Read About W-N NP story on W-N Contact W-N and Map Invite to Wed1260 Wednesday Night Salon #1260 Apr 26, 2006 Page 2 Introduction Bulletin Board Introduction Truly a global evening Iran and the Bomb There are few if any disbelievers in reports of North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapon capability. The United States backed off largely, it is believed by some, because of the numerous, multiple tunnels used as hiding places for nuclear weapons, that remain virtually undetectable. Then too, North Korea is not a major petroleum producing country. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's announcement of a similar nature has evoked quite a different response from the United States. Apart from his obvious distaste for the West and accurate hypothesis that Iraq’s fate might have very well been different had it, indeed, possessed W.M.D.’s, Iran’s geographical position in the Mesopotamian basin, its proximity to Iraq and virulent hostility towards Israel constitute cause for legitimate concern on the part of the United States. The equalizing value of nuclear deterrence among otherwise unequal nations dates back to Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The use of the “hotline” in the days of the bipolar U.S. – U.S.S.R. relationship (in the Cuba standoff), as well as skilful negotiation on the part of the U.S. government of that day, very likely saved the world from an unthinkable conflagration. Unfortunately, today we do not see any movement in the US to open new avenues of communication with potential pre-emptive powers. The Nuclear non-proliferation treaty has worked well for these many years, but it is a voluntary, hence unenforceable, treaty. The time has come to hone our negotiating skills and to dissuade new nuclear powers from using their weapons with the threat of mutual assured destruction, just as was done in the past. The rift between the militant Muslim world and the West may possibly justify the reported American shift from nuclear defensive response to possible first strike, but there are fears concerning the unanticipated results of that policy, if indeed it is as it appears. If, because of greater casualties, a prolongation of the Iraq war, a shift to isolationism or a critical point in U.S. government debt, the U.S. abandons Iraq in defeat, a severe response can be anticipated from the Muslim world. [Note: Iraq would seem to justify the recent Maclean's debate on whether George Bush is the worst president ever. See Steve Maich And for the rebuttal by none other than Conrad Black: topstories/politics] The need for Global Governance These events indicate with even greater clarity, the urgent need to establish world government based on something other than the United Nations model. Certainly, the United Nations has done a creditable job on social issues, but it has failed to resolve many important political issues. President George Bush Senior supported a world based on the European Union model, one that appears to have the greatest probability for success. Yet, it is also highly problematic, given the great reluctance on the part of Europeans to accept Turkey, a moderate Muslim country, into the union because of the difficulty experienced in integrating Eastern Europeans into western society. There also appears to be a belief that immigrants from theocracies have difficulty accepting secular government. However, conventional wisdom indicates that integration becomes a natural process in second-generation immigrant families. It is interesting to note that the rioters in France, a country which historically has francisized and integrated all immigrants, were not new arrivals, but second-generation members of immigrant families, and that the issue was not religion but jobs. [Note: The 2005 Human Development Report , published annually (the 2005 index is based on 2003 figures) by the UN, ranks nations according to their citizens' quality of life rather than strictly by a nation's traditional economic figures. The criteria for calculating rankings include life expectancy, educational attainment, and adjusted real income. Canada consistently ranks as one of the most desirable Meanwhile, there is The Failed States Index, published by Foreign Policy and The Fund for Peace, which is perhaps more worthy of thoughtful discussion in this context. "Elections might give voice to the disenfranchised, but they don’t necessarily translate into effective governance. High oil or commodity prices may fill government coffers, but they don’t build strong institutions. By contrast, steps that capture few headlines—the appointment of independent judges, the development of a competent civil service, and the implementation of anti-corruption campaigns—are often the key to improving a country’s foundations." foreignpolicy.com/story/ ] The immigration dilemma In happier times, people moved around the world quite simply. Investors entered a country and established themselves on the basis of little more than a business card. Immigrants in steerge class arrived at Ellis Island, were processed and went to work. Immigration was a solution, not a problem. Today we put up barriers at every level: professionals who are admitted because of their qualifications are then not allowed to practice their professions by the protectionist monopolies of professional associations and unions. In Europe, the problems are somewhat different and in countries like France, largely related to the Muslim immigration, because Islam has historically established itself against concepts of western society. It is also