Wed 1169
Maisonneuve won two National Magazine Awards: a gold medal for spot illustration and a silver for writing on social issues. We’re particularly pleased at the result; with two medals out of a possible six, we’re batting a respectable .333 in the majors.
The Maisonneuve office moves to a new space in downtown Montreal on (wait for it) boulevard de Maisonneuve.
Is there any other topic than the Democratic Convention and the electric performance by Bill Clinton on Monday night?
Did anyone notice that Clinton, Gore and Carter all referred to the environment as one of the major areas of failure of the Bush administration; certainly the media paid little if any attention.
Yes, of course the world doesn't stop at Boston and there ARE other important events that are suitable for Wednesday Night discussion.
In Canada there seem to be two good squabbles starting up: the minister of immigration's request to church leaders to refuse to harbour people seeking refugee status and the politicians' squaring off against the CRTC over the CHOI decision. (We wonder what Sheila Copps' reaction would have been?)
Aviation nostalgia was aroused with the retirement of the last Labrador Helicopter to the National Aviation Museum and of course the segue is the decision on the newly announced purchase of the Sikorsky to replace the Sea Kings. Another controversial decision for the newly-minted Cabinet.
Curiously, we have had no discussion so far of the findings of the 9/11 commission, nor its mirror image in the UK and the different reactions of the respective leaders.
As most of Europe seems to be preparing to go on holiday and the Tour de France has again (quel horreur!) been won by an American, news is chiefly of preparations including installation of anti-aircraft missiles, for the Athens Olympics. As athletes prepare for the Games, we wonder whether there will be any further development in the fate of the Elgin Marbles.
Floods in China and southeast Asia, forest fires in Portugal and southern France, locusts threaten to destroy crops from Libya to Mauritania ... we think we should go somewhere else.
So, please join us and do check wed1168 for last week's events and return here for further news and developments
David and Diana
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Wednesday Night Salon
# 1169 July 28, 2004
The Democratic Convention
The evening opened with the current hot Internet send-up of the two presidential candidates, set to the tune of "This Land is My Land", launching an inevitable discussion of the Democratic Convention and in particular Tuesday’s telecast of the Democratic Party leadership convention and the impressive new figure, Illinois state senator, Barak Obama, a sure bet to be elected to the U.S. Senate and to make his mark on the federal political scene. [See the New Yorker Profile ]
The Convention is historic and the speakers have, so far, been brilliant. It appears that the directive that Kerry has given that the Convention must concentrate on uniting the party and refraining from endless attacks on Bush has paid off; even while individual speakers have taken opportunities to condemn the results of the Republican administration's acts, the overall emphasis has been on two different approaches to governing a country that everyone loves.
The majority of Wednesday Nighters are unsupportive of the current administration’s policies but recognize that traditionally the Republican Party is viewed as more pro-business than the Democratic Party. Some believe that a Democratic administration would have an adverse affect on the stock market. On Friday (30 July) the Office of Management and Budget is expected to say the deficit for the current fiscal year will total between $425 billion and $450 billion. On July 15, House Budget Committee Democrats estimated the red ink at about $425 billion. Regardless of the exact figure, it is expected to be the largest deficit ever in nominal dollar figures.
A bit of trivia for future generations: it must surely have been a first that two of Tuesday Night's speakers represented the African continent, - Theresa Heinz Kerry, born in Mozambique, and Obama, whose father was a Kenyan civil servant and economist.
Water
Do not let your chances like sunbeams pass you by,
For you never miss the water till the well runs dry.
- Rowland Howard, You never miss the Water
As the world population grows and the reserves of fresh water shrink, access to fresh water to satisfy the needs and wants of humans, agriculture and industry, becomes more of a problem. Canada has, in the Great Lakes, the world’s largest reservoir of fresh water and our consumption exceeds nature’s capacity to replenish it.
Whereas western philosophy attributes ownership of water to the owner of the land on and in which it lies, or that it touches. Islam views water as a common good. Syria and Turkey are currently experiencing water shortages and rather than claiming proprietary rights, they are negotiating optimum solutions. Valencia, Spain, still motivated by its Moorish traditions, has established a water tribunal to arbitrate water claims, the only place in the world where such a tribunal exists.
