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Wednesday Night Salon
#1259 Apr 19, 2006 Page 2
Introduction
Introduction
Appropriately for the 45th anniversary of the disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion [see also: for archival material released on the 40th anniversary] much of this evening's discussion related to Cuba.
Background
To many Canadians, U.S. policy on Cuba appears anachronistic and illogical. While on friendlier terms with several potentially more dangerous Latin American countries, where poverty and social conditions are as critical the United States remains at arm's length with communist Cuba. In order to understand the evolution, one must look at Fidel Castro’s accession to power [see Fidel: a critical portrait by Tad Szulc and although, personally, more an activist than Marxist, one must examine how he was influenced by Che Guevara and the U.S.S.R.
Castro, an activist during his student days, came to power at the age of thirty-three, a relatively immature man with a history of oppression. It is important to remember that Castro was and is a socialist and not a Marxist, unlike Che Guevara. Largely due to his brashness and inexperience, he was rebuffed by the West, mostly the U.S., and turned to the U.S.S.R. for support, constituting at that time, a real threat to the U.S. because Russia imposed on Cuba the installation of the missiles which led to the Cuban Missile Crisis . JFK understood that this was a Russian initiative and negotiated the stand-down directly with Khrushchev.
Guevara , an Argentinean physician encountered the poverty as a student that led him to believe that only revolution could mitigate the misery that he had witnessed throughout Latin America.
Che Guevara is dead and Cuba, though still a poor country, has evolved, but for reasons not clearly understood by many, the U.S. government has not seen it as being in its best interest to re-establish relations with Cuba. With free education and free health care, Cuba has made great strides in the scientific world, with Canada benefiting in some instances where the U.S. would likely, in other circumstances have been the main beneficiary.
A scientific breakthrough and a human success story,
Such is the case of an exciting breakthrough in the production of the first synthetic vaccine against pneumonia and meningitis, thanks to the collaborative efforts between Cuban scientists and Canadian Doctor Réné Roy and their respective universities.
The body’s response to bacterial invasion is the production of antibodies specifically designed to counteract the antigens produced by the bacteria. Vaccines stimulate the production of specific antibodies without causing the illness. Traditionally, vaccines are produced by culturing the bacterium or an attenuated form of the bacterium, usually in an egg, killing it, then injecting it in order to cause the body to produce the antibodies without undergoing the illness. While this usually works very well, there are instances of egg allergy, as well as the unforeseeable effects of injecting unnecessary bacterial debris such as biological and genetic material. The Cuban-Canadian team has successfully synthesized the pure antigen, leading to a much safer product. Contrary to what might be expected of a socialist government, while the clinical trials were still being conducted, the Cubans, showing a high degree of entrepreneurship, developed in parallel the production facilities for the vaccine, including certification from WHO.
An interesting aspect of this story is that thanks to the policy of the Cuban government and the personal philosophy of Dr. Roy, the vaccine is being produced at relatively low cost, with only small royalties paid to its patent holders, namely the universities and research investigators involved. Thus ensuring the widest possible distribution in the developing world. Had the inventors not patented the product, it is most likely that a large pharmaceutical company, taking advantage of a "first-to-file" patent jurisdiction would have adapted the process and sold the product at a much higher cost.
The economy
Echoing Martin Barnes' comments to the Financial Post, the IMF today published a hopeful report on the global economy predicting another year of GDP growth of nearly 5%. Especially good news is that as many of the best recent economic performances have been in developing countries, the benefits of expansion may be enjoyed by some of the world’s poorest
The stock market remains bullish, despite the skittishness of investors who, unused to a bull market of this length, look for signs of decline with each minor correction, or in the event of an unanticipated natural, political or terrorist-initiated disaster, or in the increasing price of petroleum. Interest rates remain low and commodity prices are rising. Insofar as the latter is concerned, the anticipated catastrophic effect of gasoline price increases never really came about at the thirty, forty, fifty or sixty dollar price level of crude, nor is it likely to at seventy, eighty or ninety dollars. Petroleum although great as raw material for the production of plastics, is really a very poor energy source. Human ingenuity remains strong and one can be confident that an alternative fuel will be found before the industrial world drops to its knees due to unacceptable prices or unmanageable world events.
