Read About W-N NP story on W-N Contact W-N and Map Invite to Wed1320 Wednesday Night Salon #1320 20 June Page 2 Introduction The Report Ron Meisels intro Video 2:15 page We invented basketball                                   You adapted it                   We discovered the telephone                          You utilized it We offered a lumber deal                                You axed it We invented the snow blower and    the snowmobile                                              You moved to Florida We are a bilingual country                                You will be We invented Standard Time                             You changed it We sent a mad cow                                          You rejected it We had Marshall McLuhan                              You didn't get the message We invented Java                                            You gave us Starbucks                                                                                                                        Ron Meisels   A new OWN         Taking advantage of the presence of our two distinguished Washington-based OWNs, the Chairman conferred the Order of Wednesday Night on Anne Sophie Coleman, who, sadly, will leave Montreal in a little more than a month for a new assignment at the office of the State Department responsible for intellectual property rights in Asia, including China. Anne Sophie's citation reads: In recognition of your consistent contributions to Wednesday Night discourse, able defense of positions and policies that appear inexplicable to many of those present, willingness to assume with grace and charm the role of Leader [and Decider] of the Country which you represent evincing diplomacy and tact beyond your years  By these presents we do appoint you Honoured Companion of said Order, Envoy Plenipotentiary to the Great Nation to the South and to any other nation where you may reside, and authorized Convener of the Washington Wing of Wednesday Night, and authorize you to hold and enjoy the dignity of such appointment together with membership in the said Order and all privileges thereunto pertaining  David Jones OWN photo imgs  Prologue         It's a Canadian tradition, especially in Québec, a tragicomic opera with scenes of beautifully choreographed dancing by overweight dancers, feigned bravado in the face of overwhelming odds and an unpredictable final scene.  The white knight leads his rag tag army to success after success, dreams of being crowned monarch of his domain.  The rightful heir to the throne, beloved by people who know him, speaks in tongues, his ultimate fate unclear. In a play within the play, the collective guilt of the peasants leads to the coronation of their beloved Queen, previously neglected because, while mesmerized, they had selected one of their own to govern them.   Members of the audience, on the edge of their seats, eagerly await the climax, dénouement and the final curtain call of the season.   U.S.-Canada relations         The atmosphere of U.S.-Canada relations has greatly improved, especially since the replacement of the former Canadian Ambassador, Frank McKenna (in the opinion of one observer, probably the worst Canadian Ambassador to Washington - EVER) by Michael Wilson, who pursues Canadian objectives with grace and diplomacy, combined with firmness when required, thus fulfilling the role of a diplomat to defend (even the most indefensible) positions of his/her government with conviction and without allowing personal or political views to colour such advocacy. John Herity imgs Now I can express views because I am convinced of them and not because I have to Although there are differences between our countries on some international questions such as Iraq, on our bilateral issues, the hardy perennials like Pacific Coast salmon, softwood lumber, mad cows, etc. will continue to be active, but always under negotiation and the subject of flare-ups.  Received wisdom (and experience) has it that the best match of administrations is a Democrat/Liberal and the worst a conservative Republican/Liberal Canada             On the federal scene, to some, the Prime Minister has demonstrated his political astuteness by keeping his caucus on a short leash and making decisions that are popular in Québec, at times, to the detriment of the electors in other, politically less vital provinces. To others, his uncompromising, confrontational [abrasive] style as exemplified in the fight with the Maritime provinces over the offshore resources, his insistence on micromanaging when no matter how clever, no-one can know everything about every issue; his clumsy reversal on global warming; and his refusal to consider a timeline for the end of Canada's military participation in Afghanistan are detrimental to the popularity of his party and his personal image as a good Prime Minister. www.flickr.com More of davidnicholson's photos tagged with Wed1320 Wed 1320 slide show In contrast to Mr. Harper, Stéphane Dion is highly regarded by people who have an opportunity to meet him personally, or work with him; although he is known to be stiff, he is a good listener, empathetic, and determined to modernize the party.    There is access to the Leader of the Opposition and his caucus is laid back and receptive to new ideas from all sources. The gigantic task ahead for Mr. Dion is to meet as many Canadians as possible so that they will be better prepared to gauge his ability to lead the country. Meantime, no party wants an election and (almost) no-one in Ottawa or in the country, believes that the Conservatives could win a majority government at this time.  