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Cato Studies on U.S. Economy
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2003
Thursday 10 January 2008  Op-Ed: Getting It Wrong
Gender and age patterns tend not to be as confounding to pollsters as race, which was a key reason the polls got New Hampshire so wrong.
Jul 1, 2003 The Euro: Range-Bound
The euro is working off its overbought condition.
The recent drop in the euro should soon stabilize, which has been the typical pattern in its current bull market. As the chart shows, the currency has gone through periods of range-trading during its cyclical uptrend, as money managers and traders temporarily retreated. Just when it seems like the bull trend in the euro has come to an end, the currency catapults higher, catching most off guard. These breakout rallies have been violent, as money managers and corporations are forced to hedge their exposures to U.S. assets/receivables at euro levels that they never imagined possible only 18 months ago. Importantly, the ECB is not yet alarmed by the euro rise, implying that it may take a higher exchange rate before interest rates are cut again.
Thursday Jul 3, 2003 LIBERIA
The U.S. secretary of state, Colin Powell, says the U.S. government will decide later this week how to respond to a request by the United Nations to send peacekeeping troops to the wartorn western African nation of Liberia. Mr. Powell says President George W. Bush is examining his options but hasn't made a decision. Earlier Wednesday, Mr. Bush said his secretary of state will work with the UN to find ways to keep the fragile ceasefire in Liberia in force. The president also said Liberia's president, Charles Taylor, must leave Liberia in the interest of the Liberian people. Two Liberian rebel groups are trying to overthrow Mr. Taylor's government. A peace agreement was reached between them and Mr. Taylor in negotiations in Ghana that ended on June 17. It called for a ceasefire, a transitional government and the president's departure. But Mr. Taylor last week made statements indicating he would not leave power voluntarily. In Sierra Leone, meanwhile, United Nations diplomats have said that a UN-backed war tribunal won't drop its indictment of the Liberian leader. It accuses Mr. Taylor of trading diamonds with rebels there in exchange for weapons.
Thursday Jun 19, 2003 cc
 Son's book marks execution of the Rosenbergs
Convicted of espionage: 'I doubt I fully comprehended my parents had been killed'
Mon Jun 09 2003 Still No Debt Stress In The U.S.
Bank loan delinquency rates edged lower in the U.S. in the first quarter, confirming that debt burdens remain manageable.
There have been persistent concerns in recent years about excessive consumer and business debt. We have argued that worries about consumer debt were overstated, and the trend in loan delinquency rates supports our view. Delinquency rates are low and falling for mortgages, and cresting for other consumer loans, a remarkable performance given the weakness in the labor market. Even business loan delinquency rates are rolling over and are lower than the levels of the early 1990s’ recession. Rising interest rates could cause problems for those with large debt burdens, but that will not occur until after the economy is on a sound footing. Debt will not sink the U.S. economy.
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Europe and US in new trade row
Brussels takes the US to the World Trade Organisation once again, adding to existing cases on steel, GM foods and export credits. |
Monday Jun 9, 2003 nyt
It Couldn't Be Verse
By MAUREEN DOWD
The Democrats are trying hard to show they can be even more aggressive in fighting terrorism than the cowboy in chief and his posse.
Tue Jun 03, 2003 bca A U.S. Bond Bubble?
The extreme overbought condition in global bond markets is concentrated in the U.S.
Global government bond markets are generally lagging the U.S. rally, even though reflationary stimulus is most intense in the U.S. One way of seeing this distortion is by comparing current bond yield spreads with the fair value spreads as measured by our bond models. The last column in the table shows the difference between current spreads and the fair value spread. Only the Canadian market has kept pace with the U.S. rally, from this perspective. European bond yields should be 40 bp below Treasurys but are about 35 bp higher (as at today). Bottom line: the rally in U.S. bonds is a growing distortion that should be unwound when U.S. economic expectations rebound.
Thu Jun 05, 2003 The U.S. Dollar Is Still Too High For The Trade Account
The dollar is oversold and due for a bounce. However, further weakness looms over the next few years.
The dollar has recently fallen significantly against the euro and several other major currencies. Technical indicators point to a near-term dollar rise, but this would just be a pause in the bear market. As discussed in a Special Feature in the latest monthly Bank Credit Analyst publication, the U.S. trade deficit is testing the bounds of sustainability. Given weak overseas demand, the dollar must bear the burden of adjustment. One of the problems is that the areas with the biggest trade imbalances with the U.S. have the weakest currencies. Thus, for instance, China must eventually revalue the RMB.
Wed Apr 23, 2003 bca U.S. Consumer Inflation: Maybe Not So Benign
U.S. inflation should soon stop falling and may creep up next year if real GDP growth rebounds above a 3% rate.