In truth, although conventional wisdom would disagree, the world has become much more stable and although Greenwich remains the guardian of time and Paris, the repository of the standard metre, London and New York no longer claim the monopoly on world trade, so that the market can much more easily absorb the shock of a disaster in any part of the world as it has in the past. While it is probably true that a new terrorist attack on New York or London would provoke a greater reaction than in the past, repeated terrorist attacks appear to pass with hardly a glitch as they become more common. The only foreseeable perceivable serious effect would be the addition by the U.S. of still another additional layer of protective procedures, which could possibly impede the free exchange of goods and people.
In other words, the future still looks good for the market in Canada, while remaining reasonably cautious. Interest rates will probably rise modestly here, but not sufficiently to have an inflationary effect. Unsettling concerns include Nigeria, Iran, Israel and Palestine, and the possibility of civil war in Iraq; and in the more intermediate term, climate changes, inevitable in the absence of human sensitivity to what is happening in that area.
The U.S. economy [See also JACQUES CLÉMENT'S REPORT [1255]
]
In 2007 a trillion dollars worth of residential mortgages will come up for renewal in the U.S. in the face of increasing interest rates, decreasing personal savings rates and increasing debt repayment. Savings are negative for the first time since the great depression. The housing market has already been affected. New home sales have been declining and housing inventories are rising but so far, there is no sign of a bursting bubble.
Financial markets
On the financial markets, the bull market persists. It is interesting that with the market up eighteen hundred points, investors are bearish, recalling only the drops. After six years of generally strong growth, a bear market can be anticipated at the end of this year or in 2007. The fifteenth or seventeenth of this month should see a low which should be seen as a buying opportunity, followed by a recovery. Gold and oils should continue to rise.
Previous Videos
The economy
See JACQUES CLEMENT: REPORT ON THE ECONOMY
Notes by Herb Bercovitz OWN
Editor: Diana Thébaud Nicholson OWN
Radio, the long-lasting treasure
intro Wed1259 | Wed1259 slide show
Oil
Note
Wednesday-Night creates charts and follows stocks, including timely related financial news items, in which Wednesday Nighters are interested and in order to demonstrate a service that could eventually be developed and marketed. Wednesday Nighters are invited to participate and help to test the service.
see Wednesday-Night.com Flip charts
QUOTES of the EVENING from recent
Wednesday Nights
2006
-
From #1259 Apr 19th.
- I’m often bewildered by the U.S. criticism of the standard of living in Cuba. Most people in Latin America have a lower standard of living, for example, Mexico. I can’t understand why, from a political policy standpoint, U.S. policy is different for Cuba and the rest of Latin America
- Cuba has the highest ratio of physicians per capita and is training physicians from all over Latin American and much of the developing world
- I don’t know what is happening in Iran, but the world has been more stable in the last few years than it has for quite some time
- People are getting used to bombings and tsunamis. I think that people are getting angry and refuse to get upset
- Criminals go to jail; exalted criminals go to prison
- Oil is great for petrochemicals but is not very efficient as a fuel. We are an incredibly inventive bunch. Some other way will be found
- The U.S. remains the centre for investment in medical care. We learn from them
- Don’t you find it ironic that the U.S. government was elected by Cubans in Florida?
- If somebody steals your idea and you are depressed, it is because you don’t have other ideas
- A pandemic, yes, or terrorism will have a somewhat greater effect than last time. It is worth noting that it is better to have a strong China, Japan, South America and India than to have fewer strong economies. Diversity helps the global economy to absorb the shock.
- Many people will say there will be a scarcity of resources over the future and it is a good idea to be on good terms with the countries that have them
From #1258 Apr 12th.
From #1258 Apr 12th.
