the Markets
Despite, or perhaps due to a jittery economy with the expectation of a dismal fourth quarter, interest rates remain unchanged and are likely to remain so until the second half of 2003. Despite a very good Thanksgiving, chain department store sales were down 2% in November in the U.S. and are not expected to be better for the Christmas season. The strong U.S. dollar is likely responsible for the current economic situation but the maintenance of interest rates at their current level is considered the best insurance to leave enough leeway to kick-start the economy sufficiently rapidly, should the current low level of inflation slip into deflation.
Following the recent disillusionment with the stock market as a secure place in which to invest, there appears to have been a shift from stocks to real estate, ensuring a slow, difficult return to health for the stock market. There is some concern that in the current and forecast economic situation, George W. Bush may find it difficult to achieve re-election at the end of his current mandate.
Canada
As for Canada, the economy has been booming. The Canadian Dollar has begun to improve as have commodity prices including gold and metals. A sixty-four and a half cent Canadian dollar is predicted by the end of this month.
The fiscal year will end with a relatively modest four billion dollar surplus, of which three billion being retained for contingencies. Supplementary estimates were introduced in Parliament last week for five departments totalling 5.7 billion dollars, which may very well lead us back into deficit this fiscal year thus denying the expenditure of the sum of money recommended by Romanow for medicare. The economy remains strong however and with debt and hence interest payments down, there should be sufficient money over the next five or six years to pay for all proposed spending on social issues. In the second half of 2003, the expanding economy may well exceed its capacity, necessitating a tightening, perhaps up to ¾%. This year, with a growth rate of 3.7% we will outpace the G-7 in growth and for the fifth consecutive year, outperforming U.S.
Thanks to legislation already passed, Québec income tax will come down slightly as of January 1, 2003. This expected tax cut will necessitate an increase in the P.S.T.
Russia
Under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, the Russian economy is growing, with the second largest rate of growth after China, largely due to an expanding trade surplus. Russia’s gross domestic product in U.S, dollars, was 43%, of Canada’s with growth estimated at 4% for this year (5% last year) versus Canada’s growth of 3½% and China’s 8%, but is doing fairly well at creating jobs, despite the continuing growing pains of the aftermath of communism and the poorly-controlled “Russian Mafia”, negating the original rush by Westerners to invest in that country. Foreigners continue to invest, however, but to do so, now requires dependable, honest Russian partners in order to be viable. Vladimir Putin is strong, intelligent and possesses a good sense of humour. He has been a stabilizing influence in post-communist Russia.
MUHC
As the McGill University Health Centre Glen Yards project limps along, the controversy remains over whether the money would be better spent on direct patient care.
The case for the new centre is clear, but issues around it are not. The oldest of the McGill hospitals is the Montreal General, housed in the most recent building, constructed in 1954. Being the first of the post-world war II hospitals built in Québec, possibly in Canada, it was conceived on a 1920 or 1930 model. In the transfer from the old Dorchester Street site, patients arrived in moving vans, each accompanied by a Nurse. A single dying patient remained at the old site because of the fear that she might die in transit. With the technology and medication developed over the past couple of decades, the very nature of treatment has been transformed, rendering this type of philosophy and procedure obsolete.
The nature of the construction accepted long waiting time for the transportation of goods, patients, employees and visitors at a time when salaries were very low and it was felt by employees and professional staff that the security of working in a caring community outweighed the salary deficiencies, but today, a building not conducive to the efficient transportation of patients, staff and supplies can prove very costly.
Because of the long patient stay at that time, medical Interns and Residents were able to follow patients over a relatively long period at various stages of disease. With modern technology and the sharp reduction of patient stay, it is difficult for this aspect of training to be maintained with the present facilities, because it is difficult to receive over any specific short period of time, the critical mass of patients at a single site that can offer the same type of on-hands training and variety of illness at various stages.
Finally, to attract the finest specialists on the continent to the McGill hospital treatment centres, adequate research facilities at or in close proximity to them, is essential.
