Read About W-N NP story on W-N Contact W-N and Map Invite to Wed1334 Wednesday Night Salon #1334 26 Sept Page 2 The Report Wednesday Nighters seem to have become more adventurous. This week, it was Danny van Gelder’s turn to recount his recent trip to the Yukon and Alaska., starting in Whitehorse and going up to the Kluane National Park , the Alaska Highway and down to Dawson. He reports that the scenery is spectacular, he saw some animals including baby moose and unfamiliar bird species, very few people and probably the best highway in Canada (paid for by the Americans). Once you get there, you realize how much more North there actually is The National Research Council (NRC) Prologue A truism often quoted up to about three quarters of a century ago states that self-praise is no recommendation. Certainly, Canadians tend to not brag about the achievements that have brought our country universal recognition but rather, see us as fugitives from those attributes that we appear to have in common with our southern neighbours. Ask your neighbours about the National Research Council and they will probably recall that it has something to do with the national time signal. In reality, it is much more. Margaret Lefebvre has recently been appointed to the Council of the NRC and as a new member, has visited most of the installations around the country. In each case, she has asked to see what projects the researchers are most excited about and has been rewarded by a level of enthusiasm that is completely invigorating. She particularly relishes the environment that is attracting scientists to return from the United States. They come because the structure of the NRC facilitates the creation of “pods” of researchers who all come together and have a more immediate impact on Canadian public policy. She also notes that the NRC is not a “patent-grabbing” organisation. If, however during the process of development and testing, NRC researchers come up with new by-products, NRC would hold patents related to those products. NRC has been the Government of Canada’s prime organization for research and development since 1916, has quietly brought universal recognition and acclaim to Canada and has created an intellectual environment that has attracted some of the world’s most talented scientists. Unlike its US counterpart, Canada’s is at the service of industry. For an idea to reach the market, it must be tested, proven safe, reliable and useful to humans. That is what the NRC can offer, along with development funding, and the NRC label is a standard (like CSA or ISO) that is accepted around the world. Its testing facilities, often unique, are kept current, serving Canadian industry in innovation. An NRC product approval rating is a virtual guarantee of success for any product or process and its inventor. The NRC can claim a major role in the development of 10 of the 50 most important Canadian inventions: - The Canadarm - Cobalt-60 cancer bomb treatment - Computer animation - Canada is a world leader - Crash position indicator - Electric wheelchair - Electronic synthesizer - Explosives detector - Heart pacemaker It has provided research and development support, expertise and/or funding for - The BlackBerry - Ultra violet degradable plastics - The Weevac-6 baby evacuation stretcher - The Anti-Gravity suit, as well as the development of many other medical, agricultural and sustainable development products. The NRC Institute for Nutrisciences and Health is active in identifying how bioactive compounds found in nature can be used to improve human and animal health. The Institute focuses on breakthrough discoveries and technologies in neurobiology, immunobiology and glycobiology, focused on research and development associated with neurodegenerative diseases, infectious diseases, cancer vaccines, immunotherapeutics and of bioproducts, and on moving these discoveries out to the marketplace. Airlines, although relatively efficient in their use of petroleum, have come under fire for problems that are not uniquely of their making. Governments are either unwilling or unable to provide adequate airport and modern air traffic control facilities to meet demand that, despite the higher airfares resulting from rising costs of jet fuel, is increasing at 5% p/y. As airlines succeed in filling planes, making for better profitability and more fuel efficiency, a delay or cancellation can cause chaos, leaving passengers stranded with unacceptable delays in obtaining alternate travel arrangements. Lengthy waits on the ground before takeoff are frequent, causing missed connections, lost luggae and increased stress for passengers [and in burning more fuel, adding emissions to the air]. [The domino effect of cancellations was illustrated by the JetBlue fiasco of last February illustrates the entire problem. Starting with a snowstorm that hit the East Coast, in