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Wednesday Night Salon
#1299 24 Jan 2007 Page 2
Introduction
In addition to the welcome presence of Wednesday Night's favorite geologist and resident expert on aviation and the environment, Judith Patterson, we were joined by John Herity, the Director of IUCN-Canada and former head of the Biodiversity Convention Office of Environment Canada. John's distinguished career in the Environment field includes over 30 years with Environment Canada, including some 13 years with the Biodiversity Convention Office.
Energy Security and Tar sands #101
The environment being a common good, it is too much to expect that all nations will be willing to take the necessary steps to avoid sacrificing the very future of human and animal existence on the altar of present human comfort. We are increasingly unwilling to give up short- distance air or automobile travel for train or public urban transportation, or to ban SUVs, or take the necessary steps to generally reduce energy consumption.
The U.S. with 4.6% of the world's population consumes 25% of the world's oil; the use of alternative fuels has become a very serious issue in the U.S. as the national preoccupation has become 'Energy Security' , provoked by a combination of events including 9/11, the war in Iraq, $70 bbl oil and Katrina.
What could be more enticing/reassuring than the knowledge that there is a vast reserve of oil available from the Athabaska Tar Sands, which represent 80% of the world's tar sands? This is an economical, convenient and secure source of oil without the risk of transporting conventional petroleum from potentially more dangerous parts of the world.
[Editor's note: Radio-Canada reported on Jan 19 that the Harper government is giving serious consideration to a plan for a fivefold expansion of oil sands production emerging out of a Security and Prosperity Partnership meeting between Canadian and U.S. oil executives and government officials. The " Zone Libre Enquête" report has some major flaws, especially that it implies that this is a recent development, whereas the meeting in question took place in January 2006, three days after the Harper election.]
It cannot be sufficiently emphasized that these are NOT oil sands - they are tar sands, - oil that has been degraded over millions of years. – this is bitumen – what asphalt is made of.
The refining of tar sands requires huge amounts of natural gas to separate the oil from the bitumen, and then they have to use five times the amount of fresh water as the amount of oil produced. We are also changing the physical environment placing woodlands and caribou at risk. Ultimately and realistically, in the not-too-distant future, this source of petroleum (and the natural gas that we use to extract it, not to mention the water) will dry up. A possible solution in the medium term would be nuclear energy to provide the electricity to replace natural gas, but this option faces clear opposition from many whose fear of uranium appears to be excessive.
However, these tar sands solutions including the use of nuclear energy to separate the sand from the bitumen are but temporary. In the longer term, if we and the Earth’s non-human terrestrial inhabitants are to survive, we must plan long term for energy sources that do not exhibit the environmental hazards demonstrated by the burning of fossil fuels and realistically, we should factor the cost of environmental change into the price of petroleum products. Even if the emissions reductions provided under the Kyoto Protocol were to be respected, they were not intended to be a cure, but merely a means of providing the world with a brief interlude in which permanent solutions might be found, a list that would probably not include the burning of carbon based fuels.
In Canada, we tend to feel secure in comparing ourselves with the United States in energy conservation but in truth, we depend on federal and mostly, provincial legislation, while in the United States, in the absence of federal legislation, State and Municipal governments have been working effectively to cut greenhouse gases aiming to change habits through incentives, penalties and encouragement, - e.g. banning or penalizing the use of SUV’s -, until such time as alternative fuels become a feasible option. see W-N Kyoto
The U.S. with 4.6% of the world's population consumes 25% of the world's oil [see EnergyTFR.pdf ] and leads the world in the production of greenhouse gasses. Home to a fifth of the world's population, China, which consumes 4% of the world's daily oil output, is the only country to produces more greenhouse gases than the U.S. However, its unrelenting economic growth fuels a voracious appetite for energy. bbc.co.uk/ asia-pacific/
Tar sands links
Oil Sands video
For a good explanation of bitumen: energy.gov.ab.ca; also for Tar sands basics and guide/tarsands/
"Canadian oil sands: A new force in the world oil market" 06-26-06_oil_sands.pdf
Feb. 1, 2007 An inconvenient truth by Rex Murphy
Park avenue du Parc
Must stop the Mayor
It appears common for some people elected to political office to disregard the wishes of the electorate after the elections. Within the past half century, the local press appears to be more dependent on press releases issued by interested parties than in going to the expense of analytical reporting. It is in this light that the actions and determination of the local citizenry in opposing the renaming of Park Avenue is a refreshing contrast to the stubborn determination by a majority of the elected representatives to disregard the wishes of those who took the trip to the polls to mark their ballot. At the outset, the name-change appeared to be a done deal, however City Hall may be ultimately defeated by the tenacity of the few who have attracted the many including prestigious names like Phyllis Lambert. It should serve as a reminder to both of the importance of the system in which we live and the power of the people to change the way government works. It is important that this reminder was initiated by relatively recent arrivals to Canada, Québec, Montreal, who are in a position to remind us of the power of the electorate vis-à-vis the elected, that we should all cherish. Mayor Tremblay's casual dismissal of the Toponomy Commission as a 'rubber stamp' entity has also backfired; all of a sudden this unknown group of volunteers has become the centre of the attention and appears to be giving very careful consideration to the 500+ submissions received.
