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by dthebaud
Wednesday Night Salon #1115
July 16th 2003
July 1st, July 4th and now Bastille Day are all in the past. Have you
noticed that the pattern of our national days does not reflect the usual
positions of these three countries? For once, it is the U.S. that is
squeezed between Canada and France.
The Americans (or at least George W.) appear to have turned their
attention/ire away from us, why they're even sympathetic cluckings about
the impact on trade of the solitary Mad Cow. Maybe they thought that Ralph
Klein was it.
Now Liberia is on the hit list. And there is always the Hunt for Saddam, not to mention the witch hunt in Washington over "the 16 words that should not
have appeared". We warmly recommend Maureen Dowd of the NYT on that subject
"The House of Waffles"
But then, as one of our more perceptive Wednesday Night commentators
suggested, we seem to be in an era when statesmanship is sadly lacking. Just
when we thought that Berlusconi and Tourism minister Stefano Stefani had set a new standard for outrageous, we find this on the BBC: Japan's gaffe-prone
So what of Canada? According to Jack Jedwab, writing in the Gazette,
Canadians are more worried about relations with Washington than
constitutional woes. Now that Quebec is in the Construction holiday period,
the premiers' conference was somewhat hijacked by the federalist Quebecois,
Paul Martin is said to have the largest-by-far war chest, Ralph Klein has returned from his invasion of Washington ... what's to worry about? More
downsizing at Air Canada and Alcan's rejection by Pechiney. We'll hear more about that this week. And we welcome Me John Ciaccia back from Italy (HE can
tells us about Berlusconi). And we hope that Julius will join us for a
dissertation on European politics. And Marcus Hope is in town, fresh from
London.
Friday Jul 11, 2003 PARIS:
PECHINEY SAYS TWO-FIFTHS OF SHAREHOLDERS REJECT ALCAN BID
The chairman of the French aluminum firm Pechiney says he agrees with
the company's board of directors that the takeover bid by the
Canadian aluminum company Alcan Inc. should be rejected. Jean-Pierre
Rodier calls Alcan's bid of $3.9 billion US "ridiculous." The
directors dismissed Alcan's bid on Monday. This has led to
speculation that the Canadian company may increase it. If the hostile
bid by Alcan is successful, the merger would create the world's
biggest aluminum firm with annual revenue of $22.9 billion US. The
biggest aluminum firm at present is Alcoa, with yearly revenues of
$20 billion US. Meanwhile, Alcan's CEO, Travis Engen, has spent the
past few days in London and Paris. He's lobbying on behalf of the
hostile takeover bid with Pechiney's institutional investors. He says
his main selling points are Alcan's strong financial performance and
successful integration three years ago of the Swiss aluminum firm
Algroup.
Wednesday Night # 1115
July 16, 2003
This Wednesday evening witnessed the frustration arising from the attempts at resolution of current controversial problems. As usual, the expression of views by guests represented the entire gamut of public opinion on each topic, making for an extremely interesting evening with, of course, no resolution.
Treaty 8
We humans sometimes tend to believe that we live in an unchanging world where interpersonal and international fortunes and relationships will continue indefinitely. On June 21, 1899, the eighth agreement between Queen Victoria and thirty-nine First Nation communities living on 840,000 square kilometres of Alberta, Saskatchewan, British Columbia and the Northwest Territories. This agreement, according to First Nation elders was intend to apply “as long as the sun shines, the grass grows and the river flows.”
In 1977, Phil Fontaine was elected National Chief of the Assembly of First Nations, but was unable to resolve, with the Government of Canada, the problems created by Treaty 8. His successor, Matthew Coon Come, elected in 2000, had no more success. On March 7, 2002, twenty-three native bands in northern Alberta were declared exempt from paying taxes when living either on or off the reserve in a federal court ruling. Phil Fontaine has now been reelected National Chief of the Assembly of First Nations and will undoubtedly push hard to exploit that decision to the benefit of Canadian Aboriginals, which runs contrary to the opinion of many who would accord this right only to Natives living on reserves. The Canadian government, while historically taking a paternalistic view of native communities and reluctant to spend the sums of money required to buy out outdated treaties, will provide the newly elected Chief with an interesting challenge.
