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Welcome to Wednesday Night #1333 Sept 19, 2007
PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU CAN BE WITH US - IT MAKES THE CHAIRMAN'S JOB EASIER
the account of the Wednesday Night #1332 . It is a good read!
Wednesday Night #1333 - Montreal Protocol & ICAO
19 September 2007
While Montreal lives up to its aspirations as an international city this week with two major conferences underway, we are as always dismayed by how little the average - or even above-average - citizen knows about the UN presence here. If pushed, some outside the aviation fraternity might be able to identify ICAO, although usually with some confusion with IATA, but only a handful are aware that our city is home to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, rightfully praised as a [one of the only] highly successful international environmental accord. (Read and learn) which celebrates its 20th anniversary this week.
Last week, APEC with the help of Stephen Harper, John Howard and George Bush cobbled together a weak statement on climate change. This week, in Montreal, world leaders hope to sign a new deal that would have a greater effect on climate change than the Kyoto Protocol , and we watch with great amusement as the Harper minions, led by new convert John Baird turn greener by the minute.
One of the many benefits of the Montreal Protocol gathering is that Tim Whitehouse of the NAFTA Commission on Environmental Cooperation (CEC) - another of Montreal’s unsung international organizations - is back in town from Washington and will join us at Wednesday Night.
Meanwhile, the triennial ICAO Assembly that opened Tuesday may be expected to be a lively session as debate focuses on how to curb CO2 emissions linked to global warming, whilst the EU is preparing to take unilateral action to force airlines to pollute less. We are delighted that Tom Windmuller will be with us to shed some light on the airline industry proposals (IATA) and can elaborate on the challenge his boss has given to ICAO member states to set a target of 120 million tons of carbon emissions annually through “more efficient infrastructure and better operations.”
On the topic of airlines and energy, suggested readings include Tom Friedman’s latest piece
What an amazing collection of news and tidbits have popped up in the last few days, converting last week’s sliced bread into toast.
A new dimension to conjecture on Vladimir Putin’s political future. The surprise nomination of Viktor Zubkov as the new Prime Minister, followed by Mr. Putin’s declaration that he had no desire to be followed by a weak president - has as many interpretations as there are Putin/Russia watchers and what does this all mean in the context of missile defense cooperation?
Last week we commented on the ‘returned-unopened’ fate of Pakistan’s ex-PM Nawaz Sharif [and nobody rose to the bait because of the on-going ABCP saga]. Wiping that story off front pages is the statement to that country’s Supreme Court that General Musharraf has said he would step down as army chief if elected. So, what’s happening to the negotiations with Benazir Bhutto for power sharing? Now she says “she was surprised President Pervez Musharraf would seek re-election while still army chief and said her . We remain concerned that Pakistan is a potential nuclear tinder box should the government fall into Islamist hands.
Brian Mulroney’s cranky Memoirs? Obliterated for political and economic junkies by Alan Greenspan’s Age of Turbulence. J. Bradford DeLong’s entertaining review is a must read in our humble opinion, especially in light of the Fed’s decision today to cut rates for the first time since mid-2006, from 5.25% to 4.75%. We haven’t seen an opinion from Mr. Greenspan — yet.
The cut in interest rates is of course a reaction to the crisis precipitated by the ABCP and fears of recession in the U.S. which was discussed at length last Wednesday. The Economist gives a relatively positive view on hedge funds but concludes “All this means that watching markets will be rather like being a security guard: oscillating between boredom, when virtually nothing is happening, and fear, when all hell breaks loose. Traditional investors will need a strong nerve and a long-term perspective”, which confirms the opinions expressed by Chil Heward and other WN experts.
You thought we wouldn’t mention the by-elections? We congratulate Thomas Mulcair and Jack Layton on the overwhelming support for an outstanding candidate, pointing out that Mr. Mulcair would have won as a candidate for the Hippopotamus Party. The voters voted for him personally and also, we suspect, were happy to simultaneously send a strong message to Mr. Charest at no cost to the provincial riding.