It is unfortunate that the unwitting victim of this incident is the Bourassa Family. Robert Bourassa’s contribution to Québec has transformed this province and he should be remembered in a fitting and permanent manner. It is noteworthy that opposition is not to honouring Bourassa's memory, but to the Mayor's arrogance in deciding how to do so. Thus there is growing support amongst the public to develop an attractive alternative such as the plaza proposed by architect Joseph Baker.
Radio
Like the report of Mark Twain's death, reports of the death of radio –at least FM – are greatly exaggerated.
Ségolène Royal
The meeting of the socialist candidate for the presidency of France, Ségolène Royal, with André Boisclair has caused yet another France-Québec dust-up, and one that has been reported widely. It has afforded Jean Charest the opportunity to tell the world that the future of Québec will not be decided beyond our borders, but more significantly, the incident has highlighted an unfortunate series of gaffes on international matters by this otherwise attractive candidate. However, reports from friends in France indicate a feeling that matters are spiralling out of control and the governing UMP party candidate, Nicolas Sarkozy, is much more likely to impose control. Offsetting that is that the Conservative candidate represents a more pro-Atlantic viewpoint, which is unpopular in much of France. [non wvent]
The presidential race in the U.S.
In the United States, despite Barack Obama’s current popularity, and depending on the choice of Republican candidates, some Wednesday-Nighters see Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton being nominated over Obama, however others believe that the U.S. may not be ready to elect a woman, while still others believe that Senator Clinton has made too many enemies, perhaps by being too strong.
Canadian elections
One Wednesday Nighter predicts no federal election this year, but an election in Québec to be called right after the budget, producing a major Liberal victory. The PQ is losing some very influential members and there is a reluctance for high-profile individuals to become candidates.
Oil prices
The deployment of a second U.S. Navy aircraft carrier group in the Gulf does not bode well for peace and stability in the region. This could well cause a large hike in oil prices with hedge funds leading the charge to buy oil futures. Hugo Chavez, not the most stable inividual, could well make matters worse. Libya's unfailing tendency to cheat on its quotas might, however modify some of the consequences of any OPEC attempt to reduce output.
Private clinics and Québec healthcare
It is unfortunate that the Québec health care system which is excellent in quality, lacks adequate access. The failure of the government to provide timely access to the system has led to a small but expanding number of private clinics, which, if left unchecked, will ultimately erode the public system. It is to be hoped that the message will become clear to the government and that steps will be taken to provide us with the accessible, quality medical care that we expect, deserve and pay for. It is indispensable that we learn how to harness ideas and practices from the private system to make the public sector work better (something that the McGill Faculty of Management is addressing). Patient-centered collective bargaining would contribute to an efficient system. There is much to be learned from both the British and Australian systems. Medi Care
The State of the Union Message
Mixed opinions on the quality and content of the speech, however it was agreed that generally it exceeded peoples' expectations.
"I have the same reaction to this year’s energy proposals in the State of the Union that I had to last year’s. President Bush had the opportunity to launch America on a transformative new path for clean, efficient power. He had a chance for a “Nixon to China” moment — as the Texas oilman who leads us into a greener future. Instead, he gave us “Nixon to New Mexico” — right direction, but not nearly far enough."
(Friedman Jan 26)
What will happen to the price of oil?
Real estate
Canadian dollar is expected to decline against its U.S. counterpart.
