Read About W-N NP story on W-N Contact W-N and Map Invite to Wed1293 Wednesday Night Salon #1293 13 Dec 2006 Page 2 (chroniques/budgetseguin ) Announcement – 25 years of Wednesday Nights According to our most numerate Wednesday Nighter, Gerald, the Silver Anniversary of Wednesday Night will take place on January 31, 2007 [Editor's note: the date is in dispute and is to be recalculated taking into account Islamic, Jewish, Julian and Gregorian calendars, with and without leap years, etcetera, etcetera.] Brian Morel has valiantly stepped forward as Organizer-in-Chief of the festivities and asks that anyone interested in helping contact him through Diana. Christmas bonus – excess? This year has been especially kind to many large financial and industrial institutions, reflected in the obscene bonuses accorded their senior managers and employees. Far from enriching the population, it is probable that the excess of this type of reward system, justified by allegations of competition in hiring managers with the best track record, constitutes a danger to free markets. Banks The news that Canada’s six biggest banks have set a new benchmark for profitability, smashing their previous full-year earnings record with total net income of $19 billion for 2006 makes them an obvious target of much Wednesday Night criticism, especially since many local branches closed and now ATMs are farther and farther apart, leaving one to wonder how private citizens can do any banking at all. Kofi Anan's parting shot Despite undoubtedly justified widespread criticism of the current U.S. administration, to some, Kofi Anan’s parting shot at President George Bush appears excessive. Throughout the history of democratic nations, traditional individual rights have been temporarily diminished by no less revered national leaders than Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Winston Churchill. During World War II, under the Presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, as in Canada, citizens of Japanese origin were rounded up and detained for the duration of the war. The United Kingdom under Winston Churchill, suspended the right of habeas corpus, resulting in the detention of many citizens thus deprived of their democratic rights, yet these national leaders are revered to this day. It may very well be that the inept manner in which George Bush has acted has engendered his current widespread unpopularity but the threat of international terrorism is very real. It will be for history to judge his record. This is not the first occasion on which the impartiality of Kofi Anan has been brought into question. He has supported six resolutions condemning Israel, but none against any other nation, among which many whose human rights violations have been at least as serious. [Editor's note: We do not always agree with opinions expressed at Wednesday Night. While we too have grave misgivings about the Secretary-General's tenure, we would not criticize his comments that “You Americans did so much, in the last century, to build an effective multilateral system, with the United Nations at its heart. Do you need it less today, and does it need you less than 60 years ago?” Kate Reid We would also point to the flip side of the criticism leveled at the departing Secretary-General by some in the room, which was reported widely in the U.S. media and warrants our consideration. "In response to a question after his remarks, Annan said he was appealing for cooperation and leadership, not criticizing the United States. 'What I am saying here is that when the U.S. works with other countries in a multilateral system, we do extremely well,' Annan said. The U.S. has a special responsibility to the world because it continues to have extraordinary power, he said".] The geopolitics of large-scale environmental impacts Whatever criticism might be raised concerning the means employed by the United States to preserve the integrity of the western world against a perceived threat, that country remains the linchpin in protecting the Western World against international terrorism. The irony of this situation is the vulnerability of the United States to the growing worldwide problem of unbridled environmental change. Aside from the justifiable criticism of the incompetence of the engineers and Administration personal responsible for the design and maintenance of the levees protecting New Orleans and their reaction to the disaster, Hurricane Katrina demonstrated the destructive nature of the rapidly changing environment, including the impact of populations that live in areas that should not be developed as urban centers. The cost of repair ($125 billion of insured losses versus the cost of Iraq at $87 billion) has been absorbed and there appears to be a large degree of apathy about the ability or inability of the U.S. to repeatedly absorb the human and material cost of such natural disasters, which are not only localized, but social problems are exported with refugees. What does not appear