Our favorite National Post contributor, John Moore, has a must-read analysis as does Andrew Coyne
And, amidst all the doom & gloom, really good news: the New York Times has stopped charging for all the really good stuff (like op-ed) as of tonight, which means that we will no longer have to cut and paste items we want to share with you. This, we are sure Martha Stewart would agree “is a good thing”
All of this [and we have not mentioned Iraq, or the local brouhaha over M. Labonté] should make for a lively Wednesday Night
Editor
LIBS BID BYE-BYE TO BY-ELECTIONS
by Jordan
Himelfarb
September 18, 2007
Of the three
federal by-elections held in Quebec yesterday, the Liberal party won
none. The long-time Grit stronghold riding of Montreal’s Outremont
was the site of an outright drubbing of Liberal leader Stéphane
Dion’s handpicked candidate, former political commentator Jocelyn
Coulon, at the hands of Thomas Mulcair, now the second-ever NDP candidate
to hold a federal seat in Quebec. In the other two by-elections—one
went Tory, the other Bloc Quebecois—the Liberals won less than 10
percent of the popular vote. As one unnamed Liberal MP told the Canadian
Press yesterday, the Grits’ current tally of twelve of
Quebec’s seventy-five seats is the lowest the party has held since
confederation. The Liberals’ dismal showing yesterday and the
party’s diminishing status in Quebec support the assertions,
plastered across today’s Big Seven sources, that the Conservative
party is now the federalist force in Quebec and that Stéphane
Dion is floundering
as party leader, ceding to his rivals ground he cannot afford to lose.
Compounding Dion’s embarrassment are reports today in the Star and the
Globe that, within the party, the by-election failure is being blamed
on a sabotage campaign mounted by loyalist supporters of former Dion
leadership rival and Deputy Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. Dion denies
any such infighting, but the appearance of a divided caucus reflects more
poorly still on his leadership. “From the disappointment of tonight,
we will build a stronger party,” Dion told a subdued crowd at
Coulon’s campaign headquarters last night. But the Big Seven wonder
if the Liberal leader is capable of delivering on his promise: “If
you have a Quebec leader who can’t win in Quebec, why would people
in Ontario and the rest of the country vote for Mr. Dion?” asked
Robert Fife on CTV
News. Perhaps, as the Globe suggests, the Liberal by-election setback
reflects nothing more than low voter turnout and the ascendancy of a star
NDP candidate. However, as Ken Dryden points out in the Globe, as symbols,
the losses are “as big as they are made out to be.”
Unfortunately for Dion, the Big Seven portray yesterday’s Liberal
shutout as nothing less than a condemnation of his leadership.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
THE LEADS:
THE NATIONAL: “By-election
Ballots: The Liberals lose one of their strongholds in Quebec; what does
Stéphane Dion do now?”
CTV NEWS: “Critical
By-elections in Quebec: Why the entire country should take
note”
GLOBE AND MAIL: “Tories
steal seat from Bloc as Liberals lose Outremont”
TORONTO STAR: “Ads
for HPV vaccine yanked” (top non-local)
NATIONAL POST: “US
targets in range: Iran”
LA PRESSE: “The
NDP takes over Outremont”
OTTAWA CITIZEN: “NDP,
Tories score upset in Quebec” (top non-local)
Diana & David Nicholson
dtnicholson@wednesdaynight.net
Tel: +1 (514) 934-0023
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 Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
American Consumer Psychology - September 12, 2007
The world economic outlook appears to be especially uncertain at the moment, as evidenced by increased financial volatility as investors seek new direction. And the key to the outlook is the American consumer, on whom the world economy has persistently relied.
At the heart of the matter is the recession in the U.S. housing sector. Investment in housing has been contracting since early 2006. Housing starts are now 40% below their peak, which puts them at levels not seen since 1996. The supply of unsold new homes is about equal to eight months of sales, which is far above the usual inventory. The same is true for existing homes. Past issues | his WN page
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