The economy
See also JACQUES CLEMENT: Pages ON THE ECONOMY
January 24, 2007- for next three months
CANADA
After losing 564 points (December 14 - January 10), the T.S.X. has recovered over 550 points since, including over 300 points in the last two days and is 11 points away from its December 14 record of 13,022. Crude oil, which traded at $50½ U.S. on January 16, a twenty month low and declining 17% year to date, has recovered to $55½ U.S. on the U.S. doubling the size of their strategic petroleum reserves to 1.5 billion barrels in the months ahead as well as rising tensions in Nigeria and Iran, OPEC cutting production on February 1 and colder weather outlook. Natural gas has rebounded. Gold has also recovered $41.00 since January 6 to over $648.00 U.S, as the U.S. dollar weakened from $1.29 U.S. to over $1.30 U.S. against the Euro. Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at 4¼% on January 16, with retail sales declining close to 2% (September-October). Inflation increased moderately in the last two months of the year to 1.6%. Core inflation declined to 2%. Bank of Canada expects the C.P.I. to remain very moderate this year, assuming $56.00-$58.00 U.S. crude prices in the first half and $61.00 U.S. in the second half and a Canadian dollar at 84½¢ cents U.S. to 87½¢ trading range. They have revised the fourth quarter G.D.P. down sharply from 2.8% to 1.5% following 1.7% growth in the third quarter. The outlook for the first half this year appears optimistic at 2.5% as they are looking for 2%-2½% growth in the U.S. for the same period. Manufacturing shipments have rebounded 2½% in October-November, new orders 4.8%, unfilled orders by 2.8% and inventories rose moderately. Inventories remain high, particularly in manufacturing (auto sector) and housing. Productivity continues to be weak. Exports recovered almost 3% in November. The Canadian dollar reached a fourteen month low on Monday. Hourly wages have eased to 2½%-3½%, from 3½%-4% in the fall. Consumer demand will remain strong as is the tight labour market. Housing will be negative on the G.D.P. this year. Housing starts tumbled almost 8% in December. Bank of Canada might have to ease policy before mid-year.
U.S.
The Dow-Jones closed today at a new record high of 12,622 despite the severe run-up of crude prices and higher commodity prices. Corporate profits growth is expected at over 9½% with price- earnings ratio of 15.5. G.D.P. for the fourth quarter is now expected at over 3% given the rebound in manufacturing, better housing numbers since November, strong fourth quarter employment, a three year high in Michigan consumer sentiment, inflation (December) growing at the slowest pace in three years, fairly strong consumer spending (+1½% in November-December), record exports leading to a decline of 8½ % in the trade deficits to $58 billion, a 50% reduction in the fiscal deficit (three years ahead of target) and a rise in December leading economic indicators, particularly in construction activities, real money supply, record stock market, vendor performance and manufacturing, excluding defence. Bank of Canada has revised down to 3%, the U.S. non-inflationary growth potential. With core inflation unchanged at 2.6% in December, the Federal reserve should keep its Fed Funds steady at 5¼% when they meet for two days next week. They are likely to ease in the third quarter.
Outlook: Jan 10th
click for video to Wed1299 24 Jan 07
Near Term Trading Outlook:
Notes by Herb Bercovitz OWN
Editor: Diana Thébaud Nicholson OWN
Radio, the long-lasting treasure
intro Wed1299 | Wed1299 slide show
Oil
Note
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QUOTES of the EVENING from recent
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Past Quotes Best or All
W-N Links for #1299
2007 Notes for #1299
8 June 2007 rci EDMONTON: ENVIRONMENTAL LOBBY HAS OILSANDS IN ITS SIGHTS
The Natural Resources Defence Council has announced it will launch a publicity campaign in the U.S. to make Americans realize how harmful the production and use of oil originating in Canada's oilsands is to the environment. The environmental advocate has drawn up a report that is aimed at promoting U.S. regulations that discourage use of fuels that general high volumes of greenhouse gases. The document summarizes objections to oilsands developments that are familiar to many Canadians but less so to Americans, such as the complaint that the developments devastate vast areas of boreal forest and drain and pollute watersheds. The report also notes that one barrel of oil made from bitumen generates three times more greenhouse gas than a barrel of conventionally-produced oil. Two-thirds of Canadian oil is exported southwards and major American multinational energy firms like Conoco Phillips and Chevron Texaco have major oilsands investments. The lobby recommends low-carbon fuel standards like those in effect in California. Alberta's energy department says, however, that provincial officials regularly meet with U.S. government officials and says they have recognized that Alberta's energy industry is a sustainable and well-managed source of energy. more
Wed1306 Sunday Mar 11, 2007
Climate Change is rarely off the Wednesday Night menu these days and lo! the media, with the Gazette in the lead, are gasping (in shock and awe) "Expect water shortage in 20 years" http://tinyurl.com/3d7ws5
In fairness, this fourth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (or IPCC to the groupies) contains far starker warnings than the previous assessments. At least Europe is paying serious attention with signature of an agreement on plans to reduce Member states' ecological footprints. economist.com
On a related topic, and one which is frequently discussed on Wednesday Night , last week Global TV broadcast an extensive report, "Promise Land", on the oil boom in Alberta including consideration of the geopolitical and environmental issues of development of the tar sands, and the impact on greenhouse gas emissions (Click on Monday's Report on: Promise Land)
Thursday 15 February 2007
Carbon trading would hit 40% of TSX: report
Companies representing 40 per cent of the Toronto Stock Exchange's total market capitalization would be directly affected by a legislated system of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caps and trading, and that impact will be negative for most of them, a new report from CIBC World Markets says.
