Tuesday 22 January 2008(PCA): $50.00 - Downgrading To Sector Perform
Sector Perform (prev. Outperform), Average Risk, Price Target: $64.00
RBC CM downgraded PCA to Sector Perform based on relative valuation. RBC CM believes investors should consider reducing exposure in favour of companies with above average all-in implied returns. PCA shares are down 9% since Jan 7th, on average with other Integrateds and Large Caps. Oil prices have dropped from ~8% on the near end of the strip to ~3% on the long end (2013) over the same period. A further decline in oil prices would put pressure on the target price. PCA is focusing on downstream growth over the next few years, while its upstream contribution is expected to decrease proportionally for the company, and production to fall ~5% in 2008 (compared to 2007). Given capital cost pressure on their Edmonton refinery conversion project and the potential impact of labor disputes at their Montreal refinery, RBC CM believes continued risk exists on cost and timing for these downstream growth projects; the main near term catalysts being the company's expected decision on the proposed $1 billion Montreal coker project expected by mid-year, and the potential adverse implications from labour issues at the Montreal refinery in the decision/cost estimate. Similarly, RBC CM believes the market may discount the lack of upstream growth into the stock near term.

Thursday 17 January 2008 (SU : TSX : $97.55) Q4 preview
Credit Suisse maintains "outperform", 12-month target price is raised to $120.00

2007

Thursday 06 December 2007 Suncor Energy (SU) reported today that production at its oil sands facility during November averaged approximately 266,000 barrels per day (bpd). Year-to-date oil sands production at the end of November averaged approximately 236,000 bpd. Suncor is targeting average oil sands production of 240,000 to 245,000 bpd in 2007.

2007

Tuesday 30 October 2007 Suncor Energy (SU : TSX : $102.59 | NYSE : US$107.59)
Q3 in line
RBC Capital Markets maintains "sector perform", 12-month target price is $93.00

Monday 22 October 2007 Reversion to the Mean
Event

• We have transferred coverage on the common shares of Suncor Energy with a 3-Sector Underperform rating and one-year target price of $104.00 per share (based on the mid-point of our high (US$75/bbl) and low (US$55/bbl) case NAVs). For further details, we refer investors to our two research reports: our valuations focused report entitled "I'll Make You a NAV You Can't Refuse" and our oil sands focused report entitled "Prepare For Glory." What It Means
• We believe that in the next 12 months we will see more of the same from Suncor, that is, a continuous, slow and painful march toward mean reversion, both operationally and from a valuation perspective.
• Suncor's next phases of expansion will likely be as expensive as everyone else and we believe final capex cost intensity will ultimately differ from their comparables very slightly
• Both Suncor and Syncrude Canada Ltd. have individual royalty agreements with the Alberta government that do not currently fall under Alberta's generic oil sands royalty regime.

Friday 14 September 2007 Suncor Energy (SU : TSX : $100.07 | NYSE : US$96.96)
Millennium expansion should be completed soon
BMO Capital Markets maintains "outperform", 12-month target price is raised to $110.00

Thursday 28 June 2007 SUNCOR ENERGY(SU)$93.25 – TRAGET FALLS ON POTENTIAL FOR DELAYS.RATING: SECTOR PERFORM. TARGET: $93.00 (WAS $97.00). RISK RATING: AVERAGE. INDUSTRY RATING: UNDERWEIGHT.
Suncor proceeded with its planned shutdown of one upgrader on May 31st in order to tie-in new facilities for future expansions. While the Company expects the shutdown to last 50 days, we are now modeling a 70-day shutdown to account for delays and a slower ramp up. As a result, our oil sands production falls to 248 mboe/d (was 255 mboe/d) – we believe it is likely SU will reduce its 2007 guidance again. 2007 CFPS falls to $6.27/sh (was $6.34/sh) – partly offset by our commodity price revision (lower gas prices, higher crack spreads). We note that an extended turnaround would likely come at additional costs which is not included in our model. Also looming is Suncor’s cost estimate for its 200 mboe/d Voyageur expansion expected late in Q3 or early in Q4. We are currently assuming a capital cost of $14 bln ($70,000 bpd) based on our US$45/bbl long-term price, however, we would not be surprised to see costs trend in the $16-$18 bln range ($80,000-$90,000 bpd) given the pace of development and recent cost estimates. The sector was given a boost in May and June by transactions of non-producing assets, with momentum also benefiting the incumbent producers. However, with renewed discussion regarding national security in the context of acquisitions by foreign companies, we do not believe Suncor is a target. As a result of our revised outlook our target falls to $93.00 (was $97.00). This is in closer agreement to our strip-based NAV of $88.00. Suncor remains at the margins of a Sector Perform and we would not add to positions at current prices.

Friday 27 April 2007 Suncor Energy, Inc. (SU) - $90.10 – Strong Downstream Results Boost Q1 Sector perform, Average Risk, Price Target $93.00 Thursday 26 April 2007
Suncor warns of cost pressures
Profit slips as oil sands giant scales back planned 2007 production

Saturday 27 January 2007 Suncor Energy (SU) - $86.81
– Q4 Results: Higher Oil Sands Operating Costs
Sector Perform, Average Risk – Price Target: $88.00
Suncor announced Q4 EPS of $0.81, lower than the RBC CM estimate of $1.20 and consensus of $1.07. The lower earnings results were due to 1) higher oil sands operating costs; 2) increased oil sands royalties; and 3) lower downstream results. Due to the rising cost trend RBC CM has reduced its earnings estimate for 2007 by 7% to $4.47 from $4.78. The longer term operating costs have been increased slightly, which resulted in a reduction of the NAV for 2005 and 2006 by $1 per share to $69.85 and $78.29.

Tuesday Oct 4, 2005 globe Suncor boosts output

Energy producer increases oil sands production capacity to 260,000 barrels a day

8:34 AM | FULL STORY 

Friday Aug 5, 2005 cc Suncor Energy (SU : TSX : $66.35) Net Change: 3.23, % Change: 5.12%, Volume: 2,637,300 I'd buy that for a dollar! China's state-owned CNOOC (CEO) can't buy Petro- Canada (PCA), but can they buy Suncor? Who wouldn't be interested in Suncor? The company's future is built on years of experience in developing one of the world's largest petroleum resource basins - Canada's oil sands. As the first company to commercially develop the oil sands, they have assembled a high quality resource base that is estimated to contain the raw materials to produce a potential 11 billion barrels of conventional quality crude oil. While declining production from mature basins forces conventional producers to drill deeper and in more remote locations, Suncor can focus on developing the technology and expertise to increase production and build on their position as one of the lowest cost crude oil producers in North America.