- Why has your accent grown thicker as your hair has grown thinner?
- Impact statements probably have less impact than we would guess
- What has happened to the Greek concept of Justice?
- The great thing about being Israeli is that you can do what you want because you are already hated by most of the world
- The Liberal Party has nothing to do with democracy – it is dictatorial and top-down
- I would argue that St. Paul was the author of the Christian Magna Carta (Epistle to the Galacians)
From #1257 Apr 5th.
- “Diagnosis is not just pattern recognition.”
- “If you’re a small country next to a giant, it’s politically expedient to exaggerate the differences and grievances.”
From #1256 Mar 29th
- There is an age at which you should learn that life is not fair
- I have the impression that there is something deeper, that is, the law ( in France to permit the unrestrained dismissal of young employees within two years of hiring) seems to be a totally different approach to the past; that is that the corporation is not there to serve the interest of the nation
- I would feel much better if countries built dispute regulation institutions based on the rule of law
- If they (illegal immigrants) were not there, the economy would suffer
From #1255 Mar 22nd
- (Stephen) Harper is going to surprise you. There is a lot of paranoia around him
- What is unique about Montreal and Québec is that there is a realization that Bombardier is driving Montreal
- As important as the arts are, the government will recognize that the arts don’t drive the economy
From #1254 Mar 15th
- The successes (of the Charest government) were overwhelmed by a bunch of small items
- The real clash will come when promised pensions cannot be paid
- Banks have become so concerned about wealth management that they have forgotten people without wealth
From #1253 Mar 8th
- Stocks cannot bail out pension funds. In the long term, the market goes up to reflect the increase in resources in the economy
- The problem with demography is that it not only takes a long time to recognize it, but longer to fix it
- India will become one of the three points of the world compass
- Many people tend to think that everything is separate from everything else, but how can we keep growing the economic pie with a shrinking demographic situation. If there is no prosperity, there won’t be anything to distribute … we have to keep creating wealth
From #1252 Mar 1st
- It is against the self-interest of pharmaceutical companies to provide low-cost drugs
- We’re sympathetic to a Canadian who loses his job to someone in China. Africans deserve the same consideration
- For 30 years we have allowed African agriculture to rot
- Money is power, distribution is power. What is most frustrating is how you move from sympathy to implementation
- The best measures we have (in aid to Africans) are little projects, modern equipment, where the social fabric is maintained
- The principal activity (in many parts of Africa) is going to funerals. Doctors, nurses, teachers are dying
- In the end, everyone has the belief (in Canada) that they will be treated and they are treated
- How many jobs do you know of where an individual with 30 years of experience is paid exactly the same amount as the new graduate? This is the case for doctors here
- My sense is that there is probably enough money to make the (healthcare) system work, but there isn't enough management to do so
- Let's not forget that the best speech given at the 1968 Liberal Convention was delivered by J.J. Greene [www.agr.gc.ca/bios/]
- Voice radio was invented by Reginald Fessenden a Quebecker from Knowlton [Editor's note: if you don't believe it, see: 03d_supp_002_e.htm]
Past Quotes Best or All
W-N Links for #1259
nyt Audio Clips: (mp3)
• 'Blue Rondo à la Turk' by Dave Brubeck
• 'Now's the Time' by Charlie Parker
• 'Dedication' by Andrew Hill
• 'Tired Trade' by Andrew Hill
2006 Notes for #1259
Few families will see $1,200 for childcare: Layton
Few Canadian families will ever see the $1,200 promised by the Conservative government to subsidize childcare costs, says New Democrat Leader Jack Layton.
Hundreds of thousands of people demonstrated in cities across the United States in support of illegal immigrants and against any potential congressional legislation that would criminalise them. The biggest rally, in Dallas, attracted 350,000 protesters. Earlier, a Senate bill more in line with George Bush's position, which allows illegal immigrants to apply for residency, stalled because of partisan bickering over amendments. See article
Another political row broke out over presidential powers when it emerged (through documents filed in the prosecution of Dick Cheney's former chief of staff, Lewis “Scooter” Libby) that Mr Bush declassified intelligence on Iraq in 2003 to counter critics of the war. Democrats asked for more details; Republicans said Mr Bush had not done anything wrong.
