Wed May 12,
Conference luncheon
Let's Talk Exports
With M. Stephen Poloz
Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist
Export Development Canada
| | Speaker:
Mr. Stephen Poloz
Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist
Export Development Canada |
Mr. Poloz joined Export Development Canada (EDC) in September 1999. As Chief Economist, he heads several departments: Market and Economic Analysis, Country Risk Assessment, Political Risk Assessment, Technical Advisory Services, Environmental Advisory Services, and the Corporation's Information Centre. Prior to joining EDC, Mr. Poloz was managing editor of The International Bank Credit Analyst, a monthly publication based in Montreal. He also spent fourteen years with the Bank of Canada, where he held a number of senior positions, including chief of the Research Department. During his tenure with the Bank of Canada, he was a visiting scholar at the Economic Planning Agency in Tokyo as well as at the International Monetary Fund in Washington. Mr. Poloz earned a Ph.D. and an M.A. in Economics from the University of Western Ontario and a B.A. in Economics from Queen's University. The author of numerous articles on a wide range of economic issues, he has also served on the editorial board of the Canadian Journal of Economics and on the executive council of the Canadian Economics Association. He is currently president of the 250-member Ottawa Economics Association. EDC provides trade finance and risk management services to Canadian exporters and investors in up to 200 markets. Founded in 1944, EDC is a Crown corporation that operates as a commercial financial institution.
Organized by Export Development Canada (EDC) in partnership with the World Trade Centre Montréal , a service branch of the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal, this talk will focus on the latest global economic conditions.
Find Wednesday-Night hits on Stephen Poloz | economy | [3] CP | WN Canada Facts | WN Interest% | clusty | Stephen+Poloz | Photo Slides
2006
Saturday May 20, 2006 EDC economist warns a correction is due
The world economy has been growing too rapidly and is due for a correction, which will put downward pressure on the price of oil and metals as well as the Canadian dollar, the chief economist at Export Development Canada warns.
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Exporter Confidence on the Rebound - July 6, 2005
Canada’s exporters are more confident about the future, according to EDC’s latest survey of 1,000 companies. The Trade Confidence Index (TCI) is up by three percentage points from six months ago, from 70.6 to 73.6. Virtually all sectors and provinces are participating in the upturn. Past issues | his WN page
Thursday, July 07, 2005 Watch volume, not value
JAY BRYAN
Oil and gas prices have shot even higher this year, boosting the cost of derivatives like chemicals and plastics as well. At the same time, rapid industrialization in China and other emerging Asian economies is supporting high prices for metals like copper.
Canada sells lots of such resource products, and the value of these exports is expected to be up by as much as 12 per cent this year. That leads Poloz to forecast a four-per-cent rise in total export value, even as some industries, notably autos and aircraft, suffer serious slumps.
Next year, however, Poloz expects resource prices to come back to Earth with a thump, slashing total export growth to zero.
It all sounds as if the future is rather grim. But Poloz believes the reality is more encouraging.
Financial Instability Now Part of the System - June 29, 2005
Financial instability – inexplicable volatility in stock prices, bond prices, house prices and exchange rates – is very much in the news these days. It is legitimate to ask whether central banks should be preoccupied with such things, and attempt to smooth these fluctuations. his WN page
Wednesday, April 21, 2004
Global export forecast: In high tide, watch out for the rocks
Mr. Poloz joined Export Development Canada (EDC) in September 1999.
As EDC's Chief Economist, Mr. Poloz leads a diverse risk assessment groupcomprising six departments: Market and Economic Analysis, Country Risk Assessment, Political Risk Assessment, Technical Advisory Services, EnvironmentalAdvisory Services and the Corporation's Information Centre.
Prior to joining EDC, Mr. Poloz was managing editor of The International BankCredit Analyst, a monthly global investment research publication that is read inmore than 80 countries. Before that, Mr. Poloz spent 14 years with the Bank of Canada, occupying a number of senior positions including chief of the Research Department. During his tenure with the Bank, he was a visiting scholar at the Economic Planning Agency in Tokyo, as well as at the International Monetary Fundin Washington.
Mr. Poloz earned a PhD and an MA in economics from the University of Western Ontario, and a BA in economics from Queen's University. He has published extensively on a wide range of economic issues, and has served on the editorialboard of the Canadian Journal of Economics and on the executive council of theCanadian Economics Association.
EDC provides trade finance and risk management services to Canadian exportersand investors in up to 200 markets. Founded in 1944, EDC is a Crown Corporation that operates as a commercial financial institution
![[Version en français]](images/fr.gif) Les récents signaux économiques en provenance des États-Unis
search EDC for more Stephen S. Poloz
Monday, April 22, 2002. Global economy is airborne again but a bumpy ride foreseen into 2003, says EDC
September 17, 2001 How can we know what's next? by Kathryn Leger
Financial Post The biggest risk in the wake of the terrorist attack is that countries turn inward or close down, says Stephen Poloz, chief executive of the Export Development Corp, and a Wednesday-nighter. "Economic activity will eventually recover," Mr. Poloz wrote in a commentary this week. "But the implications of this event [on Sept. 11] for economic openness and international trade could take much longer to resolve....Aversion to risk is high and will will remain so for an undefined period of time as many businesses either cancel or defer development plans.
# 909 India Augest 4, 1999 SIMON POTTER, Robin Wohnsigl VP AC, Steve Poloz & Tulsi Nowlakha Mirchandaney Sr.vp Blue Dart Express, Dr. Mihailo Crnobrnja, Warren Allmand, Ashok Chandwani & George Cavadias, Fr. David Oliver, Une ile Une Ville? Quote: "I will not come here again until David has been to India!" ...Nimi Potter pan 909
Wed884 Dr.Marc Roper 1)Couch report 2)Crisis in Healthcare ERs full Me J.Grey
John Ciaccia 3) Medicare .. nurses, Dr André Pasternac 4)Budget Stephen Poloz 5)Bill C-55
23 Nov 1999Exporting to Mexico PPT Panel
June 16, 1999 Wed902 Gold
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