Read About W-N NP story on W-N Contact W-N and Map Invite to Wed1279 Wednesday Night Salon #1279 6th., 2006 Page 2 www.flickr.com More of davidnicholson's photos tagged with Wed1279 Wed 1279 slide show Curtin-raiser On the heels of the recent CBC broadcast of John Curtin's excellent documentary on Terry Mosher (Aislin), the evening opened with a few clips of the film and John's fascinating insights into the experience of directing Canada's arguably finest cartoonist. John also commented on the other documentaries he has produced and directed, his favorite subjects, and the soon-to-be-aired story of the Ugandan children's choir. The world economy As year-end approaches, there are increasing concerns about the economy with cracks becoming evident in the U.S. housing market where homes may be bought without down payment, where it has been estimated that forty percent of all mortgages will not be able to be sustained because of increasing interest rates and borrowing on equity. The exceptions are Florida, California, New Jersey and New York where high speculation, especially by pension funds, have maintained the real estate market. The results of the housing market and weather have yet to be realistically assessed in Florida where the memory of Katrina remains fresh, resulting in a fifty percent increase in insurance rates and fixing limits on compensation for damage. The face of world trade continues to change. While there is some hint of forthcoming problems in the U.S. and Europe, there is less upward pressure on the Canadian dollar which has been, in large part, maintained through mergers and takeovers. Japan is continuing to do well and may be headed towards the establishment of a third free trade area including other Asian countries, Australia and New Zealand. It is possible that at some point in the future, there will be only three world currencies, namely the U.S. dollar, the Euro and a future Asian block currency. A recession is not foreseen, especially if interest rates do not rise at this time. Free Trade Areas While free trade areas have generally been beneficial to all participating countries, there has been some concern expressed that this has been offset by the loss of workers’ rights and the unconscionable deterioration of the environment. NAFTA has been generally regarded positively, with Canada having benefited more than have our American partners, with the softwood lumber dispute an exception, as that issue had never been resolved during free trade negotiations. Mexico There are times when NAFTA has the appearance of an anomaly. Mexico’s Felipe Calderón, a free-trader has been elected President, succeeding Vicente Fox, but the loser, Manuel López Obrador has contested the election and aims to set up a parallel government. Imagine if Al Gore had set up a parallel government after losing the election to George W, or Paul Martin had done the same in Canada! Why does this great divergence in political culture exist? One explanation offered is that the people in the U.S. and Canada are generally not willing to admit the failures of democratic institutions, whereas such failures are a given in Mexico. Nonetheless, as disparate as the three participants in the NAFTA agreement appear, it is generally believed to have been beneficial to all. Knowledge banks versus data distribution banks Large institutions frequently style themselves 'data banks' and indeed they are good at collecting all forms of information from varied sources. What they are not very good at is distribution of the accumulated information in useful form. Information often goes to the end user in the form of massive, expensive hard copy reports (which are virtually unintelligible) or spreadsheets that require extensive analysis. The solution is for the institution to conduct the analysis, based on data collected from the clients and then allow the client organizations to ask the questions relevant to their particular situation. While there is a danger that this process does not encourage developing nations to increase their analytical expertise, it is far preferable to the current unsatisfactory and inefficient situation. Oil Partly due to environmental conditions, especially the relatively mild hurricane season, the price of petroleum has decreased and will probably decline further. The recently discovered oil find in the Gulf of Mexico, while theoretically representing fifty percent of U.S. oil reserves, lies 8.2 to 8.4 kilometres below the surface, making the prospect of recovering it very problematic. The federal Liberal leadership race As the Liberal leadership convention approaches, the race appears to have narrowed down to three likely candidates and the winner expected to be the one who comes to the race with the least personal