We hope the Easter Bunny was kinder to you than to many politicians - on the first anniversary of Jean Charest's government, the basket seems loaded with rotten eggs; Paul Martin's government still struggling with sponsorship scandals, Air Canada crises, poor poll results, and now surely the decision to welcome the Khadr - family back from Afghanistan is going to have major repercussions.
Dr. John Shingler |
Poor George Bush (did we say that?) - last night's speech was hardly an oratorical triumph and the message is not welcome... at least two of the members of the coalition are reconsidering as the wave of kidnappings continues. The demerger battle heats up with the war of the reports. With all the bad news, let's watch today's South African elections with hope and review them tonight in the company of wise observer and commentator, Dr. John Shingler.
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Wednesday Apr 7, 2004 bbc
US bombards Iraq mosque complex
THE BIG PICTURE
Wednesday Apr 7, 2004 ec
 The challenge in Iraq It was one of the worst weeks so far. But it would still be wrong to write Iraq off
PLAINLY, it is bad. For the first time in more than a year of occupation, the Americans find themselves in armed conflict with a well-organised militia of Shias, the 60% or so of Iraqis who were repressed especially brutally by Saddam Hussein and had hitherto seemed willing if not entirely happy to co-operate with his removers.
Diana and David Nicholson
Economic forecasts
Apr 7th 2004
From The Economist print edition
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Every month The Economist calculates the average of a group of forecasters' predictions for economic growth, inflation and current-account balances for 15 countries and for the euro area. The table also shows the highest and lowest projections for growth. The previous month's figures, where they are different, are shown in brackets. The panel has become more optimistic about the outlook for Japan, which it now expects to grow by 3.2% this year, up from 2.6% a month ago; and by 2.0% in 2005, up from 1.8% in March. However, it has become more pessimistic about the prospects for recovery in the euro area, forecast to grow by 1.6% in 2004, down from March's forecast of 1.8%; and by 2.0% in 2005, down from March's 2.2%. Britain, which remains outside the euro, is now expected to grow by 3.2% in 2004 and by 2.6% in 2005, up from March's forecasts of 3.0% and 2.5%.
Wednesday Apr 7, 2004 ec
Nortel Networks said that it faced a formal probe of its accounts by America's Securities and Exchange Commission. The Canadian telecoms-equipment firm had previously said that it may need to revise its accounts back to 2000. Last month, it put two senior financial executives on paid leave.
Amidst the uncertainties of the market and concerns about the jobless
recovery, it is worth considering the statement from Stephen Poloz, Senior
Vice-President and Chief Economist, Export Development Canada in his weekly
report of March 10: "Disposable personal income is 3.7% higher than last
year, personal consumption spending is up about the same amount, and
household wealth has risen by 12% in the past 12 months. These are not
boom-like numbers, but they are solid and will continue to support growth."
So, will the market continue to rise?
We don't pretend to have the answers, but we will look very briefly at a
tool that may provide some help - MetaStock Professional 9.0 is
award-winning charting and analysis software for Real-time Traders.
Jacques Clément and our faithful economists, reinforced by "Uncle Hughie"
Anderson, will supply the charts to navigate the way through the evening's
topics. see Canada: Economic and financial data
Wednesday Jan 7, 2004 gaz
Latest Outlook fights junk e-mail
by HUGH ANDERSON ...to improve your sex life and your business prospects ..Unwanted e-mail or spam costs money as well as time and aggravation, especially for small businesses with little time or money to spare.
[see w-n on spam] & www.unclehughie.com
Direct-Access Trading Competition Heats Up In Canada
By Hugh Anderson
Toronto-based E*Trade Canada went hunting for what it called hyper-active traders, with its launch of a major enhancement package for the broker’s three-year-old Power E*Trade service
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Wednesday Night Salon
# 1154 April 14, 2004
Introductory Note: Father David Oliver returns after a six-month absence, three months of which were spent in Bangalore. He has just completed his MBA at McGill and plans to devote some time to applying his newly-acquired talents to the needs of NGOs and other parishes
SOUTH AFRICA
Ten years after apartheid, it is interesting to look back at the successes and failures of the ANC (African National Congress) in ruling South Africa.. There is no doubt that the ANC will win the upcoming elections, the question is what kind of governance is the ANC providing? President Thabo Mbeki's government has suffered from errors that have prevented that country from enjoying the same success as countries such as South Korea and Taiwan that have moved successfully to an open market society. But these problems go back to the period 1948-1994 when the SA government established a kind of national socialism for the elite – two generations were lost during that period and there is no evident niche for South Africa in the global economy. It will likely have to rely on minerals; competition from countries like Chile and Australia in agricultural products is too strong. Unions have effectively stopped South African from competing in the clothing sector. Poor infrastructure, education and economy have held the country back, but more especially, the lack of an emerging middle class. While there cannot be any doubt about the gigantic strides made by South Africa in the past decade, escaping the devastation of tribalism seen in other African countries, the failure of education to prepare the population with needed skills means that it will be a long road to prosperity.
