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African Children's Program 2 Sep 2007 Montreal


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#1330 29 Aug 2007

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#1330 27 29 Aug Page 2

  • African Children's Choir Hosted Catherine Gillber 29 Aug 2007 5:22 page

    Introduction


    Chil Heward
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    Chapleau aout07

    The Report
    Prologue

    If one were asked to define the major concerns of the world in which we live, the list would probably include climate change, wars and genocide, human rights, poverty, lack of education, especially the education of young girls and women, the disparity between the wealthy and the poverty-stricken and possibly, proselytizing and claims of superiority by religious groups.
    Religion often appears to be at the root of most, if not all of these problems; it is a tool employed by vocal, efficient and ruthless minorities to influence government and exercise control over a majority that is generally inclined to be tolerant. There is little regard for improving the lot of the majority. Meanwhile, western-based Christian religious groups in Africa are attempting to make a dent in the poverty and lack of education of women, offering hope, charity and faith without seeking to influence the political sector. In other countries, some political leaders in order to maintain or strengthen their personal power attempt to transform political philosophy into quasi religions, as did the National Socialist (Nazi) party in pre-war Germany. At a more basic level in some areas, tribal or racial differences, however small they may appear to an outsider, are used as an excuse to achieve dominance of one group, often generating the most brutal genocidal conflicts (Ivory Coast); as is now happening in Darfur, these can morph into killings among rival “gangs” that have nothing to do with the original excuse. Whatever form conflict takes, the end result is never an improvement in the lot of the poor.

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    Although most religions profess to a belief in man’s stewardship of Nature’s bounty, the strife provoked in the name of whatever god threatens life on earth. The destruction of farmland and habitats, poisoning of sources of drinking water are obvious, However, a large part of the world’s environmental problems is a function of population growth which itself, bears an inverse relationship to affluence. Affluent families tend to have fewer offspring. In short, those who deny education and influence to those over whom they exercise dominance, are major contributors to the early demise of life on earth in addition to the misery of the group that they control.

    While the Religious Right is getting most of the media attention in the U.S., there is also a Religious Left that is just as grounded in its faith as the Right
    What is truly frightening is that each of these religious groups tries to use its government to enforce a certain religious view - we have freedom of religion, but we need freedom from religion
    Canada has failed to draw a distinction between religious expression (opinion) and religious manifestation

    A good news story
    Overcoming the ravages of war and combating poverty require effort, dedication and ingenuity. In the case of some African children orphaned by poverty and/or the AIDS pandemic hope takes the form of children’s choirs of which there are now about 40. The African Children’s Choir™ which recently visited Montreal recruits the children aged 7-12 principally from villages in Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan and Uganda. The choirs organized by Christian churches tour the world, raising money for orphanages and schools in their own countries. The children are accompanied by teachers so that they attend school every day on tour. This group is based in North Carolina for a year where the children spend two months followed by two months touring, etc. After a year away, those who have reached the age of 12 “retire” and continue their schooling in Africa until the age of 16. To one observer, the children appeared happy, well-adjusted and very well-mannered.

    The new financial (dis)order - views on the subprime crisis

    In a world of overconfidence, fear makes a welcome return

     

    (Fortune Magazine) — For the past five years risk has been the invisible man on Wall Street. Banks, hedge funds, and lenders behaved as if home prices always rise, borrowers never miss a payment, and companies never blunder into bankruptcy.
    Now a crisis of confidence that began with subprime mortgage defaults is sweeping the Street, and risk is invisible no more. Banks are wobbling, markets are quaking, and ordinary investors are wondering how badly they’ll be hurt. Risk, as always, will exact its revenge.

    (Business Week) — “…the current volatility may herald a shift from an era of risk-taking prompted by low rates to a more risk-averse investing world.”

    The month of August is traditionally highly volatile. True to form, this month the world finance roller coaster came to a predictable, thrilling but frightening drop, raising the spectre of past disasters. We now have a stretched credit cycle which ultimately leads to a savage downturn - and that has happened. However as history does repeat itself, we will most certainly recover from the current succession of overconfidence, greed and fear. The market crisis, which had, in fact, been predicted, may not be resolved rapidly. Investors had had little knowledge about the companies in which they were investing. Never before has this fact or the relative strength of currencies shaped markets. A correction was needed which will form the basis of the next speculative up-leg.
    Many are understandably puzzled by the direct impact on the world economy of the subprime mortgage collapse. The world has changed from the time when the only large financial centres were London and New York. There has been an unparalleled growth in the financial industry. With Alan Greenspan’s pushing down of interest rates, there was pressure to increase yields for investors. Universities are producing MBAs at an astonishing rate and when these people are hired, their ticket to fame and fortune is to invent new products which sometimes turn out to be not what they were purported to be. After a while, people begin to question what the asset is that is backing the new product and decide that it is not as solid an investment as they had believed; then everything begins to unwind. Obviously the growth of a number of financial centers around the world, coupled with instant communications technologies exacerbates any such problem.

