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Read About W-N Wednesday Night Salon
Nortel
Mr. Martin
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A spirited discussion of the economy, with some surprising interventions and remarks; Martin agreeing with Ron – without doubt a milestone (or would that be millstone?). A warm thank-you to the once (Twice? Thrice?) Mayor Peter and welcome to the four new members of the OWN. Note that two of the Group of Seven were with us last week and one (Richard Bruno) will only be with us in a couple of weeks, thus underlining the fluid nature of Wednesday Nights. A high turnout of Wednesday Nighters who have not been present for some time and a thank you to all for making Wednesday Night what it is
The Induction of the Magnificent Seven
As indicated in the invitation, the Committee of the Whole had worked diligently under the direction of Peter Trent to select seven nominees to the Order of Wednesday Night. Four of the Group of Seven: Marie Cormier, Jeremy Jonas, Ron Meisels and Judith Patterson, were present and welcomed formally into the distinguished company by a number of their peers. Peter Trent presided with a certain tongue-in-cheekiness over the solemn occasion, during which he read the individual citations of three of the nominees. The presentation of the fourth nominee was reserved for John Jonas OWN who read the citation for his son Jeremy, the first second-generation OWNer, who by virtue of this distinction has been appointed President of the Youth Wing of the Order.
Wednesday Night Recognizes Its OWN
By Marilynn VanderstayThe membership of Wednesday Night, the salon held weekly in Westmount in the home of David and Diana Nicholson, recognized its own recently with the presentation of its coveted citation, the Order of Wednesday Night.
Co-founder Diana explained to the guests before the investitures that although the Order of Wednesday Night is now recognized as an honour by Who's Who in Canada, it is given “tongue in cheeky” with more emphasis on the fun of the presentation than on its seriousness.
This season the OWN nominees are an eclectic seven members who, in the estimation of the search committee, in which the Nicholsons themselves have no say, had earned the recognition by virtue of the quality of a member’s contributions, both to debate and to the expansion and diversification of the Wednesday Night participants. In essence the recipients are chosen by their peers.
The inductees were Richard Bruno, Marie Cormier, Jeremy Lee Jonas, Ron Meisels, Canon David Oliver; Judith Patterson, Peter Perkins. Former mayor Peter Trent, the chair of the search committee (the "Committee of the Whole"), read each award before co-founder David Nicholson pinned each recipient with the special OWN pin.
Dr. Richard Bruno is Montreal's, if not Canada’s, inventor/entrepreneur extraordinaire who among many other accomplishments invented the compact disc or CD as the world has come to know it. Having launched four dozen products, on which he holds 17 patents, and started seven and sold six companies, Bruno recently left McGill as Director of the Office of Technology Transfer and last week he commenced his position as senior venture partner with MSBI Capital, the largest seed fund for new entrepreneurial companies in Quebec. He was inducted into the OWN in recognition of his consistent efforts to encourage and develop creative technological and scientific endeavors, his commitment to excellence, and the consistently high level of information, experience and intellectual challenge he contributes to Wednesday Night. Honoured that he had been chosen to receive the distinction, Bruno said that he was happy he had made a difference in the community. “If I can continue to contribute to communities I will be a happy camper. I am honoured the committee thought of me.”
Marie Cormier is a corporate lawyer with a provincial financial institution. She was recognized for her many years of quiet wisdom and knowledgeable interventions on a range of legal and financial topics and for her serene way of taking charge when the need arised.
Jeremy Lee Jonas is one of the youngest members of Wednesday Night and is the first second-generation member (apart from the Nicholsons' daughter, Fiona, and son, Marc), having first been introduced by his parents John and Holly Jonas. His recognition for the OWN came from his active participation and by introducing his peers to the salon. “Over the five years I have brought 20 new, mostly younger, faces to Wednesday Night,” he said. Of those, four or five have become regulars and another four or five visit intermittently. Professionally Jonas is an entrepreneur in the process of buying a business.
P&C Holdings President Ron Meisels is an industry veteran. A private investor since 1963 and a technical analyst since 1965, he is the President of P&C but more importantly personally, he says, is a contributor to www.n-amarketletter.com “When I first received Diana’s email my reaction was Groucho Marx' line ‘I wouldn’t be a member of a club that would have me as a member.’ It is a wonderful award and I have nothing to do but accept. It is unbelievable what the Nicholsons have done,” said Meisels, who has attended Wednesday Nights since 1982. “To have such a flow of ideas from one person to another in such a friendly surrounding, knowing you can talk confidentially among your peers is just wonderful.”
