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 TransAlta.
2008
Wednesday 23 April 2008
(TA : TSX : $33.41 | TAC : NYSE : US$33.19) Starts 2008 with strong quarter
Canaccord Adams maintains a "sell", target price is $30.00
Credit Suisse maintains "outperform", 12-month target price is $40.00
Desjardins Securities maintains "hold", 12-month target price is $33.00
TD Newcrest maintains "hold", 12-month target price is $32.00
Tuesday 22 April 2008 TransAlta (TA) - $33.66 - Rising PRB Coal Prices Could Dampen Future EPS Growth
Sector Perform, Above Average Risk - Price Target $35.00
Q1/08 normalized EPS was $0.47 compared to Q1/07 normalized EPS of $0.33. Consensus estimate for the quarter was $0.45. Generation EBIT benefited from improved power prices in Alberta and at the Centralia plant, as well as reduced derates at the Centralia plant related to the test burning of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal in Q1/07. The company announced that it is proceeding with a $75 million uprate at Sundance unit 5, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2009. Since TransAlta decided in late 2006 to switch to burn PRB coal at Centralia and the spot price of PRB coal has risen about 25%. However, the company has supply contracts in place for the next one to two years. In 2010 when current contracts have all expired, a 25% increase in the spot price could negatively impact EPS by about $0.10/share. The shares should trade in a range of $30 to $35, with strong buying support at the $30 level as a result of the company's share buyback program with the shares being fully valued should they reach $35
Friday 11 April 2008 TransAlta (TA : TSX : $33.06), Net Change: 1.85, % Change: 5.93%, Volume: 1,485,636
"Ah'll be bahk." - The Governator. TransAlta’s largest shareholder, the Luminus Group, filed an application with FERC,
seeking approval to acquire over 10% of TransAlta’s shares to a maximum of 20% and disclosed an 8.9% stake in the company
(roughly 18 million shares). Despite an announcement on March 18 that it was withdrawing its nomination of four Candidates
from TransAlta’s Board, as well as withdrawing its shareholder proposals to be considered at the company’s Annual General
Meeting, Luminus increased its ownership position by about one million shares (up from its 8.4% stake). We are unsure of the
rationale behind this decision, but Canaccord Adams Pipeline & Power Utilities Analyst Bob Hastings believes TransAlta is
currently at fair value and that better opportunities exist in the market. Strong Alberta pricing in April may have been an
influencing factor in TransAlta's share price rebound recently, but this could well be short lived. Power prices appear to be
driven up by recent material coal plant outages rather than growing demand or a tightening market.
Friday 11 April 2008 (TA : TSX : $32.94) Luminus back for more?
Canaccord Adams maintains a "sell", target price is $30.00
Wednesday 26 March 2008 (TA) - $30.33 - Board Formalizes Dividend Policy; Shares Likely Range Bound
Sector Perform, Above Average Risk, Price Target: $35.00
TransAlta's Board of Directors announced a formal dividend policy that targets a payout ratio of 60% to 70% of "comparable earnings". For 2008, the current $1.08/share dividend represents a 69% payout of RBC CM’s 2008 EPS estimate. For 2009, RBC CM forecasts a dividend of $1.16/share, which represents a 66% payout of its 2009 EPS estimate. In 2007, TransAlta repurchased 2.4 million shares at an average price of $31.59/share, which indicates that the board sees value at those levels. As such, RBC CM thinks that $30/share represents a "floor price" given approximately 9 million shares expected to be repurchased using the sale proceeds of the sale of the two Mexican plants coupled with other normal course repurchases. Over the next year, any upside will be capped at RBC CM’s $35/share price target given the overall valuation compared to its peers. RBC CM expects the share price to be less volatile given the withdrawal of Luminus' shareholder proposals to be voted on at the AGM. RBC CM believes that some of the short-term oriented shareholders looking for changes at the AGM as a catalyst for upside in the share price have now exited the stock.