This uniquely curious minority government could run until 2009 Québec         It was a flawed electoral system that saw André Boisclair elected as leader of the Parti Québécois.  The telephone vote favoured the youth and urban vote, but the result gave rise to the popularity of the young, inexperienced A.D.Q. whose members are totally unprepared politically, to take over the reins of power in Québec.  As for the Québec Liberal Party, Jean Charest has had, unfortunately, considerable time to demonstrate his ineptitude as leader and faces the prospect of opposing a bright, experienced, competent, popular Pauline Marois in the next election if, indeed, the party permits Jean Charest to lead them into the next election.  Under Jacques Parizeau and André Boisclair, the party had drifted away from the philosophy of Réné Lévesque, pushing independence over good government.  It is this orientation that some believe was responsible for the dramatic rise in support for the A.D.Q.  Madame Marois represents a return to the original, more identifiable, distinguishable philosophy of the Parti Québécois.  If her popularity were to result in the total independence of Québec, it would be more acceptable to Anglophones both within Québec and elsewhere in Canada than it has been in the past.  While some believe that the P.Q. is on the decline as the A.D.Q. rises in popularity, the new generation of Quebeckers has arrived without baggage, is highly educated and with an internationalist viewpoint, and hence will be in a better position than its predecessors to come to a rational decision.  However, the political posturing, will, of course continue. Québec has become one of the most successful Francophone societies on the planet We are an independent culture by our language, by our education, economically we are growing stronger and stronger; we don't need to separate from the federation that is supporting the multicultural community that we are Pauline Marois is a great disciple of René Lévesque - she will bring back the principles of social interaction that he espoused ... without the necessity of a strong independence movement. The PQ will become a strong counter-weight It's very hard for a Canadian political leader to exit politics gracefully He (Dumont) had a huge groundswell for lack of an alternative Over the past 15 years, there has been a great change amongst federalists some of whom are now saying that both sides may be better off if they go their separate ways The U.S. political scene         Americans, however, will face an election in November 2008.  The Republicans do not have a viable candidate at this point [today's news of Michael Bloomberg's departure  from the party to become an independent is one more unwelcome twist and turn for Hillary Clinton and other aspirants] making it an election for the Democrats to lose unless the fortunes of the U.S. change in Iraq prior to then.  The Americans would be ready at this point to elect an African American of the stature of Colin Powell but he is not available and Barack Obama has the charisma, but lacks the experience.  Hilary Clinton has all the attributes to win the candidacy but also a lot of negatives. It has been hypothesized that potentially good candidates are unavailable because they have been snapped up by industry.   The Republicans' viable candidate has Mitt Romney's family values; Rudy Giuliani's charisma; John McCain's real heroism and courage; and Fred Thompson's ability to deliver a presidential-style speech - unfortunately this requires conflating all four of these individuals Between Michael Ignatieff, Stephen Harper and Stéphane Dion, Canada is looking pretty good  Whatever the outcome, the bond between the U.S. and Canada will endure as it has through various disagreements throughout history. Sadly, the U.S. increasingly appears to accept the improbability of eventual victory in Iraq and an early withdrawal appears likely, despite the fact that the current Commander is excellent and a victory, however improbable at this point would renew the possibility of breathing new life into the Republican Party.  In retrospect, Saddam Hussein was a blowhard and his empty bravado led to his own personal downfall.  The internecine fighting in Iraq may very well be the result of a common problem of borders drawn along geographic or geometric rather than ethnic lines, a problem that may very well painfully resolve itself following the withdrawal of Coalition troops. Examination of the situation with the benefit of hindsight suggests that it was one of the most outstanding intelligence failures in history.      The American and Canadian economies                  It is usual for humans to predict the future by projecting past experience, frequently with inaccurate results. (To further explore the role of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact, The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb  is highly recommended.) The rising deficit in the U.S. combined with the slump in the housing market, negative rate of personal savings, and anticipated number of retiring baby boomers claiming old age and Medicare benefits has resulted in predictions of doom for the U.S. economy.  