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2008
today $ 10yr chart
Thursday 13 November 2008 TORONTO: LOONIE SUFFERS WORST DIP
The Canadian dollar suffered its worst one-day drop in trading against its U.S. counterpart, losing 2.77 cents to close at US.80.81. Analysts say the drop is due to falling prices for such commodities as oil, metals and minerals, as well as by global economic uncertainty. One expert cited by the Canadian Press said that investors were made nervous by the announcement by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson that a $700-billion federal rescue plan for banks won't be used to purchase toxic mortgages from banks as originally planned.
Saturday 25 October 2008 Some Currencies Plunge as Stocks Sink Worldwide
WASHINGTON — Fear that the financial crisis is infecting once-healthy economies created another white-knuckle day for investors Friday, causing stocks to tumble from Tokyo to New York.
Saturday 11 October 2008 Loonie's slide steepest in 38 years
The Canadian dollar suffered its biggest one-day drop in almost 38 years and oil slid below $78 (U.S.) a barrel yesterday as investors continued panic selling across the board on global markets.
Wednesday 27 August 2008 Dollar increases against the euro
The dollar has benefited from gloomy times in Europe
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The dollar has climbed back to a six-month high against the euro, as continuing fears about the European economy hit the single currency.
With a key German business sentiment survey posting its worst reading in three years, the euro fell as low as $1.4571 in Tuesday trading.
Data showing that the German economy contracted from April to June, also increased European recession fears.
Tuesday Aug 12, 2008 Loonie lumbers lower
The Canadian dollar is more likely to drop below 90 U.S. cents than return to recent levels above the greenback, as a faltering...
Osborne said he expects the norm for the Canadian dollar to be somewhere in the range of 90 to 95 U.S. cents in the next three to five months.
Sunday 10 August 2008 TORONTO: CDN. DOLLAR SWOONS
The bleak job report was one of the factors that pushed the Canadian dollar ever lower in trading against its U.S. counterpart. Canada's currency fell US1.28 cents and closed at US93.69, its lowest level since last August. The loonie was also affected by sinking oil prices and indications that commodity prices have for the moment peaked. A barrel of oil dropped to US$115, after having risen to US$147 on July 11, amid signs of lower demand. The developments are accompanied by a rise of the U.S. dollar.
Saturday 09 August 2008 TORONTO: DOLLAR SLIDE CONTINUES
The Canadian dollar fell below US95 cents for the first time in almost a year on Thursday on a major drop in the price of oil. The dollar has been descending all week with a drop in commodities and a rise of the U.S. dollar. The last time Canada's currency was at the US94-cent level was last September.
Wednesday 06 August 2008 OTTAWA: DOLLAR TUMBLES
The Canadian dollar dipped by US1.38 to US95.98 cents, having fallen earlier in the day as low as US95.68. The development was apparently due to low prices for oil and other commodities. Oil fell as low as US$118 a barrel, of 19 per cent from US$147 in mid-July.
Thursday Jul 24, 2008 Strong loonie makes Canadian cities more expensive for foreign firms
The strong dollar has made Canadian cities relatively more expensive places for foreign firms to relocate their employees...
Wednesday Jul 9, 2008 Loonie ready to soar: analysts
The Canadian dollar is "looking cheap," considering how high oil prices have risen, analysts say, with one projecting the...
Tuesday Jul 8, 2008 Canadian dollar is looking cheap: analysts
Canadians shouldn't be surprised if the loonie climbs to the $1.10 US range this year.
"We conclude that appreciation of the Canadian dollar remains a response waiting to happen," said Global Insight chief economist Dale Orr, who in an interview suggested the currency could rise as high as $1.10.
Friday 13 June 2008 OTTAWA: STRONG DOLLAR HELPING CONSUMERS LITTLE
One of Canada's chartered banks says shoppers are still not fully benefiting from the rise in strength of the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Montreal says a study of prices in the United States and Canada shows that Canadians are paying 18 per cent more, even though the Canadian and U.S. dollars have almost the same value. The survey found that prices for cars and books have come down considerably but are still higher in Canada.
Thursday Jun 12, 2008 Price parity is overdue, BMO says
Last year, when the Canadian dollar was nearing parity with American currency, Canadian retailers said they couldn't create...
The report, written by Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist for BMO Capital Markets, noted that a price comparison using a basket of various goods a year ago showed an average price gap of 24 per cent between Canada and the U.S.
