Jonas Lightfoot vd Ferest 10:05 Unlisted movie
There is little if any doubt that Hubbert’s peak is real and has been attained and that we have reached the era of ever-increasing cost and difficulty of extracting petroleum. The unique aspect of petroleum pricing is that oil from all sources is sold at the (same) highest price, independent of the cost of extraction. As eighty-five percent of oil produced is used in transportation, increasingly important, given the expansion and increasing affluence of the world’s population, an alternative must be found. And, one Wednesday Nighter reminds us, while people talk about oil, they forget the derivatives, the polymers and plastics for which the market is huge. He maintains that the world will have to adjust its lifestyle, seek alternative energy sources and be prepared for a slowdown.
The atmospheric and health dangers of coal as fuel have been well documented. Considering the incredible amount of energy required to keep goods and people moving around the world, such options as geothermal and solar energies have very limited application.
However well intentioned, complete implementation of the Kyoto protocol would have very little atmospheric effect without implementation by India and China; would likely affect the world economy adversely [bbc], and would buy the world but a few years of unwarranted complacency, in the absence of providing a long-term solution. Kyoto is said to have the appearance of having been politically rather scientifically inspired. Nonetheless, the cost of doing nothing today must be measured in both financial and human terms.
- If every country met their obligations under the Kyoto protocol, we would only gain 10 years
- There is no technology that will make it possible to achieve the Kyoto targets
- Why not ban all SUVs – surely that would make a huge dent in emissions and fuel consumption
- Solar radiation reaching Earth has declined ten percent since the 1980s, due to global dimming, largely due to emissions from China
[Editor's note: The discussion on global dimming was incomplete and inconclusive, therefore, we felt it useful to include additional information for the participants.
"Dimming appears to be caused by air pollution. Burning coal, oil and wood, whether in cars, power stations or cooking fires, produces not only invisible carbon dioxide (the principal greenhouse gas responsible for global warming) but also tiny airborne particles of soot, ash, sulphur compounds and other pollutants.
"This visible air pollution reflects sunlight back into space, preventing it reaching the surface. But the pollution also changes the optical properties of clouds. Because the particles seed the formation of water droplets, polluted clouds contain a larger number of droplets than unpolluted clouds. Recent research shows that this makes them more reflective than they would otherwise be, again reflecting the Sun's rays back into space.
"Scientists are now worried that dimming, by shielding the oceans from the full power of the Sun, may be disrupting the pattern of the world's rainfall. There are suggestions that dimming was behind the droughts in sub-Saharan Africa which claimed hundreds of thousands of lives in the 1970s and 1980s. There are disturbing hints the same thing may be happening today in Asia, home to half the world's population. 'My main concern is global dimming is also having a detrimental impact on the Asian monsoon,' says Prof Veerhabhadran Ramanathan, one of the world's leading climate scientists. 'We are talking about billions of people.'
"But perhaps the most alarming aspect of global dimming is that it may have led scientists to underestimate the true power of the greenhouse effect. They know how much extra energy is being trapped in the Earth's atmosphere by the extra carbon dioxide (CO2) we have placed there. What has been surprising is that this extra energy has so far resulted in a temperature rise of just 0.6°C." bbc.co.uk/ dimming]
What about hydro power? If we were to develop all the hydro power in the world, we would have only a small portion of the energy we currently require. Furthermore, the remaining undeveloped potential hydro power lies largely in relatively flat countries, like Brazil. The floodplains that would have to be developed would require flooding forests, producing methane and thus contributing to global warming. Another issue raised by the Sierra Club in the U.S. is the destruction by dams of vital ecosystems, the migratory paths of fish and of spawning grounds with consequent harm to human health .oregon.sierraclub.pdf.
The only viable option appears to continue to be nuclear energy with fast breeder reactors. Is there enough uranium to supply nuclear reactors? Opinions vary as to the availability of uranium; one mining engineer suggests that there is a 500-year supply. An estimated forty thousand nuclear warheads around the world are gradually being phased out; their fuel is being reprocessed to fuel nuclear reactors. Dr. John Jonas points to the development of thorium periodic.lanl.gov/elements/– "and there's lots of it around" (three to four times more than uranium) as an alternative to uranium. The oceans are a rich source of uranium (estimated at 4.3 billion tonnes), which the Japanese are currently attempting to harness.
The obvious dilemma is the use of nuclear energy to power the transportation sector, currently using eighty-five percent of the energy. Ships can and some (principally warships) do use nuclear energy. Road vehicles can run on hydrogen produced from water using nuclear energy, but aircraft remain dependent on petroleum.
- If we are careful, we might have enough oil for road and air transport for 100 years
- At the winter Olympics in Whistler, they will have hydrogen fuelled busses- this can be the answer for cars, but the requirement for nuclear plants dedicated to making the hydrogen is so great that it is unlikely to be met before the end of the century
Some concern has been expressed about the cost and means of disposal of nuclear waste. Whereas waste from thermal reactors must be safely stored for ten thousand years, spent fuel from more efficient fast reactors degrades in five hundred years. A unique aspect of nuclear fuel is that the cost of disposal is included in the calculation of the production cost of nuclear energy released, contrary to the disposal costs of waste products of carbon-based energy sources, which are shared by the countries of the world in terms of pulmonary problems and other illnesses, smog and climate change.
