Thursday 17 January 2008 Petro-Canada (PCA : TSX : $51.10)
Fourth-quarter results expected January 31
Credit Suisse downgrades to "neutral", target price cut to $30.00

2007

Monday 17 December 2007 (PCA : TSX : $51.46 | PCZ : NYSE : US$50.66)
Releases 2008 capital budget and production guidance
Credit Suisse rates a "outperform", target price is $65.00
Desjardins Securities reiterates "hold", target price is $54.00
Raymond James maintains a "outperform", 6-12 month target price is $66.00
RBC Capital Markets maintains a "outperform", target price is $64.00
Scotia Capital Markets rates a "sector outperform", 1-year target price is $67.00

2007

Friday 14 December 2007 (PCA): $51.90 – 2008 CAPEX Budget and Production Outlook
Outperform, Average Risk, Price Target: $64.00
Petro-Canada released its 2008 Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) details and production guidance. Total CAPEX budget in 2008 is forecasted at $5.3 billion, a 28% increase over estimated 2007 spending. Nearly $1.2 billion will be spent advancing the front end engineering and ordering long lead equipment for Phase 1 of Fort Hills. 2008 Production guided to ~400 mboe/d, a 2% decline from midpoint of 2007 company forecast and slightly below RBC CM’s estimate mainly due to lower production in the North Sea and offshore East Coast Canada. Lower capital spending on North American natural gas (NANG) is expected to result in 2008 declines in Western Canada production of ~9%. East Coast production is expected to be down ~11% in 2008 to 85 mbbl/d from 95 mbbl/d in 2007. This is mainly due to natural declines at Hibernia & Terra Nova, and planned turnarounds at Terra Nova & White Rose during 2008. The Edmonton Refinery Conversion Project (RCP) cost estimate was revised upwards by 10% to $2.2 billion. Overall company guidance was generally in line with RBC CM’s expectations. RBC CM continues to recommend Petro-Canada based primarily on valuation as it trades at one of the lowest P/NAV multiples within the coverage universe.

Friday 14 December 2007 (PCA : TSX : $51.92 | PCZ : NYSE : US$50.89)
Unwinding the Buzzard hedge contract
Raymond James maintains "outperform", 6-12 month target price is $66.00

Thursday 13 December 2007 (PCA : TSX : $51.64), Net Change: 0.67, % Change: 1.31%, Volume: 2,298,976
Announcing you’re un-hedging on a day that oil runs $4 – sweeter than Yoo-Hoo. Petro-Canada announced it has entered into contracts to close out the hedged portion of its Buzzard production from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2010. The hedged portion current represents about 50% of the company’s share of the plateau production for the Buzzard field. Under the terms of the contracts, the company has repurchased 30,688,000 barrels (bbls) of Dated Brent crude oil at an average price of approximately US$85.79/bbl (C$83.20/bbl), resulting in a settlement of C$1.67 billion, or C$1.11 billion after tax. The company will pay for this with cash and currently available credit lines. The hedges were originally entered into in the second quarter of 2004 and were to be in place for 3.5 years, starting on July 1, 2007 until December 31, 2010 at an average price of approximately US$26/bbl. The company stated, “The hedges were originally put in place to let us acquire the Buzzard field by protecting the project economics, but with higher oil prices and greater expected upside from the Buzzard platform, we no longer need this protection.”

Wednesday 12 December 2007 Petro-Canada closing hedged portion of North Sea Buzzard output
CALGARY — — Petro-Canada is placing a big bet on continuing high oil prices, paying $1.72-billion (U.S.) to buy out hedging contracts on its share of production from the Buzzard field in the British North Sea.
Petro-Canada, which owns 29.9 per cent of Buzzard, said Wednesday it is closing out the hedged portion of its Buzzard production from the start of 2008 through 2010, repurchasing contracts representing 30.7 million barrels of Brent crude at $85.79 per barrel.

Wednesday 12 December 2007 (PCA : TSX : $51.31)
Libyan upstream deal
Canaccord Adams maintains "buy", 12-month target price is $65.00

Friday 30 November 2007 Petro-Canada (PCA : TSX : $49.55)
Held a 2007 Downstream Investor Day
RBC Capital Markets maintains an "outperform", target of $64.00

Tuesday 30 October 2007 Petro-Canada (PCA : TSX : $53.88 | PCZ : NYSE : US$56.55)
Q3 in line
RBC Capital Markets maintains "outperform", 12-month target price is $62.00

Monday 29 October 2007
Petro-Canada (PCA : TSX : $53.09 | PCZ : NYSE : US$55.18)
Q3 slightly below expectations
BMO Capital Markets maintains "outperform", 12-month target price is $60.00

Tuesday 23 October 2007 Petro-Canada (PCA : TSX : $52.00)
Improvements in the asset base
Scotia Capital Markets upgrades to "sector outperform", 12-month target price is cut to $67.00

Monday 22 October 2007

Event
• We have transferred coverage on the common shares of Petro-Canada with a 1-Sector Outperform rating and one-year target price of $67.00 per share (based on the mid-point of our high (US$75/bbl) and low (US$55/bbl) case NAVs). For further details, we refer investors to our two research reports: our valuations focused report entitled "I'll Make You a NAV You Can't Refuse" and our oil sands focused report entitled "Prepare For Glory."
  What It Means
• Historically, Petro-Canada has been a textbook value trap, complete with a slowly declining asset base, poor project execution and a consistent history of missing its production guidance.
• Today, the market has priced it as such, yet we see improvements in the asset base (e.g., Buzzard, oil sands, LNG) and attempts at improving project execution (e.g., hiring Neil Camarta), and think it is time to buy.
• Short-term catalysts include improving production profile with Buzzard and Syncrude Canada Ltd. production, Fort Hills' capex now firm, and project time line is now sound.

