Read About W-N NP story on W-N Contact W-N & Map Wednesday Night Salon #1246 Jan 18th 2006 Page 2 Nortel Mr. Martin OWNership and the Group of Seven Under the skillful direction of Peter Trent OWN, the senior member of the Order of Wednesday Night, the Committee of the Whole (all members in good standing) has carefully scrutinized nominations, consulted and submitted to the Chairman and Leader of the Opposition (Mouse) the names of 7 new Inductees, namely: Richard Bruno, Marie Cormier, Jeremy Jonas, Ron Meisels, David Oliver, Judith Patterson and Peter Perkins. Instructions to the Committee of the Whole indicated that: "Nominees need not be frequent attendees. Nomination to the Order is recognition of the quality of their contributions, both to debate and to the expansion of the Wednesday Night audience. Furthermore, as demonstrated by a recent entry, the Order of Wednesday Night is recognized as an honour by Who's Who in Canada, therefore it is incumbent on the Committee of the Whole to select candidates of upstanding nature and moral fibre (or some semblance thereof)." Although the formal induction will be held on Wednesday, January 25, Peter Perkins OWN, who will be away, was warmly welcomed to this outstanding group by the chairman, Leader of the Loyal Opposition, a number of OWNers and his fellow nominees, Canon David Oliver and Marie Cormier. www.flickr.com More of davidnicholson's photos tagged with Wed1246 Wed 1246 slide show The Election campaign draws to a close The election is taking place in the midst of the Venus retrograde cycle, which happens every 19 months. The June 2004 election fell during this period, and, if the pattern continues we should be going to the polls again in August 2007. As a rule, retrograde planets presage a period of seemingly inevitable or fated events, which relate to their sphere of influence. …Since Venus rules diplomacy, slowdowns in all sorts of negotiations can be expected, including industrial disputes, legal issues and diplomatic endeavours. (And politics?) In the very few remaining days before the coming election, the question is will Québec, as it has traditionally done, be the bellwether, leading the sheep, or simply follow the trend? In either event, it appears that there could be a strong francophone federalist vote in Québec for the Conservatives. Even as the Conservative candidates gain steam, the situation remains fluid and few are prepared to predict with near certainty, a minority, if not a majority Conservative government. Interestingly, Jack Layton’s plea for traditional N.D.P. voters to remain loyal to that party in the face of a probable Conservative victory appears to be heeded and it is even likely that some disgruntled traditional Liberal supporters will vote N.D.P. In contrast to previous elections, the Conservatives have run a tight, well-organized campaign while the traditionally highly organized Liberals have made basic errors in judgment (notably those dreadful attack ads and the inexplicable volte face on the Notwithstanding Clause) and placed themselves in a vulnerable position. As the probability of a previously unanticipated Conservative sweep appears more certain, some mention is being made of the influence of the Calgary School a group of neo-conservative, pro-west, pro-American scholars which was chaired by Roger Gibbins when Stephen Harper was at the University of Calgary. Mr Gibbins is now the President of the Canada West Foundation. The Calgary School is alleged to have influenced the Social Credit and Reform parties as well as the current Conservative campaign, presumably in the interest of increasing U.S. influence in Canadian government and economy. Conservative supporters point out that even if that were the case, the nature of Canadian politics is such that any transition would be slow and visible. Westmount – Ville-Marie An interesting transformation has quietly taken place in Westmount over the years. Regarded for decades as an Anglo-Saxon bastion, Westmount has been slowly, almost imperceptibly, transformed into a multilingual, multicultural community, with a Francophone population of approximately twenty percent and a growing number of allophone citizens. Since redistribution, which has increased the diversity as well as the size of the population, the City of Westmount now represents a mere eighteen percent of the Ville-Marie constituency. The new western boundaries of the riding extend 11 streets into eastern N.D.G. with its diverse population that includes moderate income, informed, intelligent, aware, dedicated voters supporting the Green Party, the Bloc, the N.D.P. as well as the traditional front-runners. American views Several Wednesday Nighters who travel to the U.S. on a regular basis note that despite close personal ties between Canadians and Americans there appears to be a general resentment in the U.S. arising from Canada's lack of support for the Iraq