Mbeki came to power as the supporter and lifelong friend of Nelson Mandela. An effective politician, he lacked the skills of other Africans who had, in exile, acquired an international approach to South Africa, resulting in an inward, protectionist approach leading to powerful unions preventing the country from really profiting from an open world economy. He never really succeeded in the transformation from opposition to government. Despite these problems South Africa remains a stable, democratic country with a free press, good electoral process and an independent judiciary. These factors as well as the terrible nature of the leadership between 1961 and 1969, still fresh in the minds of South Africans, make the probability of instability or insurrection virtually nil.
Some problems to be solved include:
- Failure to identify and recognize the source of HIV/AIDS
- Failure to address the problems of Mugabe in Zimbabwe
- Failure to address the problem of crime which may have reached a plateau
- An infrastructure too undeveloped to promote growth
- The absence of a middle class of significant size
- Powerful unions that resist competing in the world market
- Weak and inadequate police force
- Too narrow land ownership
- Inadequate disease reporting and control, although over-reporting is probable.
- Poor distribution of inadequate wealth. Even if the wealth of the middle and upper classes were to be redistributed to the poor, average income would remain inadequate.
The latest official figures put unemployment at 28% in March; a broader measure has it over 40%. The painful but necessary reforms of the past decade—including cuts in subsidies and tariffs—and an economy shifting from mining to services have caused a hemorrhaging of formal jobs. Though informal ones have appeared (a net rise of perhaps 2m between 1996 and 2002, says the government), the workforce has also grown rapidly, swelled by migrants from Zimbabwe.
It is open to doubt as to whether the soon to be reelected ANC will be able to cope successfully with many of these problems. The following elections in 2009 will probably prove to be the watershed. Will 2010 see a government of inward-looking “real home boys” or one of “cosmopolitan exiles” that can lead this great nation to the rewards it needs?
Friday Apr 16, 2004 ec
 A landslide for Mbeki
President Thabo Mbeki’s African National Congress has won a landslide victory in South Africa’s elections. But there is much to be done to consolidate the gains the country has made in ten years of democracy
QUÉBEC
Prime Minister Charest has correctly pinpointed shortcomings in the government of Québec, but has not enjoyed popular support in correcting them. We spend much more on education than other provinces, but with over five thousand employees at the Ministry of Education compared with eighteen hundred (being further reduced) in Ontario and our Ministry of Health twice as bloated as that of Ontario, but the government gains no brownie points for trying to downsize. Perhaps Mr. Charest has to clearly define the problem and explain his plan of action and timetable to the public, repeating them to the electorate on a daily basis and in terms that people can understand in their daily life, - or perhaps the population of Québec is just not yet ready to listen.
A propos Jean Charest's image, this month's l'Actualité has a telling two-page piece comparing him to a comic strip about a shepherd whose sheep will not follow him. Link to: lactualite.com/homepage
The university sector is particularly vocal about its problems. The freeze on tuition fees cannot last, but nor can we expect the financial woes of the universities to be solved on the backs of the students.
PREDICTIONS.
- June 14, 2004 - Federal election
- June 21, 2004 - Demerger referendum
JACQUES CLÉMENT’S REPORT ON THE ECONOMY
CANADA
As expected, the Bank of Canada eased monetary policy for the fifth time since July, 2003 in order to stimulate domestic demand as “the economy is adjusting to the stronger Canadian dollar that prevailed in the first quarter and the intensive international competition as the global economies and commodities are recovering.” Exports had weakened in January as had wholesale sales, manufacturing shipments and employment (February - March). Consumer spending had moderated and business spending was stagnant. Consumer confidence tumbled and G.D.P in January was negative. New vehicle sales have just begun to recover after seven consecutive monthly declines, the worst in three years. The savings rate is at a record low of 2% with close to 1.3 million unemployed (7½%), Ontario (particularly Toronto) has still not recovered from SARS and tourism continues to be affected.
