Wednesday Night Salon
#1244 Jan 4th 2005 Page 2
Introduction
U.S. market watchdog looking into income trust affair
We were somewhat disappointed that almost nobody wanted to play our game of the 12 questions for 2006 and the few who did respond were highly skeptical of the one on Iran.
We would like to point out that this was not a frivolous query in light of recent developments. As the Economist puts it: "Eliciting international criticism, Iran this week said it will resume nuclear research, perhaps on January 9th. America and others say the Islamic country is developing a covert nuclear weapons programme and the UN’s nuclear watchdog is growing increasingly exasperated. Iran’s fiery president seems set on confrontation that will provoke diplomatic sanctions, or worse". This seems to us a more than adequate provocation for a U.S. invasion before the Congressional elections.
Musings
Quite apart from serving as a source of amusement and entertainment for young children, perceptive adults can relate to the similarities between the confined animals (or for that matter, lobsters in a pot) and themselves; the more receptive the adult, the more apt the metaphor. In the wilds, food and water were not always readily available and life was dangerous and precarious, yet adaptation to a safe life of constraint and dependence proves to be a mixed blessing. For those animals born in captivity, a life of cradle to grave care would more than compensate for the risks entailed in the wilds, were that possible.
Canadian politics
On a totally unrelated topic, Canada can boast of a superior lifestyle, acceptance of diverse cultures and languages, a balanced budget and decreasing debt, a good social safety net, placing us in an enviable situation vis-à-vis the G-7 or G8 countries or, for that matter, the world.
[Editor's note: there is a nagging not-so-little problem, however, as pointed out in a CanWest article in Thursday's Gazette: "Canada really does have a problem with productivity. There are different ways to measure productivity, but arguably the best is what economists call "multi-factor productivity.'' And, on that score, there's reason to worry: In the decade before 2001, Canada placed 14th out of 16 countries measured by the OECD."]
We are wealthier, healthier and live longer (on average 30 years more than 100 years ago) than ever. Surprisingly for many, we also live safer. We have fabulous resources and yet there is a pervasive feeling that Canada is myopic, that debates have not changed for 15 years and, essentially, the country is not important on the world stage. Canada is currently facing a national election and Canadians are not only misinformed about their current status by both politicians and establishment media, but are being bribed segmentally with their own money in an attempt to obtain votes for the party which has the most to gain from a given segment of the population.
Despite the list of promises of social reforms by all parties, though perhaps well-intended and/or motivated by the season in which the spirit of giving is so prominent, it is to be hoped that deeper issues will motivate the voter. It is also to be hoped that the fate of our cherished if not fully appreciated, heritage will not be determined by those so turned off by the process that they do not vote.
Immigration
The promise of the elimination of a head tax on immigrants has merit and should have been done a long time ago had any political party recognized the importance of this issue before the immigrant party loyalty issue became important.
Though there is a great need for qualified professionals such as Physicians and Engineers, and our health care system is desperately short of healthcare professionals, it is unlikely that any elected government would be tough enough to force the professional bodies to permit qualified foreign professionals to work.
[Editor's note: Stephen Harper says a Conservative government would extend a full apology for the Chinese head tax, ease citizenship rules for children adopted abroad, and slash the long-hated landing fee of $975 imposed on immigrants … the Conservative leader also vowed yesterday to attempt to make it easier for immigrants to have their foreign credentials and experience recognized in Canada. ]
China versus India
The story of China’s industrialization is not news, yet it is believed by some Wednesday Nighters that China is about a quarter century behind India in that area, principally due to the political heritage of the two countries. Both have a reliable, competent workforce and a well-educated population, but India has the advantage of having had a history of British rule, perhaps a mixed blessing, and can boast of a sophisticated civil service, judiciary and legal system, reasonable infrastructure and the fact that it opened its markets to foreign investors some 25 years ago. Investing in the two countries is a totally different exercise; in China it is the municipalities who will be your financial partners. One Wednesday Nighter highly recommends China, Inc. : How the Rise of the Next Superpower Challenges America and the World ,by Ted C. Fishman.