Core CPI has declined in the past year, although the bulk of the drop has been in the shelter component. This measure does not always move in sync with the housing market, and has diverged significantly from the strength in home prices in the past year (partly because rents are under pressure due to the stampede to own a house). Inflation in non-shelter services is undergoing a mild upturn, which warns that there is not as much slack in the economy as is widely believed (capacity utilization figures measure mostly the goods sector, not services). Even the deflation in goods prices appears to be leveling out, under the influence of rising producer and import prices (the latter is being boosted by dollar weakness).
no date 2003 ny times
THE WAY WE LIVE NOW
Bomb such a literate piece of writing and so true. DTN
By CHARLES MCGRATH ll war, all the time. In the beginning, at least, the invasion of Iraq promised some of the drama and spectacle of a made-for-TV event, and as the ''crawl'' at the bottom of our screens counted down the hours to the expiration of the president's deadline, some of us whose attention spans have been deformed, perhaps, from watching too much sports on television even experienced a certain amount of impatience and anticipation. Game on! Drop the puck!
no date 2003 moscow times
 Global Eye -- Blood on the Tracks
....There was, of course, no open bidding allowed in the process; just a few "selected" companies -- selected for their preponderance of campaign bribes to the Bushist Party, that is -- "invited" to submit their wish lists to the War Profiteer-in-Chief.
Faux Pas de Deux
New or updated on the Global
Agenda
March 28th 2003
Iraq
As more bombs fall on
Baghdad and more coalition troops pour into Iraq, military commanders are
left with some hard choices
Full
article
The battle for
Baghdad
Will Baghdad be the backdrop for the mother of all
battles?
Full
article
The UN and
Iraq
At his summit with George Bush, Tony Blair urged a greater role
for the United Nations in Iraq once the war is over. But even the
multilateralist Colin Powell has insisted America will remain in control
of Iraq’s post-war political structures
Full
article
World
trade
It now looks as if a key deadline in the Doha round of world trade
negotiations will be missed. As ever, agriculture is the sticking point,
but now it threatens to wreck the talks altogether
Full
article
American economic
policy
The Senate has delivered a snub to President George Bush by voting
to halve his planned tax cut in a surprise vote. Even as American troops
are fighting in Iraq it looks as if the president’s domestic agenda may be
in trouble
Full
article
Hedge
funds
The Securities and Exchange Commission is taking a “long, hard
look” at hedge funds. Much stricter regulation may not be far
away
Full
article
Thursday Mar 27, 2003 ec
American economic policy
The Senate has delivered a snub to President George Bush by voting to halve his planned tax cut in a surprise vote. Even as American troops are fighting in Iraq it looks as if the president’s domestic agenda may be in trouble
Monday Mar 24, 2003 nyt
BUSH SEEKING AT LEAST $75 BILLION TO PAY FOR FIRST MONTH OF IRAQ WAR
An anxious White House is trying to change expectations for an easy and
quick war, just as President George W. Bush made his first formal
request to the Congress for the funds to fight it.
Monday Mar 24, 2003 OTTAWA: IRAQI DIPLOMAT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA FOR NOW
Canada will not immediately comply with a US request to expel Iraq's
sole diplomat in Ottawa. A foreign affairs department spokesman said
Sunday the department saw no reason to change Iraq's current status
in Canada. Spokesman Sameer Ahmed said Ottawa and Washington are
currently in consultation on issues involving Iraq. Last week, the
United States asked all countries to cut relations with Iraq. On
Friday, the US embassy in Ottawa asked Canada to expel Iraqi charge
d'affaires Momdouh Mustafa. Foreign Affairs Minister Bill Graham said
Friday that an Iraqi diplomat had already been expelled from Canada
in December.
Saturday Mar 22, 2003 cbc
REDUCE TAX CUTS TO PAY FOR WAR: U.S. SENATE
The U.S. Senate wants to reduce proposed tax cuts by $100 billion over
10 years to pay for the Iraq war.
Sunday Mar 23, 2003  Lewinsky to present dating show
Lewinsky has been designing handbags
Former White House intern Monica Lewinsky, who caused a scandal over her affair with then US president Bill Clinton, is to present a TV game show.
Lewinsky has been lined by US network Fox to front dating show Mr Personality.
Saturday Mar 22, 2003 cbc
MARKETING AND WAR DON'T MIX
The U.S. war in Iraq has had an impact in the advertising and consumer
worlds. Telephone giant AT&T has stopped all telemarketing because of
the war, laying off 450 people at its call centre in New Brunswick.