Friday Mar 21, 2008 Loonie falls farther below parity
Lowest level in two months. Decline of commodities-driven dollar unlikely to continue, analysts say
The Canadian dollar sunk to its lowest level in two months ahead of the Easter long weekend, settling... The loonie closed at 97.71 cents U.S. yesterday, down 78 basis points on the day.
Thursday 20 March 2008 TORONTO: CANADIAN DOLLAR PLUNGES
The Canadian dollar fell 2.19 cents in trading against its U.S. counterpart to close at US98.49 in the Canadian currency's biggest one-day drop in 46 years. It was the loonie's lowest close in one month. The plunge of the dollar is owing to the matching drop in such commodities as gold, oil, aluminum, copper and other metals, as well as such agricultural items as wheat, corn and soybeans, all of which are staples of the Canadian economy. This occurred amidst concerns that the troubles of the U.S. economic may spread worldwide. Some of the concerns are being expressed in the Asian countries that are good customers for Canadian commodities.
Wednesday 27 February 2008 TORONTO: DOLLAR SIZZLES
The Canadian dollar surged for the second straight day on Tuesday in trading against its U.S. counterpart, closing at $US101.79, up 1.31 cents and up about three cents in two days. The last time the Canadian currency closed over US$101 was Dec. 28. The Bank of Canada's deputy governor, John Murray, has told the House of Commons industry committee that high global commodity prices and other factors are "real and persistent forces." Mr. Murray also noted that a strong Canadian dollar helps productivity by reducing the cost of imported machinery, while a weak dollar would likely cause inflation. The euro also rose to a record level against the U.S. dollar, closing at almost $1.50.
Saturday Feb 16, 2008 Loonie's purchasing power lagging despite U.S. parity
Five months after the loonie hit par with the U.S. greenback, prices are still an average 20 per cent...
Friday Feb 15, 2008 Canadians pay more [+45%]than Americans for same products
Canadians spend more than 20 per cent more for the same products sold in the United Statesm ....always cheaper in the United States, with an average 34 per cent disparity between the cost of the same toys sold on both sides of the border, the survey shows. Food and clothing also cost 30 per cent more in Canada.
...then we must add tax +15%
Monday 11 February 2008 Canadian Dollar (FXCAU : US$1.0002), Net Change: 0.0090, % Change: 0.90%
And to think Canada's warmer cities still contain perfectly healthy, able-bodied young people asking for spare change.
Canada added 46,400 jobs in January, which was quadruple (that means "four times", for all you squeegee kid Morning Coffee
readers) what economists expected. Clearly, the slowdown in America has yet to translate to Canada, even though there is wide
consensus that the health of our largest trading partner will affect us. Canada's unemployment rate sits at 5.8% in January, down
from 6% the month previous. The Bank of Canada recently lowered its growth estimate for Canada this year. With results like
this, there is even less reason for them to lower rates, placing greater support behind the Loonie. Remember, Canada cut its key
benchmark rate only 25 basis points last month while America moved theirs down 125 basis points.
Wednesday 06 February 2008 Canadian dollar secret weapon for bond investors
Global bond investors get a rare break
Thursday 17 January 2008 OTTAWA: LOONIE HITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE NOVEMBER
Slumping crude oil prices Wednesday brought the Canadian dollar down to its lowest level since last November. At midday, the loonie had dropped 0.87 of a cent to 97.50 cents US. That was the lowest the loonie had been since the beginning of November that saw it surge to a $1.10 US before tempering during the remainder of the year. The loonie's previous low during that period was 97.56 cents US on Dec. 14. By the end of the day the loonie had rebounded slightly, closing at 97.60 cents US, down 0.77 of a cent. Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell $2.19 US a barrel Wednesday morning on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The senior economist at CIBC World Markets, Avery Shenfeld, said the weakness in commodity prices comes amid ongoing fears the US is falling into recession. He said the fear is spilling over into a weaker picture for the resource-oriented Canadian dollar. The loonie is sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices because of Canada's largely resource-based economy.
Monday 14 January 2008 Canadian Dollar (FXCAU : US$0.9807), Net Change: -0.0104, % Change: -1.05%
Kind of like the Nintendo game Duck Hunt. The Loonie has dropped for six days in a row, its longest drop since last spring.