the end, 1,096 flights were cancelled, and thousands of passengers, flight attendants and pilots were stranded.] Adding new aircraft to airline fleets even if it were feasible (which it is not), would simply exacerbate the situation by placing additional demands on outdated traffic control technology and overcrowded airports. A recent news report describes a Memphis air traffic control radio blackout with two hundred aircraft in the air in the immediate vicinity. Happily they landed or went on their way without incident. The 50-year old air traffic control system in the U.S. is antiquated and is not designed to serve even 2/3 of today’s traffic. It desperately needs to be modernized. It is said to be a simple political fight over power and who pays. The European solution is the seamless marriage of long haul air travel with short haul rail, which would ease both airport congestion and passenger frustration, freeing up capacity for long-haul flights. More and more European airports incorporate train stations in the air terminals. But the necessary infrastructure is very costly. Environmental change and energy security Despite increasing evidence of environmental change, the response has ranged from the ice age having occurred without human intervention to acknowledging that it is a problem but one that can be solved by the adoption of simple conservation measures, to belief that it would be a good idea if China and India were to save the world by acting, to refusing to acknowledge that the current wave of environmental exchange has resulted primarily from Man’s success in achieving a longer, healthier life and energy- based technology. The unbridled intrusion of humans on green space has had a significant environmental effect. It is claimed by some that, with the exception of such European countries as France and Germany, the concepts of conservation and alternative energy sources have not been adequately marketed. The proponents of nuclear energy tell us that we must stop wasting public funding on the development of clean technologies such as wind and solar to replace fossil fuels, which are doomed to only respond to a small part of the world’s requirement. In their view, we need a high-powered programme to push nuclear technology towards fast breeder reactors right now. The problem is the need for attitude change - until the public fear of nuclear power is addressed and turned around, public policy will not take affirmative action on its development. To some degree, the problem has its roots in the ’50s and ’60s when the leading scientists displayed an arrogant dismissal of any need for public relations or debate. While we tend to think that this is a huge problem in Canada, we should look at France where the population accepts without question that some 70% of power is generated by nuclear sources. Blended ethanol and gasoline fuel was originally rejected in Australia where the consumer felt ripped off because he perceived that he was paying for ‘cheap gas’. Some 10 years later, with positive marketing approaches, the blend is now accepted. Wednesday Nighters have concluded for some time, that ineffective political plans and blaming other nations will not do the trick. It is becoming increasingly evident that multiple measures including insulation, investment in and implementation of conservation measures and an effective sales pitch are required, undoubtedly including increasing use of nuclear energy. As for expensive infrastructure, if not visible, it is usually deemed not politically advantageous. That must change. The Economy (see also Jacques Clément’s Report on the Economy) Today the Dow Jones was 160 points away from its July 19 record, thanks to the lowering of the Fed discount rate and Fed Funds rate last week which was a bold move on the part of Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke to stave off recession. Basically the Fed is in a recession watch Fourth Quarter Outlook: Canadian Dollar: $1.02U.S. Euro: $1.43U.S. Crude $85.00 Gold: $750.00 TSX 14,500 Dow-Jones 14,250 (new record) Redefining terms The Bank of Canada and Ministry of Finance are fine-tuning the definition of productivity and there is also a major debate on the inflation target whether it should remain at 1-3%. Consumer spending Anecdotal evidence seems to indicate that more Canadians took long holidays, but stayed home this summer and with the good weather most of the country enjoyed, are not yet thinking of buying fall and winter clothing. This is reflected in the last three months’ negative retail sales. Consumer spending and confidence have been affected by the mortgage crisis and the ABCPs. With the Canadian dollar at par, there is vocal discontent among Canadian consumers over the differential in prices for products ranging from automobiles to telecommunications, books, clothing and food. Douglas