In North America in addition to the forty percent loss of water in Montreal due to inadequate maintenance of our water delivery system, we blissfully ignore the inevitable by watering lawns and golf courses, filling swimming pools and fountains as well as using water to cool our commercial air conditioners. [40% leaks out of the system]
At successive world meetings starting with Rio in 1992 and strongly underscored at the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development, the United Nations has singled out assured supplies of and access to potable water and clean water for sanitation as key to sustainable development.
[Editor's Note: In launching the WEHAB initiative (Water, Energy, Health, Agricultural productivity and Biodiversity), Secretary-General Kofi Annan stated: "Unless we take swift and decisive action, by 2025 as much as two thirds of the world’s population may be living in countries that face serious water shortage. We need to improve access. We need to improve the efficiency of water use, for example by getting more “crop per drop” in agriculture, which is the largest consumer of water. And we need better watershed management, and to reduce leakage, especially in the many cities where water losses are an astonishing 40 per cent or more of total water supply.' See:scienceinafrica.co; also see the :World Water development Report at: unesco.org/water/ ]
The International Secretariat for Water .i-s-w.org/, an international NGO, is headquartered In Montreal The ISW acts in an advisory capacity, principally in developing countries, providing support and mobilizing local communities involved in the management of freshwater. Currently the ISW is focused on communities in Central Asia.
Embryo Stem Cell Research with Margo Somerville
The address by Ron Reagan, son of the late President, to the Democratic Convention on Tuesday evening has put the issue of stem cell research in the headlines in the U.S. this week.
The United States appears to be coming to grips with the issue of embryo stem cell research that was resolved in Canada several years ago following a lengthy debate here. This issue is more complex in the U.S. because of religious as well as moral and ethical concerns and the perceived link between it and the abortion issue. The embryo stem cell debate is symbolically more important than abortion because the embryo stem cell issue involves the creation of life for the sole purpose of killing it and making it into a product (a product which it is hoped will provide a cure for such illnesses as Alzheimer's). The issue of the use of embryos left over from attempts to solve problems of infertility is not nearly as important because these were originally created for the purpose of life.
McGill and technology transfer
The Office of Technology Transfer hopes to foster entrepreneurship among the faculty and researchers so that McGill University successfully joins other North American universities in forging links to combine the skills and backgrounds of industry and academia for the mutual benefit of the community, the university, the individual faculty members and students, - a winning combination for all. The only word of caution is the perceived need for a more advanced ethical system, presumably based on legislation to ensure that one actor does not gain at the expense of the others. For the moment at least, it looks like a win-win combination for McGill and its partners.
Maisonneuve Magazine
Its publisher, Derek Webster, introduced Wednesday Nighters to Maisonneuve Magazine, subtitled eclectic curiosity, and billed as "the new New Yorker of the younger generation". Published bi-monthly in English out of Montreal, (since 2000) it also has a powerful online presence with an excellent, easy-to-navigate Website. Intelligent, eclectic, slightly eccentric, cross-border & international in content, Maisonneuve has an audience of mainly 25 – 45 year-olds who "tend to be intelligent, sophisticated, curious, generalist readers who live in major arts-minded urban centers".
Housing prices in Montreal
Historically, house prices increase at the same rate as the G.D.P., but we are currently about ten percent above that trend line. It is predicted that house prices will be stable for the next three to six months, but with rising interest rates and increased municipal evaluation, markets will level off and possibly decline.
Note
Wednesday-Night creates charts and follows stocks, including timely related financial news items, in which Wednesday Nighters are interested and in order to demonstrate a service that could eventually be developed and marketed. Wednesday Nighters are invited to participate and help to test the service.
UNITED STATES
Current Beige Book
CANADA
As expected, on July 20 Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2% and discount rate at 2¼% as they still expect real economic growth averaging 2¾% this year and 3½% next year as they expect a slowdown in exports. They see the U.S. economy averaging 4½% this year and 4¼% next year. They appear to have shifted to a tightening bias as the economy is running out of spare industrial capacity faster than they expected. “Monetary stimulus must be removed”, said David Dodge. “The economy should reach its full potential by mid next year.”