On Friday, the economy was reported to have unexpectedly lost 18,700 jobs, much worse than the 15,000 increase expected
amongst 26 economists. This poor result was foreshadowed by America’s bad jobs figures the Friday previous. According to
Bloomberg, the Canadian economy will expand 2.1% in 2008, according to the median forecasts. In 2007, Canada probably
grew 2.6% and the U.S., 2.2%. With the the apparent weakness in the U.S., these economists may prove to be overly optimistic.
The saving grace for the Loonie is that Canada is not expected to lower interest rates as aggressively as the Fed (futures suggest
a 100% probability for a 50 basis point drop on January 30). The Bank of Canada is expected to reduce rates when it meets on
January 22 while the FOMC meets January 29 and 30.
Saturday 12 January 2008 TORONTO: FLAHERTY SAYS LOONIE WILL REMAIN VOLATILE
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says Canadians can expect their dollar to remain volatile. Mr. Flaherty said Friday he was not worried after the loonie dropped more than a cent on word the economy lost nearly 19,000 jobs in December. The minister said the Finance Department supports the Bank of Canada's target for the loonie somewhere in the mid-90-cent US range. The Canadian dollar was down almost a cent and a half in morning trading but recovered somewhat to 98.16 cents in the afternoon before closing at 98.07 cents US, down 1.20 cents from Thursday. In November the loonie climbed to $1.10 US. The December job loss was mainly due to the lack of hiring in the private sector. It came after seven straight months of gains. Despite fewer jobs, the unemployment rate held steady at 5.9 per cent.
Tuesday 08 January 2008 Canadian Dollar (FXCAU : US$0.9947), Net Change: -0.0023, % Change: -0.23%
The Loonie bullets a Dodge. David Dodge said that a Loonie exchange of US$0.90-0.95 would be “totally justified” by the
historic relationship between the currency, commodity exports and economic strength. He added that the “appreciation of
Canadian dollar against U.S. dollar is clearly having a slightly greater downside impact on our domestic inflation than we had
estimated last October...downside risks to Canada from slower U.S. growth in the first half of 2008 are probably greater than we had estimated.” The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was up for the first time this year, rising 0.47% to 76.15. If the Fed were to drop
their key rate by 50 basis points on January 29 (as a growing number of marketwatchers believe), it is difficult to see how the
U.S. dollar doesn’t face more selling pressure.
Friday 04 January 2008 TORONTO: WHITHER THE CANADIAN DOLLAR?
A senior Canadian economist says he expects the Canadian dollar to remain high in response to a new benchmark for global oil prices. With oil hovering around $100 (U.S.), T-D Bank's Derek Burleton expects pressure on the manufacturing and transportation sectors. The higher cost of diesel and jet fuel has also been putting the squeeze on rail, trucking and airline businesses. Mr. Burleton is also concerned the U.S. economy will turn sour as a result of the high crude prices.
2007
Thursday 13 December 2007 MONTREAL: SCOTIABANK PREDICTS ABOVE-PARITY DOLLAR
The Bank of Nova Scotia predicts that Canada's currency will continue to experience volatility in trading against the U.S. dollar but nonetheless should be mostly above parity, averaging about US$1.05. Chief economist Warren Jestin says Canada's currency is being fuelled by strong economic fundamentals and the U.S. economic woes, including a housing crisis and trade deficit. Mr. Jestin says that Canada by contrast is enjoying strong government infrastructure spending, net employment gains due to the services and energy sectors and a prosperous housing market. The economist predicts growth of under two per cent but still higher than that of the U.S. The western provinces will lead the country's growth for at least the next five years. And the expansion of emerging world economies like India's and China's will continue to keep Canada an attractive trading partner because of its plentiful oil reserves and commodities.
Tuesday Dec 11, 2007 Hot dollar sparked bank's rate cut
A loonie in the mid-to-upper 90-cents (U.S.) range is more in keeping with historical norms and Canada's terms of trade ...
A loonie in the mid-to-upper 90-cents (U.S.) range is more in keeping with historical norms and Canada's terms of trade than the recent record high of $1.10 U.S., which required some offsetting tweaking of monetary policy, David Dodge, governor of the Bank of Canada, said yesterday.
Sunday 09 December 2007 OTTAWA: CANADIANS FLOCKING OVER BORDER IN DROVES TO SHOP
A Canadian Press-Harris/Decima poll indicates that Canadians are flooding over the U.S. border to shop. The survey says that 17 per cent of the one-thousand Canadian residents asked did cross-border shopping in October and November, spending an average of $616 each. Among households with incomes of $80,000 or more, one in three said they had shopped in the U.S. Ten per cent of respondents said they were likely to return before Christmas. The pollster explains the phenomenon by the high Canadian dollar and the strong domestic economy.