NASDAQ revealed it had become the biggest shareholder in the London Stock Exchange. It took a 15% stake for £448m ($780m), the bulk of which was sold by Threadneedle Asset Management. Two weeks ago, NASDAQ dropped a takeover offer that the LSE's board rejected as too low, but which pricked the interest of its institutional investors.
 stort
Apr. 10, 2006
- Who Gets to Be an American?
-
- Cover Story: Should They Stay Or Should They Go? As the divisive national debate on immigration heats up--security, identity and wealth all at
issue--every side can agree on just one thing: the system is broken
Friday Mar 31, 2006 Legalize the 'Illegals'
There is no immigration crisis — other than the one created by a small but vocal stripe of opportunist politicians, media demagogues and freelance xenophobes. So it has always been throughout the history of this country when anti-immigrant hysteria periodically reigns during low ebbs in our national sense of security and vision.
Thursday Mar 30, 2006 French Students and Workers are Right
More than a million people in France have taken to the streets against their conservative government's attempts to change the country's labor law. Here in the United States, these strikes and protests are generally seen as another example of France's inability to come to grips with the reality of "the global economy."
According to the conventional wisdom here, "Old Europe" is in need of serious economic reform. But will the reforms currently on the European political agenda actually help most Europeans? see W-N on France
The premier of British Columbia, Gordon Campbell, had his first meeting on Monday with Stephen Harper since he became prime minister in January. Mr. Campbell urged him to press U.S. President George W. Bush for a solution to solve the bilateral dispute over imported Canadian softwood when they meet later in the week in Mexico with that country's President Vicente Fox. Mr. Campbell says he's encouraged that the U.S. hasn't appealed the latest adverse international ruling in the dispute. Last week, a binational panel convened under the rules of the North American Free Trade Area found that the punitive tariffs imposed on the imports by the U.S. government are unjustified. Washington still has three weeks to appeal. The U.S. has ignored previous adverse rulings both by NAFTA and the WTO. The U.S. imposed the tariffs in 2002 on the grounds that Canada's forestry industry is subsidized, which Canada denies. see W-N on this
Friday Mar 31, 2006 “.maisonneuve.org/ THE NATIONAL:
“Shaping
the future: Israelis vote; Who wins? Who loses? And what
now?”
CTV NEWS: “One on
One: An exclusive one-on-one interview with George Bush; How he feels about
border security, softwood lumber and strained relations between Canada and
the US”
GLOBE AND MAIL: “Canadians
turn more sour on US”
NATIONAL POST: “Israel chooses partition”
(not available online)
TORONTO STAR: “Israeli
centrists score shaky victory” (top non-local)
LA PRESSE: “Israelis
vote without enthusiasm” (top non-local)
OTTAWA CITIZEN: “Canadian
killed in Afghanistan”
THE STRAIGHT GOODS:
Issues of continental co-operation rise to the fore as
Harper, Bush and Fox prepare for this week’s summit in Cancún, Mexico.
Israel’s centrist Kadima party wins the most seats in the Knesset while
Likud is reduced to an also-ran. Two Conservative staffers capitalize on a
loophole to leave the Hill and become lobbyists.
Wednesday, March 29, 2006
Bombardier Earnings ,
Bob Fay, transportation analyst, Canaccord Capital
Duration: 4m 52s 
Wednesday, March 29, 2006
Bombardier Earnings ,
Jacques Kavafian, VP, Research Capital
Duration: 6m 22s
Saturday Mar 25, 2006 ec
Stockmarkets continued the year's bullish run. The FTSE index closed above 6,000 for the first time in five years and the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded over 11,000. The star performer was the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex index, which touched 11,000 for the first time, just six weeks after topping 10,000.
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