Porter, the deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets reveals this week that the average price on a basket of assorted goods is now roughly 24% higher in Canadian dollar prices than U.S. dollar prices on identical goods at the current exchange rate. While some differential may be explained by the costs of designing to specs and the discrepancy in size of the respective markets, there is resentment (if not rage) over the admission that many manufacturers are suggesting that Canadian prices often are simply “what the market will bear”. Canadians were treated this week to the spectacle of the Minister of Finance suggesting that they should go across the border to shop. This would not seem to be designed to encourage consumer spending in Canada. Emerging markets Wednesday Night’s emerging markets expert says that the paradigm between emerging markets and developed markets has completely changed. It used to be in the 90s if the industrial world had a correction of say 3%, there would be about 9% correction in the emerging markets. In August the opposite happened. Emerging markets are recognized as the engines of the world economy and multiples are lower than in North America and Europe. In the coming months it is likely that we will see more money flowing into emerging markets. 26 Sept 2007 To day NYT Podcast | Menu Radio Like the report of Mark Twain's death, reports of the death of radio –at least FM – are greatly exaggerated. September 28, 2007 U.S. At 13,913, the Dow Jones is 128 points away from the July 19 record, having gained over 500 points since the September 18 bold move by the Fed in cutting by ½ %, its federal funds rate (4 ¾ %) and discount rate (5¼%). It was the first cut in four years and the largest in nearly five, in order “to restore confidence to the U.S. economy, to stop the turmoil, turbulence and disruptions in the housing and financial markets from bringing down the overall economy.” The Fed “still has lingering worries about inflation, acknowledged the risks of recession, the tightening credit conditions and credit squeeze.” They are in recession watch despite a strong second quarter economic growth of 3.8% (+0.6% in the first quarter). The third quarter G.D.P. will likely be closer to 2% given the housing industry is in recession. Existing home sales have declined for the fifth consecutive month (-4.5% in July-August), new home sales were off 8.3% in August, housing prices have declined 6.5% from their peak (the most severe since the Depression) and are expected to fall by another 13% by next August. Housing starts were down 2.6% in August (20% in the last twelve months). Unsold homes at 4.6 million, are at a twenty year high and equivalent to ten months’ supply. Listed houses for sale are at an all time high. Building permits have fallen to a twelve year low. Home and mortgage foreclosures are up 115% (year/year). Durable goods have fallen 5% in August. Last month saw the first job loss in four years and only 88,000 new jobs were created in the last two months. Business confidence is the lowest in four years. Consumer confidence is tumbling with retail sales sagging in the last three months. Exports are rising given the record low U.S. dollar versus the Euro ($1.42 U.S.) and other currencies. The Fed is likely to ease by ¼% at both the October and December meetings to 4¼% Fed funds. Equity buybacks in the second quarter were at a record $770 billion, financed by $625 billion of corporate borrowings and the balance by liquidity, but have dried up in the third quarter so far, the lowest in four years. Canada At 14,130, the T.S.X. is nearly five hundred points away from its July 19 record, fuelled by record prices for crude ($83.32) and gold ($740.00), a twenty-eight year high and other commodities, a very strong economy that has propelled the Canadian dollar above parity ( a thirty-one year high) as the second quarter balance of payments improved by $2.3 billion to $8.4 billion. G.D.P. has averaged 3½% in the first half with strength in consumer spending, business capital investments, corporate profits, oil and gas extraction activities, a very strong housing sector, increased capacity utilization and strong employment in the last three months, creating an average of 23,000 new jobs monthly and unemployment remaining at 6%, a thirty-three year low. The manufacturing sector was very strong in July with rising shipments (+2.3%), new orders (+3.2%) and unfilled orders up 6.7% in the last three months. Housing starts climbed over 5% in August but existing home sales declined 5.3%. Building permits (July) were off close to 11.5%. Productivity growth (second quarter) receded. Retail sales plunged 1.7% in the June-July period. Imports climbed 3.5% in July and exports only 1.5%, reducing the trade surplus to $3.7 billion from an average of $5.5 billion monthly in the previous