baggage. Stéphane Dion, a bright, eloquent, bilingual Quebecker, has yet to overcome his unpopularity in his home province and may be viewed as too close to Paul Martin, Bob Rae carries the baggage of an unfavourable reputation in running the financial end of Ontario when Premier of that province, but in the view of some observers is the best person to rebuild the battered Liberal Party. A tight race is forecast between him and Michael Ignatieff, the latter having to convince the electorate that he is back in Canada to stay, and needing to acquire the ability to distinguish between truth and propriety in his public statements. Ignatieff has just issued a Manifesto "Agenda for nation building" ( michaelignatieff.ca/docs ) which, aside from the obvious, focuses on prosperity, Canada’s place in the world. He favours Canada’s role in Afghanistan, believing in peacemaking over peacekeeping. Elections this year? Unlikely in Québec. The Charest Liberals simply aren't popular enough. At the federal level, despite their lack of a leader , the Liberals are nipping at the heels of the Conservatives. The Conservatives will want to avoid an election until they can make peace with the provinces and bring in a new budget – not before next year. Meanwhile, Harper is applying the same tactic as the Martin minority government: make sure that any blame for calling an unpopular election would fall on opposition parties. Kyoto, Conservatives and California As for Stephen Harper, his continued importation of U.S. policy into Canada, particularly on the Kyoto accord, will not win him increased popularity, especially in Québec. Watch for the mid-October interministerial meeting (Oct 12-14) in Yellowknife of federal, provincial and territorial ministers responsible for environment, parks, forestry, fisheries and sustainable development. It is expected that the federal government may by backing off involvement climate change issues, latch onto the less controversial issues related to Biodiversity strategy. [Editor's note: The federal Conservatives are cancelling a $1.5 million pledge by the previous Liberal government to help developing countries cut greenhouse emissions under the rules of the Kyoto Protocol a href="http://www.wednesday-night.com/Kyoto.asp" onmouseover="return overlib('click to Wednesday-Night.com on Kyoto', LEFT);" onmouseout="return nd();" class=b2 target="_new">www.Wednesday-Night.com/Kyoto.asp - one more nail in the coffin of Canadian leadership on climate change issues] YouTube a steal at $1 billion? Sony's acquisition of video-sharing site Grouper could mean big bucks to others in online video. If someone were to buy YouTube tomorrow, what would they have to pay? News.com's Greg Sandoval reports. READ FULL STORY Russell Shaw: What the Sony-Grouper deal means for YouTube Donna Bogatin: Is YouTube worth less than Grouper? Top five reasons NOT to buy YouTube See also: Enterprise fear of social media Video click for Peter Video Wed 1266 June 7th Perkins Perkins Page 1 aprox 3:38min Video Wed 1266 June 7th DivX ME John Mavridis on FGT & BNT | BNT 6=05 13,703kbWMV Wed1276 www.Wednesday-Night.com/DivX/1276Richard Bruno CV320x240.wmv Wed1276 video on Market Glenn & Olivier Who brings home the bacon? Statistics Canada study shows 29% of women earn more than their husbands, up from 11% in 1967 Wed1276 video on 1275wmv Peter Perkins Mkt 320x240.htm video on Market Glenn & Olivier bad? Video Wed 1266 June 7th Perkins Perkins1266 aprox 3:38min Wed1275 Aug 9th Find Wednesday-Night.com pages citing video | Wikipedia | CP | clusty | fact bits | youtube.com/watch DivX Required to see our DivX Videos Canadian dollar is expected to decline against its U.S. counterpart. The economy See also JACQUES CLEMENT: REPORT ON THE ECONOMY Global growth continues strong. Outlook for the markets is positive, but the tightening of interest rates will ultimately affect the stock market and the economy, with a gradual movement of share prices. The global economy is not headed for a recession, but there are risks. The U.S. economy is very dependent on central bank money as opposed to economy money. Bush’s policies may very well be undermining the stability of the U.S. economy. The most serious criticism of President Bush is his attempt to fight a war while simultaneously cutting taxes. If wars are not financed by taxes they tend to lead to inflation. Ascending Asia will ultimately put pressure on the U.S. dollar to fall. Another problem is China as any crisis there such as a crisis in the banking system, risks causing the Chinese boom to fall. A depression in North America is unlikely but a very long recession is possible. With rising interest rates, the real estate market in serious danger of collapse. Previous Videos Notes by Herb Bercovitz