For these reasons, the establishment of a combined university tertiary care treatment centre, readily accessible by road, rail, air and public transportation is essential in the 21st century. The Glen Yards venue is a viable option to meet these criteria.
There are two great areas of concern, the first being the escalating costs. Are we getting value for our investment? The second is, are we substituting a new expensive primary and secondary facility for those already extant, or are we adding to our health care facilities, a 21st century tertiary care facility, while maintaining adequate beds and personnel to meet the needs of those requiring care now provided by existing community or regional institutions.
QUOTES OF THE EVENING:
- “Real estate values have climbed at the expense of the stock market.”
- "Love thy neighbour but don't get caught"
- “The fundamentals for Canadian dollar have never been this strong.”
- “Jean Chrétien will be gone by June ... If necessity is the mother of invention, hope is the father of prediction.”
Notes by Herb Bercovitz • & Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson OWN
2002, dec 11th, Notes for #1084
 |  | On This Day
Video and audio from the BBC news archive
1950-2002 |
Did you ever wonder what would have happened had the 3 wise men been 3 wise
women? thanks to Dr. David M
Wed Dec 11 2002 Fed Policy To Stay Super Easy
The Fed remains nervous about the economy and interest rates will stay down next year
As expected, the FOMC did not change policy at yesterday’s meeting. The post-meeting statement suggests that policymakers see the economic risks as balanced, but our private meetings with Fed officials indicate there is considerable concern about the potential downside. The Fed is desperate to avoid deflation and the economic data are not yet strong enough to reduce those fears. The key to avoiding deflation is to get economic growth on a sustained path of 3% or more. Until that occurs we cannot rule out more rate cuts. Moreover, contrary to market expectations, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in 2003. bcaresearch chart
Saturday Dec 14, 2002 cbc 
U.S. FUMING OVER OTTAWA POT PROPOSAL
A Canadian proposal to decriminalize possession of small amounts of
marijuana is causing concern in the United States.
Wednesday Dec 11, 2002 cbc 
New S.E.C. Chief Named
President Bush selected William H. Donaldson, a former head of the New York Stock Exchange, to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Wednesday Dec 11, 2002 cbc
CANADIAN INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY USE UP IN THIRD QUARTER
Strong export growth and healthy activity in the new home construction
industry helped Canada's industries boost their capacity use in the
third quarter of this year, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday.
Wednesday Dec 11, 2002 cbc
HEAVILY INDEBTED CANADIANS VULNERABLE TO INTEREST HIKE: ECONOMIST
Canadians have become so used to cheap debt brought on by low interest
rates that any near term rate hike could lead to an increase in personal
bankruptcies, an economist cautioned on Wednesday.
Wednesday Dec 11, 2002 cbc
VENEZUELAN SUPREME COURT SHUTS DOWN
Venezuela's Supreme Court has suspended its work claiming political
harassment, as well as condemning the government for deadly violence
during a general strike by opponents of President Hugo Chavez
Wednesday Dec 11, 2002 cbc
DION SAYS BYELECTION SHOWS LIBERALS GAINING IN QUEBEC
Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Stephane Dion says the margins of
victory in two federal byelections on Monday show there are no longer
any safe seats for the Bloc Québécois.
Dec 10, 2002 cbc CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SLIPS IN CANADA FOR SECOND STRAIGHT QUARTER Canadian consumer confidence declined for the second straight quarter
amid concerns over the health of the economy, Decima Research and
Investors Group said in a survey released Tuesday.
Monday Dec 9, 2002 rci OTTAWA: KYOTO RATIFICATION A HOUSE FORMALITY
Members of Canada's House of Commons will ratify the Kyoto Accord on
Tuesday The outcome of the vote is a foregone conclusion because
Prime Minister Jean Chretien has declared it a matter of confidence.