     

    Excessive creativity in the financial sector can generally be counted on to create problems

    The packaging of the subprime risk by mortgage lenders and investment bankers to guarantee that the risk would be widely spread is largely at fault. A number of years ago, it was the local Branch Manager who evaluated the loan request, followed the fortunes of the borrower closely, and was accountable for the evolution of the fortunes of the entrepreneur. More recently, however, loans are granted centrally, bundled and sold through intermediaries as Asset backed Commercial paper (ABCs) to a buyer who believes he has a secured loan in his portfolio. A recipe for disaster in a downturn such as we are now experiencing.
    Another three years of downturn is predicted in the housing market in the U.S. which is on the verge of a recession if the consumer becomes more frightened. We may be entering a consolidation phase. It is impossible to keep the numbers going, but the greed factor over the last quarter led investors to throw out the fundamentals.
    Canada is relatively safe because our commodities are needed for infrastructure over the entire world. Canadian banks have not been doing as well as they have in the recent past, largely due to the evolution of the manner in which they granted loansand we need to keep an eye on what is happening with the troubled asset-backed commercial paper held by mutual funds, corporations, universities, etc.


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    Global wealth will act as an economic shock absorber over the next few months. We are entering a period of slow economic growth, which is beginning to hit Europe and people are coming back to their senses indicating growth at a reasonable rate.
    For the investor, preservation of capital is essential. We don’t know enough about the subprime loans, hedge funds, derivatives, short positions or other major problems that are lurking. There is evidence of banking problems in Europe. Expect the unexpected. Currency and interest rates will be the key. Nonetheless, world growth and liquidity will temper the slump; there is a lot of money on the sidelines ready to plunge again and for those who pick stocks carefully, using value as the deciding factor there is good reason to remain optimistic.
    Opportunities still abound. Everybody talks about China but that country represents only six percent of the world’s GDP - there is booming growth in Southeast Asia, Japan’s current account surplus has just hit record highs. The pendulum is swinging away from the United States towards Southeast Asia. Emerging markets continue to be strong. Don’t forget that about 2.5 billon people have joined the economic system over the last years; women in these countries are making great advances to the benefit of the economies of those nations.
    Investors, too, have become more mature in risk assessment and computers have become a factor in investment quality and volume as well as in volatility. As yet to be realized in Canada is the need for one federal, rather than multiple provincial regulatory bodies to govern securities trading. There is still the question in the broader context of the troubling lack of transparency in financial markets of whether it is even feasible to establish an international regulatory body.

    Foreign ownership - is it all that bad?
    A source of concern to some is the change of ownership of Canadian companies to foreign investors and the consequent impact on members of the service industries: lawyers, accountants, communications experts. It has been predicted that even the Alberta Oil Sands may be bought by foreign interests in the foreseeable future. However, it has been pointed out that this represents a healthy evolution in a mature economy, with new entrepreneurs arising, establishing corporations that will replace those that have been internationalized. An increasingly large number of M.B.A.’s are graduating and Canada is coming of age in that domain. It is to be hoped that they will learn to manage more aggressively than many of today’s who regard their companies as an asset to be held only until the right takeover bid comes along.

    Francesco Bellini is one outstanding example of Canadian entrepreneurship. Founder of BioChem Pharma, which he sold to Shire Pharmaceuticals Group plc of the UK for nearly $6 billion, he is now CEO of Neurochem, originator of Alzhemed a medication designed to slow the onset Alzheimer’s Disease. So impressive was the original research that it was granted fast-tracking by the F.D.A. but the company has announced that it has to shelve two-and-a-half years’ worth of data pertaining to Alzhemed, because trial results proved inconclusive.
    Whether or not Alzhemed ever reaches the market, Dr.Bellini’s story represents an example of how Canadians should act in the international entrepreneurial race, replacing the mature companies that have slipped from Canadian ownership.