war and very different policies towards such issues as same sex marriage, abortion, Kyoto and gun control. It does not help that the Liberals have long recognized that a certain anti-American stance is popular with many Canadian voters. [Editor's note: see recent piece in the Christian Science Monitor, "Open season on the US in Canadian elections"news.yahoo.com/s/csm/], nor that many Canadians, including a number of media stars, genuinely do not like the direction in which the Bush Administration has been leading the U.S. World outlook The most worrisome situation today is the confrontation with Iran over nuclear power (see: "Iran: Origins of the nuclear dispute" Financial Times ) Israel has expressed growing alarm about Iran's nuclear program since late October, when the Iranian president called for the Jewish state to be "wiped off the map". More recently, Israel has stated that it is preparing for military action against Iran's nuclear facilities if diplomacy fails. The concern is that Iran in 2006 is very different from Iraq of 1981. While the military option exists, it is unlikely that a clean surgical strike could destroy nuclear capability and quell the desire of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to restore 14th century Islamic hegemony across Western Europe. It was noted that the Americans and British made an error in judgment prior to the 2005 elections in Iran [see BBC in-depth analysis ], believing that the strong student, women's and academia groups would be able to exercise moderating influence over the election outcome and future policies. No-one believed that the mullahs would blatantly rig the elections and pursue aggressive nuclear expansion. Economic Outlook The stock markets have had a few nervous days and there will be some more. Most markets have gone up a lot for some time so people are getting nervous, but that will pass and they will pick up again. Following the long upward trend, it is time for a rest, but following the election, Canada is well poised for a stronger market. International investors will likely react positively whatever the outcome of the election, - Conservative majority or Conservative minority. In fact, things have been going well around the world and should continue to do so. An indicator of the continuation of this trend is long-term bond rates, which tend to be low. There should be a period of gradual increase in interest rates by Bank of Canada, only because there is no reason to keep them at current low rates. As always, the image of an extended positive outlook for the economy might be interrupted by such unpredictable events as the predicted Avian Influenza pandemic or a sharp rise in prices because of the curtailment of supply of petroleum (very different from rising demand), or other unforeseeable catastrophic events. Notes by Herb Bercovitz OWN Editor: Diana Thébaud Nicholson OWN Radio, the long-lasting treasure www.flickr.com what is this? This is a Flickr badge showing public photos from davidnicholson tagged with Wed1244a. Make your own badge here. Diana Nicholson Arctic exploration In keeping with the subject of climate change and scientific research, one new guest spoke about a new small (60' long) oceanographic boat that is being developed for Arctic exploration, noting that 2007 has been declared the Year of the Arctic. The prototype, built in France, is spending the winter in a Montreal area marina, undergoing tests for endurance of cold and ice. Students, the public and scientists will be able to monitor the boat's voyages in the Arctic on the Internet, thus expanding their knowledge of the effects of climate change on Canada's North. Long-term fallout from the Gomery Commission JACQUES CLÉMENT'S REPORT ON THE ECONOMY Jacques Clément's forecast January 24, 2007- for next three months CANADA After losing 564 points (December 14 - January 10), the T.S.X. has recovered over 550 points since, including over 300 points in the last two days and is 11 points away from its December 14 record of 13,022. Crude oil, which traded at $50½ U.S. on January 16, a twenty month low and declining 17% year to date, has recovered to $55½ U.S. on the U.S. doubling the size of their strategic petroleum reserves to 1.5 billion barrels in the months ahead as well as rising tensions in Nigeria and Iran, OPEC cutting production on February 1 and colder weather outlook. Natural gas has rebounded. Gold has also recovered $41.00 since January 6 to over $648.00 U.S, as the U.S. dollar weakened from $1.29 U.S. to over $1.30 U.S. against the Euro. Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at 4¼% on January 16, with retail sales declining close to 2% (September-October). Inflation increased moderately in the last two months of the year to 1.6%. Core inflation declined to 2%. Bank of Canada expects the C.P.I. to remain very moderate this year, assuming $56.00-$58.00 U.S. crude prices in the first half and $61.00 U.S. in the second half and a Canadian dollar at 84½¢ cents U.S. to 87½¢ trading range. They have revised the fourth quarter G.D.P. down sharply from 2.8% to 1.5% following 1.7% growth in the third quarter. The outlook for the first half this year appears optimistic at 2.5% as they are looking for 2%-2½% growth in the U.S. for the same period. Manufacturing shipments have rebounded 2½% in October-November, new orders 4.8%, unfilled orders by 2.8% and inventories rose moderately. Inventories remain high, particularly in manufacturing (auto sector) and housing. Productivity continues to be weak. Exports recovered almost 3% in November. The Canadian dollar reached a fourteen month low on Monday. Hourly wages have eased to 2½%-3½%, from 3½%-4% in the fall. Consumer demand will remain strong as is the tight labour market. Housing will be negative on the G.D.P. this year. Housing starts tumbled almost 8% in December. Bank of Canada might have to ease policy before mid-year. U.S. The Dow-Jones closed today at a new record high of 12,622 despite the severe run-up of crude prices and higher commodity prices. Corporate profits growth is expected at over 9½% with price- earnings ratio of 15.5. G.D.P. for the fourth quarter is now expected at over 3% given the rebound in manufacturing, better housing numbers since November, strong fourth quarter employment, a three year high in Michigan consumer sentiment, inflation (December) growing at the slowest pace in three years, fairly strong consumer spending (+1½% in November-December), record exports leading to a decline of 8½ % in the trade deficits to $58 billion, a 50% reduction in the fiscal deficit (three years ahead of target) and a rise in December leading economic indicators, particularly in construction activities, real money supply, record stock market, vendor performance and manufacturing, excluding defence. Bank of Canada has revised down to 3%, the U.S. non-inflationary growth potential. With core inflation unchanged at 2.6% in December, the Federal reserve should keep its Fed Funds steady at 5¼% when they meet for two days next week. They are likely to ease in the third quarter. Outlook: Jan 10th click for video to Wed1299 24 Jan 07 Near Term Trading Outlook: Canadian Dollar: 84¢ U.S. – 85¢ U.S. Euro: : $1.29 U.S. - $1.31 U.S. Crude Oil : $53.00 - $57.00 Dow-Jones: D.J.: 13,500 – 12,700 The T.S.X : 13,000 – 13,250 Gold:- futurs: $635.00 U.S. - $650.00 U.S. intro Wed1246 | Wed1246 slide show intro Wed1246 | Wed1246 slide show Oil Diana Nicholson OWN slides | hands | all | & Louise 3-M slides | albums | all David Mitchell OWN slides | Album Sam Stein slides | album John Curtin slides | Abum Chris Lowery slides | Album Robert Gervais slides | Album Ex Candidate Bio | Blog pre2post.com/ web hosting Robert Galbraith Robert | album All his | albums Gerald Ratzer OWN Canon David Oliver OWN slides Album Beryl Wajsman Beryl wn home slides Album Brian Mitchell slides Album Sherie St.Lawrence slides Album Beryl Wajsman slides Album UNITED STATES Current Beige Book Oct 19, 2005 Fed reports growth in 11 of 12 regions Beige Book: Retail mixed, jobs improve, price pressure up Note Wednesday-Night creates charts and follows stocks, including timely related financial news items, in which Wednesday Nighters are interested and in order to demonstrate a service that could eventually be developed and marketed. Wednesday Nighters are invited to participate and help to test the service. see WN Flip charts QUOTES of the EVENING from recent Wednesday Nights 2006 From #1246 18 Jan Harper clearly struck a chord in French Canada when he stated that 'it is not a crime to speak out in favor of federalism in Québec' Anything can happen in the next 4 days The Liberals have not had a good campaign … It’s not the candidate, it’s the national campaign The question is how does a minority government play out and what kinds of people are effective in a minority government It’s the first time we see (the probability of) a minority government without the N.D.P. being wiped off the map … The N.D.P. will provide a reasoned voice The promises made in this election make Jack Layton look like a piker I think that Harper will be so touched (by the support he has had here) that he will treat Québec in a special way This Riding (Westmount –Ville Marie) is becoming more Blociste each year The west end (of Westmount Ville-Marie riding) … not old stock Anglophone, Francophone … needs an internationalist (representative) What I found out about Westmount … (is that) our riding is abused by parachuted candidates We have gone beyond an Anglo enclave to a … typically Canadian community” (It is) not only a question of platform, but (of) individuals The fundamentals of the global economy are pretty favourable Whether you believe it or not, markets believe that we have a long period of low inflation ahead of us. As long as the bond market