Addiitional woes have been caused by the Madcow Disease and now the avian flu. In addition, the political uncertainty that surrounds the Liberal government is not to be underestimated, including corruption scandals.
The housing market continues at a record pace with starts rising by 14% in March and new home prices up 5% (year/year). Exports have recovered sharply in February as have imports and the trade surplus at 5.7 billion is the highest since September (6 billion). Bank of Canada will present its monetary policy report tomorrow. Although very early, I would not expect Bank of Canada to ease policy again on June 8. The Canadian dollar will probably continue to trade between 74 and 76cents U.S. Inflation at 0.7% (core 1.1%) is at its lowest level in two years.
U.S.
G.D.P in the first quarter is likely to be revised up to 4¾% - 5% growth, supported by strong consumer and business spending, a very strong housing market, soaring manufacturing orders and production, rebuilding of inventories, the fastest job creation in four years, twenty year peak in business confidence, average productivity gain of over 4½ % and strong consumer confidence. The export sector has recovered sharply in February. Retail sales have improved by 3% in the first quarter, given the improved job climate, low borrowing costs and tax refunds. Department store sales increased 7% in March. Profit expectations are for a rise of 15% to 20% in the first half. The geopolitical situation will continue to weigh heavily on the equity markets.
The Euro could weaken further to $1.18 U.S. and gold is in a $400.00 U.S. to $420.00 U.S. trading range. Crude oil near term trading range $36 U.S. to $38 U.S. U.S. inflation is stable at 1.7%, but core has moved to 1.6%. Despite the speculation, I am not expecting the fed to tighten before June.
Friday Apr 16, 2004 OTTAWA: CENTRAL BANK REMAINS UPBEAT ON ECONOMY
The Bank of Canada has maintained its predictions on Canadian economic growth in an update on Thursday. The central bank's report says the the economy will grow by 2.75 per cent this year and by 3.75 per cent next year. The report says the economy's continuing strength is due mostly to consumer confidence. However, it also says that the biggest threat to continued growth will be the need to adapt to changes in the world economy involving such rising countries as China and India.
QUOTES of the EVENING
- “South Africa is not tribal in its politics.”
- “I don’t think we can turn things around yet in Québec because we haven’t suffered enough yet.”
- “One of things that struck me about Canadians is that all they do about it is talk, talk, talk, talk and this is a good thing, because the alternative is doing something else [pulling out swords and daggers and guns].”
- “Charest has to explain what he is doing every day. He has to say it over and over and over and over.”
- “Public servants are powerful by the force of their numbers.”
- “First you tell them what you are going to tell them; then you tell them what you want to tell them; then you tell them what you just told them"
- “Public servants are powerful by the force of their numbers.”
- “The tax rate in Quebec for lower income people is a good deal".
- “The corporate tax rate for small business in Quebec is the lowest in the country"
- “Outsourcing would be a good idea if we could apply it to Bush"
- “What's wrong with sharing some jobs with people around the world who are capable? They may not be better but they ARE cheaper, and some of them are brilliant. And it keeps our people on the edge."
- “The stock market moves in an expansionary mood for a long time and then moves in a consolidating mood for a long time. We are once again in a consolidating period for ten years during which the Dow will not go higher than 11,000 or 11,500.”
- “Productivity gains in labour are really capital gains for investors.”
- "Money is going to be for sale in the near term."
Notes by Herb Bercovitz • & Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson
2004 W-N Links for #1154
Globe chart
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://kitconet.com/images/sp_en_6.gif)
Wednesday 31 Mar 2004 FGT found 37 Diamonds see FGT
2004 Notes for #1154
Sunday Apr 18, 2004 ec Inflation in America rose unexpectedly sharply. Consumer prices increased by 0.5% in March hitting 1.7% for the previous 12 months. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, reached 1.6%—its highest level for a year. Meanwhile, deflationary pressures eased in Japan—wholesale prices increased for the first time in nearly four years. And prices in Germany, the euro area's biggest economy, rose by 0.3% in March to 1.1% for the year.