Friday 07 December 2007 OTTAWA: CENTRAL BANKER HINTS DOLLAR MAY BE AT RIGHT LEVEL
Outgoing Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge says the Canadian dollar may now have reached its appropriate level in trading against its U.S. counterpart. Mr. Dodge told the Senate finance committee that the violent fluctuations of the Canadian currency in the past several weeks are largely inexplicable but that a loonie close to parity is justified by the improvement in "our terms of trade against the U.S." The Canadian dollar has gone from parity to US$1.10 and then below parity in a two-week period. Mr. Dodge told the senators that he was right to refuse to cut interest rates because such a reduction wouldn't have helped the manufacturing sector and would have caused inflation. He also says he agrees with testimony by his successor, Mark Carney, on Wednesday before the House of Commons finance committee that it would be a mistake to peg Canada's dollar to the U.S. currency or to enter into a currency union. Mr. Dodge leaves his position at the end of January.
Friday 07 December 2007 Dollar back in line with reality, Dodge says
Governor says decline from recent record spike values loonie closer to Bank of Canada's 98 cent (U.S.) forecast
Thursday 06 December 2007 OTTAWA: CENTRAL BANKER ADVISES AGAINST DOLLAR PEG
The governor-designate of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, says it would be a bad idea to peg the value of the Canadian dollar to the U.S. currency or to form a currency union. He told the House of Commons finance committee that he understands the attraction of the idea and that many would like exchange rate certainty to protect sectors like manufacturers. But Mr. Carney says the price would be too high because it would be tantamount to Canada's adopting U.S. monetary policies even though the two economies are very different. The governor-designate says he realizes that the recent volatility of the Canadian currency has been difficult for manufacturers and exporters but the central bank shouldn't intervene except to control inflation.
Tuesday 20 November 2007 KLEINMOND: IMF FINDS CANADIAN DOLLAR PART OF GLOBAL CURRENCY CRISIS
The director of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, has expressed concern that some currencies, including Canada's, are bearing too much weight in a global currency crisis. The crisis is partly explained by a large national deficit in the United States, whose currency has weakened this year. In contrast, emerging economies, especially China's, are seeing huge surpluses. Speaking at a meeting of the Group of 20 in Kleinmond, South Africa, Mr. Strauss-Kahn said that the world's monetary system is not in line with expectations.
Tuesday Nov 20, 2007 Bailout for ailing industry
Aid for manufacturers. Charest to help sector hit hard by soaring loonie, energy costs
Quebec's ailing manufacturing sector will get an aid plan this week from the Quebec government, Premier Jean Charest pledged yesterday.
Tuesday Nov 13, 2007 How do we clip the wings of the soaring loonie?
The high dollar is like the weather. Everybody complains about it but no one does anything about it. Now, it seems, the premiers of Quebec and Ontario are going to do something. They're going to complain. To the federal government, which is where they complain best.
The Canadian dollar's tumble is overdue
Is the party over for the loonie? At the very least, yesterday's enormous drop in the dollar made it clear that it is being...
In the middle of last week, the loonie rose to just over $1.10 U.S, a record high, but it's been all downhill since then. Yesterday, the slide accelerated, with the currency tumbling 21/2 cents to just over $1.03, its biggest daily loss in more than 35 years of records.
Weaker oil, gold bring a retreat
The Canadian dollar, hit by a slide in oil and gold prices and domestic political and economic concerns, suffered its steepest...
Wednesday 07 November 2007 Canadian Dollar (FXCAU : US$1.0850), Net Change: 0.0136, % Change: 1.27%
“Sometimes when it’s too hot, I just sleep in my underwear. If it’s colder, I sleep in pyjamas. I don’t like to feel closed in. I
like no pillows. I like very fluffy beds. I sleep on my stomach and sometimes on my side, but never on my back. Now, if I have
my boyfriend with me, I kick him out of bed, because I move around a lot. I’m the worst person. I steal blankets.” – Forex
trader Gisele Bundchen. The Loonie reached a modern-day record against the U.S. dollar, hitting a high of US$1.0852 yesterday
(and above US$1.09 in after-hours). The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) touched a low of 75.985 points, inspiring gold and oil to
march to a 27-year high and record-high, respectively. The question we are wondering is when will a pullback happen? It has
been such a one-sided move and, as bullish as we have been for the Loonie, we are sceptical when a supermodel’s
sister/manager makes noise about wanting to have her client earn her tens of millions in any currency but the U.S. dollar.