suggested that some of the problems stem from ingrained attitudes in former colonial powers. Although we speak of integration of immigrants, integration implies a single culture or philosophy and even a casual view of Canada indicates a diversity of language, culture, philosophy and politics. While some view with alarm the presence of religious schools and the immigration of former citizens of theocratic regimes, one can only look at the diversity of Canada today and recall the concern about the perceived problems of integrating the Doukhabours in the 1930’s and 1940’s or the Chassidic community. Oil, gas & Environment Of more immediate consequence is the effect of world climate change and conflict on oil prices. Despite the ever-increasing price of gasoline, even at current prices, it is far less expensive than it is in Europe and as a proportion of income, it costs thirty to forty percent less than it did in the 1960s and 1970s. Although the impact has certainly been felt at the lower socio-economic level, the concern that the suburbs will die because of high petroleum cost appears unwarranted, largely because of the way the infrastructure is set up, many people cannot change their consumption habits. On the other hand, if the average household income in Montreal is $50,000, the rising cost of fuel is certain to have an impact. But as we move to the knowledge society, the energy intensity is reduced. Especially when one considers the impact of rising costs on heating, transportation of goods and services. Will this cause a population shift to more temperate climates? Some believe that the petroleum companies will not permit the price to rise above the cost of research to discover less expensive fuels. Others maintain that at one point, shale and tar sands will be included in the assessment of the world’s oil reserves, shifting concern away from the more important issue of dirty air. We should be constantly mindful of the necessity to reduce greenhouse gases and global warming. Politics A successful political candidate requires organization, money and ideas. The heating-up of the Liberal leadership race inevitably stimulates thoughts of running for office, but there is a major deterrent: the requirement for $2 million. And it is obvious that candidates raising large 'war chests' must give something in return to their contributors. Democracy cannot work on this basis. www.flickr.com More of davidnicholson's photos tagged with Wed1260 Wed 1260 slide show A scientific breakthrough and a human success story, Such is the case of an exciting breakthrough in the production of the first synthetic vaccine against pneumonia and meningitis, thanks to the collaborative efforts between Cuban scientists and Canadian Doctor Réné Roy and their respective universities. The body’s response to bacterial invasion is the production of antibodies specifically designed to counteract the antigens produced by the bacteria. Vaccines stimulate the production of specific antibodies without causing the illness. Traditionally, vaccines are produced by culturing the bacterium or an attenuated form of the bacterium, usually in an egg, killing it, then injecting it in order to cause the body to produce the antibodies without undergoing the illness. While this usually works very well, there are instances of egg allergy, as well as the unforeseeable effects of injecting unnecessary bacterial debris such as biological and genetic material. The Cuban-Canadian team has successfully synthesized the pure antigen, leading to a much safer product. Contrary to what might be expected of a socialist government, while the clinical trials were still being conducted, the Cubans, showing a high degree of entrepreneurship, developed in parallel the production facilities for the vaccine, including certification from WHO. An interesting aspect of this story is that thanks to the policy of the Cuban government and the personal philosophy of Dr. Roy, the vaccine is being produced at relatively low cost, with only small royalties paid to its patent holders, namely the universities and research investigators involved. Thus ensuring the widest possible distribution in the developing world. Had the inventors not patented the product, it is most likely that a large pharmaceutical company, taking advantage of a "first-to-file" patent jurisdiction would have adapted the process and sold the product at a much higher cost. The economy Echoing Martin Barnes' comments to the Financial Post, the IMF today published a hopeful report on the global economy predicting another year of GDP growth of nearly 5%. Especially good news is that as many of the best recent economic performances have been in developing countries, the benefits of expansion may be enjoyed by some of the world’s poorest The stock market remains bullish, despite the skittishness of investors who, unused to a bull market of this length, look for signs of decline with each minor correction, or in the event of an unanticipated natural, political or terrorist-initiated disaster, or in the increasing price of petroleum. Interest rates remain low and commodity prices are rising. Insofar as the latter is concerned, the anticipated catastrophic effect of gasoline price increases never really came about at the thirty, forty, fifty or sixty dollar price level of crude, nor is it likely to at seventy, eighty or ninety dollars. Petroleum although great as raw material for the production of plastics, is really a very poor energy source. Human ingenuity remains strong and one can be confident that an alternative fuel will be