Friday 22 February 2008 (TA : TSX : $34.73 | TAC : NYSE : US$34.48) Sells Mexican plants
RBC Capital Markets maintains "sector perform", 12-month target price is raised to $35.00
Thursday 21 February 2008 TransAlta (TA : TSX : $35.41), Net Change: 0.76, % Change: 2.19%, Volume: 1,504,006
There goes the spice. TransAlta is selling its Mexican assets to InterGen Global Ventures for US$303.5 million. The sale is
expected to close by the end of Q2 and Canaccord Adams believes it will be accretive to earnings. TransAlta expects to take a
C$55-65 million ($0.27-0.32 per share) charge to its Q1 earnings to reflect the difference between the purchase price and book
value of the business. The sale price appears to be at the low end of Street expectations, though Canaccord Adams Utilities
Analyst Bob Hastings had already expected the sale price to be negatively impacted by the current liquidity crisis and rising
debt costs. Recent changes to Mexican taxes would not have helped either. Last year, it appeared that the assets could have
fetched around $400 million in what was becoming a frothy power market. As expected, TransAlta plans to use a significant
portion of the proceeds to buy back shares. In other news, this week, Luminus Management LLC and LS Power, collectively
TransAlta's largest shareholders holding approximately 8% of the company’s outstanding shares, announced their nominations
for four individuals to stand for elections to TransAlta’s Board of Directors. The Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders will be held on April 22. If Luminus is unsuccessful in appointing their nominees to TransAlta’s Board would they sell their 20-
30 million shares back into the market? TransAlta is looking to have a similar-sized share buyback, potentially mitigating the
negative impact of such a sale.
(TA) - $35.41 - Sells Mexican Plants For US$303.5 Million
Sector Perform, Above Average Risk, Price Target: $35.00
As expected, TransAlta sold its two Mexican power plants. TransAlta will receive US$303.5 million from InterGen Global Ventures B.V. for its two gas-fired power plants totaling 511 MW of capacity. The sale price is consistent with the US$300 million to US$325 million expected proceeds. The sale is roughly $0.05/share accretive to EPS in 2009, the first full year following the sale. As such, RBC CM increased its 2008 and 2009 EPS estimates to $1.57 and $1.77, respectively (from $1.55 and $1.72, Consistent with previous statements, management expects to use a significant portion of the sale proceeds to buy back its common shares.
Tuesday 05 February 2008 (TA : TSX : $32.35 | TAC : NYSE : US$32.64)
Strong quarter from Centralia; 8% dividend increase
BMO Nesbitt Burns maintains a "underperform", target price is $30.00
Canaccord Adams maintains a "sell", target price raised to $30.00
Desjardins Securities maintains a "hold", target price raised to $34.00
RBC Capital Markets maintains a "sector perform", target price is $35.00
TD Newcrest upgrades to "hold", 12-month target price is raised to $31.00
TransAlta (TA) - $32.52 - A Little Something for Everybody?
Sector Perform, Above Average Risk, Price Target: $35.00
TransAlta's Q4 normalized EPS was $0.47 compared to RBC CM’s estimate of $0.42 and consensus of $0.43 per share. The better-than-expected results are primarily due to strong realized pricing at Centralia. TA increased its dividend from $1.00 per share to $1.08 per share, an increase of 8%. Management commented that there has been significant interest in the two plants, and that the proceeds if it decides to sell the plants would be used to repurchase shares. RBC CM’s updated analysis indicates a sale price in the range of $300 million to $325 million, which combined with a share buyback could be roughly $0.06/share accretive to EPS. RBC CM thinks that TransAlta will look to deliver a high single-digit annual dividend increase (i.e. about $0.08/year) and evaluate certain assets over the next several years as potential asset sales candidates (e.g. Australian plants, TA Cogen). Reasons for its commitment to an investment grade credit rating included the ability to support long-term contracting and trading activities and enabling access to Canadian debt capital markets to better manage its foreign exchange exposure.