to be taken into consideration is the vulnerability of the heavily populated U.S. Coastal regions, against rapidly escalating climate change that threatens to result in greater, more disastrous environmental events, which in turn affect the entire national security of the nation. While obvious threats are to the Gulf Coast and other coastal regions of the U.S., not only Florida and Louisiana are at risk, but as far north as New York, for example, theoretically flooding Manhattan where ten-foot sea surges have been predicted to occur every ten years or so. Canada has a comparative advantage to the U.S. in that the population is more linear than coastal, the country having been originally settled along the railway line and hence it is less vulnerable. Of course, the United States is not the only country in danger of being affected by environmental impact. Europe and the other continents will become more vulnerable. The Korean Peninsula is especially exposed to the ravages of increasingly frequent and violent attacks by El Niño. The resultant damage to the tactical equipment of the U.S. Navy could open South Korea to invasion by the North Korean army. China suffers from problems stemming from poor engineering And these may well be compounded by unwise decisions of the government to proceed with such projects as the Three Gorges, the modernization of the North South – or Grand – Canal, a water diversion project that centers on the ancient waterway over which grain taxes were once shipped to the northern imperial capitals from the grain-producing regions of the South. This canal could now play a major role in facilitating modern transportation within China , and the train to Tibet more than half of which is built on permafrost. Microcredit 101 The recent Microcredit Summit in Halifax launched two lofty goals to be reached by 2015: 1) reaching 175 million poorest families with Microcredit, which will affect 875 million people and 2) ensuring 100 million families rise above the US$1 a day threshold, lifting 500 million people out of extreme poverty. There is little doubt that Muhammad Yunus merited the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize. However, Microcredit has been successfully exercised for many years, particularly in India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh, but also in Africa and other parts of the world. Small amounts of money are loaned jointly to small groups of women who share the responsibility for repayment. Though frequently uneducated in relation to their counterparts in more affluent parts of the world, they have demonstrated considerable sophistication in planning and implementing commercial projects, most frequently with the help of NGO’s, have become more independent and repay close to one hundred percent of the loans. More important still, in the experience of someone who has followed this story closely, the beneficiaries of these tiny loans have improved their lives, managed to put their children through school and many are expanding their businesses with new Microcredit loans. Democratic India favours equality in its citizens and reserves educational places for the lower castes, but out of six billion people, one billion live on less than one dollar a day. Micro credit experience has not only demonstrated the poor pay back. The social climate of interdependence appears to be a powerful incentive in preventing non-repayment. Because of the interdependence of these small, close knit groups, each member realizes that if she does not repay her portion of a loan, the burden will fall on her close friends and neighbours, which is personally and socially unacceptable. Moreover, the Microcredit experience has demonstrated that affluence is not necessarily a function of intelligence and in India, the traditional caste system and gender bias have, in the past, acted as a deterrent to the potential contribution of intelligent, streetwise women, who know and understand their communities' needs, and are skilled in the careful handling of money, preventing them from becoming independent and contributing to the economy. The medical specialists in Québec A Wednesday Nighter recently suffered a medical emergency that brought home just how bad the situation is. The small suburban hospital to which he was admitted had no neurologist to diagnose his situation. Fortunately, the confrerie of Wednesday Night doctors was able to come to his aid. Many, many other citizens of this province will not be so lucky. And the shortage of specialists in Québec will soon affect even those who have connections. Today, it takes at least three weeks to obtain an appointment with a neurologist. Québec is heading for a major medical crisis. In 1995, the provincial government implemented an inexplicable early retirement buyout scheme for medical professionals, resulting in a shortage of Physicians and Nurses, exacerbated by an antiquated fee schedule that has remained unchanged for the past fifteen years and that is not