Productivity only rose by 0.5% last year after 2.5% the previous year. Retail sales rose for the fourth month in the last five by 1½%, excluding autos. Job creation of over 110,000 so far this year has led to higher disposable income and strong consumer spending. Low housing costs have led to the strongest housing starts in seventeen years. The manufacturing sector remains strong with shipments rising by 1.1% in May, inventories rising by 1.5%. New orders declined by close to 1% but are up 11% in the last six months. The inventory-to-sales ratio is close to the lowest on record. New vehicle sales continue to decline over 3% with the highest gasoline prices in twenty years. Inflation remained stable at 2.5% with Bank of Canada’s core rising to 1.7% (year/year). The Canadian dollar weakened from 76½¢ U.S. (July 19) to 75¢ U.S. (July 27), its largest drop since April on a stronger U.S. dollar, weaker commodity prices, the timid response by Bank of Canada to the threat of inflation as the economy might soon be expanding at a rapid pace and as industrial activity is very strong. Second quarter G.D.P. is expected at over 4% by the private sector. Bank of Canada should start tightening monetary policy at its September 8 meeting by ¼% to 2¼ %.
Canada's gross domestic product rose by .3 per cent in May over the figure for the previous month. Statistics Canada had recorded similar increases for March and April. StatsCan says much of the growth is due to the country's energy sector, which benefits from the ongoing high prices of crude oil. The federal agency says the economy grew by 3.2 percent in the 12 months preceding May 2004.
UNITED STATES
July’s Beige Book
The housing sector showed a mixed picture for June. New home sales declined nearly 1% following May’s record month and was the second highest month on record. Existing home sales, despite the rise in mortgage rates, rose by over 2% to a record level. Housing starts fell 8½ %. Consumer spending slowed in the second quarter because of inflation and Allan Greenspan viewed it as short-lived. The manufacturing sector was also weak with weaker industrial production. Testifying before Congressional committees, Greenspan, revised real economic growth downward to 4½% to 4¾%, core inflation at 1.5% to 2% by the end of next year, and unemployment at 5% to 5¼%, with a modest increase in unit labour costs. Year-to-date producer and consumer prices have risen at an average annual rate of 5% boosted by transitory factors such as energy prices, according to Greenspan. “Those higher prices have eroded households' disposable income.”
The Federal Reserve on August 10 will keep raising interest rates by ¼% to 1½ % as they try to restore monetary policy neutrality at a measured pace and unwind the very easy policy of the last three years. G.D.P. is expected to rise by 3½% to 4% in the second quarter.
QUOTES of the EVENING
- “Water is a human right. Everyone in the world has the right to (access to) water”
- “Water will become the main issue in Canada in three to five years.”
- “When the United States becomes involved, water will become a commodity”
- “Right now, water is within sovereign nations. It is going to be a very difficult proposition because you are shortly having to solve a global problem by superseding national sovereignty”
- "We are taking much more water out of the Great Lakes than is going in. Shortly this will become a disaster. Groundwater is being depleted at an accelerated rate"
- “This (frivolous use of water) is not a human right, it is the right to garden”
- “The embryo is the transmission of human life. Is it ethical to create human life for the purpose of making products?”
- “There is less ethical problem with leftover embryos which were not created for the purpose of killing them”
- “The economies that believe in hell are more likely to succeed than those that don’t”
- “The markets would be happier if Bush is elected than if he is not. Bush's platform is perceived to be more pro-business than the Democrats'"
- “lt is always interesting to witness history, as we did last night, at nine o’clock in the evening”
- “From academics for academia to academia for products that are useful to society”
- “The (Canadian) minority government will last eighteen months”
- "Magic death cross – a stake through the heart of the market – and the garlic market is up"
- "It's harder to become president of the Harvard Law Review than to become President of the United States"
from Wed 1168
- “In Canada, there is capital available for good ideas but the bar is high.”
- “For a while, we had double digit returns and so they (pension funds) went to better benefits but now they are having problems.”
- “People like Mr. Greenspan have the best job. He does not have to forecast. ... It is impossible to forecast (accurately).”
- The strength (weakness) of the Canadian dollar is the result of events in the rest of the world, rather than to good Canadian policy".
Notes by Herb Bercovitz OWN & Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson OWN
2004 W-N Links for #1169
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Staying safe Jul 30th 2004 
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