Westmount’s own Canon David Oliver not only received the OWN but was also appointed as Wednesday Night’s Chaplain in the (perhaps) vain hope that he could provide a direct link to Wisdom
Dr. Judith Patterson is an associate professor at Concordia University where she lectures in Environmental Science and Geology. Her areas of research include the end of cheap oil and the impact on the aviation industry. A newerWednesday Nighter, she said, “When I received the email from Diana I couldn’t believe it. I was really humbled and honoured by the award.”
Peter Perkins is a global investment strategist and one of the managing editors for Daily Insights published by BCA Research that provides analysis of the global economy and equity, fixed-income and currency markets. “It is great to be honoured by such a recognized institution in the Montreal community that hosts such prominent individuals. Debate and discussion are such an important part of communication and Wednesday Night is an important institution.”
Every Wednesday night since 1982 David and Diana Nicholson have hosted the evening of discussion at their home. Wednesday Nights have become an institution in Westmount and beyond. The number of guests has grown from a small handful of Montreal residents to a list of over 10,000. A guest may arrive on a visit from literally anywhere in the world; no place is too far away or too obscure. As the topics have evolved, so have the professions and interests represented around the Nicholsons’ table. Attendance is by invitation.
The economy
With a number of participants who vied for the dubious honour of being among the longest-standing (or sitting) Wednesday Nighters, this evening returned to Wednesday Night's roots as an Economic Salon. There was unusually lively debate among the experts, with no lack of contradictory, if not contrarian, opinions.
This, the final leg of the current prolonged bull market is predicted to last most, if not all, of 2006, with the T.S.X. achieving the 14,000 level by the end of the year. This prediction of a Wednesday Nighter with an admittedly unassailable forecasting record, is tempered by others with observations as well as trepidations, a sign that bears, viruses and other creatures, lie in the dark eagerly awaiting their ultimate return. It is estimated that this bull has between one-eighth and one-quarter of its course to run before it collapses and dies, having lived a long, fruitful life until that moment.
Aside from Washington (D.C.), there is a slowdown in housing in the U.S., notably New York and Boston and parts of the Far West. There is some evidence that North America is following England and Australia, where prices are now stabilized, but have come down.
The Canadian housing market, with the exception of Toronto, has weakened. In Montreal, the anticipated January emergence from hibernation of real estate sales has simply not occurred. In an apparent fruitless attempt to ward off the inevitable, some are said to be re-mortgaging their homes in order to maintain an otherwise unsustainable lifestyle. If so, they will suffer doubly when housing prices drop as anticipated.
The prevailing but certainly not universal view of Wednesday Nighters is that Ben Bernanke’s policy will provide a seamless extension of those set by his predecessor and that his proposed adoption of a policy of inflation targets is positive. At current and proposed levels, increases in interest rates will have a minimal effect on the population. There is an expectation that the U.S. economy will slow down in the second half of this year as Europe recovers. It is in 2007 that we will have a difficult time with global growth.
In the world beyond North America, one of the most interesting developments is the recent announcement that China is producing a surplus of electricity, which, according to some, could lead to an impact on energy prices.
Iraq aside, there are enough possibilities that oil prices may come down possibly to the mid-forties later this year. To some observers, there is still life in the European economy, but there are deep structural problems. The Japanese fiscal situation is disastrous which could well mean real inflation in Japan, leading to outflows of wealth. The core issue in the U.S. is that a lot of things are going right.
Even the most accurate, positive predictions are subject to imponderables, the most current being H5N1. Between one hundred and fifty and one hundred and sixty cases of avian flu have been identified around the world, causing eighty-two deaths. It is difficult to assess the probability of a pandemic or the capacity of the population and governments to meet it, but governments as well as people are subject to the paralysis of panic. The spectre of the 1918-1919 Spanish flu pandemic keeps arising as does the U.S. [failed] reaction to Katrina. Since early October, the President of the U.S. has the power to quarantine whole cities, a thought that is not reassuring to many people. The slow and totally unacceptable response to Katrina is still fresh in the minds of North Americans. The pandemic may not be imminent, but wars, insurgencies and natural disasters are all possible if not predictable.