only unbalanced but totally non-competitive with fees currently paid to their counterparts in the rest of Canada. An aging population constituting an increased demand for medical care has exacerbated the situation. If it is the belief of the government that language differences or local loyalty will keep young graduates here, they are sadly mistaken. Québec City, though perhaps remote from the economic and population centre of the province, is not Delphi and the Oracle apparently does not reside in the National Assembly. It is apparent that the situation will deteriorate and, if history is any predictor of the future, the population will tolerate only so much before insisting that their government of whatever political persuasion re-examine its priorities. Adding to the problems are the two mega-hospital projects for which there may not be sufficient staff (or clients in the case of the MUHC). The economy We are reminded that there is indeed such a thing as the business cycle. What goes up inevitably comes down and the economies of both Canada and the U.S. seem headed south, although predictions are for a soft landing. But tax receipts are up in North America because of record corporate profits, record stock markets and record capital gains. The U.S. trade deficit in goods dropped in October to its lowest level since August 2005, reflecting a sharp fall in the price of oil. However, the deficit with China continued to grow and hit $24.4 billion. One interesting news item is that factory orders in China are down. This could presage a drop in China's rate of growth, which does not augur well for Chinese prosperity. Emerging markets The world is flush with money and that money must go somewhere. Emerging markets are expected to grow by six percent next year. These include not only manufacturing countries such as China and India, but also such countries as Thailand, Vietnam, Brazil, Chile, Mexico. For the investor, emerging markets should not be considered to be homogeneous, but as separate entities. [Editor's note: Two recently published news items support this view. " … even after a sharp setback in May and June, the world's hunger for commodities along with fierce domestic consumer demand spelled a torrid pace of growth in the emerging markets of China, Russia (50%) and India (48%), all three of them soundly outstripping the U.S. and other industrialized-market nations for the fifth straight year. Less liquid markets took even greater leaps, with Morocco up 66% and Venezuela 62% Watching for a global climate change And: "Investors in emerging markets added more money to stock funds last week than at any time in seven months after record-breaking share rallies from China to Brazil pushed inflows for 2006 past last year’s all-time high" Global warming At the recent Climate Change Conference in Nairobi, a number of extremely important development issues were sidelined by the very open split between the Group of 77 plus China and the U.S.-Canada-Australia coalition. The Millennium Development Goals are a unifying point for all of the parties, however there are conflicting views on how to reach the goals two of which are advocated by Jeffrey Sachs and William Easterly, formerly of the World Bank (for more on this debate, please see Why Hayek Was Wrong: Sachs Responds to Easterly) _limits_to_growth_30_year_update With the Liberal Party What will happen to the price of oil? Real estate Bulletin Board www.flickr.com More of davidnicholson's photos tagged with Wed1293 Wed 1293 slide show Canadian dollar is expected to decline against its U.S. counterpart. The economy See also JACQUES CLEMENT: REPORT ON THE ECONOMY video Wed1293 4 min 22 sec - Dec 13, 2006 The T.S.X. reached a new record high of over 13,000 today for a gain of over 2,100 in the last six months, despite a $16.00 decline in crude oil since August and $89.00 decline in gold since mid-May and a resulting 3½ cent U.S. decline in the Canadian dollar, the economy continuing to weaken with 2% G.D.P. growth in the second quarter and 1.7% in the third quarter, as manufacturing weakened (capacity utilization was the lowest in three years), the trade surplus narrowed to below $4 billion as exports declined 2% in the last two months, housing starts flattened in November, new vehicle sales plunged almost 6% (September-October), only 22,000 new jobs were created in November and unemployment rose to 6.3%. The stock market is supported by record corporate profits, $187 billion of mergers and acquisition activities and record private equity transactions of $8 billion after nine months. Core inflation (2.3%) is at its fastest pace in three years and Bank of Canada’s overnight rate remained unchanged at 4¼% as the Governor expects a deeper slowdown in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2007. His outlook of G.D.P. growth of 2.8% this year and 2.5% next year is likely to be revised down in January. Productivity has been negative for the last two quarters, the first time since 