Estate taxes
Many if not most members of the aging Canadian population, probably the most affluent in out history, believe that they will leave the bulk of their life savings to their children or heirs, fully realizing that the Government of Canada is a very important member of that group. Although the estate left to one’s spouse is tax free, it becomes taxed at half the normal tax rate, or about 24% on the second transmission.
Radio, the long-lasting treasure
In the 1920’s movies were black and white and silent and radio was local. At one point, national (and international) programs were broadcast locally “through the medium of electrical transcription,” in other words on vinyl discs, shipped to participating radio stations throughout the continent. In 1939 at the New York World’s Fair, there was a barely visible image on a tiny cathode tube that emanated from the adjacent room. This was destined to become the great medium of television, which was supposedly destined to eliminate the cinema and certainly, radio, especially after the introduction of colour. It didn’t and radio is still thriving today. It is the most immediate and personal medium, listened to by people in their cars and for background music. News is heard first on radio. It seems that that medium which was supposed to be the first casualty of sound and picture transmission, lives on and prospers, albeit through various incarnations such as AM, FM and Satellite, while, in the audiovisual field, the much-heralded VCR tape faces an unheralded demise in the near future. Radio’s secret is that throughout its evolution, it has remained local, a valuable member of the community in which it operates.
Beryl speaks
In the best traditions of community radio, 940 AM has invited Beryl Wajsman to host a special series of talk shows on Sundays from noon to two. Beryl assures us (unnecessarily) that: "It will not be ordinary talk radio. 940 AM has taken the bold initiative of allowing us to bring public advocacy to the airwaves
…We will bring on air many of the most compelling personalities you will hear anywhere. But not just to pontificate. These guests are among the most effective social activists and guardians of the public interest in the country. They will bring to bear their experience and assets to guide, advise and intercede on behalf of the real needs of real people." Stay tuned! Radio
Sharon and Israel
Political void
The long, painful process of moving the Israelis and Palestinians closer to peace appears to have been cruelly shattered with the rising popularity of Hamas in Palestine and Hawk-turned-Dove, Sharon, gravely ill. If, as it appears at this point, Netanyahu wins the upcoming Israeli election, peace in that region, if not in the world, is in grave danger.
[Editor's note: For a good analysis of the major Israeli players see: Which way now for Israel after Ariel Sharon? ] see also on-going BBC coverage
Predictions [last week]:
TSX up to 11,500 by mid-year [Dow Jones 11,000] by mid-2006
Can$ could reach 87-88 cents US (some economists are saying 90 cents). Canadian currency is very desirable because of the high trade surplus (six-seven billion dollars) and low inflation
CMHC is forecasting 5% increase in house prices. Housing starts have peaked
In some communities Gacaca worked very well. Women assumed a leadership role, often acting as lay judges. However, at other times there are so few survivors that there can be a conspiracy of silence to protect someone. The major problem is the Tutsi-controlled government that is interfering in the proceedings. The Tutsis arriving as a military force after the first genocide were clearly responsible for war crimes on their own account and are trying to cover up by using the genocide as a distraction. The government is authoritarian and human rights workers are being targeted under a new law that makes it illegal to question the current history of the genocide.
The most interesting innovation of the Gacaca law gives sentencing powers to these community courts - prisoners (neighbors) can be freed if they confess and apologize since the sentence is commuted and the time already served counts. Maximum sentence is 25 years. A prisoner’s dilemma is that he must confess before being accused to receive the amnesty; as prisoners confess, it is becoming apparent that more and more people were involved in the genocide and rather than reducing the number of suspects, Gacaca is increasing them to almost one million.
Only the most notorious prisoners are sent to the UN Tribunal in Tanzania. There are also some national trials in other countries.
The Gacaca trials were modeled in part on the Truth and Reconciliation commissions of South Africa. But in South Africa there was a clear division between the truth component and the criminal component and the commissions were not trying the suspects, but only attempting to obtain information. There is a reevaluation of the benefits of the South African commission approach as transitional justice. There is little doubt that it was helpful and has contributed to the formulation of other models of criminal justice. The International Criminal Court in The Hague is watching the effectiveness of local justice approaches with a view to harmonizing them with international criminal justice.