The election
The Canadian election holds a fascination for Wednesday Nighters, mostly positive. With all parties requiring about a year and a half to two years to regroup and to refinance, another election is not expected for another year and a half to two years. In fact, the current government may be thought of as operating in a perpetual pre-election mode. The Bloc is expected to support Harper, but will exact a heavy toll for that support.
Frank McKenna has offered his resignation as Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. While viewed as some as a bid for leadership of the Liberal Party, it is just as likely that he has merely acted in a responsible, diplomatic manner. As a Liberal government appointee [not a career diplomat], he can no longer claim to be certain to have the ear and confidence of the current Conservative government.
The proposed decrease in the G.S.T. is seen as largely symbolic as, with the exception of large ticket items, the effect will hardly be noticed, inflation more than counteracting the proposed change. Of far greater significance is the deferment of capital gains tax provided that the proceeds are invested within six months. It appears that the Conservatives are also proposing removal of the step-up tax on assets given to endowments, which could have important medium and long-term effects on donations to education and healthcare insitutions.
Grand finale
The conclusion of the evening was also a reversion to the pattern of earlier Wednesday Nights which often included a musical portion with the likes of Peter Trent and Misha Crnobrjna on guitar, John Ciaccia at the piano and a variety of voices ranging from our favorite opera diva, Susan Eyton-Jones to somewhat lesser (though no less enthusiastic) talents. In celebration of Westmount's return to independent civic status, newly elected Council Member George Bowser and Peter Trent joined in a rousing rendition of George's recent composition Westmount Begins With We, 14 verses long, written for the Jan 1 celebration of Westmount's return to its status of independent municipality, followed by The Old Mil Rate, a bittersweet reminder that all is not as it was before. [Editor's Note: We also note that WEdnesday begins with WE and wonder if George Bowser might, between duties as City Councillor, turn his attention to this happy coincidence]
And the last word from Ron Meisels OWN
Without the two of you, Diana and David, there would be no Wednesday Night, no place to go to on Wednesday Night, no Salon [or saloon], no place to meet people and discuss. Thank you for putting this on, for bearing with us for all these years, for providing a place where we meet and make friends with people whom we would probably never have met [or wanted to?].
Notes by Herb Bercovitz OWN Editor: Diana Thébaud Nicholson OWN
Radio, the long-lasting treasure
 Diana Nicholson |
In keeping with the subject of climate change and scientific research, one new guest spoke about a new small (60' long) oceanographic boat that is being developed for Arctic exploration, noting that 2007 has been declared the Year of the Arctic. The prototype, built in France, is spending the winter in a Montreal area marina, undergoing tests for endurance of cold and ice. Students, the public and scientists will be able to monitor the boat's voyages in the Arctic on the Internet, thus expanding their knowledge of the effects of climate change on Canada's North.
Long-term fallout from the Gomery Commission
JACQUES CLÉMENT'S REPORT ON THE ECONOMY
Jacques Clément's forecast
January 24, 2007- for next three months
CANADA
After losing 564 points (December 14 - January 10), the T.S.X. has recovered over 550 points since, including over 300 points in the last two days and is 11 points away from its December 14 record of 13,022. Crude oil, which traded at $50½ U.S. on January 16, a twenty month low and declining 17% year to date, has recovered to $55½ U.S. on the U.S. doubling the size of their strategic petroleum reserves to 1.5 billion barrels in the months ahead as well as rising tensions in Nigeria and Iran, OPEC cutting production on February 1 and colder weather outlook. Natural gas has rebounded. Gold has also recovered $41.00 since January 6 to over $648.00 U.S, as the U.S. dollar weakened from $1.29 U.S. to over $1.30 U.S. against the Euro. Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at 4¼% on January 16, with retail sales declining close to 2% (September-October). Inflation increased moderately in the last two months of the year to 1.6%. Core inflation declined to 2%. Bank of Canada expects the C.P.I. to remain very moderate this year, assuming $56.00-$58.00 U.S. crude prices in the first half and $61.00 U.S. in the second half and a Canadian dollar at 84½¢ cents U.S. to 87½¢ trading range. They have revised the fourth quarter G.D.P. down sharply from 2.8% to 1.5% following 1.7% growth in the third quarter. The outlook for the first half this year appears optimistic at 2.5% as they are looking for 2%-2½% growth in the U.S. for the same period. Manufacturing shipments have rebounded 2½% in October-November, new orders 4.8%, unfilled orders by 2.8% and inventories rose moderately. Inventories remain high, particularly in manufacturing (auto sector) and housing. Productivity continues to be weak. Exports recovered almost 3% in November. The Canadian dollar reached a fourteen month low on Monday. Hourly wages have eased to 2½%-3½%, from 3½%-4% in the fall. Consumer demand will remain strong as is the tight labour market. Housing will be negative on the G.D.P. this year. Housing starts tumbled almost 8% in December. Bank of Canada might have to ease policy before mid-year.