France has had an impressive nuclear program for somle time, claimed to be economically viable, but it is so heavily subsidized that the real costs are unknown. The French government has more recently, become somewhat concerned as to whether it is really economical and there is some talk of slowing down the program. [See Editor's note below] However, on Monday, May 21, Alain Juppé, who heads the superministry in charge of the environment, transport and energy policy, told reporters there would be no compromise on Sarkozy's promise to promote nuclear energy, which already accounts for 80 percent of French power generation. The fact that France will pursue its electro-nuclear program is not a compromise; it is a decision. reuters./worldNews
[Editor's note: The International Herald Tribune published on May 20 a thoughtful piece on nuclear energy and climate change, pointing to the problems caused by warming of the rivers from which many plants derive the cool water, and the effect on fish and plant life of the return of warmer waste water to those same rivers. "If temperatures soar above average this summer - let alone steadily increase in years to come, as many scientists predict - many nuclear plants could face a dilemma: Either cut output or break environmental rules, in either case hurting their reputation with customers and the public."]
Probably, the greatest fear on the part of the population since the accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl is the accidental eradication of most if not all of the world’s population or at least, that of their particular place of residence. Multiple layers of safety features are currently built into reactors, but attainment of zero probability of accident is impossible. The safety features at Three Mile Island worked and there were no casualties. Three Mile Island was a success. It suffered a partial core meltdown, eventually the reactor was brought under control and, although approximately 25,000 people lived within five miles of the island, no identifiable injuries due to radiation occurred. None of this, however, stemmed the tide of the public's negative reaction.
Chernobyl was a totally different situation. The main problem was a confluence of situations while the operators were conducting a test; despite warnings of a danger situation, they continued with disastrous results The reactor in question, a graphite moderator reactor, was designed specifically to produce plutonium, and the graphite caught fire.
The risk is much lower than death from exhaust gases and the uranium that is released from mining coal.
As yet unaddressed as a potential threat to the world’s population is the current shifting of the magnetic pole, bringing with it, unforeseeable changes in climate over the next seventy-five years. This somewhat arcane subject was greeted with reverent silence, in the absence of knowledgeable contributions. For those who wish to know more, NASA is a good place to start
It is predicted that the T.S.X. will continue to outperform the Dow Jones because the U.S. economy is not only sliding, but with the outlook for the first quarter on economic growth at 0.5% - this is a hard landing. Consumers are starting to retrench because of gasoline prices. The housing market tumble is not yet finished. The Federal Reserve may not wait until September to ease monetary policy. The GDP outlook will have to be revised downward – all because of what is happening in the housing market. Alan Greenspan may, once again, be proven right.
This year is witnessing a six percent growth in emerging markets. China and India are expensive, but Latin America, particularly Brazil and Chile are still doing well thanks to better credit and better management of their economies. They used to be exporting economies, now they have domestic economies and they are working harder than we do. Their growth is also due to consumption as their younger populations are educated, more productive and more affluent.
The situation in United States remains better than it might have been as long as China chooses not to revalue its currency which is basically undervalued by 20%. The U.S. stock market would not be doing as well as it is if there was not the record amount of international liquidity leading to buying back of stock and continuing investment, as well as earnings outlook.
In contrast, the Canadian economy has been very robust. However recent reports show a negative employment figure, auto sales are flat, manufacturing orders declined by 1.5% and housing starts by 1%.
Nicolas Sarkozy is expected to try to convince the Germans to join France in trying to convince the European Central Bank not to tighten monetary policy. There is great concern that the strong euro is feeding the high unemployment.
Québec
Pauline Marois has demonstrated herself to be courageous in the face of the political cruelty that she has faced. Under her leadership, given her qualifications, competitive nature and political experience, the P.Q. is expected to experience a renaissance. Her motherly image in contrast to the flamboyant André Boisclair won't hurt her either.
May 18, 2007 Editorial: Rose Garden Charade
Confronted with the growing urgency of the climate change issue, President Bush stepped before the cameras in the Rose Garden the other day and said, essentially, nothing.
This is, in short, yet another of Mr. Bush’s faith-based energy strategies, in which the operative words are “trust me.” The White House says that good regulations need time to develop. That is true, but we would be more inclined to cut Mr. Bush some slack if not for the fact that speedier routes are readily available.
Thursday 16 May 2007 To day NYT Podcast | Menu
Radio
Like the report of Mark Twain's death, reports of the death of radio –at least FM – are greatly exaggerated.
Real estate
Canadian dollar is expected to decline against its U.S. counterpart.
The economy
U.S.
