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Welcome to Wednesday Night #1338 Qct 10, 2007
PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU CAN BE WITH US - IT MAKES THE CHAIRMAN'S JOB EASIER
the account of the Wednesday Night #1328 . It is a good read!
ately, we have spent a lot of time agonizing over the political scene in this country. So much so, that it appears to us we have been neglecting many international news items and issues, so this week we propose to look at some of (it is hardly likely we’ll get to all) the topics below.
While we wrestle with the possibility of an election in Canada, there appears to be a never-ending stream of election outcomes, not to mention political manoeuvering in other countries. How many people paid attention to the results from Poland (we admit that when we were paying attention, we always found the twins a bit creepy), or to the singularly mean-spirited Swiss People’s Party campaign in Switzerland that resulted in important gains for the SVP which, besides its opposition to immigrants, wants to keep Switzerland out of the European Union?
In Russia, things have suddenly become more complicated with the news that Mikhail Gorbachev has been elected head of a new political movement founded, he said, to help bring democratic principles to Russia , a challenging undertaking given Mr. Putin’s recent moves to assure his succession will toe his line. Oh well, if Mr. Gorbachev’s new party goes nowhere, perhaps he can take solace in his designation as a Hero of the Environment (in itself, this designation has a faintly Soviet ring to it) by TIME
Meanwhile, almost as nobody was looking, there’s a newly announced leadership lineup in China that “modestly enhances the authority of President Hu Jintao”.
Next week, Argentina will vote to replace current President Nestor Kirchner, probably with his wife who, described as the ‘Argentine Hillary‘, sounds a great deal more qualified that the former first ladies of Argentina whose attempts to succeed their president husbands have been pretty disastrous. Is there a feminine of caudillo?
Kenya will have elections in December; the Parliament is dissolved amid forecasts of a close race. Although the rate of growth last year was back to the 1981 level (this is good news), inflation, corruption, lack of jobs and high crime rate plague the country.
Meanwhile in Pakistan, the return of Benazir Bhutto to lead her party in contesting the January elections has already precipitated violence and, sadly, there’s surely more to come.
And then there’s the flare-up between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurd separatists (PPK) that could turn very, very ugly, despite international efforts to get things back on track
Good news from Africa for once. The first winner of the Mo Ibrahim award for leadership in Africa was announced. It is Joaquim Chissano, former President of Mozambique and currently UN special envoy to peace talks between the Ugandan government and Lord’s Resistance Army rebels. While there is much debate about the effectiveness (not to mention morality - it does appear to be a sophisticated form of bribery) of the prize in encouraging honesty among African leaders, if it can encourage even 2 or 3 leaders to do the right thing, it can’t be totally bad
.
Reverting to some of last week’s topics, we would point to Jacques Clément’s predictions that the US dollar would slide against the euro to $1.43 (it did it on Friday) and that oil would be at $90/bbl (see Comments) It remains to be seen whether the Loonie will reach $1.05 - it dropped back to $1.02 today, but we have a way to go until year-end.
No mention of emerging markets last week, but a subsequent piece in MarketWatch suggesting that we could see an emerging markets bubble brought this response from WN’s favorite EM expert “More money will flow into EM, in search of better performance, [and] that could lead eventually to a bubble, but we are not at that stage yet. Still time to invest in EM and enjoy the run; too early to take profits.”
We are also intrigued by mention on the news tonight that the Caisse plans to invest in Indian real estate for the first time and may spend up to C$1.6 billion ($1.7 billion) there in the next five years .
Bruce Kippen’s predictions regarding the Alberta royalties dispute also seems to be accurate - we’ll find out on Wednesday Night (”Albertans will find out Wednesday night how the province will act on a government report that recommended hiking the royalty rates charged to energy companies”) and this could mean a provincial election. So, we are back to the topic where we started - elections.
And on that note, we encourage you to join us in investing in yet another diversified, possibly highly volatile Wednesday Night
Editor
We look forward to your company.
Diana & David Nicholson
dtnicholson@wednesdaynight.net
Tel: +1 (514) 934-0023
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