Wednesday Night Sept 18, 2002 #1072

to Dr. John J. Jonas

---

What a change a week can make! War seems slightly less imminent. The price of oil has dropped faster than John Melikoff predicted. Inspectors may or may not actually get into Iraq, but at least the UN is talking. A whole cell of terrorists has been captured and the whistle was blown by fellow Muslims (VERY good guys). And Jean Chretien has morphed from the little guy who was trying to buy his legacy to a statesman who calls the shots as he sees them and has warned all the Big Guys that showing off your wealth tends to make the neighbors resentful. Isn't it amazing that trumpeting such a truism could so vastly alter one's standing? But he did it at the right time and from the right podium. We join the majority in saying Bravo!

One thing hasn't changed - John and Holly Higgins Jonas are leaving for Ghent at the end of the month. Now it is a week closer and this is the very last opportunity to wish them Bon Voyage and Bonne Annee. In John's honor, the Iraq Steel page has some new articles, including a great piece on the pros and cons of U.S. tariff barriers on this product. see also Photos | Jennifer Jonas Movies

Please join us for good conversation, good fellowship and -- depending on you -- good wine!

David and Diana

---

Read About W-N
NP story om W-N
Contact W-N & Map

Dr. John Jonas see our Steel site

Wednesday Night in Westmount #1072

Tony Deutsch said that during a recession earnings were poor, but there will be a turn up in the business cycle – the only problem is to say when.

Jacques Clément then gave his report on the US and Canadian economies.

U.S. Economy

Dr. Mark Roper

Martin Barry full scn

Mike & Ben Fox Tony Deutsch

Jacques Clément

Brian Morel

soon come full scn

Gerald Ratzer his site

Coupled with strong personal consumption (retail sales increased 2% in July-August), record auto sales, continuing rise in business inventories, a strong housing market (housing starts and permits for August to be announced tomorrow, should see renewed strength given strong existing and new home sales), stronger employment in July and August, government net spending, slightly improved corporate profits and record Fed Reserve monetary accommodation, the U.S. GDP should improve by 2.5% to 3.5% in the third quarter from 1.1% annual rate in the second quarter.

With deflation in producer prices, moderating wage settlements (2.7% in the first half of 2002) and the consumer price index (CPI) under 2% (core under 2.5%) year or year, the Fed should leave the Fed funds rate unchanged on September 24th at 1.75%. The August Federal budget will be announced Friday with a likely deficit of $50 billion for a cumulative deficit of close to $200 billion after 11 months.

The Dow Jones lost 475 points this week and the outlook remains negative, given:

• the OPEC meeting tomorrow, and the likelihood of no increase in oil quotas
• the threat of war in the Middle East with the showdown with Iraq,
• investors’ non-confidence in corporate governance
• the continuing major layoffs and corporate re-structuring in the high tech and telecommunication industries particularly
• the poor outlook for third quarter earnings. The Dow Jones is now 63 points below the September 21st, 2001 low. Expect gold to trade at its June high of $330US and oil between $28 and $31 a barrel in the days ahead.

Canada’s Economy

The Canadian dollar has weakened from its high of 64.42 U.S. cents (Sept 3rd) to 63.21 following a 3 month high of the US $ and given some weak commodity prices: metals (aluminum and copper) and forest products (newsprint, plywood lumber); given weakness in electric, electronics, telecommunications, machinery and mining sectors of the economy; the likelihood of continuing net buying of foreign securities by Canadian pension funds, adjusting to the 30% foreign limit, far exceeding the net foreign buying of Canadian securities (first half $17.7 billion against $8.6 billion). w-n cd$ chart

The budgetary deficit in July of $128 million and the decline of $6.4 billion in the fiscal surplus in the first four months of this fiscal year to $4.6 billion is also contributing to the Canadian dollar’s weakness. Canada remains the third most indebted country in the world, after Japan and Italy. The debt of the federal government stands at $546 billion, while the provincial debts are $247 billion for a total in round numbers of one trillion dollars.