Yesterday, after criticism, the model clarified that it doesn’t really matter. Glad she came to her senses, as the average model
earns less than $11 per hour. Many folks are citing the purchasing power parity mismatch and it is difficult to argue. Mitigating
the glaring imbalance is the simple fact that many Canadian retailers have been taking advantage of the currency move by being
very slow to reduce pricing on Canadian shelves. For example, one can’t point to books and say, “Look, purchasing power
parity is totally out of whack!” But this greed should continue to diminish as more and more consumers complain or revert to
shopping over the boarder. Perhaps it’s time the Loonie slept in its underwear for a while?
Sunday 04 November 2007 TORONTO: DOLLAR SETS RECORD
The Canadian dollar jumped up almost two full cents on Friday, closing at US$107.04, an historic high. The latest bound upwards was apparently triggered by extremely unexpected employment statistics. The national unemployment rate fell to a new 33-year low of 5.8 per cent compared with 5.9 per cent in September and 63,000 new jobs were created, five times more than economists had predicted. The Canadian dollar has risen by nearly nine cents in the past six weeks. The rise is due chiefly to high world prices for oil and other commodities, a strong domestic economy and a weak U.S. dollar.
Saturday Nov 3, 2007 New heights Loonie soars to a modern day high on employment growth The Canadian dollar soared to a modern day high on Friday, rising above 1.07 US, after a government ...
Thursday 01 November 2007
Canadian Dollar (FXCAU : US$1.0597), Net Change: 0.0103, % Change: 0.98%
The first Japanese immigrant was officially allowed into Canada, the University of Manitoba was founded, Group of Seven
artist Tom Thomson was born. The Fed helped push the Loonie to a 130-year high after cutting key rates by a quarter point. A
high of US$1.0617 was touched on. It didn’t hurt that oil traded through $95 in after-hours trading nor did it hurt that gold
topped $800 for the first time since the National Energy Program was introduced, Terry Fox began his Marathon of Hope and
Gordie Howe retired (the year was 1980, for those who slept through history class). But the Fed did signal that it may well
pause next time, citing inflationary pressures. But this was not enough to rally the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which fell to
76.55 (down 0.22) at the time of this writing. The Greenback is in freefall. Care to catch that falling knife? But come on, how
high can the Loonie get?
Thursday 01 November 2007 Canadian Dollar (FXCAU : US$1.0597), Net Change: 0.0103, % Change: 0.98%
The first Japanese immigrant was officially allowed into Canada, the University of Manitoba was founded, Group of Seven
artist Tom Thomson was born. The Fed helped push the Loonie to a 130-year high after cutting key rates by a quarter point. A
high of US$1.0617 was touched on. It didn’t hurt that oil traded through $95 in after-hours trading nor did it hurt that gold
topped $800 for the first time since the National Energy Program was introduced, Terry Fox began his Marathon of Hope and
Gordie Howe retired (the year was 1980, for those who slept through history class). But the Fed did signal that it may well
pause next time, citing inflationary pressures. But this was not enough to rally the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which fell to
76.55 (down 0.22) at the time of this writing. The Greenback is in freefall. Care to catch that falling knife? But come on, how
high can the Loonie get?
Tuesday 30 October 2007 
Loonie pushes modern record
The Canadian dollar rocketed past $1.05 (U.S.) yesterday in a buying frenzy fuelled by soaring commodity prices, prompting currency strategists to predict the once derided "northern peso" could hit its modern-day high of $1.0614 by the end of this week.
Canada Post swamped by Internet shoppers
Surge in Internet cross-border shopping by Canadians trying to cash in on the soaring loonie creates headaches for consumers, border agents and Canada Post
...There are reports of parcels from the United States languishing for days and even weeks at the centres before being released for delivery.