Times change. European countries such as Rome or Burgundy, were intended to exist forever, but have disappeared. Canadians has moved from a farming, fishing and hunting community to a mining, manufacturing, service and technology based community, with the abandoning of farms and the depletion of fish stocks. While, apparently for political reasons, the government of Canada appears reluctant to let Canadians engaged in fishing suffer the same fate as farmers, in most instances, natural evolution is supported.
How much are we as Canadian Citizens adversely affected personally by the reduction of due process and civil liberties of those living here who are not citizens? To what extent must due process be sacrificed for the sake of perceived national security? Adil Charkaoui, a Montrealer of Moroccan origin is being held on a Security Certificate, permitting him to be tried without facing his accuser or seeing the evidence against him. Is this the second millennium’s version of the courtroom in the Doges Palace in Venice where anonymous accusations were placed into the lion’s mouth, with the trial taking place next door and where the accused, inevitably found guilty, was led over the Bridge of Sighs into the airless, windowless, lightless dungeon? Although this may still be the case in some countries, it is certainly not so in Canada. However, the evidence supplied by the court in the Charkaoui case was furnished by CSIS and North American and British intelligence agencies have been known to commit great errors, as their intelligence is not always verifiable. Indeed, it would seem possible if not likely, that a settling of personal accounts could be done by providing CSIS with false information, if the subject were an immigrant. At one time, when communism was the perceived threat, Pierre Elliott Trudeau made trips to China and Cuba and was never accused of being a threat to Canada. In support of the case against Charkaoui, the fear of terrorism in North America is real, although Canada has up until this point, not experienced a single incident. Tony Blair’s intelligence information on weapons of mass destruction in Iraq has done him no service. Guests’ quotes on this topic are revealing of the varying positions on the debate as to how much we will yield in civil liberties, or how differently we are prepared to treat citizens and immigrants, in order to gain security.
Marijuana & Tobacco
Wednesday Nighters appear to be continuing the debate on marijuana and tobacco. Tobacco is addictive when the concentration of nicotine in the cigarette exceeds a certain level. The American Medical Association has passed a resolution proposing the reduction of the nicotine in cigarettes to non-addictive levels, in the hope that addictive smoking, especially in teenagers, will be prevented, permitting non-addictive social smoking to continue. Supporting this initiative, and hoping to eliminate the objection in the United States that such legislation would encourage smuggling, the Canadian Medical Association intends to pass a similar resolution at its August 9 meeting.
There is still much controversy over the decriminalization of marijuana in Canada and its prescription by physicians. A single joint is equivalent to four cigarettes in its effect as a causative factor in lung cancer. It may very well still be the drug of choice in some instances, but that is yet to be determined and many physicians are reluctant to prescribe it without adequate research having been published.
stock market
The collapse of the stock market combined with low interest rates, has spawned a series of income funds. These are basically trust funds of which some revenue-producing source will sell the potential. Such sources include yellow pages and rental of hot water heaters. The early funds yielded up to eighteen percent annually, but the yield has come down to from seven to nine percent. Considering the anticipated combined appreciation and dividend increases in equity and the difficulty in finding secure non-depleting assets as the basis for income funds, their long-term success is certainly not assured.
hope
With the growing up of a group of educated, dynamic, enthusiastic, completely bilingual bilingual business- oriented Québec forty year olds, the economic future of our province becomes increasingly hopeful. Their personality and sales pitch is indicative of the break with the past divisive provincialism and portends an era of self-confidence and success, both personal and national.
QUOTES OF THE EVENING:
- “They were the original settlers and we have destroyed their way of life.”
- “I don’t think we can deny that we have dealt with them badly. They do have certain rights devolving from the treaties signed.”
- “We have always known that there is a price to be paid for civil liberties.”
- “We would cut more crime if we had cameras on every corner, but ...”