That means if ratification is voted down, the government would fall
and a snap election would have to be called, a scenario the Liberal
party doesn't wanthere has been a problem in misdiagnosis of young, loud, angry black men as
schizophrenic. [wouldn't that be nice! dtn]
Saturday Dec 7, 2002 cbc 
U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY O'NEILL QUITS AS WHITE HOUSE SHAKES UP ECONOMIC TEAM
U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill unexpectedly resigned Friday along
with a senior White House economics advisor as the Bush administration
moved to shore up confidence in a struggling economy.
click for Notes on KYOTO stories
Friday Dec 6, 2002 ec Half measure
The European Central Bank fulfilled expectations and cut interest rates by half a percentage point to 2.75%. A probable further easing of inflationary pressures and the likelihood of sluggish growth encouraged the bank to heed the calls of Europe's businesses for economist chart
Friday Dec 6, 2002 ec NEVER in the field of human commerce have so many spent so much on so little—
America's productivity grew by an impressive 5.1% at an annual rate in the third quarter, outstripping forecasts. Productivity often bounces in the first year of a recovery as workforces have been trimmed; but the pace of growth is a sign that the economy is now reviving. economist photo
Friday Dec 6, 2002 cbc DEFENCE MINISTER WANTS TO SPEED UP HELICOPTER REPLACEMENT
Defence Minister John McCallum says the government will move quickly to
replace its aging fleet of Sea King helicopters. Spoof Song
Wed Dec 04 2002 U.S. Consumer: Healthier Than You Think
The U.S. economy should enjoy decent growth next year: no big acceleration, but also no big consumer retrenchment phase ahead.
The current issue of the monthly Bank Credit Analyst publication updates our outlook for U.S. consumers. The research was prompted by an onslaught of pessimistic forecasts, related to rising consumer debt and better-than-expected consumption growth in recent years. The report presents an aggregate indicator of consumer health, taking into account consumer-related economic and financial variables, which shows that conditions are much better than in the early 1990s, because of the aggressive easing in policies and strong housing market. Looking ahead, policy will not tighten until after employment growth is decisively positive, implying low odds of a consumer-led downturn.
bca chart
Please click here to see new/updated pages since last visit
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Venezuela’s Tensions Run Deep - December 11, 2002
Other weekly commentaries
David N. Thank You All please also sign the book Great
 Host to some of W-N pages
|
Wednesday Dec 11, 2002 cbc 
PRICES FOR DVDS, ELECTRONICS ABOUT TO SKYROCKET: RETAIL GROUP
The cost of buying electronic products and recordable CDs and DVDs will
be skyrocketing, according to an organization of retailers.
The CPCC collects $21 out of the $50 charged for 100 recordable CDs. The CPCC wants to boost the levy to $50, increasing the total cost of 100 CD-Rs to $89.
..."Canadian consumers will be asked to pay $112 extra on the retail price of some of these products," says Brian Levy of Radio Shack. "This will kill the market here and drive consumers to the United States."
Wednesday Dec 11, 2002 The Guardian publishd an item which might interest Pere Noel.
"One of the more unusual toys on sale at JC Penney's US-based online
store, a "pre-bombed" home with a soldier and American flag, has
already been noted in the UK press. But those who remember the sniper
murders in the Washington area last autumn may be more interested in
another of the store's Christmas toys: a Hasbro GI Joe Long Range
Sniper - 12 inches long, "fully articulated", and with miniature
replicas of a long range rifle and appropriate camouflage. It is,
apparently, suitable for children of five and over. For the more
peaceably inclined, the World Peace Keepers Battle Station -
"includes everything needed to stage a battle" - can be enjoyed by a
three-year-old.
www.jcpenney.com from David Mitchell
Dec 10, 2002 cbc 
U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE HOLDS INTEREST RATES STEADY
As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve left its key overnight lending
rate unchanged when it released its final policy decision of the year
Tuesday afternoon.
Dec 10, 2002 cbc CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SLIPS IN CANADA FOR SECOND STRAIGHT QUARTER
Canadian consumer confidence declined for the second straight quarter
amid concerns over the health of the economy, Decima Research and
Investors Group said in a survey released Tuesday.
Wed1083
Wed1085
Andy Nulman 
;)
Bloomberg
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