The economy continued weakening and first quarter G.D.P. is likely to be less than 1% when released on May 31, with the trade deficit worsening by 10½% in March to $64 billion as imports rose by 4½%, first quarter decline of 4½% in housing starts, existing home sales by nearly 2%, new home sales by nearly 19% as employment was weak as was capital spending, personal consumption et cetera.. The Dow Jones gained another 125 points this past week to close at a record 13,488 as the earnings outlook is quite favourable (+8%) and record global mergers and acquisitions ($2 trillion) emerged in the last twelve months, a rise of 60% including leveraged buyouts of over $366 billion.
CANADA
The economy is likely to produce first quarter G.D.P. of over 2½% with broad growth in every sector of the economy except auto sales (-4%) (see last week’s report).
Manufacturing new orders weakened by 1.4% in March after rising almost 2% in February, unfilled orders were flat after rising almost 5% and shipments were very strong (+2.8%), led by the auto and aerospace sectors. Employment was negative after 158,000 new jobs were created in the first quarter. Unemployment remained at 6.1%, a thirty-three year low. Non-residential investments rose by 3.3% in the first quarter. The T.S.X. gained 130 points this past week to close at over 14,000 despite gold receding $21.00 to $661.50 and some profit taking in resources except crude oil which gained $1.00 and gasoline prices which are averaging over $3.00 in the U.S. The Canadian dollar strengthened to 91¼¢ U.S., an eleven month high and close to its twenty-nine year record of 91.44¢ U.S.
See also JACQUES CLÉMENT: History Pages ON THE ECONOMY
:Tuesday 22 May 2007 Loonie tops 92 cents
The Canadian dollar traded above 92 cents (U.S.) Tuesday for the first time since October, 1977, on expectations both interest rates and demand for commodities will rise.
The loonie rose to 92.20 cents Tuesday and has risen 1.3 per cent in the past five trading days — making it one of the world's best-performing major currencies.<
The currency's ascent comes a week before the Bank of Canada will make its next decision on interest rates. The central bank has left rates unchanged for a year and is expected to remain steady next Tuesday. Economists will be watching the report for mention of the loonie's 7.5-per-cent surge this year.
Notes by Herb Bercovitz OWN
Editor: Diana Thébaud Nicholson OWN
Radio, the long-lasting treasure
intro Wed1315 | Wed1315 slide show
Oil
Note
Wednesday-Night creates charts and follows stocks, including timely related financial news items, in which Wednesday Nighters are interested and in order to demonstrate a service that could eventually be developed and marketed. Wednesday Nighters are invited to participate and help to test the service.
see Wednesday-Night.com Flip charts
QUOTES of the EVENING from recent
Wednesday Nights
2007
Past Quotes Best or All
W-N Links for #1315
2007 Notes for #1315
David:
Thank you for last night. It was great to meet the people who attended.
Brian and I appreciate the fact that 6 people bought DVDs. You are doing a great job of selling the DVD for us. The people who bought it well certainly view it soon.
It worked well last night. There was time for the necessary explanations.
I checked with the Gazette versions that are on their website May 12 to 17 and could not find my recent letter there. Unless there is something I missed. Maybe it appeared in another addition. At one time, the Gazette would call me before printing a letter, but not anymore. There is a possibility that it can still appear.
I just checked out your web site and you have the letter there as if it were published. You may wish to leave the comments in the letter, but not as a letter to the Gazette.
Your web site looks really good. Thank you for including the comments and the pictures - they look really good. I asked my wife to come down and see them. She is quite impressed.
We will keep you informed about progress. Most of today has been "housekeeping things". We had to replace a printer that died.
I viewed the Rocket X Media Media web site. How do you know them? We have wondered about contacting professional marketers about selling Nobody's Fuel.
Hope Diana had a good time away.
Regards,
Doug
Rex Murphy's
Point of View index
Menu to mitworld.mit.edu/ on-demand videos of significant public events at MIT. in RealPlayer
Ex Thomas L. Friedman. While you were Sleeping The World IS Flat Video length is 1:15:04.
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Loonie's Northern Flight - May 16, 2007
NEW: You can now listen to Weekly Commentary each week as an EDC podcast. To hear an audio version, simply click the "Listen" link, or right-click on the link to save the podcast to your computer.
Last year at this time, the loonie made a dash for the US 90-91 cent range, and many forecasters were expecting it to go much higher, even to parity. Oil prices, then over $70 per barrel, were the main driver, and many expected that they, too, would continue to rise. With each increase in oil prices of $10 likely to add 3 cents to the value of the Canadian dollar, the prospect of $100 oil and a loonie flying at parity with the American eagle seemed possible. Past issues | his WN page
Commentary podcast. 
BBC
; "DTN Chair by Robert J. Galbraith")
; "click for Diana Nicholson OWN")
 "Louise des Trois Maisons")
; "click Jacques Clément OWN")
 "click for Diana T. Nicholson")
; "click for Herb Bercovitz OWN")
Wed1314 report 
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