....They said the oil and gas and utility sectors, together with industrial-processing operations such as metal smelting and refining, account for almost half the GHG emissions in Canada. “Those emissions would be the prime targets of any Canadian cap-and-trade system,” they said.
... Oil sands ranked second, even though they accounted for only 3.5 per cent of Canada's total GHG emissions in 2004. Mr. Rubin and Mr. Tal said the planned massive expansion of oil sands production will sharply increase the sector's emissions, even though the industry has been significantly improving its emission intensity and has scope to continue to do so.
Thursday 25 January 2007 Senate Panel Rejects Bush’s Plan for Iraq
Thursday 18 January 2007 Clinton calls for more U.S. troops in Afghanistan
U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton called Wednesday for more American troops in Afghanistan while putting a cap on the number of U.S. soldiers deployed in Iraq.
Globalisation and the rise of inequality
Rich man, poor man
Jan 18th 2007
From The Economist print edition A poisonous mix of inequality and sluggish wages threatens globalisation
GLUERS and sawyers from the furniture factories in Galax near the mountains of Virginia lost their jobs last year when American retailers decided they could find a better supplier in China. At the other end of the furniture industry Robert Nardelli lost his job this month when Home Depot decided it could find a better chief executive in his deputy. But any likeness ends there. Mr Nardelli's exit was as extravagantly rewarded as his occupation of the corner office had been. Next to his $210m severance pay, the redundant woodworkers' packages were mean to the point of provocation.
Rex Murphy's
Point of View index
Menu to mitworld.mit.edu/ on-demand videos of significant public events at MIT. in RealPlayer
Ex Thomas L. Friedman. While you were Seeping The World IS Flat Video length is 1:15:04.
 Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Oil Relief Still Leaves Policy Quandary - January 24, 2007
Consumers and companies alike are breathing a sigh of relief at lower oil prices – except those in the oil patch, of course. The question is, how will this relief affect the economic outlook? Past issues | his WN page
Wednesday-Night.com on Privacy
Canadian dollar vs euro | Dow 30 w-n chart | TSX
Paul Martin | Stevie Harper
see also Wednesday-Night.com MedicalNotes
Wed1299 24 Jan 2006
with John Herity with Dr .Judith Patterson and Dr. Antal Tony Deutsch OWN [page] , and Dr. Hing Hum |
Martin Barnes OWN and Dr. Mark Roper OWN O.W.N. in photos John Curtin and Udo Stundner OWN, our Swiss Banker and Anne Coleman and Claudia Viereck, MBA and Sheila Arnopoulos from Mike Marie Griffiths
Brian Morel's plea for Help on th 25th 2:17 then
Diana slides on Wed1299
Notes by Herb Bercovitz and click for Wed1299Report | Wed1299 photos slides
| Jacques Report 23 Jan 2007 7:11 An inconvenient truth by Rex Murphy
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BBC
Video (Runs 4:07) 
; "DTN Chair by Robert J. Galbraith")
; "click for Diana Nicholson OWN")
 "Louise des Trois Maisons")
; "click Jacques Clément OWN")
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