The report on the state of the Canadian economy brought several comments, notably:

• Pierre Trudeau is largely to blame for the federal debt. When he took office the national debt was about $20 billion. He and his government went on a spending spree and bought lots of military hardware, including the CF18s, to the tune of $200 billion, by the time he stepped down as Prime Minister.
• Under the Mulroney watch no interest was paid on the national debt, so it doubled to $400 billion by the time he completed his term in office.
• To the credit of Michael Wilson, then Finance Minister to Mulroney, the much-hated GST was introduced. It is this tax that has collected sufficient funds to generate surpluses and start paying off the debt.
• The therapeutic drug bill of $1 billion per month is the primary cause of the national debt. The cost of drugs is now over 10% (~15%) of the healthcare cost.
• As drugs are imported there is an effect on the balance of payments. Trying to pinpoint on a line-by-line basis the cause of the debt is complicated and messy as there is a strong interaction between many variables.

Healthcare costs

On a related note, he added that home care is still preferred, whenever possible, as this only costs the system $20 - $30 a day compared with hundreds of dollars for hospital or nursing home care.

The biggest problem with the Canadian Healthcare system remains the unassailable collective agreements. A large number of healthcare employees are paid to stay at home and do nothing. If an end were put to this situation, healthcare would have the funds to deliver the service the patients are entitled to.

Today, the patients are not well represented. They have no say in the healthcare decision making process and no veto power. What is needed is a patient charter of rights and the power to see that their interests are placed first.

But a patient charter of rights is not the only key to solving the healthcare problems - increased transfers from the federal government, reduced drug costs and an end to unions and job security and all essential parts of the solution.

It appears that the new platform of the Québec Liberals will recommend removal of the regional healthcare structure and give more power to the Health Minister.

A new face – Ben Fox
Mike Fox of the BBC introduced his brother Ben who is stationed in London and is also in the family business of making films and TV videos. He first got interested when his parents gave him a 8mm movie camera. He now concentrates on religious groups and ethical and philosophical issues that are shown on BBC 1 and 2.

He was asked to comment on the influence Tony Blair has on the current situation. The verdict is that Blair does have the ear of George Bush and he is also working on Colin Powell as an additional backdoor approach.

Mike talked about his career – starting at Bush House in London, followed by a stint with NPR, before coming to Montreal. He said that the quality of life in Montreal is “fantastic” compared with the rat race in London.

Jean Chrétien’s comments on poverty and terrorism
Much controversy has been stirred up by Jean Chrétien’s comments at the United Nations that a contributing factor to terrorism is the contrast between the poverty of many nations and the lifestyle (and arrogance) of Western nations. While our good friend and faithful Wednesday-Night contributor, Sep 18, 2002 David Jones has expressed considerable outrage over these remarks, Mike Fox considers them to be on the mark. The timing, so close to September 11, was probably unfortunate, but that was when Chrétien scheduled to speak at the UN, which was the right forum for such remarks. While Brian Morel pointed out that 45,000 children have died in Iraq due to the sanctions, Beryl Wajsman thought that stressing the connection between poverty and terrorism is dangerous thinking. Chrétien has his focus on Africa, where there is huge poverty, and considerable tribal conflict (one million killed in Rwanda).

Distance Education

However, while “TV teaching” is meets certain needs and is a worthwhile option in remot Global Aviation MBA e areas , it cannot replace the “touch and feel” of having a real professor. It is the interaction and feedback between professor and students that is vitally important and makes education work. For the same reason, a library cannot of its own provide an education. Dialogue and discussion are essential to the development of critical abilities and expansion of ideas.

The Concordia MBA in Aviation has been successful, however, the new GAMBA (Global Aviation MBA) – a distance learning-based concept - is not working as well, nor achieving the aim to encourage students from many countries and cultures to share ideas and approaches and forge bonds that will help them and the entire industry in the future .

In the UK, the Open University has been successful in delivering content at a distance, there are regular meetings with a tutor in the region to supplement the canned content, and see that the student is making progress. The “Socratic Dialogue” and the small group tutorials of Oxford and Cambridge are the gold standard for education.

The Middle East and Concordia

Andrea Lavergne

---

Wed 9/11/02 9:16 AM
Hello Diana and David,
Mr. Lowey (who was at your salon [Wed1007Lowy] in the winter with his colleague) cancelled final exams to allow students to protest in Quebec. I cannot believe that he did this!! He claimed that the student body was apathetic and that they needed to be more active in protests. To me, it seems like the last thing on his agenda is education. Moreover, why has this leader come to Montreal so close to Sept. 11th
Andrea Lavergne [alavergne@heward.com]

---

Concordia has both a different history and a different mix of students compared with McGill. Feelings have been running high at Concordia and the university is in a fragile position. It was suggested that the Principal is stigmatized by his pre-war experience in central Europe, and he has not been able to leave that mindset behind him. Beryl said he had been asked to advise the Concordia Jewish students. He was recommending that they stop whining and take a stronger position on their physical security.