Thursday 24 January 2008 TransAlta Corp. (TA : TSX : $30.09)
Fourth-quarter earnings expected February 1
Credit Suisse rates a "outperform", target price is $36.00
Friday 18 January 2008 TransAlta Corp. (TA : TSX : $31.97)
Large shareholder releases a plan to unlock value
Canaccord Adams maintains "sell", 12-month target price is $27.00
Desjardins Securities maintains "hold", 12-month target price is $33.00
RBC Capital Markets maintains "sector perform", 12-month target price is $35.00
Scotia Capital Markets maintains "sector underperform", 12-month target price is cut to $31.50
Thursday 17 January 2008 TransAlta (TA) - $32.70 - Luminous Provides Detailed Proposal
Sector Perform, Above Average Risk, Price Target: $35.00
Luminus released a detailed set of recommendations to improve TransAlta's shareholder value. Luminus, which holds an approximate 8% interest in TransAlta's stock, released a "white paper" that detailed a five-point plan outlining its recommendations that it believes will enhance shareholder value. The White Paper highlighted five actions: (1) potential asset sales (Mexico, Australia, renewables, and TA Cogen); (2) increase debt to non-investment grade levels (BB rating proposed); (3) fund new projects and acquisitions using project level capital; (4) buy back stock (from proceeds of #1 and #2); and (5) reduce management's cash compensation and replace with options, and bring on board level IPP experience. RBC CM believes the main thrust of the proposal is to increase shareholder leverage to the potential upside from the expiration of the under-market Alberta PPAs. Increased leverage would be achieved through focusing the assets (i.e. asset sales) and using the proceeds plus higher overall levels of debt to buy back stock. To further "appease" the company's more conservative investors who are seeking dividend stability and annual dividend growth, RBC CM believes that the board of directors may announce a $0.05/share dividend increase in early February concurrent with the Q4 results.
Thursday 17 January 2008 TransAlta (TA : TSX : $32.70), Net Change: 0.00, % Change: 0.00%, Volume: 695,015
What makes something a “White Paper?” Luminus Management, LLC and LS Power (Luminus Group), TransAlta’s largest
shareholder released a White Paper entitled, “An Operator’s Guide to Unlocking Value at TransAlta.” Luminus Group outlined
what they call a “five-point plan” to enhance shareholder value at TransAlta. The plan includes the following: 1) Undertake a
strategic review of TransAlta’s assets to rationalize its complex portfolio: A) Consider selling its assets in the non-core Mexican
and Australian markets; B) Explore the sale or a partial IPO of its “green” portfolio; and C) Explore the sale of TransAlta’s controlling interest in the TA Cogen assets. 2) Reduce TransAlta’s cost of capital by raising low cost debt. TransAlta is the only
IPP with an investment grade credit rating and is under-leveraged. A BB credit rating would allow the company to access more
low-cost debt capital while maintaining its annual dividend; 3) Fund construction of development projects and acquisitions
using third party project level capital rather than funding on the TransAlta balance sheet; 4) Initiate a meaningful stock buyback,
and 5) Align management incentives with shareholders’ objectives and bring on board level IPP experience. The Luminus
Group is the beneficial holder of approximately 8% of TransAlta’s outstanding shares.
2007
Wednesday 19 December 2007 (TA : TSX : $32.99) Considering LSP's proposals
Desjardins Securities maintains "hold", 12-month target price is $33.00
Tuesday 18 December 2007 (TA : TSX : $33.19), Net Change: -0.26, % Change: -0.78%, Volume: 853,215
Luminus Maximus. In an SEC filing, LSP Penn Holdings LLC (a.k.a. Luminus Capital) disclosed that it has sent a letter to
TransAlta’s board of directors outlining four shareholder proposals. Luminus currently owns 8% of the outstanding shares of
TransAlta Corporation and appears to be attempting to initiate strategic change at TransAlta. LSP Penn Holdings proposals: 1)
Amending the articles to fix the number of directors at 11 and to provide for cumulative voting; 2) Notification of its intent to
nominate up to five directors to be named at or prior to the 2008 shareholder meeting in addition to or as replacement for
existing directors; 3) Limiting the ability of certain members of senior management to serve on the board of any financial
services firm that also provides financial and advisory services to the company and to retain an independent investment bank to
perform a review of strategic alternatives for the company, and; 4) Requiring the company to disclose in its proxy circular on an
annual basis certain information relating to the retention of and compensation arrangements with consultants and advisors that
provide services to the company during the year. TransAlta remains reluctant to implement changes previously suggested by
Luminus, including significantly leveraging up the balance sheet, foregoing current development of projects, divesting of its
“green assets” and using the proceeds to repurchase shares. TransAlta suggests it prefers to focus on adding long-term value
rather than proposals geared toward a very short-term impact that could later impede the company’s growth opportunities or
even its financial solvency.