six months. Housing prices (August) averaged $326,000 (+11.2% year/year) versus U.S. at $225,000 (+0.2% year/year). David Dodge is worried about the rise in housing prices (particularly in Eastern Canada), the increasingly loose lending rules and the easy terms mortgages. He does not foresee much inflation relief from the strong dollar and feels that the domestic credit crunch could slow growth in Canada with core C.P.I. at 2.3% and G.D.P. deflator at 5.7%, Bank of Canada is likely to remain steady at 4 ½ % overnight rate and 4 ¾ % discount rate at their meetings October 16 and December 4. The $14.2 billion final fiscal surplus for 2006/2007 after the initial estimate of $3 billion and March revision of $9.2 billion will be used to reduce the $467 billion outstanding debt, the lowest in twenty-five years. The interest savings of $750 million will be used for tax cuts. Record personal and corporate taxes contributed to the tenth consecutive fiscal surplus fuelled by strong economic growth. Real estate Bulletin Board www.flickr.com More of davidnicholson's photos tagged with Wed1334 Wed 1334 slide show Canadian dollar is expected to decline against its U.S. counterpart. The economy See also JACQUES CLEMENT: Pages ON THE ECONOMY www.Wednesday-Night.com/Wed1334page2.asp 26 Sep 2007 at Wednesday-Night1334 Jacques Clement mkts the 26 Sept 2007 10:48 page Previous Videos Notes by Herb Bercovitz OWN Editor: Diana Thébaud Nicholson OWN Radio, the long-lasting treasure intro Wed1334 | Wed1334 slide show Oil DTN OWN more Louise | DTN Diana Nicholson OWN slides | hands | all | & Louise 3-M slides | albums | all Jacques Clément OWN slides Gerald Ratzer OWN Note Wednesday-Night creates charts and follows stocks, including timely related financial news items, in which Wednesday Nighters are interested and in order to demonstrate a service that could eventually be developed and marketed. Wednesday Nighters are invited to participate and help to test the service. see Wednesday-Night.com Flip charts QUOTES of the EVENING from recent Wednesday Nights 2007 From #1334 invite It’s not a Bush problem, it’s an American problem. He is playing double or nothing. He is trying to shift the responsibility from the Coalition to the Iraqis New York City has more police officers than Iraq has troops More Quotes Short | Full List www.flickr.com This is a Flickr badge showing public photos from davidnicholson tagged with diananicholson. Make your own badge here. Diana Nicholson Past Quotes Best or All Mouse bio see Diana show hands | RJG | Album Herb Bercovitz OWN Galbraith imges his page See slides | Album and Art slides | Album W-N Links for #1334 a NewYorker Cartoon every 30 sec. see w-n Right Menu => Harper's Home 2007 Notes for #1334 Rex Murphy's Point of View index Today's Videos   VIDEO: Investors go bargain hunting   VIDEO: Weak US data rattles Euro markets   VIDEO: Russia's luxury lingerie   More Details Altria to spin off international unit August 29, 2007 03:56 PM ET CHICAGO (Reuters) - Altria Group Inc is splitting the Marlboro cigarette business apart, saying Wednesday that it will spin off its Philip Morris International unit in move seen as unlocking the value of that faster growing business. Full Article Past Stephen S. Poloz issues | Archives Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary Is Canada decoupling from the U.S.? - June 6, 2007 Recent figures show that the U.S. economy did a face-plant in 2007 Q1, while Canada was humming. This has cemented the perception that Canada is decoupling from the U.S. The matter clearly deserves a closer look. True, the U.S. economy has been experiencing a slowdown, led by a collapse in its housing sector, and posted GDP growth of only 0.6% (at an annualized rate) in 2007Q1. Meanwhile, Canada posted a first-quarter growth rate of 3.7%. Not only is this a very large gap in performance, Canada's growth accelerated from 1.5% in 2006Q4, while the U.S. economy decelerated from 2.5%. This is not just outperformance, but divergence. Past issues | his WN page Commentary podcast. 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Read Cookie for Site Wed1334 26 Sept 2007 with with Thomas Windmuller photos flickr and Dame Margaret Lefebvre OWN, | Catherine Gillbert and then Douglas Lightfoot Canada becoming more energy efficient Danny van Gelde on camera Diana and Roslyn Takeishi see click for Wed1334 Report | flickr NYT Podcast weekend biz | Fri 28th | 27th | Wednessday 26 sept | 25th | 24th Mon | Sat 22th | Fri 21st | Menu at Wednesday-Night1334 Jacques Clement mkts the 26 Sept 2007 10:48see movie page dee Please click here to see new/updated pages since last visit www.iedm.org/ coming Events Wed1333 report Wed1334 invite Wed13351334 invite The views above are neither those of the authors nor the owner of the website, but merely reflect discussions that took place on this evening