U.S.
The Dow-Jones closed today at a new record high of 12,622 despite the severe run-up of crude prices and higher commodity prices. Corporate profits growth is expected at over 9½% with price- earnings ratio of 15.5. G.D.P. for the fourth quarter is now expected at over 3% given the rebound in manufacturing, better housing numbers since November, strong fourth quarter employment, a three year high in Michigan consumer sentiment, inflation (December) growing at the slowest pace in three years, fairly strong consumer spending (+1½% in November-December), record exports leading to a decline of 8½ % in the trade deficits to $58 billion, a 50% reduction in the fiscal deficit (three years ahead of target) and a rise in December leading economic indicators, particularly in construction activities, real money supply, record stock market, vendor performance and manufacturing, excluding defence. Bank of Canada has revised down to 3%, the U.S. non-inflationary growth potential. With core inflation unchanged at 2.6% in December, the Federal reserve should keep its Fed Funds steady at 5¼% when they meet for two days next week. They are likely to ease in the third quarter.
Outlook: Jan 10th
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Near Term Trading Outlook:
- Canadian Dollar: 84¢ U.S. – 85¢ U.S.
- Euro: : $1.29 U.S. - $1.31 U.S.
Crude Oil : $53.00 - $57.00 - Dow-Jones: D.J.: 13,500 – 12,700
- The T.S.X : 13,000 – 13,250
- Gold:- futurs: $635.00 U.S. - $650.00 U.S.
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Oil
UNITED STATES Current Beige Book
Oct 19, 2005 Fed reports growth in 11 of 12 regions Beige Book: Retail mixed, jobs improve, price pressure upNote
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QUOTES of the EVENING from recent
Wednesday Nights2006
From #1247 25 Jan
- The Japanese fiscal situation is a disaster
- Chinese banks are now good for investment … China is a frontier economy
- Oil price is twenty-five percent psychology. In tough times, the psychology changes
- There are deep structural problems in Europe. Core issues in Europe are the same (as they are in the U.S.) and the core issue in the U.S. is that things go right in the U.S
- It (the proposed reduction in G.S.T.) is symbolic
- The houses illustrating the drop in prices all seem to have palm trees in front of them
From #1246 18 Jan
- Harper clearly struck a chord in French Canada when he stated that 'it is not a crime to speak out in favor of federalism in Québec'
- Anything can happen in the next 4 days
- The Liberals have not had a good campaign … It’s not the candidate, it’s the national campaign
- The question is how does a minority government play out and what kinds of people are effective in a minority government
- It’s the first time we see (the probability of) a minority government without the N.D.P. being wiped off the map … The N.D.P. will provide a reasoned voice
- The promises made in this election make Jack Layton look like a piker
- I think that Harper will be so touched (by the support he has had here) that he will treat Québec in a special way
- This Riding (Westmount –Ville Marie) is becoming more Blociste each year
- The west end (of Westmount Ville-Marie riding) … not old stock Anglophone, Francophone … needs an internationalist (representative)
- What I found out about Westmount … (is that) our riding is abused by parachuted candidates
- We have gone beyond an Anglo enclave to a … typically Canadian community”
- (It is) not only a question of platform, but (of) individuals
- The fundamentals of the global economy are pretty favourable
- Whether you believe it or not, markets believe that we have a long period of low inflation ahead of us. As long as the bond market believes that there is a period of low inflation, the likelihood, is we will have it.”