Friday 30 November 2007 TransAlta Corp. (TA : TSX : $31.60)
Recent investor day highlighted longer-term opportunities
Canaccord Adams maintains a "sell", target of $27.00
RBC Capital Markets maintains a "sector perform", target of $31.00
Scotia Capital maintains a "sector underperform", target of $32.00
?Thursday 25 October 2007 TransAlta Corp. (TA : TSX : $31.25 | TAC : NYSE : US$32.26)
Q3 in line but headwinds ahead
BMO Nesbitt Burns maintains a "underperform", target price is $30.00
Canaccord Adams maintains "sell", 12-month target price is $27.00
Desjardins Securities maintains a "hold", target price raised to $32.00
RBC Capital Markets maintains a "sector perform", target price is $31.00
Wednesday 24 October 2007 TransAlta Corp. (TA-T, TAC-N) C$31.29 Linda Ezergailis, P.Eng., 416 983 7784.
REDUCE (Unchanged);Target: C$27.00 (Unchanged)
Q3/07 Earnings In-Line With Expectations
Monday 22 October 2007
TransAlta (TA : TSX : $30.92), Net Change: -0.63, % Change: -2.00%, Volume: 714,852
Bob, did you see what you did to the Dow? Canaccord Adams Power & Pipes Analyst Bob Hastings downgraded TransAlta, as
he has become increasingly concerned that his forecast for an Alberta electricity pricing peak that he had for the past two years
may be cut short or significantly delayed. While prices are up substantially from two years ago, Bob believes even current prices
will negatively impact both our estimate of TransAlta’s earnings and its near-term valuation. A key indication of what Bob is
warning about is a chart he includes in his latest comment, of the Alberta monthly average hourly power demand. Bob told us
that the amount of denial or disbelief this little chart garners from various people he has shown is remarkable. We won’t get into
the details of this long report and would strongly suggest you read it for yourself. But keep this in mind: Bob was the first
analyst to table-pound TransAlta’s turnaround three years ago. Very few believed him, very few agreed with his logic. A good
switch idea to consider is to be to buy TransCanada Pipe (TRP). See our TransCanada comment below.
Wednesday 17 October 2007
TransAlta Corp. (TA : TSX : $30.85)
Hong Kong-based infrastructure company comes for TransAlta Power
Desjardins Securities maintains a "hold", target price is $30.00
Thursday 13 September 2007 TransAlta Corp. (TA : TSX : $29.57 | TAC : NYSE : US$28.50)
Expanded buyback program
Desjardins Securities maintains "hold", 12-month target price is $30.00
RBC Capital Markets maintains "sector perform", 12-month target price is $31.00
Wednesday 12 September 2007 TransAlta (TA) - $29.72 - Extended Buyback Program A Precursor to Upcoming Asset Sale
Sector Perform, Above Average Risk, Price Target: $31.00
TransAlta expanded its normal course issuer bid to 20.2 million shares from 3.0 million. The expanded program leads RBC CM to believe that an asset sale could be forthcoming as TA does not generate enough free cash flow to fully utilize the orginal 3.0 million share buyback, let alone the expanded program. The most likely divestitures are the two Mexican plants, but other potential asset sales include the two Australian plants or its 50.01% interest in TransAlta Cogeneration, L.P. Selling the Mexican Plants could be about $0.14 per share accretive to earnings. Barring a severe market downturn or a negative announcement from the company, the potential value creation from a sale of the Mexican assets coupled with a share repurchase could create a floor price at the $29 per share level, where the company has already repurchased 282,300 shares.