Monday 29 October 2007 Canadian Dollar (FXCAU : US$1.0392), Net Change: 0.0048, % Change: 0.46%
Not since everybody was uh kung fu fighting to Annie’s Song, and somebody was having Paul Anka’s baby. The Loonie got
close to its 1974 high of US$1.0412, as crude oil moved above US$92 per barrel and investors looked forward to another rate
cut by the Federal Reserve. The majority now believe the Fed will have to move by 50 basis points while most of the rest
believe 25 basis points is enough. As worried as David Dodge is for Canadian exporters, nobody expects him to drop interest
rates when inflationary pressures are clearly present in commodities. Moreover, the Bank of Canada might not admit it when it
comes to speeches, but trying to counter this trade would be futile. The U.S. dollar is down against all of the 16 most-traded
currencies in the world. Speculation of the Fed dropping rates has prompted the spread between the Canadian and U.S. 10-year
government bonds to fall to a mere seven basis points. International investors figure that if the U.S. appears to have more
downside, why not get the nearly equivalent yield denominated in Canadian dollars and not U.S.? There is nothing more
infuriating than having your investment gains nullified due to a drop in the currency’s asset.
Monday 29 October 2007 RBC Compass - Canadian Dollar Could Prompt Cross Border Shopping Spree
As a result of the appreciation of the Canadian dollar, Canadian trucking trusts are faced with a unique opportunity to expand into the U.S. Approaches to executing U.S. acquisition strategies are likely to vary due to the associated risks such as new competitors, unfamiliar industry and legislative dynamics, as well as new customers. Recent debt restructuring and announcements regarding future asset sales seem to be tactical moves on behalf of TransForce to generate capital in order to finance future acquisitions. Management indicated that any U.S. transactions would likely be larger in scale, with the intent of securing national reach and density all at once. Debt levels and ability to raise equity may be possible constraints. ATS management indicated that it is in the process of conducting the necessary legal and insurance due diligence that would pave the way for strategic U.S. plays. Regionally, ATS would focus on the Chicago, Seattle and Los Angeles areas, where its sister company, Concord Transportation, already has market share and reach. Consistent with Contrans' preference to be debt-averse, the company indicated that it would have to be faced with a "slam-dunk" opportunity in cross-border transportation in order to make an acquisition in the U.S. Trimac Income Fund's structure is such that the Fund cannot have any operations in direct competition with the privately owned Trimac Transportation Inc., which is based in the U.S. As a result, US acquisitions can only be made by the private entity.
Saturday 27 October 2007 OTTAWA: LOONIE ASCENT CONTINUES
The Canadian dollar rose briefly to US$1.04 on Friday, its highest rate in trading against its U.S. counterpart in 33 years. The Canadian currency closed at US$103.93. The loonie is nearing its historic high of $US106.14, reached more than 50 years ago. The value of the loonie is being driven by higher Canadian interest rates, Canada's blazing energy sector and takeovers of Canadian firms which require the acquisition of Canadian dollars. Last weekend, Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge warned that the Canadian dollar's ascent has been too rapid and wasn't supported by "fundamentals." The dollar then dropped a cent-and-a-half on Monday but regained the lost ground on Tuesday.
Saturday 27 October 2007 Sellers defend cost divide
With the Canadian dollar worth more than the U.S. greenback, why does a ski jacket that retails for $360 (U.S.) south of the border sell for $490 (Canadian) in Toronto?
...The Retail Council of Canada shot back, saying suppliers should bear some of the blame.
But some retailers and suppliers say factors beyond their control, such as import duties, cause prices to be higher here and these have been lost in the nation-wide debate.
Consumers have power over prices
Last year, when the Canadian dollar was worth 86 cents (U.S.), a consumer product, such as a pair of shoes or pants, with a $100 price tag in an American store in Buffalo or Niagara Falls, N.Y., should have sold for close to $116 in a Canadian store in the Greater Toronto Area. And in many cases, the price in Canada was a lot more than $116.
Wednesday 24 October 2007 Canadian Dollar (FXCAU : US$1.0354), Net Change: 0.0134, % Change: 1.31%
Psyche! The way the Loonie bounced yesterday illustrates just how futile it can be when a financial figure tries to talk a
currency down (as David Dodge did). In early trading, all of the previous day’s loss was made up, despite the fact that oil prices
closed down on the day (no, it isn’t merely a petro-currency). Our tag line yesterday was “Dodge vs. Buffett”, as Buffett made bullish comments in Toronto last week. Yesterday morning, after about 40 minutes into the trading day, Buffett was speaking to
CNBC from a cell phone. When he was asked, “You ducked the question last time so I’ll ask you again: What’s the best
currency to own?” Buffett answered, “Not the U.S. dollar. That’s as far as I’ll go.” Remember, the man is not a short-term
trader. Dennis Gartman argues that it is not in the nature of the Bank of Canada to manage the Loonie. The Bank is not likely to
ignore inflation pressures by dropping rates to bring down the dollar.
