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Wednesday Night Nov 13th, 2002 #1080
In the immortal words of our former Prime Minister – “we are open for business” tonight. Come and trade ideas and opinions in the Wednesday Night Free Market.
Hi David and Diana, I would love to attend, but I woke at 3am to-day (on-going victim of having crossed the Atlantic on Sunday), taught for one hour and have another 90 minute session between 4.30 and 6 this afternoon. I also have to attend a meeting of the Board of the McGill Pension plan between 11.30 and 3pm if we are lucky. Unfortunately, I will not be able to sleep there, because I am the Chairman, and people would notice.Thus, I beg to be excused. A bientot! Tony
I might bring a guest-- if that is OK
Nancy Philipas is staying with us for a few days.
She is a teacher and has lived in the USA and Europe, as well as here, and
may have a different perspective on some issues.
David [ Mitchell]
David and Diana
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Wednesday Night Report, 1080 Nov 13th, 2002
merger concept
On a local, corporate, municipal national and international level, the merger concept continues to gain support, unfortunately only to be followed by foreseeable yet unanticipated results. Even in the United States where the merger of municipalities is an anathema, the merger of once friendly banks on a regional basis is reportedly accepted as positive. As urban Quebeckers, we are in the process of witnessing the rising per capita costs of municipal mergers combined with the transfer of decision making from elected neighbours to a handful of individuals, however dedicated, who remain further removed from the people who elected them, as well as the transfer of real power to the elected representatives of municipal employees.
Armistice Day
Currently in Canada, we are witness to what is considered by some to be the humiliating effect of a merger of Canada’s armed forces during the stewardship of Pierre Elliot Trudeau, when Paul Hellyer erased the lines between the navy, army and air force. As with all proposed mergers, a good case was made for the move, but it was predictably followed by a steady diminution of pride and moral support on the part of Canadians for those citizens who put their life on the line in order to maintain Canada’s sovereignty, dignity and place in the world as a great nation, a proud but underpaid and under-equipped force with an overstaffed corps of senior officers more resembling a bureaucracy than the lean pragmatic leaders that they have succeeded.
Following a quarter century or more of indifference, in the year 2002, more Canadians wore poppies on their jackets and turned up for Armistice Day services than ever before. They suddenly regained their appreciation for those whose life is devoted to the protection of Canadian freedom and dignity, even in the face of the indignity of being prevented from serving freedom, not because of any deficiency in will or skill, but by the failure of their relatively wealthy country to provide the necessary funds to permit them to operate.
Threats of attacks by terrorists have been made to Canada as well as to the United States and various other countries. Although we probably have the strength of moral character and resilience to survive any such strike, our armed forces are patently unprepared to repel an invasion of even modest proportions. It may be comforting to some to know that our neighbours to the south are committed to defend all of North America, but we must ask ourselves whether we are prepared to yield our sovereignty in this area, while jealously defending it against the Americans in the fields of the arts, literature and culture. Are we really prepared to merge with the United States on their terms, or are we now prepared to increase our spending on the military from twelve to sixteen billion dollars a year? Thankfully, the answer to that question appears to be that with the programmed availability of funds arising from successive national surpluses and debt reduction, more adequate tools and pay for the armed forces will become a priority, along with infrastructure, youth, poverty and continued debt reduction.
Saddam Hussein, the unwilling stimulus for Canada’s sudden reawakening to the need for a military presence, has agreed to accept the United Nations resolution on arms inspection. By Monday of next week, he will be required to produce a list of weapons of mass destruction. There is the belief in some quarters that Osama Bin Laden is in Iraq at this point, and that complete compliance is very unlikely, that there is an 80% probability of war in January or February, 2003, with the toppling of Saddam Hussein within twenty-four hours and his defeat within a week. It is predicted that the price of oil will rise temporarily to thirty or thirty-five dollars a barrel and the stock market will give up all its recent gains, but both recovering rapidly at the end of the conflict.
economy
Sovereign or not, the state of Canada’s prosperity is very closely linked to that of the United States. Although Canadian economy has been healthier than that in the United States and consumer confidence greater, it is probably in large part, related to the fact that income tax reductions here have offset the negative effects that relatively low-paying jobs have replaced the more remunerative positions cut following the recent trashing of the high-tech sector.
In the United States, the latest correction by the Federal reserve was a reduction of half a percent to one and a quarter percent, providing a neutral risk to inflation and economy. The purpose of the reduction was to provide the basis for kick-starting the economy in the event that, following an anticipated fourth quarter recession, a double-dip might occur related to a war with Iraq. It is felt that the Japanese experience clearly demonstrates the need to prepare for the possibility of such an event and to react quickly. The fourth quarter projection of one to two percent real growth could conceivably turn out to be a negative one percent justifying the Fed’s action.
The U.S. has seen a loss of twenty thousand jobs in September and October, unemployment has risen to 5.7%, there is renewed weakness in manufacturing, with factory orders declining by 2½% according to the National Purchasing Managers Services (NPMS) index.
Sales of durable goods declined by six percent, personal consumption declined as did services. Sales of new vehicles were down by 33% year over year. Consumer confidence is at a nine year low. There has been a fourth consecutive decline in leading economic indicators.
Inflation is stable at 1.5% (core, 2.2%). The Producer Price index is -1% (-0.4% core), the trade deficit has reached a record 38.5 billion. There has been a two consecutive month decline in industrial production, accompanied by weak capital spending and weak corporate profits. Retail sales declined by 1.2% in September.
There remains strength, however, in the housing market, inventory rebuilding and net government spending.