- Bank of Canada will slowly raise rates to more normal level because there is no logical reason to continue them low
- Avian flu is a risk factor (for the economy) but an unlikely risk factor
- They can’t get around that Canadians were against the Iraq war. What Americans want is for Canada to be with them
From #1245 11 Jan
- Reduction in taxes is always good for the country
- We like to think that voting is rational, but it is mostly emotional
- If push came to shove, I would prefer to put my faith in the great unwashed than in the intellectuals
- I am more in fear of enlightened despotism
From #1245 11 Jan
- Charest has no economic policy – 14 major international syndicates have pulled out of Quebec since he was elected – there are no partners, no money and 40,000 jobs at stake
- Let's not forget that the best speech given at the 1968 Liberal Convention was delivered by J.J. Greene [http://www.agr.gc.ca/bios/index_e.php?page=greene ]
- The great national practice in this country is falling over ourselves. Everything they do in the U.S. (according to the Americans) is right. Canada should acquire some of the self-confidence (evident) in the States. Canada is still one of the better places to live
- (The problem with our politicians is that) the buck does not stop here. It stops somewhere else ... Maybe we should think about a presidential system
- It’s not the political system but the cultural system that holds us back
- Voice radio was invented by Reginald Fessenden a Quebecker from Knowlton [Editor's note: if you don't believe it, see: http://142.206.72.67/03/03d/03d_supp/03d_supp_002_e.htm]
2005
From #1243 28 Dec
- At what point does it stop – when they have your fingerprints? When they have your DNA? When they have all your credit card information?
- The question is: what compromises to our rights are we willing to accept in order to prevent a catastrophic event?
- I don't think there is any distinction in these decisions (on States' Rights) between politics and Law
- It will be a slight majority Liberal government
- If it were a minority conservative government there might be a slightly negative effect on the Canadian dollar
- The Gulf states will be producing oil by March
- The ghettoization of immigrants in Toronto is one of the most serious contributing factors to the violence
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2006 Notes for #1247
Dear David,
Congratulations on your inductees, and particularly for my very worthy former Erindale colleague, Judy Patterson, who was one of the best and most influential teachers at the University of Toronto in Mississauga.
Wednesdays have been inconvenient for me for quite a while. Yesterday I was speaking at Kent state and spent the night at the Cleveland Airport Sheraton before rising to join an endless queue on Thursday morning at 04.15h. Perhaps next week, if something falls through.
Des Morton
Thursday Jan 26, 2006 ts Harper's grand plan externally
Prime Minister-designate Stephen Harper has a big idea - he wants to refashion the country
January 26 2006 Mouse Frustrates Endangered Species Policy
Hallerman said Ramey's work reflects the Bush administration's intrusion of politics in its scientific research. "It seemed to me from the get-go, he wanted to find that this was not a taxonomically valid subspecies," Hallerman said.
Thursday Jan 26, 2006 ts
Frank McKenna, the perceived early frontrunner to replace outgoing Paul Martin as federal Liberal leader, resigned as ambassador to Washington Wednesday. Tim Harper reports.
McKenna released his letter of resignation last evening, but his decision was immediate, sources say.
January 24 2006 Wolfowitz under fire
The term of a World Bank presidency is an all-too-brief five years and the early months are frequently marred by sniping from the career staff who are more permanent fixtures. Because the post is filled by the nominee of the US president, a new chief often knows little about the organisation and takes time to make a mark. Almost eight months after taking up the role, Paul Wolfowitz has yet to set a course for his presidency and staff disquiet is reaching deafening levels.
The immediate cause of the turmoil at the World Bank is the appointment of an adviser to Mr Wolfowitz with close ties to the Republican party as the new director of the internal watchdog that investigates suspected fraud and staff misconduct. His choice has raised questions about the selection of someone so close to the president and whether this was the best person for such a sensitive post. But the ensuing strife has revealed widespread unhappiness among senior bank staff and executive directors over Mr Wolfowitz's management style and performance.
Wednesday Jan 25, 2006 U.S. Dec. existing home sales fall 5.7% to 6.60mln rate By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of existing homes in the United States fell 5.7% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.60 million, the lowest in nearly two years, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. Sales were much weaker than the 6.89 million expected by economists. Sales have fallen three months in a row. "Speculators are pulling out," said David Lereah, chief economist for the realtor group. Inventories of unsold homes fell 4.4% to 2.80 million in December, a 5.1-month supply. Median prices increased 10.5% year-on-year to $211,000 in December. For all of 2005, 7.072 million homes were sold, the fifth annual record in a row. Prices increased 12.7% in 2005 to $208,700.
Thursday Jan 26, 2006 ts Wine lovers' lament
Le Sélect Bistro's move sparks two-year tangle with bureaucracy
With the palm of his hand, Jean-Jacques Quinsac gently wipes the dust off a bottle of 1986 Château Lafite Rothschild. He gazes at the $1,200 specimen as though it were a newborn child.
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