- “Any government in the Arab world, if they want to discredit anyone, all they have to do is call CSIS.”
- “Bush decided to go with something that the CIA was still analyzing. It was Dick Cheney and Condy Rice, hanging the CIA did not do.”
- “If you don’t have the evidence, don’t try it.”
- “The Certificate protects you from divulging and compromising your sources.”
- “Let’s say, you have an undercover agent who has infiltrated a biker gang. The greater good is served by the person knowing the evidence against him, but there is a price to be paid.”
- “If you based minority rights on what the majority thinks, you would never have minority rights.”
- “Isn’t that (reducing nicotine content in cigarettes) like serving half a glass of wine in a restaurant?”
- “You seem to believe that smokers want to quit.”
- “Lung cancer has surpassed breast cancer in women.”
- “To deliver it (marijuana) through a tobacco-like product makes no sense. It is an effective drug, for some, better than pill ... cancer, nausea ... for some people it works very well. You have to prove that it is the best drug but that proof has not been done.”
- “There is far greater damage from alcohol than marijuana, but as use goes up, that might change.”
- “I get the impression that governments are reluctant to do the right things.”
The G.D.P. rose by 1.4% in the second quarter and should expand by 3% to3½% in the third quarter and 3½% to 4% in the fourth quarter, given the forty-five year low in interest rate, thirty-five billion dollar tax cuts this year, capital gains tax reduction, as well as taxes on dividends and the significant decline in the U.S. dollar. Wage increase is the lowest in twenty-one years.
QUOTE of the EVENING
- “Everyone should have some treatment for heart disease. Fifty-five years of age is too late to start, perhaps forty is good.”
Notes by Herb Bercovitz • & Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson
W-N Links for #1115
2003, July 16th Notes for #1115
Tuesday Jul 22, 2003 TORONTO: CONVICTED MURDERER OUT ON BAIL AFTER THREE DECADES
[That is 30 years with nothing no sex no life .. an all we can do is make him wait another 2 & a half years?]
A man who spent 31 years in jail after a murder conviction was freed
on bail in Toronto on Monday. Roméo Phillion was released to the
custody of his sister pending an investigation by the federal justice
department into whether he was wrongfully convicted. Phillion
described the feeling of freedom as "marvellous." His lawyer says he
may be free on bail for as long as 18 months while the depart
conducts its inquiry. Fillion was convicted of the murder in 1967 of
a firefighter in Ottawa. He says he confessed to the murder while in
jail on a robbery charge as an ill-advised practical joke.
Monday Jul 21, 2003 nyt
 Let's Blame Canada
By MAUREEN DOWD
They were wrong, of course. Soldiers should not go public in the middle of a conflict and trash-talk their superiors or ask for the resignation of the secretary of defense
Friday Jul 18, 2003 nyt
Recession Is Over; Jobs Aren't Trickling Down
The recession that began in March 2001 ended eight months later, the National Bureau of Economic Research, an independent group that tracks the business cycle, concluded in a report released yesterday. ...But the jobless claims report underscored the lackluster nature of the economy and the national unemployment rate of 6.4 percent.
Friday Jul 18, 2003 cbc
BANK OF CANADA LOWERS ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST
The Bank of Canada on Thursday lowered its forecast for economic growth
for the second time this year, cutting its expectations to 2 per cent
due to the shocks from SARS, mad cow disease and the quick rise in the
dollar.
Wednesday Jul 16, 2003 MEI
Quebec’s Tax and Regulatory Burden
In his inaugural address opening Quebec’s 37th legislature, newly elected Premier Jean Charest stated that taxes must be lowered not just for the pleasure of it but “because it is necessary, because our tax load is an obstacle to our development.” What exactly is the current situation? What is the weight of this tax and regulatory burden that people in Quebec are forced to bear? Economic Note on the tax and regulatory burden people in Quebec are forced to bear.