Order of Wednesday Night II - John and Holly Jonas

Mike Fox was then asked to put on his BCC hat and interview John. He asked about John’s Order of Quebec, Order of Canada, the Humboldt and Franke awards and what John has contributed in the area of steel. John replied that steel is important to Canada and more important as a fraction of the GDP than it is in the States. Canada has the raw materials needed and the energy to convert the ore to steel. Steel is used in bridges, roads, railways, buildings and many other applications. Steel is inexpensive at about 25 cents a pounds. Aluminum and other metals are much more expensive as they require much more electricity to be refined.

When asked why he got into metallurgy, the first part of answer was that John enjoyed playing with toys such as Mechano - the predecessor to Lego. The second reason was that he was poor at drawing! In most engineering disciplines, there was a requirement for drafting and a steady hand to draw bridges and gears, but not in metallurgy.

Mike asked what specific contributions John had made. While there were a number of patents resulting from his work, most of the improvements were incremental in nature.

Since the Second World War steel has become twice as strong and weighs less. Would a Third World War make any further changes? Steel is used in guns, tanks, and boats. There is good engineering and bad engineering, but how the engineering is used is left to the leaders and politicians.

Holly was asked about her background. She said she was five years old when she first came to Westmount. Her father, Ben Higgins, a renowned economist, held the Bronfman Chair at McGill. Her book published last fall, in Their Own Words was a good read.

Quotable quote of the evening:

• the economy depends on the sale of Viagara – but despite the drugs it has wilted!

Wednesday Night Report, 1072 Sept 18, 2002

clink for a QTVR of & A Big Night

• Mar 27th Wed1047 Birth Day | slide show | photo Album | QTVR | pan 3209x200
•           page II | slide show | photo Album | pan 9306x580 | 5419x400 | 9306x580
  
  
•  04 April 02
  Roast Peter F. Trent Auto | manual | Album 36 | pan x580 | x300 | [see slide musical show] | Big pan | not on cable

Notes by Gerald Ratzer • & Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson

Diana T. Nicholson

2002, Sept 18th. Notes for #1072

Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Loonie Loathes Uncertainty - September 18, 2002
Other weekly commentaries

Please click here to see new/updated pages since last visit

The World for Diana's Birth Day this weekend

Thursday Sep 19, 2002 Opec keeps oil output unchanged
Amid political uncertainties over Iraq, Opec decides to maintain oil production at current levels until the end of the year.

Thursday Sep 19, 2002 cbc
ECONOMY SHOWS 'REMARKABLE STRENGTH', MORE RATE HIKES COMING: DODGE The Canadian economy has shown "remarkable strength" over the past two years and is poised to continue growing despite "heightened uncertainties", Bank of Canada governor David Dodge said Wednesday.

Thursday Sep 19, 2002 cbc
DOLLAR SEEN HEADING FOR 70 CENTS US IN 2003: ECONOMIST A one-time bear on the Canadian dollar has turned bullish, saying the loonie has seen the bottom and will rebound to 70 cents US - a level it hasn't hit in almost four-and-a-half years. It's now worth a little more than 63 cents US.

Thursday Sep 19, 2002 VANCOUVER:
CENTRAL BANK PREDICTS MORE ECONOMIC GROWTH
The head of Canada's central bank, David Dodge, says the country will see continued economic growth but warns that uncertainties abroad, including war with Iraq, could still hurt the Canadian economy. The Bank of Canada governor made the comments in a speech at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver Wednesday. He noted that the domestic economy has held up well in the last two years, despite a meltdown in high-technology stocks, the corporate scandals in the United States and the terrorist attacks against New York and Washington. International financial agencies predict Canada will have the strongest economic growth among the G-7 industrialized countries this year and next. Canada's gross domestic product grew by 6.2 per cent in the first quarter of this year and 4.3 per cent in the second. Mr. Dodge says he is ready to raise interest rates to keep inflation at about two per cent a year and says Canada's record of job creation has been remarkable, with almost 400,000 new jobs since the beginning of 2002.