OWN Editor: Diana Thébaud Nicholson OWN Radio, the long-lasting treasure intro Wed1279 | Wed1279 slide show Oil DTN OWN more Louise | DTN Diana Nicholson OWN slides | hands | all | & Louise 3-M slides | albums | all Jacques Clément O.W.N. slides Gerald Ratzer OWN Note Wednesday-Night creates charts and follows stocks, including timely related financial news items, in which Wednesday Nighters are interested and in order to demonstrate a service that could eventually be developed and marketed. Wednesday Nighters are invited to participate and help to test the service. see Wednesday-Night.com Flip charts QUOTES of the EVENING from recent Wednesday Nights 2006 From #1279 Since Pluto has been downgraded, a lot of things have been going wrong, so we should be very careful about prognostication Softwood lumber was never resolved during free trade negotiations. There are winners (the powerful) and in the short term, the losers (the weak) We have benefited enormously from the Free trade agreement … Euro zone has also benefited greatly. Japan in agreement with Australia, New Zealand and other Asian governments ... We will ultimately end up with a small number of currencies, possibly the Euro, the U.S. dollar and an Asian currency Are the Taliban actually bad guys? Is this an idealogical rather than tribal dispute … different groups controlling different territory? Why are we there? Layton is pandering to some sector of the population that is not there Harper will not call an election but will probably wait for the opposition to force one My feeling is that Harper will make his concession (to the provinces) in the budget (Spring 2007) and will call an election if his prospects look good From #1278 Does the current situation remind you of events leading up to 1976 – possible stagflation? The United States is shipping raw materials to China and getting back finished goods What about our friends in Europe who have no raw materials to sell? We hear statistics about job creation, but only the unions seem to be concerned with job losses (i.e. softwood lumber) What would happen if there were no drug culture in North America … the rich would be richer and the poor would be poorer From #1277 “The hallmark of a good negotiation is when both sides are a little unhappy.” “Who is going to enforce the regulation against a superpower? It is a question of interest.” “We have a solution (to the software lumber dispute) because the Prime Minister wants to make people happy.” “What is to be gained by letting this (softwood lumber dispute) go on for another ten years?” “Canada’s capitulation puts into question, the very existence of the World Trade Organization.” “The World Trade Organization does a great job of protecting pharmaceutical companies.” “Surely, there will be some move to expand NAFTA and other countries may hesitate.” “The next big battle with the U.S. will be over the sovereignty of the north.” “If we continue to keep on in the courts, what happens if we can’t sell our lumber to the obvious (U.S.) market? This is a good deal for the Canadian government because it would cost more to subsidize the industry.” “Over the long term, Canada will be stronger.” “Canada is not as innocent as it appears.” “(The U.S.) supports the W.T.O. dispute resolution mechanism … will work in the background to make it work.” “He (Stephen Harper) has lost his way in trying to get the support of Quebeckers.” “Harper was surprised that Quebeckers came on side and he believed that it was karma.” “He (Stephen Harper) seems to be a principled person. He doesn’t necessarily act to get a vote here or there.” “He Stephen Harper) is making the same mistake as Joe Clark.” From #1276 If you add all the people who died in all the wars, the death rate has gone up, not down There is one country that has been the target for elimination. The whole raison d'être of Hezbollah is to destroy Israel. If Israel had lost control, Lebanon would have been a wasteland Our market is transparent to the people They (hedge funds) could be our undoing. There is always some new fad that taken to extremes that eventually blows up. I worry about hedge funds and derivatives because of the potential liability if they blow up.” Hezbollah has taken over all functions of local governments, NGOs and community development The cost of the war is the notion that Israel is invincible. Chances of survival of Israel (in the longer term) are not that high Future wars will be not between armies, but between regular armies and irregulars (Hezbollah) … bringing money, reconstruction funds, stability. It’s not just Lebanon, it’s the whole region and it’s scary for the rest of the world Hezbollah is an agent, but for whom? Nineteenth century Europe had its anarchists. Britain fought in a half