Tuesday 23 October 2007 Canadian Dollar (FXCAU : US1.0205), Net Change: -0.014, % Change: -1.35%
Dodge vs. Buffett. Canada’s David Dodge attempted to jaw-bone the soaring Loonie lower, and it worked. Speaking to a
conference in Washington, Dodge said, “The recent round of appreciation has been abnormally quick and doesn’t seem to be
related to the domestic factors which would normally lead to that sort of rapid appreciation.” He added, “Our terms of trade
have improved a little bit over the past three months but not a lot that would give that much impetus to things.” The fact that the
move is abnormal is self-evident. But clearly Dodge intended to talk down the bird because he knows full well that the shortterm
move was caused by the Fed’s dramatic rate drops and otherwise credit excesses in America. The Loonie is up over the
U.S. dollar, yes, but so is just about every other currency. In the short-term, traders are capable of sending currencies in
directions that are not related to trade fundamentals. But this notion that the Loonie doesn’t belong at par strikes us as a good
example of what behavioural finance refers to as “anchoring bias”. We are comparing today’s to an arbitrary historic figure,
such as US$0.85, and concluding it is “too high”. Last week, Warren Buffett told a Toronto charity dinner that he is positive on
the Loonie and bets it will be even higher five years from now.
Tuesday 16 October 2007 Canadian Dollar (FXCAU : US$1.024), Net Change: -0.0045, % Change: -0.0044%
The Common Loon cruses at altitudes between 1,500m and 2,700m above sea level. Perhaps we’re at 2,200 metres right
now? The Loonie has held strong these past few days after hitting a 31-year high, waiting for the results of today’s Bank of
Canada meeting. The Bank is expected to keep its benchmark lending rate at 4.5%, according to all two-dozen economists
surveyed by Bloomberg. The Bank remained on hold at their September 5 meeting, worried that the U.S. slowdown may hurt
Canadian exports. Yesterday, Canada’s index of leading economic indicators rose 0.4% in September, thanks to strong
consumer demand. This exceeded economists’ average forecast of 0.3%. Stats Can said, “Household demand remained the
driving force behind growth.” It would be reasonable to expect a healthy retracement if the Bank holds as expected.
Tuesday Oct 16, 2007 Canada seen outperforming U.S.
Canada has become more the master of its own economic domain than at any time in the past half century, according to a major...
Can dollar and economy both stay strong?
For a lot of us, it still feels a little unreal to think that our once-lowly loonie is now worth more than the mighty U....
Monday 15 October 2007 TORONTO: BUFFETT PREDICTS SUSTAINED STRONG LOONIE
The American billionaire investor, Warren Buffett, predicts a bright future for Canada's soaring currency. In the past few weeks, the Canadian dollar known as the loonie reached parity with the U.S. dollar for the first time in almost three decades. Speaking in Toronto on Thursday, Mr. Buffett said that he expected the loonie to rise further against the U.S. dollar, remaining at least at parity for the next five years. The loonie has risen by 20 per cent this year, partly because of a weakening U.S. dollar. Mr. Buffett expressed great concern that Brazil was buying U.S. government securities to support the U.S. dollar, noting that Brazil's currency has suffered dramatic setbacks several times in the past century. Mr. Buffett is the second-richest man in the United States. His comments and recommendations are highly influential among many investors.
 Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Is loonie strength due merely to eagle weakness? - October 10, 2007
With the Canadian loonie flying alongside the American eagle, it is easy to forget that just 200 days ago the former was cruising 15 cents below the latter. How, exactly, did we get here?
There is certainly no shortage of explanations for the strong Canadian dollar. We are reminded that Canada has a trade surplus, a fiscal surplus, a strong consumer, high commodity prices, and incipient inflation pressures that point to the possibility of higher interest rates. All of these, and other factors, may play a role at one time or another in boosting the Canadian dollar. Past issues | his WN page
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Tuesday 02 October 2007
Canadian dollar ends lower but holds above parity
October 02, 2007 04:44 PM ET
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TORONTO, Oct 2 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar closed lower versus
the U.S. currency on Tuesday, but it managed to stay above parity
even though lower commodity prices convinced investors to take
profits after some sharp gains.
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