At its next meeting on December 10, the Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
Notes by Herb Bercovitz • & Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson
2002, Nov 13th, Notes for #1080
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Video and audio from the BBC news archive
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Saturday Nov 16, 2002 cbc
U.S. counting on Canada
Canada is not being asked yet to support an American-led war against Iraq, but U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell made it clear Thursday if military action is deemed necessary, then Canada will be expected to contribute.
HeidiHollinger.htm Read a good review on the Book
 The Russians Emerge
Robert Siegel speaks with photographer Heidi Hollinger and writer Jonathan Sanders about their new book, The Russians Emerge. It documents Russians in the post-Soviet era through pictures and words -- how they live and what it means to be Russian now. (9:00)
The book is published by Abbeville Press. ISBN # 0789207575.
Heidi Hollinger page by w-n with many links
Thursday Nov 14, 2002 MONTREAL:
MONTREAL HAS LOWEST BIG CITY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
For the first time in 15 years, Canada's second biggest city,
Montreal, enjoys a lower unemployment rate than its bigger rival,
Toronto. Statistics Canada reports that Canada's unemployment rate
was 7.6 per cent in October, down slightly from September. For the
country's three biggest cities, Montreal had an unemployment rate of
7.5 per cent in October compared to 7.7 per cent in Toronto and 8.1
per cent in Vancouver. Montreal still trails Toronto in terms of
overall economic activity, but the statistics indicate that it is
catching up. As measured by the employment rate - the percentage of
the population that is actually working - the economic activity in
Montreal is at its highest level since the 1950s. [It is hard to get much lower than 7% with our Wealthfare System. A single with 3 kids gets something like $32,000. Why work? DTN]
Wednesday Nov 13, 2002
 IRAQ TO ACCEPT UN DEMANDS
Iraq will comply with the UN Security Council and allow weapons
inspectors to return, the country's ambassador to the UN said on
Wednesday.
Wednesday Nov 13, 2002
 GREENSPAN SAYS U.S. ECONOMY IN A 'SOFT PATCH'
The U.S. economy has hit a "soft patch" with consumers more hesitant to
spend and investment risks rising, Federal Reserve chairman Alan
Greenspan said Wednesday.
Wednesday Nov 13, 2002
 Iraq
Saddam Hussein has accepted a UN resolution calling on Iraq to give up weapons of mass destruction. But that may have been the easy bit. Evidence of his arms programmes still has to be uncovered
IN THE end he had no option. True to form, Saddam Hussein tried to keep the world guessing for a while, but on November 13th he accepted a tough United Nations resolution that calls on his regime to give up weapons of mass destruction or face a war. The Iraqi ambassador to the UN, Mohammed Aldouri, said a letter had been delivered to the UN Security Council accepting the resolution “despite its bad contents”. Although Mr Hussein has agreed to let the weapons inspectors return, he still has to comply with other tough conditions.
From: John Jonas [mailto:john.jonas@rug.ac.be]
Sent: Wednesday, November 13, 2002 4:55 AM
Dear Diana and David:
Here is the e-mail I promised, necessarily delayed
until our rendez-vous with Christine and Hubert actually took place- which
finally occured last Sunday as part of our "Brussels weekend" when John and
I were guests of the Francqui Foundation President at their headquarters in
Brussels. Of course, we added the predictable visit to the famed Grande
Place (still as magical as ever) and Chez Leon for the world's tastiest
mussels. By lunch time Sunday, we presented ourselves at Hubert's door and
indeed had a wonderful time with this lovely family- our first invitation to
a Belgian home! I have never met more endearing children. Those
ever-smiling twin girls are really something. After a delicious lunch, we
ventured out in their family van on a "family outing", in spite of the
pouring rain. Our destination was a Holy Shrine village, where pilgrims have
travelled for hundreds of years. I may next see Hubert at a choral concert,
which he and his office staff will attend before Christmas.
Meanwhile, our life here in Gent is pleasant, simple,
relatively unstressful, and our little apartment now reasonably comfortable.
John enjoys his new duties and colleagues, and will finally be giving his
"Inaugural Address" on Nov. 28th, for which 500 invitations have been sent
out! After that, John will fly to Montreal and be installed at Susan's for
12 days.
There is a love affair going on between me and the
"public transport" system here. I never use the new car. I have now
travelled on all the trams,wherever they go, and am now exploring the routes
of all the buses. In this way, I really get to know the town - a
complicated one, because of all the canals. On top of all this, I hop on
the local trains quite regularly and thus bring myself to many further
destinations. These day trips have already brought me to Charlesroi,
Brussels airport, and the oceanside town of Ostend. Antwerp (50 minutes) and
Brugges (20 minutes) are next. The train service is incredible. (You never
find me on a train in Canada!) All this train-happy activity has been
triggered by my learning that all SENIOR CITIZEN travel costs only 2.5
Euros- the cost of a cup of coffee!!!! And it matters not how far you
travel! I can travel to any border town at the same price.
How else do I pass my time? Well, I have the Flemish
language to learn, John and the apartment to take care of, Xmas preparations
including arranging for the arrival of three of my children in December, and
above all John and I have joined a Fitness Club and we attend quite
regularly. In fact, we are departing for Passage Spa in a few minutes!
Love, Holly
Wednesday Nov 13, 2002 cbc
 KYOTO AGREEMENT COSTLY FOR FAMILIES: TAXPAYER'S ORG.
The cost of the Kyoto Protocol has been pegged at $2,700 per family in
Canada, according to the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. rci on Kyoto
Please click here to see new/updated pages since last visit
 Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Is Canada’s Labour Market Losing Steam? - November 13, 2002
Other weekly commentaries
David N. Thank You All please also sign the book Great
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