dozen small wars prior to and post World War II. The Brits were successful in many countries including Malaya, Kenya. These things can be won by force and intelligence. It is not just from our time. Many people died to produce our system of free speech and liberty. It was handed to us. The United States was the first country to separate Church and State Iran and Syria are the nations that make things happen No one instigated this (the Israeli incursion into Lebanon). It has been going on over twenty or more years At a certain point, after (repeated) punches, you fight back. There was no reason for Hezbollah to abduct two soldiers because of a conference in Russia on Iran We are losing our ability to distinguish right from wrong Self-regulation is not popular among the experts Auditors have problems auditing hedge funds (and other mutual funds as well). A major problem in Canada is the lack of a single national regulator There is no need for a single regulator in Canada as long as everyone buys into the passport system Blaming regulators is a favourite game of disappointed investors The internal barriers to trade in this country are absurd The nice thing about the mining industry is that [the foreign buyer] cannot remove anything – the rocks stay, the jobs stay … From #1275 A hedge fund manager is just a manager with skills in reducing risks Twenty years in the future, hedge funds and pension funds will just be funds It is absolutely the case that the majority (of hedge fund managers) are not buying and selling short; they are smart and a bunch that think that they are smarter than most and they are. They have a target on their back You are informed but not protected and that is the basis on which securities are sold in North America Hedge fund is a misnomer. Everything not a mutual fund calls itself a hedge fund Most hedge fund investors are misinterpreted but central banks should be better informed because hedge funds lean on the banking system Stocks do well when the Fed finishes raising interest rates I am wondering at what point the public will revolt against (inequities in) compensation (between CEOs and employees). This is the stuff that the Russian revolution was based on In a liberal system, what you earn is linked to what you permit other people to earn It is the difference between the wealth of the rich and the poor that is a danger to democracy. The only way to influence the political process is money If the fans want to pay 150 bucks to see a hockey game, why should the players not be paid rather than the owners? When the C.E.O. is overcompensated it is to the detriment of the shareholders People will get away with anything they can to make money Managers are hired to do a good job. Overcompensation does not make sense. Managers manage short term not to disappoint shareholders, to keep stock prices up, to increase their own compensation Good managers versus bad managers make a difference of thousands of jobs It’s not an easy time now in the financial markets and is not likely to be for some time now If the South Africa Rand takes a fall, the Canadian dollar will fall We have played all our cards. What card has the U.S. left to play in the Middle East? Israel has no trump card left. It will be very difficult to negotiate. The U.S. can’t even back down for a while and come back again I think that the U.S. believed that Israel could take care of Hezbollah, neutralizing Iran and Syria by proxy From #1274 The Canadian way was to be equivocal. Harper has made a decision U.S. and Canada are eager to align with Israel because it is like the West Civilian death is unacceptable everywhere I can’t remember when there hasn’t been a war (somewhere) in the last hundred years. It is a privilege to live in Montreal In Switzerland, no one knows about the government and (yet) it prospers We reserve our right to intervene by being neutral The greatest problem has been European nations who created nations along geographic rather than demographic lines For the first time we have a P.M. in Israel who is not a military man and the military has now taken over. The same holds true of Colin Powell who recommended restraint If Syria and Iran tell Hezbollah to stop, we will have an option If U.S. tells Israel to stop, we have an option If I was Harper, I would do the same thing Polls show that it was not a popular decision in Québec and Harper needs Québec Ahmedinejad is playing his cards very well Economic freedom and political freedom go hand in hand We have to look at editorial issues and the French press hasn’t the same vision as the English press It (Russia) is trying to institute its hegemony through oil The Russian economy has been increasingly strong, which has emboldened Putin to exercise his authority From #1273 