Thursday Sep 19, 2002 cbc
TRADE SURPLUS REBOUNDS AS EXPORTS OF FOREST PRODUCTS TO U.S. JUMP The biggest surge in exports since May 2001 helped Canada's trade surplus rebound in July to just under $4.9 billion, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday.

Thursday Sep 19, 2002 cbc
CANADA SLIPS INTO THE RED IN JULY The federal government posted a budget deficit of $128 million for the month of July.

Thursday Sep 19, 2002 ec Oil prices OPEC oil ministers meet in Japan this week to decide on pricing and production strategies for the rest of the year. They do so knowing that an invasion of Iraq could threaten Middle East oil supplies and send the oil price soaring bca chart

Sep 18, 2002 So now we are "arrogant" as well as being rich, by David Jones

From: Jonesdt@aol.com [mailto:Jonesdt@aol.com]
Sent: Wednesday, September 18, 2002
The majority may be cheering Mr Chretien, but as always there is a minority report. If you can get Wednesday's Ottawa Citizen, I am told that they will run an op-ed piece that I have written on Mr Chretien's latest comments both in the 11 Sep documentary and at the UN.
Regards, David [Jones]

From: Frank Kinnelly [mailto:kinnelly@localnet.com]
Sent: Wednesday, September 18, 2002
Dear David and Diana,

It is a welcome sight, to see the inspectors gearing up to return to Iraq, but I'm still filled with foreboding. As Amb. Holbrooke pointed out on the Charley Rose program last night, the White House has changed its tactics by going to Congress and to the UN, but not its objective of regime change. When we press for a Security Council resolution calling upon Iraq to disarm and authorizing whatever force is necessary to enforce this demand, we will run into veto threats by France and Russia. What do we do then? Walk away saying that we knew it all along, that the UN was no better than the League? Where does that leave US involvement with the world community? We can already see what an anti-US plank can do in the German election campaign. And for the US? Do we walk down the road toward a preemptive attack, with only UK support? Fortunately, the inspectors already have the Security Council authorization they need to do their work, and that work as it proceeds may calm things down.

We'd love to return for a Wednesday night. We're still pressing ahead on our house addition project. All the subcontractors have left, so we're now left to our own devices. Yolanda is just completing the decoration of the wine cellar. When it's finished, you must return for a visit!

Regards, Frank [Kinnelly]

Wednesday Sep 18, 2002 cbc
CANADA SLIPS INTO THE RED IN JULY The federal government posted a budget deficit of $128 million for the month of July.

Wednesday Sep 18, 2002 cbc
QUEBEC HOSPITALS GET PASSING GRADE Most Quebecers are satisfied with provincial hospital services, according to a new report.

Thursday Sep 19, 2002 Opec keeps oil output unchanged
Amid political uncertainties over Iraq, Opec decides to maintain oil production at current levels until the end of the year.

You asked me to give you in writing my comments on preemptive war against Iraq which I made at a Wednesday Night, a couple of weeks ago. I have done better. I am sending you the op-ed which I wrote for the Globe and Mail and which appeared today Tuesday 17th September .. see story
Regards, Kimon [ambassador KIMON VALASKAKIS] see Wed1070

Wednesday Sep 18, 2002 cbc
CANADA SLIPS INTO THE RED IN JULY The federal government posted a budget deficit of $128 million for the month of July.

Wednesday Sep 18, 2002 cbc
QUEBEC HOSPITALS GET PASSING GRADE Most Quebecers are satisfied with provincial hospital services, according to a new report.

Anti-smoking lobby turns up heat One ad attacking the tobacco industry shows a bikini-clad man posing with a cigarette. It was part of a well-funded U.S. campaign that included an ad presenting tobacco executives looking down on a street where body bags representing dead smokers are accumulating at the base of a high-rise building. MEDIA CAMPAIGN RESOURCE CENTREThe biggest mistake governments make in designing anti-smoking campaigns is not thinking like tobacco companies, says the man who has spearheaded one of the most successful anti-smoking campaigns in North America.

Friday Sep 13, 2002 Albert Einstein?