North Americans are working longer than they have historically Retiring baby boomers have inherited a considerable amount of money from their parents and in cashing in their RRSPs, it is possible that they will provide government with additional revenue more than adequate to cover the increased medical costs involved in sustaining an aging population   The average North American spends 90% of their health dollar in the last six months of their life We have a tendency to plan school closings even though there is currently a baby boom giving us a six-year lead time in school planning and a source of a future booming economy As population declines, productivity, of necessity, increases  In the mid-twentieth century, only half the population was employed without long-term disastrous effect on the economy   The Canadian economy         The forecast is for continued growth in the stock market until mid-August at which time a mild correction of ten to twelve percent is anticipated.  While we should continue to expect major fluctuations, the price of petroleum is heading towards one hundred dollars.  The oil patch is unhappy about the recent tax ruling on income trusts, which hit the energy sector hard, but the income trust units are quietly being bought up cheaply in anticipation of their privatization and subsequent takeovers prior to the expiry of their tax benefit. If the Bank of Canada is worried by the increased value of the dollar, David Dodge should do nothing in July, stand pat and not change the interest rates. As only Alberta is showing rising inflation, raising interest rates, would be a gesture to alleviate the situation there and of no benefit to the national economy. In an unrelated development in Alberta, it is noteworthy that the large emitters of CO2 are no longer debating the underlying logic, but are preparing for the new regime under which they will be paying for emissions.               The recently released Conference Board of Canada report How Canada Performs:  A Report Card on Canada  paints a dismal picture of Canada's ability to keep up with the top performers in the new global economy. This gloomy outlook is supported by the lively new book by Andrea Mandel-Campbell, Why Mexicans Don't Drink Molson, a stunning condemnation of Canada's inability to seize an opportunity to go global, or at the very least, international. Ms Mandel-Campbell will be speaking next Wednesday at a luncheon meeting of the University Club. On the following day, The Canada Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars   and the Canada Institute for North American Issues   is launching in Washington the latest issue of One Issue, Two Voices. Featuring: Glen Hodgson of the Conference Board of Canada and Jack Triplett of the Brookings Institution, this edition is devoted to Canada-U.S. Competitiveness: The Productivity Gap   Monday 25 June 2007 Why Jacques is in Kennebunk? • VLADIMIR PUTIN will be welcomed to George Bush's family home in Kennebunkport, a charming Maine coastal town, on Thursday July 1st. The visit is supposed to calm the Russian's anger about America’s proposed missile-defence system for Europe. Mr Putin recently suggested placing a shared missile-defence radar in Azerbaijan, an offer which Mr Bush called “interesting”. But the Americans want to put the installations in Poland and the Czech Republic, both NATO countries. The Russian and American presidents may at least manage to disagree politely Videos Glenn Goucher & Mkt Wed1320 2:15 1320_David Jones_Glen_US-CD Glenn Goucher Ron Oil-$100 Dee long Income Trust At Wed1320 6:51 1320_David_Terry_Jones_01.wmv At Wed1320 7:30 Terry BlackSwan David Colin Powell June 2007 Chinese Equity Overview Video Aberdeen Asset Managers Ltd, Friday NYT Podcast on cell ohones | Menu Monday Jun 25, 2007 FP Podcast on cell ohones | Menu Radio Like the report of Mark Twain's death, reports of the death of radio –at least FM – are greatly exaggerated. Sunday 29 July 2007ME fires up carbon futures launch With Chicago climate exchange Demand growing for green derivatives The Montreal Exchange yesterday gave the long-awaited green light to the launch of a carbon futures contract in partnership with the Chicago Climate Exchange, confident it can lock on to growing demand for environmental derivative products. Real estate Bulletin Board Canadian dollar is expected to decline against its U.S. counterpart. The economy See also JACQUES CLEMENT: Pages ON THE ECONOMY Previous Videos Notes by Herb Bercovitz OWN Editor: Diana Thébaud Nicholson OWN Radio, the long-lasting treasure intro Wed1320 | Wed1320 slide show Oil DTN OWN more Louise | DTN Diana Nicholson OWN slides | hands | all | & Louise 3-M slides | albums | all Jacques Clément OWN slides Gerald Ratzer OWN Note Wednesday-Night creates charts and follows stocks, including timely related financial news items, in which Wednesday Nighters are interested and in order to demonstrate a service that could eventually be developed and marketed. Wednesday Nighters are invited to participate and help to test the service. see Wednesday-Night.com Flip charts QUOTES of the EVENING from recent Wednesday Nights 2007 From #1320 invite It’s not a Bush problem, it’s an American problem. He is playing double or nothing. He is trying to shift the responsibility from the Coalition to the Iraqis New York City has more police officers than Iraq has troops More Quotes Short | Full List www.flickr.com This is a Flickr badge showing public photos from davidnicholson tagged with diananicholson. Make your own badge here. Diana Nicholson Past Quotes Best or All Mouse bio see Diana show hands | RJG | Album Herb Bercovitz OWN Galbraith imges his page See slides | Album and Art slides | Album W-N Links for #1320 a NewYorker Cartoon every 30 sec. see w-n Right Menu => Harper's Home 2007 Notes for #1320 Wednesday 18 July 2007 Canadas and Qubec in July 2007 by David T. Jones .... In accord with the historical expectation for a minority government (12-18 months), the Tories projected