The constant conflict between individual and collective rights will not be solved today Defeated (unelected) candidates rarely get their programs realized. Sitting on the Opposition side of the House does not prevent you from contributing to policy Obviously the Northwest Passage becomes more interesting to one country in particular, the United States, if there is more shipping through the area CBC-TV should have a public service mandate (with relation to information sharing on health care and other social issues), but what it really does is just create Canadian shows, which are violent I moved C-24 to limit spending (3.4 million) in part to make it fairer for potential women parliamentarians Party politics in general is counter-productive to finding solutions. However, sometimes you need the critical mass to bring in policies that are good – albeit unpopular – for the country. It’s not for nothing that [the Liberal government] managed to eliminate the deficit and turn things around…. Sometimes when I was in Cabinet, I thought: “how can they be so hopelessly wrong?” But I would go out and defend the decision. That is the price you have to pay for the country to function. In question period I invented the rule that we only had 45 seconds, so now I am making up for it. From #1272 What we are doing is making human life a commodity, which is a big mistake Every new embryo is a human being It is obscene to oppose stem cell research on the basis of humanity while not providing low- price AIDS drugs or Medicare for Africa There is a distinction between killing them (foetuses) and allowing them to die Once you allow this (the use of discarded foetuses) to happen, then you allow industry to get involved and the creation of embryos for sale We are the product of a long line of evolution What we decide will determine the future of human life on earth From homo sapiens we will become techno sapiens What we now see as minor changes can grow into enormous issues Modern Iranians need support. Going to the University of Teheran is like going to McGill. The people are like us Iran is no worse [in its social policies] than those regimes like Saudi Arabia that are allied with the United States The success of Indian states like Kerala is not due to globalization, but to the socialist principles instilled by the communists We must all become more comfortable with being challenged by uncomfortable ideas More Quotes Short | Full List Let's not forget that the best speech given at the 1968 Liberal Convention was delivered by J.J. Greene [www.agr.gc.ca/bios/] Voice radio was invented by Reginald Fessenden a Quebecker from Knowlton [Editor's note: if you don't believe it, see: 03d_supp_002_e.htm] www.flickr.com This is a Flickr badge showing public photos from davidnicholson tagged with diananicholson. Make your own badge here. Diana Nicholson Past Quotes Best or All Mouse bio see Diana show hands | RJG | Album Herb Bercovitz OWN Galbraith imges his page See slides | Album and Art slides | Album W-N Links for #1279 a NewYorker Cartoon every 30 sec. see w-n Right Menu => Harper's | Home nyt Audio Clips: (mp3) • 'Blue Rondo à la Turk' by Dave Brubeck • 'Now's the Time' by Charlie Parker • 'Dedication' by Andrew Hill • 'Tired Trade' by Andrew Hill 2006 Notes for #1279 Menu to mitworld.mit.edu/ on-demand videos of significant public events at MIT. in RealPlayer Ex Thomas L. Friedman. While you were Seeping The World IS Flat Video length is 1:15:04. Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary Profit Picture Positive for Some, Poor for Others - August 30, 2006 One of the best ways to monitor the health of an economic expansion is to watch companies’ profit margins. And the latest news on profit margins in Canada shows stress symptoms. 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Read Cookie for Site Please click here to see new/updated pages since last visit www.iedm.org/ coming Events Dr. Tony Deutsch OWN Wed 1278 Aug 30th. 2006 with slides | Louise des Trois Maisons , then Me John Mavridis FGT and Blue Note onmouseout="return nd();" >FGT and Hugh Anderson and then danny van Gelder with greate Newfy girl Andirea Dillon then Me Allan Mass OWN Louise des Trois Maisons , then Robert Landori-Hoffmann & FATAL GREED also Dame Margaret Lefebvre OWN, John Curtin and Udo Stundner OWN, our Swiss Banker and Anne Coleman Claudia Viereck, MBA and Dr. Anne Andermann who gave us www.quackwatch.org Jaime Webbe Dr. Catherine Gillbert Diana slides on Wed1278 © Robert J Galbraith Notes by Herb Bercovitz and click for Wed1278Report | Wed1278 photos slides Wed1278 report Wed1279 invite Wed1280 page2 The views above are neither those of the authors nor the owner of the website, but merely reflect discussions that took place on this evening