CP submitted a Form 6K to the SEC, which provided additional details in regards to its proposed acquisition of DM&E. One of the more significant disclosures contains additional details on post-closing payments, milestone payments related to coal tonnages, and the timing of payments. The submission also outlines what constitutes the commencement of construction on the Powder River Basin project, which is significant since CP must make a $350 million payment when this condition is satisfied. The conditions by which the agreement may be terminated by either party are detailed, and state that if the "Effective Time" has not occurred by October 31st, either party may terminate the agreement provided specific conditions are met. As management stated in its conference call following the announcement of the deal, there will not be any break-up fee or liability on the part of either party terminating the agreement in accordance with the conditions listed in the 6K submission. RBC CM continues to believe the acquisition is a good strategic fit, providing CP with access to key geographical markets in the U.S., increased exposure to growth-oriented product segments, and the a potentially significant growth opportunity in hauling coal from the Powder River Basin.
Thursday 02 August 2007 TransAlta Corporation (TA) - $31.87 - U.S. IPP Valuations: How Does TransAlta Stack Up Raising Price Target
Underperform, Above Average Risk, Price Target $27.00
One of the factors for the increase in TransAlta's share price has been comparisons to U.S. Independent Power Producers (IPPs), which are often valued using an EV/EBITDA approach. Using this metric, arguments have been made that TransAlta appears undervalued. RBC CM believes that TransAlta is not undervalued due to accounting differences for maintenance spending and reduced upside exposure to improving power markets. RBC CM has increased its price target to $27.00 which implies a multiple of 10.4x 2009E Free EBITDA. A 10.4x Free EBITDA multiple is in line with its U.S. peers.
Thursday 26 April 2007 TransAlta Corporation (TA) - $27.93 – Q1/07 results Lower Than Expected
Underperform, Above Average Risk, Price Target $24.00
Q1/07 results were lower than expected as TransAlta reported normalized EPS of $0.33 vs. consensus of $0.35. Q1/06 EPS was $0.38. Poor results were due to a greater-than-expected equity loss from TransAlta's Mexican operations as a result of higher maintenance and other operating expenses. The increased equity loss was partially offset by lower-than-expected net interest expense. RBC CM is leaving its 2007 EPS estimates unchanged. Continued increases in TransAlta’s share price are primarily due to takeover speculation. RBC CM’s analysis indicates that the leveraged buyout (LBO) economics are unattractive and that a $75/MWh sustained Alberta power price would be required for an acquirer to achieve attractive IRRs and as such RBC CM continue to recommend that investors take advantage of the share price strength to reduce positions. Price target of $24.00 (unchanged) reflects a dividend of $1.00 and a required dividend yield of 4.2%.
RBC January 29, 2007 TransAlta (TA) - $26.32- Q4 Results
Underperform, Above Average Risk – Price Target: $24.00
TransAlta reported solid Q4 results, with normalized EPS of $0.28 vs. RBC CM’s estimate of $0.22. The upside was due to strong power prices in Alberta. TransAlta faces challenges at the Centralia project due to the switch to Powder River Basin coal, which include de-rating the plant through 2007 in addition to costs associated with the switch. Management also stated that Alberta coal costs rose by about $25 million in 2006 with a further expected increase of $30 million in 2007 before generally leveling off in 2008 and 2009. Most of the higher Alberta coal costs are apparently not recoverable under the Power Purchase Arrangements.
Monday Jul 25, 2005 cc TransAlta (TA : TSX : $21.40)
Net Change: -0.10, % Change: -0.47%, Volume: 379,300
If you fall I will catch you - I'll be waiting. Time after time. Is it
TransAlta's time Canaccord Capital Power & Pipes Analyst Bob Hastings
believes that TransAlta's shares should rise in three phases from the
recent trough. The first phase, now largely realized, was when investors
concluded that the company's dividend was safe, with the stock then
reflecting the full value of its $1.00 dividend. The next phase will occur
as earnings rebound to a normalized level, likely as a result of improving
power prices and as underutilized assets begin to earn a return. This phase
should drive earnings to around $1.40-1.50 and could push the stock to the
mid-to-high $20.00's - TransAlta is now entering this phase of the cycle.