1995. U.S. The Dow-Jones reached a new record high of 12,419 today, a gain of 1,700 points in the last six months, the S& P 500, a six year high and the NASDAQ, a five year high, benefiting from the major decline in energy prices, the October trade deficit, narrowing by over eight percent to below $59 billion, record corporate earnings (third quarter +19%) and 9% – 9½ % rise expected in the fourth quarter, overall corporate liquidity rising by 40%, record stock buyback by the corporate sector, record world buyouts ($170 billion), close to record mergers and acquisitions ($1.6 Trillion) and private equity financing ($600 billion). Personal income continues to rise and spending more moderately. Retail sales rebounded 1% in November but consumer confidence is declining at a faster pace. Construction spending has experienced its eighth consecutive monthly decline with existing home sales collapsing 13% in October, new home sales by 25% year to date, housing starts by almost 15% in October and are at the lowest level in six years. They have declined 34% since their peak in January. Housing permits (October) were down 6.3% for the ninth consecutive monthly decline. Employment averaging 125,000 has been weak since September but unemployment at 4½ % is close to the lowest in five and a half years. The manufacturing sector is in its third month of downturn with the national I.S.N. and Chicago showing the first monthly contraction in three years. October durable goods orders plunged by close to 8½%, factory orders declined 4.7%, the worst in six years and the third decline in the last four months. The industrial production eased pretty severely in the auto sector where inventories are huge. Productivity in the third quarter barely improved. The G.D.P. of 2.2% in the third quarter was below its non-inflationary potential of 3%. The outlook for 2006 of 3.3% and 2007 of 2.6% are likely to be revised down, with 2.7% core inflation near a ten year high, the Fed kept its Federal funds rate steady at 5¼% for the fourth consecutive meeting. Labour costs have stabilized at 2.3% (year/year). Services spending remain strong. The outlook for the U.S. dollar remains negative with Allan Greenspan negative outlook based on the current account deficit of $218 billion in the second quarter. Near-term Outlook: December 2006 Canadian Dollar: 86¢ U.S. – 87¢ U.S. Euro: $1.32. U.S. - $1.33 U.S. Crude Oil $62.00 U.S - $64.00 U.S. Dow-Jones: D.J.: 12,400 – 12,600 The T.S.X : 12,800 – 13,000 Gold:- futurs: $620.00 U.S. - $630.00 U.S. ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN FORECAST The Canadian Chamber of Commerce has predicted an economic slowdown in the first two quarters of 2007. The Chamber forecasts in its annual economic review a decrease of the Gross Domestic Product of almost one-half a percentage point for next year. Economists at the National Bank also see a slowdown over the next year. Both institutions base their predictions on the weakness of the U.S. economy, which will cause a decline in Canadian exports. OTTAWA: INFLATION UP Canada's annual inflation rate rose half a percentage point in November to 1.4 per cent. It's the first time in three months the figure has exceeded one per cent. The reason for the increase was higher costs for mortgages and home repairs. OTTAWA: RURAL CANADA REPORTED IN DECLINE A report by Canada's upper chamber of parliament, the Senate, shows that the rural areas of the country are in decline. The report indicates that those areas are facing an ageing population, migration to the cities and a growing class of what the Senate calls the invisible poor. The report goes on to says that Canadians living outside large cities have become second-class citizens in their own country. The report warns, among other things, that rural Canada is responsible for agriculture and as a result, important to food production. The report also notes that in a period of 60 years, Canada has gone from one of the most rural countries in the world to one of the most urbanized. Thursday 21 December 2006 nyt Summer’s Economic Growth Is Revised Downward Notes by Herb Bercovitz OWN Editor: Diana Thébaud Nicholson OWN Radio, the long-lasting treasure intro Wed1293 | Wed1293 slide show Oil DTN OWN more Louise | DTN Diana Nicholson OWN slides | hands | all | & Louise 3-M slides | albums | all Jacques Clément OWN slides Gerald Ratzer OWN Note Wednesday-Night creates charts and follows stocks, including timely related financial news items, in which Wednesday Nighters are interested and in order to demonstrate a service that could eventually be developed and marketed. Wednesday Nighters are invited to participate and help to test the service. see Wednesday-Night.com Flip charts QUOTES of the EVENING from recent Wednesday Nights 2006 From #1293 Today everything is blamed on the current president for many things that other presidents have done many times when country is in peril Ontario is in recession and Québec is near recession what's carrying