Friday Apr 16, 2004 gaz
Landry says he would undo demergers
Former Quebec Premier Bernard Landry said Friday that if he is returned to power he would undo any municipal demergers if they were to occur. ...Landry said that to demolish the megacities would be one of the worst things to ever occur in the political history of Quebec.
Friday Apr 16, 2004 ts
Stamps, fine wine, art, classic cars or GICs?
Our governments believe firmly that money cannot buy happiness, at least not for GIC savers. Otherwise they would not treat us so badly.
Today, for example, you would earn 2.45 per cent or less if you bought a one-year GIC. Even if you pay the lowest tax rate, your real, after-tax return would be negative if inflation came in any higher than 1.9 per cent.
Friday Apr 16, 2004 ts
Strong trade numbers fail to give loonie a lift
Canadian exports in February shot up 7 per cent from the prior month, more than offsetting a 4.7 per cent drop in January.
Thursday Apr 15, 2004 QUEBEC MARKS ANNIVERSARY OF CHAREST ELECTION WITH PROTESTS
Protests were held across Quebec on Wednesday to mark the first
anniversary of Premier Jean Charest's government.
Wednesday Apr 14, 2004 Gazette
Protests a tactic: Charest
Premier Jean Charest dismissed protests today to mark the first anniversary of his election win as a bargaining tactic by public-sector unions. ..."It's all about renegotiating the labour contracts," Charest said in an hour-long interview with the Gazette editorial board yesterday. "That's what it's about. Period."
[He will pay our bills! DTN]
Thursday Apr 15, 2004 ANC EXPECTS BIG WIN IN SOUTH AFRICAN ELECTION
Millions of South Africans cast their ballots on Wednesday, the third
national election since the collapse of the apartheid system 10 years
ago.
Wednesday Apr 14, 2004  South Africa set to plod on with Mbeki
President Thabo Mbeki’s African National Congress looks set for an easy win in South Africa’s elections this week. But there is much to be done to consolidate the gains the country has made in ten years of democracy
Apr 12, 2004 wn  Capacity for evil is universal
In tracing the cause of the Rwanda genocide, it's hard to know how far back in history to go - but what happened in Africa 10 years ago is only the latest example of humanity at its worst
Very powerful piece on Rwanda, but also relevant to Iraq discussion. DianaN
Wednesday Apr 7, 2004 gaz
Cut Milton's bonus, too JAY BRYAN ....I refer, of course, to the $42 million worth of bonuses for Air Canada boss Robert Milton and his chief cost cutter, Calin Rovinescu, that turned up in the rescue plan negotiated with Hong Kong investor Victor Li. see AC
Preview this week's slide show
w-n 1154 | past 1141 w-n slides
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January We Got Him!Eliot A. Cohen, who kindly contributed this article, is professor of strategic studies at the Paul H Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, J
 Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Canadian Companies Adjusting to Stronger Dollar - April 14, 2004
Past issues
David and Diana:
One of these days, I'm actually going to make it down to Montreal on a Wednesday night to see everyone again. Thanks for keeping me in the loop, and best wishes to all.ohns Hopkins University.
Steve Poloz
Thanks very much for this, David and Diana. Steve Poloz is good value for
money--good value not for money, too. But I'm afraid I can't make it. In my
domesticated incarnation I'm simply not allowed to go out late.
Cheers, Bill Watson
Wed 1153 Apr 7th., 2004 allies such as Spain Hugh Anderson .. on Iraq .. pull out?, the United States (or the United Nations) will have to be committed to keep the peace for the long haul ... war is always considered affordable and the U.S. can afford billions more... but attacks on U.S. territory = devastating effect on the economy. With Peter Perkins; Dr. Hans Black own Japan
Dr. David Mitchell own & Jacques Clement own; U.S. created > 300,000 new jobs in March China's boom to bust soon.. ...Worries Cda $ political scandals 70 cents this year Harry Mayerovitch O.W.N.
Album Notes by Herb Bercovitz Art No new photos this week
 Wed1153
 Wed1155
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South Africa set to plod on with Mbeki Wednesday Apr 14, 2004 
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