Wednesday Jul 16, 2003 gazette
Property valuation to soar
see w-n on Real estate
Wednesday Jul 16, 2003 bbc
 The U.S. dollar bounces back
The greenback jumps sharply in Europe and Asia, reversing months of steady declines - and pleasing policy makers in many countries.
Comments on Tuesday from Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan, while downbeat, were seized on as evidence that the US could at last be in definite recovery.
A wave of interest-rate cuts around the world, most recently in Britain and Canada, has also encouraged US investors to shift out of overseas assets.
Wednesday Jul 16, 2003 gazette
Alcan is sticking by its guns on Pechiney
At Maison Alcan, the mood remains adamant. Aluminum giant Alcan Inc. insists it has made a fair offer for rival Pechiney SA of France. "We think the offer for Pechiney shareholders represents a really attractive 28-per-cent premium over the unaffected share price, and it represents the full and intrinsic value of the company," Must see T-AL w-n file
Tue Jul 15, 2003 cbc
U.S. FACING RECORD $455 BILLION DEFICIT
The U.S. government is forecasting a $455 billion US deficit this year
and $475 billion US next year, the White House said Tuesday.
Tuesday Jul 15, 2003 w-n the BANK OF CANADA cut the rate by 1/4
Monday Jul 14, 2003 cbc
BANK OF CANADA SEEN LEAVING INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged
on Tuesday morning when it announces its next decision.
Monday Jul 14, 2003 cbc
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EASED TO 7.7 PER CENT IN JUNE
Canada's unemployment rated edged down in June to 7.7 per cent - a
drop of 0.1 of a percentage point from May as the service sector added
jobs. [Not good!]
How deep can the U.S. trade deficit get? Dennis Gartman recently wondered
at what point does the U.S. trade deficit as a percentage of GDP become
“unsustainable?” They used to say 1% was not sustainable, then 2%, then
3%, then 4% and now at over 5% they are saying the same. “Why should they
be right now?” he asked. Fair enough. But something has to give at some
point. It may be the U.S. dollar that must drop further to curb demand for
foreign goods. Or perhaps the record levels of per capita debt will
finally peak, taking down consumer buying and the demand for imports down
with it? One thing is not likely: that GDP will grow enough to make up the
difference.
No idea is so crazy and ill-founded that it cannot be
believed by an intellectual. – George Orwell thanks to Canaccord Capital
Wed 1114 July 9nd, 2003
Jacques Clément intro Benoit Mailloux; silver threads into the white screen (hence, silver screen)... compact disks, D.V.D.; compact disks, HDTV; Air Canada is bankrupt; Canadian dollar Dr. Andre Pasternac on blood/sugar; Udo Stundner, Bea Bazar
... & Laura Johnston stoped by; Also see our new Miliary News file
Wed1114 | slide show | Album 1114
Notes by Herb Bercovitz 2400x297 pan 1114
Saturday Jul 12, 2003 cbc
EXPORTS SLUMP ON MAD COW FALLOUT, LOWER ENERGY PRICES
Falling energy prices and the effects of mad cow disease sent Canada's
exports of goods tumbling in May to their lowest level since Oct. 2001,
Statistics Canada said Friday. see w-n
Saturday Jul 12, 2003 CANADA: POSTAL STRIKE DATE SET
The Canadian Union of Postal Workers has set a July 18 strike date
for its 45,000 members. see w-n Labour notes
Saturday Jul 12, 2003 cbc
ENRON UNVEILS RESTRUCTURING PLAN
Enron unveiled a restructuring plan on Friday that will see creditors
get only a small portion of what they're owed by the company. see w-n full history
Saturday Jul 12, 2003bbc
Oil price surges on storm fears
Oil prices climb to a two-month high on fears a tropical storm could disrupt production in the Gulf of Mexico.
The price of benchmark Brent crude for August delivery gained 51 cents a barrel to $29.39 in late trade.