found before the industrial world drops to its knees due to unacceptable prices or unmanageable world events. In truth, although conventional wisdom would disagree, the world has become much more stable and although Greenwich remains the guardian of time and Paris, the repository of the standard metre, London and New York no longer claim the monopoly on world trade, so that the market can much more easily absorb the shock of a disaster in any part of the world as it has in the past. While it is probably true that a new terrorist attack on New York or London would provoke a greater reaction than in the past, repeated terrorist attacks appear to pass with hardly a glitch as they become more common. The only foreseeable perceivable serious effect would be the addition by the U.S. of still another additional layer of protective procedures, which could possibly impede the free exchange of goods and people. In other words, the future still looks good for the market in Canada, while remaining reasonably cautious. Interest rates will probably rise modestly here, but not sufficiently to have an inflationary effect. Unsettling concerns include Nigeria, Iran, Israel and Palestine, and the possibility of civil war in Iraq; and in the more intermediate term, climate changes, inevitable in the absence of human sensitivity to what is happening in that area. The U.S. economy [See also JACQUES CLÉMENT'S REPORT [1259] ] In 2007 a trillion dollars worth of residential mortgages will come up for renewal in the U.S. in the face of increasing interest rates, decreasing personal savings rates and increasing debt repayment. Savings are negative for the first time since the great depression. The housing market has already been affected. New home sales have been declining and housing inventories are rising but so far, there is no sign of a bursting bubble. Financial markets On the financial markets, the bull market persists. It is interesting that with the market up eighteen hundred points, investors are bearish, recalling only the drops. After six years of generally strong growth, a bear market can be anticipated at the end of this year or in 2007. The fifteenth or seventeenth of this month should see a low which should be seen as a buying opportunity, followed by a recovery. Gold and oils should continue to rise. Previous Videos The economy www.flickr.com This is a Flickr badge showing public photos from davidnicholson tagged with TheBoat. Make your own badge here. TheBoat in slides See JACQUES CLEMENT: REPORT ON THE ECONOMY Notes by Herb Bercovitz OWN Editor: Diana Thébaud Nicholson OWN Radio, the long-lasting treasure intro Wed1260 | Wed1260 slide show Oil Dr. René Roy Robert Landori FATAL GREED DTN OWN more Louise | DTN Diana Nicholson OWN slides | hands | all | & Louise 3-M slides | albums | all Note Wednesday-Night creates charts and follows stocks, including timely related financial news items, in which Wednesday Nighters are interested and in order to demonstrate a service that could eventually be developed and marketed. Wednesday Nighters are invited to participate and help to test the service. see Wednesday-Night.com Flip charts QUOTES of the EVENING from recent Wednesday Nights 2006 From #1260 Apr 26th. If I were running Iran, I would want a nuclear weapon as soon as I could so that I would be the same as my neighbours The need to die in battle in order to get to heaven doesn’t jibe with the interests of the rest of the world – so there are some issues to resolve There is difficulty with the non-proliferation treaty … voluntary, you had to sign on. The U.S. has changed its policy now and we use it precipitously North Korea was not attacked because it had the bomb. Iran has was attacked because it hasn't one The cold war has shown that deterrence has worked The Iranian government is very clever, raising the price of oil by making threats (of a possible nuclear attack) The thinking that this distinguishes this (Iranian) regime is that it is the kamikaze regime The whole theory of nuclear deterrence was to not strike first. Now that has changed with the Bush Doctrine's first strike philosophy I am concerned about what will happen when the U.S. leaves Iraq in defeat. There will be a geopolitical gap. The U.N. is not able to take over the world As long as prices continue … tar sands and shale will be included in reserves and Alberta, Saskatchewan and Venezuela will become hot spots Migration is a world problem. You can’t send them all back and you can’t let everyone in Migration is a solution, not problem. It should be enlarged The U.S. is melting everyone, but people are not melting any more We don’t have enough dialogue with Muslims. It takes one generation to integrate. They are changing the rhythm It takes two to assimilate, the assimilator and the persons who want to assimilate We have to go to the roots of Canada. What is difficult is to keep the diversity. Now, we are talking about integration We comment on the subject based on our own experiences. The children are in multicultural schools and it will happen in its own time. Strike a balance in immigration and let it evolve There is an issue. There are people who came from Muslim countries who see society based on religion or transformed. They are either frustrated or try to transform Private schools based on religion or linguistic origin were part of the problem As an immigrant, I represented Canada as ambassador and spoke for all of Canada There was a time when the Quebec immigration department classified immigrants as Anglophones, Francophones and 'francophonisables' From #1259 Apr 19th. I’m often bewildered by the U.S. criticism of the standard of living in Cuba. Most people in Latin America have a lower standard of living, for example, Mexico. I can’t understand why, from a political policy standpoint, U.S. policy is different for Cuba and the rest of Latin America Cuba has the highest ratio of physicians per capita and is training physicians from all over Latin American and much of the developing world I don’t know what is happening in Iran, but the world has been more stable in the last few years than it has for quite some time People are getting used to bombings and tsunamis. I think that people are getting angry and refuse to get upset Criminals go to jail; exalted criminals go to prison Oil is great for petrochemicals but is not very efficient as a fuel. We are an incredibly inventive bunch. Some other way will be found The U.S. remains the centre for investment in medical care. We learn from them Don’t you find it ironic that the U.S. government was elected by Cubans in Florida? If somebody steals your idea and you are depressed, it is because you don’t have other ideas A pandemic, yes, or terrorism will have a somewhat greater effect than last time. It is worth noting that it is better to have a strong China, Japan, South America and India than to have fewer strong economies. Diversity helps the global economy to absorb the shock. Many people will say there will be a scarcity of resources over the future and it is a good idea to be on good terms with the countries that have them From #1258 Apr 12th. From #1258 Apr 12th. Why has your accent grown thicker as your hair has grown thinner? Impact statements probably have less impact than we would guess What has happened to the Greek concept of Justice? The great thing about being Israeli is that you can do what you want because you are already hated by most of the world The Liberal Party has nothing to do with democracy – it is dictatorial and top-down I would argue that St. Paul was the author of the Christian Magna Carta (Epistle to the Galacians) From #1257 Apr 5th. “Diagnosis is not just pattern recognition.” “If you’re a small country next to a giant, it’s politically expedient to exaggerate the differences and grievances.” From #1256 Mar 29th There is an age at which you should learn that life is not fair I have the impression that there is something deeper, that is, the law ( in France to permit the unrestrained dismissal of young employees within two years of hiring) seems to be a totally different approach to the past; that is that the corporation is not there to serve the interest of the nation I would feel much better if countries built dispute regulation institutions based on the rule of law If they (illegal immigrants) were not there, the economy would suffer Let's not forget that the best speech given at the 1968 Liberal Convention was delivered by J.J. Greene [www.agr.gc.ca/bios/] Voice radio was invented by Reginald Fessenden a Quebecker from Knowlton [Editor's note: if you don't believe it, see: 03d_supp_002_e.htm] www.flickr.com This is a Flickr badge showing public photos from davidnicholson tagged with diananicholson. Make your own badge here. Diana Nicholson Past Quotes Best or All Mouse bio see Diana show hands | RJG | Album Herb Bercovitz OWN Galbraith imges his page See slides | Album and Art slides | Album more Art chiizu W-N Links for #1260 a NewYorker Cartoon every 30 sec. see w-n Right Menu => Harper's | Home w-n 1181 Album | Albums nyt Audio Clips: (mp3) • 'Blue Rondo à la Turk' by Dave Brubeck • 'Now's the Time' by Charlie Parker • 'Dedication' by Andrew Hill • 'Tired Trade' by Andrew Hill 2006 Notes for #1260 Monday May 1, 2006 Minds blossom behind the veil In early February, during the international uproar over caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad published in a Danish newspaper, a women's university here in the capital of the United Arab Emirates announced it had fired an American professor for distributing copies of the cartoons to her students. more Monday May 1, 2006 Breaking the code News that the British judge handing the landmark Da Vinci Code case spiced his written ruling with a secret code of his own sets an intriguing precedent. What if other judges do the same? It could add a whole new dimension to dry legal rulings. Wednesday-Night.com on Privacy Canadian dollar vs euro | Dow 30 w-n chart | TSX Paul Martin | Stevie Harper see also Wednesday-Night.com MedicalNotes Would you like to the Computer Box Click Here To Add Wed1260page2.asp To Your Favorites More Info About... Read Cookie for Site Please click here to see new/updated pages since last visit www.iedm.org/ coming Events Dr. René Roy Wed 1259 Apr 19th 2006 with A scientific breakthrough and a human success story by Dr. René Roy intro by Louise des Trois Maisons , then Robert Landori-Hoffmann & FATAL GREED Peter Perkins told us the Markets nexy move Udo Stundner OWN, Kate Reed once again with Dawa Faces by © Robert J Galbraith and star Anne Coleman from the U.S. CG office in Montreal Catherine Gilbert All the Photos are from the video cam by Roslyn Takeishi then David Mitchell OWN and John Curtin then Gerald Ratzer OWN, and Dr. Andre Pasternac our super banker Jacques Clément on leve in Cuba so his report and Diana slides on Wed1259 Notes by Herb Bercovitz and click for Wed1259 Report | Wed1259 photos slides pan page | ,pan x 263 Wed1259report Wed1260invite Wed1260 invite The views above are neither those of the authors nor the owner of the website, but merely reflect discussions that took place on a this evening