Wednesday Sep 11, 2002 Sept. 11 w-n page

Wednesday Sep 11, 2002 A must see Open Letter to the Ministers of Justice and Immigration of Canada

Wednesday Sep 11, 2002 rci REGINA:
IMMIGRATION MINISTER HAS SOLUTION TO DOCTOR SHORTAGEM
Canada's immigration minister, Denis Coderre, has suggested that the shortage of doctors, nurses and other professionals in rural Canada could be alleviated by offering skilled foreign physicians and nurses temporary work permits if they agree to locate in less populated areas. see w-n Immigration

You asked me to give you in writing my comments on preemptive war against Iraq which I made at a Wednesday Night, a couple of weeks ago. I have done better. I am sending you the op-ed which I wrote for the Globe and Mail and which appeared today Tuesday 17th September .. see story
Regards, Kimon [ambassador KIMON VALASKAKIS]

Tuesday Sep 17, 2002 cbc
IMPARTIAL ROLE FOR CANADA ON IRAQ 'INSANE IDEA': ALLIANCE MP The foreign affairs committee wants the government to offer the UN diplomatic expertise to resolve the tension surrounding Iraq. But the committee couldn't agree on a Bloc Québécois motion to have Canada pursue a role as an "honest broker" in the process.

Tuesday Sep 17, 2002 cbc
POWELL SEEKS UN SECURITY COUNCIL CONSENSUS ON IRAQ A day after U.S. President George W. Bush bundled his terms for Iraqi disarmament into one package, his secretary of state began doing some heavy diplomatic lifting at the United Nations.

TORONTO: Monday Sep 9, 2002
MANLEY SAYS CANADA WON'T GO TO WAR ON IRAQ

Tuesday Sep 17, 2002 bbc
Oil price plummets on Baghdad offer
News of Iraq's agreement to re-admit weapons inspectors for the first time since December 1998 has triggered a slump in the price of oil.
Prices fell by as much as 5% in early trading but recovered after the US reacted with scepticism to the offer and said it would still look for a U.N resolution to force Iraq to disarm.
By the US close, the price of a barrel of Brent light crude - one of the benchmarks for the oil business - was down 55 cents to $27.97.

Tuesday Sep 17, 2002 cbc
TUITION SOARS, BUT ACCESS TO HIGHER EDUCATION THE SAME: STUDY A new study on the cost of college and university education says despite whopping tuition increases of 76 per cent over the past 10 years, access to post-secondary education has not been affected.

Tuesday Sep 17, 2002 OTTAWA:
BANK GOVERNOR TO GIVE SPEECH WEDNESDAY
Market-watchers are expecting Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge to explain the central bank's reasoning earlier this month when it surprised the market by freezing interest rates. Mr. Dodge will give a speech Wednesday in Vancouver. The unexpected Sept. 4 decision to leave the key interest rate unchanged at 2.75 per cent led to a dramatic drop in the value of the dollar. Many market-watchers had been expecting a fourth rate hike by the Bank of Canada since spring, as it works to keep inflation under control in a growing economy. And that growth has been strong, with well over 300,000 jobs created in a booming employment market and inflation already right where the bank wants it. That strength, and fears it could soon drive up inflation, has been frequently cited by the bank as it has set out its plan to tighten up the money supply. Marc Levesque, senior economist with Toronto Dominion Bank, said the bank's sudden change of direction Sept. 4 -- holding rates steady instead of another increase -- left markets uncertain and confused. He speculated it may have been due to a divergence between a healthy Canada and a weak America. Many analysts wonder how long this country can continue to expand when our biggest customer is too weak to demand our exports. Further evidence of Canada's strength is expected this week, including August inflation numbers which could show a sizeable increase

see see our house of Steel

Tuesday Sep 17, 2002 cbc
MUTUAL FUNDS IN WORST PERFORMANCE SLUMP SINCE '87 CRASH The average mutual fund investor saw their portfolio shrink for the fifth month in a row in August - the longest period of negative growth in 15 years.

Tuesday Sep 17, 2002 cbc
CANADIAN ECONOMY WON'T BE DRAGGED DOWN BY U.S. WEAKNESS: REPORT The U.S. economy may be labouring to shake off last year's slowdown but that won't be enough to pull down the Canadian economy, TD Bank said in a report out Monday.

David N. Thank You All please also sign the book Great

Robert Gervais as William Roper A Man for All Seasons www.pre2post.com/ Host to some of W-N pages

Wed1071 Wed1073