Subject: Fw: Bush Family Values and some facts
Date: Thu, 20 Mar 200
From: RWJR
THOUGHT YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN READING SOME TRUE FACTS ABOUT THIS FAMILY AND ALL THE SKELETONS IN THE CLOSET....ALL DOCUMENTED FACTS.
Friday Mar 14, 2003 ts COALITION HAS 30 MEMBERS: POWELL
The United States says it has 30 countries included in its "coalition of
the willing" to use military force to topple Saddam Hussein from power
in Iraq.
Friday Mar 14, 2003 ts Bush may not force another vote at U.N.
U.S. hits diplomatic impasse over
Friday Mar 14, 2003 ts U.S. retail sales plunge in February
`It's somewhere between a bad and dismal report' New jobless claims suggest stagnant labour market
Friday Mar 14, 2003 nyt  U.S. May Abandon U.N. Vote on Iraq, Powell Testifies Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said today that the United States might choose to abandon a second United Nations resolution authorizing military action against Iraq, only a week after President Bush vowed to force countries to take sides on the issue
Friday, March 7, 2003; wp In Talk of War, Cost Is Avoided
Cost Estimates Vary, but Administration Saying LIttle By Terry M. Neal
Saturday, March 8, 2003 by the Toronto Star ts
GI Joes Replace Easter Bunnies in U.S. Stores
Sale of combat toys up: Retailers
Church leaders slam jingoism
by Erik Baard thanks to Sabra Ledent
Friday Mar 7, 2003 nyt
Let Them Hate as Long as They Fear
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Friday Mar 7, 2003 bbc
 Martin Sheen: 'President' under fire
His portrayal of US President Jed Bartlet in NBC's The West Wing, has made Martin Sheen one of America's most respected actors. But, in real life, he says his high-profile anti-war stance has resulted in hate-mail and calls for him to be sacked from his television role
Saturday Mar 1, 2003 ts
Lawyer predicts `havoc' at U.S. border
Many landed immigrants will soon need visas `I don't think people have a clue what they're in for'
Saturday Mar 1, 2003 see Sep 11 New York
A design has been chosen to rebuild New York City's so-called Ground
Zero where the two towers of the World Trade Centre once stood.
Architect Daniel Libeskind's design was selected over six others that
were short-listed late last year. His design features a memorial
walkway, a museum, an office building and a tower which will be the
world's tallest. The twin towers of the World Trade Centre were
destroyed when hijackers purposely crashed a passenger aircraft into
each of the buildings on September 11, 2001.
| | | | Friday Feb 21, 2003 | |  | US 'ready for Iraq war'
The US defence secretary says enough forces are in place to attack Iraq, as Turkey hints that it will let the US use its bases.
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1954 US tests massive hydrogen bomb in Bikini
The biggest explosion ever made by man is witnessed in the Pacific when US scientists explode their second H-bomb at Bikini Atoll. |
Tuesday February 25, 2003 
The Saddam and George show
Ignoring the fact that George Bush declined Saddam Hussein's challenge to a televised debate, Tim Dowling exclusively reveals what could have happened had they met
Tuesday February 25, 2003 Diana's nyt picks:
On the subject of Bush appointees to the judiciary – scary!
And my favorite columnist strikes again!
Good piece on previous presidents and containment
And this by Paul Krugman
February 19, 2003 nyt Tell the Truth
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
The Bush team should dispense with the attitude and tell the
truth - that the war against Iraq is a war of choice, but
it's a legitimate choice.
Sunday Feb 16, 2003 abc
The cost of war....Saddam Hussein immediately and successfully destroys the Iraqi oil production facilities and oil fields. This would mean that even if Bush wins the war, the cost could shoot up further from a high of $500 to an incredible $1,595 billion.
Sunday Feb 16, 2003 nyt The Price We Pay
By GORDON ADAMS and STEVE KOSIAK
War in Iraq will not come cheap — and neither will peace.
VIDEO
 Report to Security Council
Hans Blix said no weapons of mass destruction had been found in Iraq.
• Remarks by ElBaradei | Powell
• British Foreign Minister
Sunday Feb 16, 2003 nyt If, and When: War's Timing
By PATRICK E. TYLER
The question of whether war should replace U.N. inspections as the primary instrument to disarm Saddam Hussein became one of timing.
Sunday Feb 16, 2003 rci MONTREAL: CANADA URGES U.S. TO GIVE UN MORE TIME
Canada's foreign minister, Bill Graham, says he has confidence that
the United States will give the world body more time to solve the
crisis over Iraq. Mr. Graham was reacting to the report at the UN
earlier by its two top weapons inspectors. The foreign minister says
it's clear that no country is now ready to take military action
against Iraq. However, he added that time is growing short for the
government of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to comply with UN
disarmament resolution 1441. In Ottawa, the deputy prime minister,
John Manley, told the House of Commons that it will take some days to
decide whether the report by the top UN weapons inspector, Hans Blix,
justifies the use of force. Stephen Harper, the leader of the
opposition Canadian Alliance party, responded that Mr. Manley is
equivocating, because of splits regarding Iraq within the government.