US politics
The change in the Americans' public perception of President Bush can be traced directly to his failure to give forceful leadership in the early days after Hurricane Katrina. However, he still has many conservative supporters as exemplified by The Federalists Society at Harvard Law School. This conservative group of students with considerable power within the School, supports the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito.
The nomination has come under more fire since it was revealed that in 1984 he defended the right of government officials to order domestic wiretaps for national security(/Alito) – a major issue as Bush comes under fire for secretly ordering domestic spying of suspected terrorists without a warrant. However, Alito will likely be confirmed, despite the President's diminishing popularity and credibility and some emerging congressional recalcitrance.
The media is now asking more questions on the Iraq War; it is no longer unpatriotic to question.
[Editor's note: The Paul Krugman op-ed piece "Heck of a job, Bushie" in the December 30 New York Times bears out these comments.
Some highlights:
A year ago, everyone expected President Bush to get his way on Social Security.
A year ago, everyone thought Congress would make Mr. Bush's tax cuts permanent, in spite of projections showing that doing so would lead to budget deficits as far as the eye can see.
A year ago, Mr. Bush made many Americans feel safe, because they believed that he would be decisive and effective in an emergency.
A year ago, it was clear that before the Iraq war, the administration suppressed information suggesting that Iraq was not, in fact, trying to build nuclear weapons. Yet few people in Washington or in the news media were willing to say that the nation was deliberately misled into war until polls showed that most Americans already believed it. ]
Michael Ignatieff
Etobicoke-Lakeshore is a difficult riding. While the Liberal incumbent, MP Jean Augustine, 68, stepped aside to allow him to be parachuted, others (Ukrainian Canadians) who wanted the chance to run say they were blocked from filing nomination papers. The comments about the Ukraine in his book were taken out of the context where he was using it as an example of nationalism – an –ism that he is very opposed to.
It remains a mystery to many why he would accept to run for political office – a Senate appointment would have accomplished the necessary and allowed him independence of thought.
Privacy
A long and heated discussion ensued starting with the acceptability of unauthorized wire-tapping. Discussion ranged from cameras in public spaces and spread to everyone being forced to supply a sample of their DNA. Consensus was there are two separate issues here: in terms of security measures in public areas, there is little objection to such measures as cameras in public places if their presence reduces the crime rate and aids the police (e.g. London bombings, England plans to install more cameras; Monaco has low crime rate and high surveillance; security cameras at ATMs and in banks). The argument was raised of the slippery slope represented by the erosion of personal privacy and, therefore, the constant need to be vigilant. DNA samples can affect the ability to get health insurance or a job, perhaps in future the right to travel or drive. BUT, we can assume that the bad guys will still be able to operate under the radar. New cell phones are already an invasion of privacy as they contain a GPS locating device, but someone who is mugged can also regard this as an advantage.
In Law the issue is called the Precautionary Principle. It comes from international Environmental Law and allows legal action to prevent a catastrophe; it has been used as a justification for preemptive strikes, also preventative detainments of potential terrorists. This principle can be used to introduce curtailment of individual freedom for the common good, however there should be a formula whereby a justifiable suspension of rights under certain critical circumstances is done under strict time limitations.
[Editor's note: "The precautionary principle is the idea that if the consequences of an action are unknown, but are judged to have some potential for major or irreversible negative consequences, then it is better to avoid that action. The principle can alternately be applied in an active sense, through the concept of "preventative anticipation" or a willingness to take action in advance of scientific proof of evidence of the need for the proposed action on the grounds that further delay will prove ultimately most costly to society and nature, and, in the longer term, selfish and unfair to future generations. In practice, the principle is most often applied in the context of the impact of human civilization or new technology on the environment, as the environment is a complex system where the consequences of some kinds of actions are often unpredictable." wikipedia. Precautionary_principle]
Notes by Herb Bercovits
Editor: Diana Thébaud Nicholson
Long-term fallout from the Gomery Commission
JACQUES CLÉMENT'S REPORT ON THE ECONOMY
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