  Wednesday 17 October 2007 Petro-Canada (PCA : TSX : $52.67 | PCZ : NYSE : US$53.84)
  Offering attractive long-term value
  BMO Nesbitt Burns upgrades to "outperform", target price cut to $60.00
  

  Wednesday 20 June 2007 PetroChina to raise $6-billion on Shanghai Exchange
  Shares surge in Hong Kong trading, lifting the company's market cap to second in the world behind Exxon Mobil

  May 14 2007 (A Top Pick Aug 3/06. Up 2.6%.) Last quarter was very good. A bit of a “ show me” stock but he would continue to hold. Ian Nakamoto

  Thursday 26 April 2007 Petro Canada, Inc. (PCA) - $48.95 – Strong Q1 From Upstream and Downstream, Raising Price Target
  Outperform, Average Risk, Price Target $58.00
  Q1/07 results beat estimates with EPS of $1.17 vs. consensus expectations of $1.03. Record downstream earnings were driven by strong refinery utilization (96%) and wide crack spreads which were significantly higher than in Q1/06 and which remain at significant premiums of US$10-12/bbl. to New York Harbour and Gulf Coast benchmarks. This is expected to continue into the foreseeable future due to rapid demand growth in Western Canada, flat refining capacity and limited import options.
  East Coast production was up 15% from Q4/06 to 97 mbbl/d and was 12% above full year guidance of 87 mbbl/d, which continues to appear conservative. Increased production at Hibernia, White Rose, Buzzard and Terra Nova should continue through Q2/07.
  Price target is increased from $55 to $58 given strong first quarter results and expectations of continued production growth and wide crack spreads for the remainder of 2007. Our $58.00 price target is a premium of 2% to the estimated 2006 NAV of $56.79 using NYMEX futures prices. This compares to the average target premium of 20% for the integrated group.

  2007-04-18 If you want to play the integrateds, this is the one he would go with. Prefers Encana (ECA-T), Talisman (TLM-T) and CNQ (CNQ-T).Peter Brieger

  2007-02-21 DON'T BUY If a stock, on an up day, is up less than its peers, and down more on a down day, it would not be what you would want to own. Larry Berman

  2007-01-17 BUY Like most energy stocks, the chart shows a long down trend. The chart looks like we are very close to good support and he would be looking to buy some at this point. Risk/reward is very compelling for energy stocks right now. Larry Berman

  Saturday 27 January 2007 Petro-Canada profit slips
  CALGARY — Petro-Canada says its fourth-quarter profit fell to $384-million from a year-ago $714-million amid lower natural gas prices, while full-year earnings dipped to $1.74-billion from $1.79-billion.

  Saturday 27 January 2007 Petro Canada (PCA) - $44.37
  – Q4 Results In Line; But Reserves Additions Slow
  Outperform, Average Risk – Price Target: $53.00
  Petro Canada reported Q4 EPS of $0.98, in line with the RBC CM and consensus estimates. Production for the quarter increased 11% sequentially and was slightly above the RBC CM estimate. The higher production was a result of resumption of production at Terra Nova in November, and new wells coming on stream at two other fields. Buzzard achieved first oil on January 7, 2007 and is expected to reach peak production by mid-2007. Reserve additions were weak and there were negative revisions to North American natural gas in both Western Canada and U.S. Rockies. The target price and rating remain unchanged.

  Tuesday May 9, 2006 rci ST. JOHN'S: PETROCAN TO PAY STIFF FINE
  Canadian energy firm PetroCanada has been condemned to pay a fine of $290,000 for its responsibility in the spilling of more than 1,000 barrels of oil in waters off the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador on Nov. 20, 2004. The fine is the biggest ever imposed for such an offence in Atlantic Canada. The incident occurred on the Terra Nova drilling platform when a faulty apparatus allowed the oil to spill into the sea. During the trial in the case, PetroCan admitted that it knew the apparatus was defective yet did nothing to repair it. PetroCan spent $3 million to recover the spilled oil.

  Petrocan curtails oil patch projects GAM, December 16, 2005 12:00 AM

Thu 12/1/2005 www.canaccord.com = Buy $46 for target = c$70.00
More reserves at Hibernia as much as 300 million barrels

Wednesday Aug 3, 2005 (PCA : TSX : $92.00) Net Change: 3.97, % Change: 4.51%, Volume: 1,683,100
What's to stop China's state-owned CNOOC from making a bid