Mr. Manley denies it, saying the government wants to get its facts
straight before making any decision.
Friday Feb 14, 2003 ec  The American economy More discipline needed
The Bush administration has gone on the offensive to counter suggestions from the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, that its fiscal stimulus package might be premature. Mr Greenspan also warned of the need for budget discipline
Friday Feb 14, 2003 ec Emerging markets Riding for a fall
Emerging economies and those who invest in them have so far been fairly sanguine about the possible effects of a war in Iraq. This may be too optimistic
ec chart
Wednesday Jan 29, 2003
In a pivotal speech, the President targets Saddam Hussein and unveils a historic 'work of mercy': $15-billion (U.S.) to fight AIDS in Africa
AIDS pledge just a first step, Stephen Lewis says
Bush makes renewed pitch for tax cuts
Text of the address
2:01 AM | FULL STORY 
Wednesday Jan 29, 2003 globe
U.S. expected to attack Iraq within weeks
Ground forces would have to enter before intense heat begins in April, experts say, predicting an attack shortly after Feb. 14
One of the bright Lights
News Links below will open a new window .. Please close to Return
L'Album 1905
 VOA news
David & Diana
I wonder if you've seen this White House web-site dealing with National
Security Emergencies?
www.whitehouse.gov/
To what extent does it [i.e. the warnings] apply to Canada?
At one point they say:
"...Assemble and maintain a disaster supply kit with food, water, medications,
fuel and personal items adequate for up to 2 weeks—the more the better.
(See the “Emergency Planning and Disaster Supplies” chapter for more
information). "
Is this necessary? Scare-mongering? Merely prudent?
Friday Jan 31, 2003 wp
U.S. Facing Bigger Bill For Iraq War
Total Cost Could Run As High as $200 Billion
Friday Jan 31, 2003 cbc
 U.S. ECONOMY GROWS BY MEAGRE 0.7% IN FOURTH QUARTER
The American economy grew at a sluggish annual rate of 0.7 per cent in
the final three months of last year, the U.S. Commerce Department
reported Thursday.
Thursday Jan 23, 2003 ec
America’s economy
New data show housing starts in America surged to their highest level for 16 years last month. But most recent figures suggest the country's economic recovery is still uncomfortably weak. With Europe and Japan in even worse shape, a sustained global upturn still seems elusive
Sun, 19 Jan 2003 cbc
TREAT PRISONERS IN CUBA AS POWS, U.S. URGED
The International Red Cross is once again calling on the United States
to either prosecute or free hundreds of people who've been held without
charges at a remote naval base for the past year.
Sun, 19 Jan 2003 cbc
 ANTI-WAR PROTESTS HELD AROUND THE GLOBE
Thousands of people braved freezing temperatures Saturday to attend
rallies held in a number of Canadian cities to show their opposition to
a possible war in Iraq.
Sunday Jan 19, 2003 nyt
Bush Aide Sees Deficit in 2003 of $200 Billion
The ballooning deficits, the largest ever in dollar terms, could put President Bush's tax plan in peril.
Friday Jan 17, 2003 ec
Bush Enters the Fray Over Malpractice
President Bush is making a renewed push for strict limits on the jury awards he blames for skyrocketing premiums.
The Malpractice Insurance Crisis
Friday Jan 17, 2003 ec
America’s economy
America’s economic recovery remains uncomfortably weak. The latest data show industrial production falling while the trade deficit soars to record levels. With Europe and Japan in even worse shape, a sustained global upturn still seems elusive
bca chart ID & CPI
Friday Jan 17, 2003 ec
Retailing
The hottest items on the shelves at the moment are retailers themselves. But experience shows that supermarket mergers are tough to pull off and shareholders usually end up worse off
Wednesday Jan 8, 2003 ec America’s stimulus package
President George Bush’s new economic stimulus package is bigger and bolder than previously expected. But will it work? And will it help Mr Bush’s re-election prospects?
Monday Jan 6, 2003 nyt The unemployment rate is expected to remain at six percent, though payrolls are projected to rise, which could help the bond markets.
Sunday Jan 5, 2003 found by David Mitchell
Physicist blows whistle on US missile defence
From Roland Watson in Washington
THE credibility of President Bush's multibillion-dollar
missile defence plans are being questioned by leading
scientists after claims that the results of key tests were
falsified. ...
news WTO
Whats on New York
Sports & Olympic Statistics
U. S. Office of Government Ethics
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