While New York's light sweet crude August contract climbed 50 cents to $31.56 in early deals. see w-n Oil notes
Saturday Jul 12, 2003 cbc
WTO RULES AGAINST U.S. STEEL DUTIES
U.S. steel import duties that Canada and Mexico escaped last year have
been ruled illegal by the World Trade Organization. see w-n for more
Wednesday Jul 9, 2003 cbc
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EASED TO 7.7 PER CENT IN JUNE
Canada's unemployment rated edged down in June to 7.7 per cent - a
drop of 0.1 of a percentage point from May as the service sector added
jobs. [we pay people not to work 7.7% is very bad! DTN]
Greenspan: Fed Ready to Keep Rates Low
Tue July 15, 10:22 AM ET
By Caren Bohan and Tim Ahmann
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan signaled on Tuesday he was ready to keep U.S. interest rates low for a "considerable" period of time to lift the sagging economy and prevent a dangerous fall in prices.
Quebec’s Tax and Regulatory Burden
July 2003 / Economic Note on the tax and regulatory burden people in Quebec are forced to bear
In his inaugural address opening Quebec’s 37th legislature, newly elected Premier Jean Charest stated that taxes must be lowered not just for the pleasure of it but “because it is necessary, because our tax load is an obstacle to our development.” What exactly is the current situation? What is the weight of this tax and regulatory burden that people in Quebec are forced to bear?
Thursday Jul 10, 2003
One of the jewels in the collection of luxury automobiles of deceased Quebec painter Jean-Paul Riopelle has been sold to Montreal businessman Lino Saputo.
The Saputo CEO spent $245,000 to obtain the 1939 Bugatti 57 C. It was among several cars sold at auction Wednesday. The auction was held at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel.
Another prize from the collection, a 1936 Bugatti 57 which was owned by the Michelin family as well as Pierre Maisse, the son of famed painter Henri Matisse, sold for $210,000.
Wednesday Jul 9, 2003 cc U.S. plans to shut out Canadian defence firms
Sweeping "Buy-America" provisions in proposed U.S. defence-spending legislation could cost Canadian defence and aerospace companies billions of dollars in lost contracts and throw thousands of their employees out of work, Canadian and U.S. industry officials warn. http://www.canada.com/national/story.asp?id=34E2CEB5-9DB2-4C60-88E2-37CF10605525
Wednesday Jul 9, 2003 cbc
 BUSH MAKES SECOND STOP IN AFRICAN TOUR
George Bush arrived in South Africa Tuesday, the second stop on a
five-nation African tour aimed at promoting economic development and
helping to fight AIDS.
Wednesday Jul 9, 2003 cbc
'SADDAM' TAPE URGES IRAQIS TO EVICT OCCUPIERS
Two TV channels in the Middle East broadcast an audio tape on Tuesday
they say was made by Saddam Hussein.
Wednesday Jul 9, 2003 cbc
ECONOMISTS PREDICT SLOW GROWTH FOR CANADA
Scotiabank said the global economy will continue to show slow growth,
however the United States economic growth rate will outpace Canada by
0.25 per cent this year.
Wednesday Jul 9, 2003 cbc
CANADIAN DOLLAR DROPS ALMOST ONE CENT US
The Canadian dollar sank almost one cent against its U.S. counterpart
Tuesday ahead of a closely-watched unemployment rate due out later this
week. see w-n $chart
Wednesday Jul 9, 2003 cbc
PLACER DOME TO MAKE $255 MILLION US GOLD MINE AQUISITION
Vancouver-based mining company Placer Dome Inc. said it will pay $255 million U.S. to buy East
African Gold Mines Ltd., in a bid to boost its annual production. see w-n ABX chart | w-n Gold
Sunday Jun 15, 2003
 BLAIR DEFENDS INTELLIGENCE ON IRAQI WEAPONS
British Prime Minister Tony Blair said Tuesday he stands "totally"
behind the case he made for going to war against Iraq.
Preview this week's slide show w-n 1109 | past 1108 w-n slides
22 May 2003 - International Day for Biological Diversity
Please click here to see new/updated pages since last visit
 Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Would boosting the Chinese yuan be helpful? - July 30, 2003
Other weekly commentaries
David N. Thank You All please also sign the book Great
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