    Reader Comments

    Fuel for the body and the car
    …Demand for grain is accelerating not to feed humans or livestock but to fill petrol tanks. Compared with 2000, three-times more corn is used to make ethanol in America; distilleries that produce biofuels hoover up a fifth of the country’s corn supplies. Demand for cleaner energy in turn keeps demand for corn growing. Farmers are having trouble keeping pace with the burgeoning biofuel industry. And to produce more corn farmers are switching production from wheat and soya, pushing up the prices of those crops too.
    Rising food prices: The agonies of agflation

    8 August 2007
    In the Hole to China
    “Two senior spokesmen for the Chinese government observed that China’s considerable holdings of US dollars and Treasury bonds ‘contributes a great deal to maintaining the position of the dollar as a reserve currency’.”
    Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal editorial page and Contributing Editor of National Review.

    dee

    Thursday 29 Aug 2007 To day NYT Podcast | Menu

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    Like the report of Mark Twain's death, reports of the death of radio –at least FM – are greatly exaggerated.


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    QUOTES of the EVENING from recent
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    • It’s not a Bush problem, it’s an American problem. He is playing double or nothing. He is trying to shift the responsibility from the Coalition to the Iraqis
    • New York City has more police officers than Iraq has troops

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    Tuesday 28 August 2007 Canadian dollar. video

    Tuesday 28 August 2007 Conrad Black asks for new trial

    Wednesday 29 August 2007 Company seeks approval to build Alberta's first nuclear reactor

    Daily Wall Street likes what it hears from Bernanke and Bush
    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks climbed Friday as investors bypassed a slew of economic data to focus on separate speeches by President Bush and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, with the latter not saying anything to dissuade investors from believing that cuts in interest rates are ahead.

    click for economist   George Bush announces a raft of measures to assist American borrowers
    Help with the mortgage
    Aug 31st 2007

    Tuesday 28 August 2007 Neurochem (NRM) fell the most in more than two years after the drugmaker said its experimental Alzheimer’s disease treatment didn’t demonstrate statistically significant benefits in an 18-month trial.

    OTTAWA: ECONOMY ADDS JOBS

    Tuesday 28 August 2007 Embarrassment of budget riches
    Ottawa's Streak Of Fat Surpluses Is Drawing Flak From Economists And Taxpayers

    Saturday 25 August 2007 OTTAWA: GOVT. AWASH IN CASH
    Canada's finance department says the government continues to record a budget surplus and that the yearly figure will be much higher than predicted in Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's budget presented last March. His prediction for the fiscal year was $3 billion. But the department says the figure had already reached $6.4 billion by the end of the first quarter at the end of June. The surplus has occurred despite a 7.6 increase in spending. While in the opposition, the governing Conservative Party often accused its Liberal Party predecessor of deliberately underestimating its budget surpluses as a way of presenting its fiscal stewardship in a favourable light. The finance department has also revised upwards Mr. Flaherty's estimate of economic growth from 3.9 per cent to 5.2 per cent.

    Saturday 01 September 2007 OTTAWA: ECONOMY GROWS BEYOND EXPECTATIONS
    Statistics Canada says the economy grew by .8 per cent in June, after growing .3 per cent in May. The latest calculations yield an annualized growth figure of 3.4 per cent, far higher than the 2.8 yearly number which analysts had foreseen. StatsCan says the latest surge has been fuelled by an increase in natural gas extraction and a rebound of oil and gas exploration. The burst of economic activity could complicate the decision to be announced by the Bank of Canada on whether it will increase its trend-setting interest rate.

    Sunday 26 August 2007 New Democrats take aim in Quebec, tackle Arctic and Afghanistan at policy retreat
    OTTAWA -- Arctic sovereignty and a push to withdraw Canada's troops from their combat mission in Afghanistan are among the issues at the top of the agenda for the New Democrats as they kick off a caucus retreat in Montreal on the eve of three federal by-elections, says NDP leader Jack Layton.
    Today's Videos
     

    VIDEO: Investors go bargain hunting
     

    VIDEO: Weak US data rattles Euro markets
     

    VIDEO: Russia's luxury lingerie
     
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    Altria to spin off international unit

    CHICAGO (Reuters) - Altria Group Inc is splitting the Marlboro cigarette business apart, saying Wednesday that it will spin off its Philip Morris International unit in move seen as unlocking the value of that faster growing business.

    Full Article

    Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
    Positive Profit Picture Hides Underlying Stresses - September 5, 2007
    Although economists examine a complex array of statistics when assessing the health of an economy, nothing says more than the underlying profitability of its companies. Good profits are generally associated with secure jobs, higher investment spending and good tax revenues.
    Overall, Canada’s profit picture looks very positive. The latest data (2007Q2), show an aggregate profit margin of 8.3%. This is down very slightly from 8.5% in the first quarter, but the important point is that total profitability has been above 8% for the last nine quarters in a row. Past issues | his WN page

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