believes that there is a period of low inflation, the likelihood, is we will have it.” Bank of Canada will slowly raise rates to more normal level because there is no logical reason to continue them low Avian flu is a risk factor (for the economy) but an unlikely risk factor They can’t get around that Canadians were against the Iraq war. What Americans want is for Canada to be with them From #1245 11 Jan Reduction in taxes is always good for the country We like to think that voting is rational, but it is mostly emotional If push came to shove, I would prefer to put my faith in the great unwashed than in the intellectuals I am more in fear of enlightened despotism From #1245 11 Jan Charest has no economic policy – 14 major international syndicates have pulled out of Quebec since he was elected – there are no partners, no money and 40,000 jobs at stake Let's not forget that the best speech given at the 1968 Liberal Convention was delivered by J.J. Greene [http://www.agr.gc.ca/bios/index_e.php?page=greene ] The great national practice in this country is falling over ourselves. Everything they do in the U.S. (according to the Americans) is right. Canada should acquire some of the self-confidence (evident) in the States. Canada is still one of the better places to live (The problem with our politicians is that) the buck does not stop here. It stops somewhere else ... Maybe we should think about a presidential system It’s not the political system but the cultural system that holds us back Voice radio was invented by Reginald Fessenden a Quebecker from Knowlton [Editor's note: if you don't believe it, see: http://142.206.72.67/03/03d/03d_supp/03d_supp_002_e.htm] 2005 From #1243 28 Dec At what point does it stop – when they have your fingerprints? When they have your DNA? When they have all your credit card information? see 57 min - Feb 19, 2006 Charlie Rose - A wide-ranging hour-long conversation with author Michael Crichton. His latest book is "Next". The question is: what compromises to our rights are we willing to accept in order to prevent a catastrophic event? I don't think there is any distinction in these decisions (on States' Rights) between politics and Law It will be a slight majority Liberal government If it were a minority conservative government there might be a slightly negative effect on the Canadian dollar The Gulf states will be producing oil by March The ghettoization of immigrants in Toronto is one of the most serious contributing factors to the violence Past Quotes Best or All Mouse bio see Diana show hands | RJG | Album Herb Bercovitz OWN Galbraith imges his page See slides | Album and Art slides | Album more Art chiizu W-N Links for #1246 a NewYorker Cartoon every 30 sec. see w-n Right Menu => Harper's | Home w-n 1181 Album | Albums 2006 Notes for #1246 mp3 Beryl rants again from Wed 1158 more DTN photos Click image for next picture | back up slides | albums | Ex Candidate | Bio | Blog pre2post.com/ web hosting Thursday Jan 5, 2006 fp PRIME NUMBERS: INDIA OUTSMARTS CHINA By Diana Farrell The race between China and India is reshaping the global economy. But for all the benefits of China’s swift rise, India’s brain power has it poised to take the lead. Hi Diana and Louise I just turned on the radio and caught the end of a CBC programme on advertising. An illustration was offered. Enjoy. A Belgian cell phone company had a TV ad in which a 'person' was speaking; then they removed 20% of the brain and he spoke in a barely intelligible way. Another 20% was removed and it was just gibberish. Then another 20% was removed it sounded like a monkey. Finally another 20% of the brain was removed and..... you heard the voice of George Bush! I don't know if it would sell phones but it certainly would attract attention. bon weekend David WN on Privacy Canadian dollar vs euro | Dow 30 w-n chart | TSX Paul Martin see also wn MedicalNotes Would you like to       Schedules - Radio + Television   the Computer Box Click Here To Add Wed1246page2.asp To Your Favorites More Info About... Read Cookie for Site Please click here to see new/updated pages since last visit www.iedm.org/ coming Events Isobelle Brackstone Wed 1244 Jan 4th, 2006 with Diana intro [god son] slides on Kirby & wife Isobelle Brackstone & Canadian politics Me Allan Mass OWN also Guy Versailles U.S. market watchdog looking into income trust affair David Mitchell on Trade talks: key issues Immagration Robert Travers on China versus India Helen Audren & Louise des Trois Maisons , Beryl P. Wajsman see google WN on Sharon and Israel see also Notes by Herb Bercovits on camera Kirby & click for Wed1244 Report | Wed1244 photos by © Robert J Galbraith | & Wed1244a by DTN click for Wed1234 Report | Wed1234 photos Wed1245report Wed1246invite Wed1247 invite The views above are neither those of the authors nor the owner of the website, but merely reflect discussions that took place on a this evening