that having addressed these topics as effectively as possible, they would go to the electorate to seek a majority government. Wrong. more stories by David Jones Rex Murphy's Point of View index Wed 27/06/2007 ECONOMIC NEWS Orders for U.S. durable goods fell more than forecast in May, casting doubt on the strength of a projected rebound in business investment. Demand for goods meant to last several years fell 2.8%, the first drop in four months, after a revised 1.1% gain in April that was larger than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment, orders dropped 1% after rising 2.5%. The decline was led by fewer orders for aircraft, metals, and machinery. A reluctance to buy new equipment, along with a lingering housing slump, may call into question Federal Reserve forecasts for gradual improvement in the economy the rest of this year, economists said. Policy makers, meeting today and tomorrow, are projected to hold interest rates unchanged. “This raises a red warning flag over the prospects for economic growth as we approach the second half,'' Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said before the report. “The economy will not be primed for a long-lasting recovery without business-investment spending because the consumer cannot do it all on their own.'' Economists forecast durable goods would fall 1% after an initially reported 0.8% rise in April. excluding transportation equipment, orders were forecast to rise 0.2%, after a previously reported 1.9% gain. MONTLY ECONOMIC MONITOR: JULY & AUGUST 2007 North American equities have been propelled in 2007 by two drivers, earnings growth and a global M&A boom. But rising interest rates have lately knocked the bulls off their pace. A selloff in the first days of June was followed by a solid rebound in the next few days. Was the stock market right the first time – higher long rates will derail the bull market – or was this a temporary scare like all the others of the last five years? Years of low interest rates created the perfect environment for several higher-risk asset classes. With long-term real return bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury yielding less than 2.5% or even 2% since 2002, many pension funds and insurance companies have understandably turned to riskier asset classes in search of higher returns. Now that many central banks (including China’s) are tightening simultaneously, nominal and real interest rates seem to be rising across the yield curve. The rise in real long rates could lead to repricing of many asset classes. Since we expect M&A activity to continue cooling and earnings downgrades to intensify as U.S. economic growth slows and the Canadian currency appreciates, we continue to underweight North American equities. Our one-year target for the S&P/TSX remains 12800, 16 times 12-month estimated earnings of 800. Our 12 month target for the S&P remains 1500, 16 times expected earnings of 94. In sector rotation, to protect our portfolio from higher interest rates, we continue to be cautious on Energy, Materials and Information Technology. We have downgraded Utilities in view of likely Bank of Canada tightening. We continue to believe that Telecommunications and Consumer Discretionary stocks will outperform the market. Menu to mitworld.mit.edu/ on-demand videos of significant public events at MIT. in RealPlayer Ex Thomas L. Friedman. While you were Seeping The World IS Flat Video length is 1:15:04. Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary Is it really different this time? - June 27, 2007 Financial markets are priced for perfection, with each warning brushed off by investors. Should we be more worried, or is it really different this time? Past issues | his WN page Commentary podcast. Wednesday-Night.com on Privacy Canadian dollar vs euro | Dow 30 w-n chart | TSX Fed Parties Stéphan Dion | Stevie Harper see also Wednesday-Night.com MedicalNotes Would you like to the Computer Box Click Here To Add Wed1320page2.asp To Your Favorites More Info About... Read Cookie for Site David JonesOWN Terry Jones OWN Wed1320 20 June 2007 with the Jones also had Ron Meisels OWN on air with 3 new stocks RJG photos, and | show with the good photos with talk about mkts with Glenn Goucher then The American and Canadian economies   It is usual for humans to predict the future by projecting past experience, frequently with inaccurate results. (To further explore the role of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact, The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb  is highly recommended.) The rising deficit in the U.S. combined with the slump in the housing market, negative rate of personal savings, and anticipated number of retiring baby boomers claiming old age and Medicare benefits has resulted in predictions of doom for the U.S. economy.  Danny van Gelder on camera Can we afford Kyoto? and then Gerald Ratzer OWN, and Wed1320 flickr with Jacques Clément OWN. -Report. Notes by Herb Bercovitz and see click for Wed1320Report | show Videos Ron Meisels intro Video 2:15 Glenn Goucher & Mkt Wed1320 2:15 1320_David Jones_Glen_US-CD Glenn Goucher Ron Oil-$100 Dee Income T. 6:51 1320_David_Terry_Jones_01.wmv At Wed1320 7:30 Terry BlackSwan David Colin Powell NYT Podcast Fri 22 June | 24 weekend biz | 21st | Wednessday 20th | 19th | 18th | 15th | Fri 14th June | Menu Please click here to see new/updated pages since last visit www.iedm.org/ coming Events Wed1317 report Wed1320 invite Wed1319 invite The views above are neither those of the authors nor the owner of the website, but merely reflect discussions that took place on this evening