The last phase will begin when power markets get tight and electricity
prices rise in order to attract new capacity. This could potentially push
the stock over its previous $30.00 high. TransAlta has the best leverage to
higher electricity prices, suggesting significant upside and a healthy
dividend to be had while investors wait
Monday Jul 4, 2005 cc TransAlta Corp. (TA : TSX : $20.43) - Buy - Target: $22.00
Bob Hastings Comment: TransAlta's EVP/CFO is retiring
TransAlta's Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer, Ian
Bourne, will be retiring by the end of 2006 after nine years of service
with the company. Mr. Bourne plans to become more active as a director on
corporate boards and stay involved in the community. While a sudden change
in a CEO or CFO creates uncertainty, this orderly transition to a new CFO
in about six months, signals no dramatic change to the company or its
direction. TransAlta has begun the recruitment process and is implementing
a plan in order to ensure internal and external continuity. To facilitate
an effective transition, Mr. Bourne will play a key role in the recruitment
of his replacement. Mr. Bourne will continue as Chief Financial Officer
until his replacement is appointed and he will continue to work on
strategic corporate issues until his retirement in 2006. Consequently, it
should be perceived by investors as neutral to TransAlta's share price. We
continue to rate the stock BUY with a $22.00 target price.
Thursday Jun 16, 2005 cc TransAlta (TA : TSX : $20.55)
Net Change: 0.29, % Change: 1.43%, Volume: 623,800
Sarnia Rocks. TransAlta announced Wednesday that negotiations with the
Ontario Power Authority towards a contract for the company's Sarnia
Regional Cogeneration Plant are expected to begin shortly. Currently, the
$490 million gas-fired plant is providing steam and electricity to
operations of Bayer (BAY), Dow Chemical Canada (DOW), Nova Chemicals (NCX)
and Suncor (SU). Investors should watch for developments on this front
closely, as the establishment of a contract would enable the plant to sell
the balance of the power produced to the OPA, improving the capacity
utilization of the plant, and potentially providing a boost to TransAlta's
earnings.
Wednesday Feb 2 (TA-T C$19.29) Q4/04 EPS In Line
Event ¦ TA reported earnings of $0.19/share for Q4/04 ($0.17/share recurring in Q3/04) that matched our $0.19/share estimate and beat the First Call average of $0.18/share by $0.01/share.
TA will redeem all of its 7.5% and 8.15% preferred securities on February 15, 2005 using
proceeds from selling 7.114M TA Power L.P. units and a 25% interest in the Meridian Cogeneration plant.
Rating: -- 1-SO Risk: -- High Target: 1-Yr $23.00 2-Yr -- $25.00
06/03/2004 ccn CALGARY, ALBERTA ts Reclaimed TransAlta coal mine becomes the heart of new conservation area The Alberta Fish & Game Association and TransAlta today officially opened the
365-hectare Wabamun Whitewood Conservation Properties located 70
kilometres west of Edmonton on Highway 16 at Wabamun Lake.
Thursday May 31, 2004 CALGARY, ALBERTA ts Reclaimed TransAlta coal mine to become new conservation area Media invited to the official opening of Wabamun Whitewood
Conservation Properties
The Alberta Fish & Game Association and TransAlta invite the
media to attend the official opening of the 1,000 acre Wabamun
Whitewood Conservation Properties located 70 kilometres west of
Edmonton on Highway 16 at Wabamun Lake.
CALGARY, ALBERTA tsTransAlta Corporation (NYSE:TAC)(TSX:TA) has
restructured its Canadian commercial paper program (the "Program"). A
maximum of $200 million of short-term notes may be issued and
outstanding under the Program at any time. Notes will be issued by
TransAlta and guaranteed by TransAlta Utilities Corporation ("TAU"), a
wholly-owned subsidiary of TransAlta. The obligations guaranteed by
TAU rank equally with its secured debentures.
CALGARY, ALBERTA ts(CCNMatthews - Apr 30, 2004) - TransAlta
Corporation (TSX: TA; NYSE: TAC) announced today it declared a
dividend of $0.25 per share on common shares payable July 1, 2004
to shareholders of record at the close of business June 1, 2004.
CALGARY,04/22/2004 ts
Alberta--TransAlta Corporation (NYSE: TAC) (TSX: TA) today
announced net earnings for first quarter 2004 of $47.2 million ($0.25
per common share), compared to 2003 first quarter net earnings of
$48.7 million ($0.28 per share). First quarter earnings included lower
operating, maintenance and administration expenses offset by lower
prices and higher interest and depreciation.
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