Canada is the west – Alberta Tax receipts are stellar … tight market in skilled labour. Where is the recession? Emerging markets are not homogeneous The real spirit of micro credit is (that) people who had nothing, get together The critical issue is (that) their (the micro-credit borrowers’) collateral is social collateral. Obviously it works I have been meeting people who cannot read or write, but they are starting dairies [In India] they are trying to institute micro-insurance schemes for small farmers Amazon is selling books that haven't been written yet This[Microcredit] is the new form of woman power – a niche not occupied by men at all One of the problems … no one seems to know the pay scale (of physicians) versus (that of) electricians and plumbers. Why aren’t they better at stating their case? You citizens pay your taxes and the government is cheating you by not guaranteeing the medical care you paid for From #1292 Westmount [mons occidentalis] is hereby declared to be a nation, but only in the sociological sense; cleverly the new petition refers only to Westmounters – not Ouestmontais – thus excluding 20% of the citizens, thus eliminating any suggestion that Westmount should become a state Most people aren't active and don't think about politics except on election day; politicians cannot be representative because they think about politics all the time What was difficult was when the delegates were freed, it was not (then) the vote of the people who elected the delegates This (the current Canadian system) is the way the U.S. used to do it like this. It gave you the chance to go with the flow. In the U.S. with the primary process you often can be stuck with a candidate that can’t possibly win More Quotes Short | Full List www.flickr.com This is a Flickr badge showing public photos from davidnicholson tagged with diananicholson. Make your own badge here. Diana Nicholson Past Quotes Best or All Mouse bio see Diana show hands | RJG | Album Herb Bercovitz OWN Galbraith imges his page See slides | Album and Art slides | Album W-N Links for #1293 a NewYorker Cartoon every 30 sec. see w-n Right Menu => Harper's | Home nyt Audio Clips: (mp3) • 'Blue Rondo à la Turk' by Dave Brubeck • 'Now's the Time' by Charlie Parker • 'Dedication' by Andrew Hill • 'Tired Trade' by Andrew Hill 2006 Notes for #1293 Friday 15 December 2006 MONTREAL: QUEBEC MEDICAL SPECIALISTS REMAIN DEFIANT Medical specialists in the province of Quebec promised on Sunday to provide essential services to patients, but remained defiant in their quest for more money from the government. The specialists had been applying pressure tactics to force the government to capitulate. They were unhappy that they earn about 40 per cent less than their colleagues in the neighbouring province of Ontario. The specialists stopped teaching medical students and warned that they might stop delivering babies as well. But the essential services council of Quebec told the specialists drop those tactics. The physicians agreed, but vowed to employ other tactics to achieve their demands. Rex Murphy's Point of View index Margaret Lefebvre Became Member OWN Westmount City Won the Ward and COUCHICHING the Council of Canadian Academies then Income Trusts and now Friday Nov 3, 2006 Margaret Lefebvre Appointed to the National Research Council of Canada Menu to mitworld.mit.edu/ on-demand videos of significant public events at MIT. in RealPlayer Ex Thomas L. Friedman. While you were Seeping The World IS Flat Video length is 1:15:04. Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary International Borrowing Boosting Resiliency - December 13, 2006 It goes without saying that anybody that is carrying debt is more vulnerable to an economic downturn than someone debt-free. That applies equally to individuals, companies or countries. Past issues | his WN page Wednesday-Night.com on Privacy Canadian dollar vs euro | Dow 30 w-n chart | TSX Paul Martin | Stevie Harper see also Wednesday-Night.com MedicalNotes Would you like to the Computer Box Click Here To Add Wed1293page2.asp To Your Favorites More Info About... Read Cookie for Site Please click here to see new/updated pages since last visit www.iedm.org/ coming Events Cleo Paskal Wed1293 13 Dec 2006 with Cleo Paskal talked about her New Book on Global Warming video also Sheila Arnopoulos talked on the Bangladesh MiniLoans then confirmed by Dr. Antal Tony Deutsch OWN [page] also Dr. Andre Pasternac and Dr. Mark Roper OWN O.W.N. in photos and Germain Bourgeois Udo Stundner OWN, our Swiss Banker and danny van Gelder on camera then John Curtin and Catherine Gillbert Gerald Ratzer OWN then video of Brian Morel's plea for Help on th 25th 2:17 then Louise des Trois Maisons , Diana slides on Wed1293 Notes by Herb Bercovitz and click for Wed1293Report | Wed1293 photos slides Wed1292 report Wed1292 invite Wed1294 page2 1293 The views above are neither those of the authors nor the owner of the website, but merely reflect discussions that took place on this evening