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Wednesday Night Salon
#1347 26 Dec Page 2
Introduction
The Report
The last Wednesday of 2007 was marked by a more than usually eclectic group and a number of new faces including writer and film maker Clayton Bailey; Alana Klein, Doctoral candidate at Columbia Law School who is teaching at McGill; Tom Hesler, a Law School classmate of Chantal Beaubien, Philip Osano, a former Sauvé Scholar from Kenya now a Ph.D. candidate at McGill; and Rahma Adam from Tanzania who is now at the Kennedy School of Government. A welcome returnee after a long absence was The King of String and Father of Cleo, Tom Paskal
Climate Change
Unfortunately, much of the debate on climate change is absolutist, rather than recognizing that there are a number of actions that can be taken simultaneously [and different actions according to local and regional conditions]. The momentum of climate change is likely irreversible, therefore emphasis today must be on slowing down the rate of change [mitigation by lowering the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere], along with the adaptation projects to enable poorer countries to cope with the effects of climate change [This is the basis of the Bali Action Plan].
At this stage, it is difficult to see what difference will be made in the medium term by cutting emissions, given the melting of the permafrost, release of methane and inability of oceans to absorb the carbon released and other phenomena. Thus the negotiation on carbon emissions has become an economic mechanism, rather than one that is science-based. Developing nations must act in their economic self-interest and some nations are playing the game far better than others. India and China will not be cutting emissions in the near future. China is presenting itself as the voice of the developing world on this issue, with an eye towards acquiring intellectual property rights for technologies that they want to have for free. What the West fails to understand is that for a country like India, the proposals set out at the Bali meeting were viewed as a strait jacket for their economy imposed by the industrialised nations.
Kenneth Rogoff in the current issue of Foreign Policy suggests that the first thing the next American president should do upon taking office is to insist that the U.S. Congress pass a huge increase in gas taxes; implementing steep carbon taxes that hit coal, heating oil, and natural gas. A number of European countries have introduced carbon taxes with varying degrees of success, but there is no cohesion in tax policy and few empirical studies are available. For more on this see: A Review of Carbon and Energy Taxes in EU
The U.S. will likely follow suit - already states and cities are far out in front of the federal government on issues of sustainability, proving that this is a popular issue and one which the next administration will have to address, but the question remains - is it too little too late?
Meanwhile, a recent visitor to Japan, remarked on the great number of hybrid vehicles and wonders what the effect would be if the U.S. government were to push for similar policies. Japan has no domestic oil supply - and therefore no domestic oil lobby; likewise, a number of developing nations with little or no domestic oil resources are also encouraging hybrid, or low-mileage vehicles and adoption of new technologies that are very close to implementation. As developing nations take these steps and costs of manufacturing are lowered, the U.S. will have to follow, but it must be remembered that the entrenched corporate powers are extremely strong and the shift of the U.S. economy will be massive.
While carbon emissions remain the focus of the international community, from the standpoint of national security, the issue must be the location of infrastructure on coastal lands that will be the first victims of rising ocean levels.
Alana Klein, Doctoral candidate at Columbia Law School who is teaching at McGill; Tom Hesler, a Law School classmate of Chantal Beaubien, Philip Osano, a former Sauvé Scholar from Kenya now a Ph.D. candidate at McGill; and Rahma Adam from Tanzania who is now at the Kennedy School of Government. A welcome returnee after a long absence was The King of String and Father of Cleo, Tom Paskal
Inevitably, a highly articulate voice was raised to assail the ‘ecotheocrats’, criticising the evolution of the fight against pollution into the more undefined global warming, subsequently morphed into climate change, and suggesting that there has not been an effective environmental movement since Nader’s Raiders. International business will thrive under carbon emissions trading, without reforming its practices that include the devastation of agricultural lands in developing nations and the use of African nations as laboratories for testing of pharmaceuticals. This same voice reminds us that the root of the problem is overpopulation which places ever-increasing demands on natural resources and nature’s bounty.
Nepal
Catherine the Intrepid (Gillbert) recently returned from trekking in Nepal where she noticed considerable changes since her previous visit three years ago. Among her observations: the extensive road building activities which will bring development and many changes to the villages. The political situation is confused; the monarchy appears to be on its way out, with many of those to whom she spoke talking about future uses of the Royal Palace, but on the other hand, the police and the army are still totally loyal to the King (who pays them). There appear to be a number of separatist (predominantly Buddhist) groups, seeking regional autonomy. The social system is equally confused in that both a strong caste and clan system exist. The Maoists are seeking a system similar to the Indian, with entrenched rights for the different castes.
All political parties, including the Maoist Party, are led by Hindus, a fact that makes the Buddhists - many of whom are of Tibetan origin - feel increasingly marginalized. The dominant position of the Hindus reflects the gradual takeover of the country by India; historically Nepalese were Buddhist or animist.
The Crime of Aggression (starting a war)
For over 100 years, legal experts have been struggling to define the Crime of Aggression and have it admitted to international criminal jurisdiction. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has been given authority to prosecute four crimes: genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression (which is not defined because it was too controversial for States to agree). A Special Working Group on the Crime of Aggression was established in 2002 by the Assembly of States Parties to continue discussions on the definition, elements and jurisdictional conditions of the Crime of Aggression. It is expected that in 2010 there will be an accepted definition of what is a legal and what is an illegal war, and States (Heads of State - policy makers) will be held to account, rather than individuals. But problems will not end there. Coalitions of nations are attempting to insert clauses or conditions favourable to their situation or perspective (ex. Inclusion of occupation of territories as viewed by Arab nations with reference to Israel; they want each day to be determined a new crime of aggression - a sort of unlimited compound-interest approach). Definitions are subject to lists of contexts. Prosecution will have to be initiated within the State accused of the crime and then pursued in cooperation with the ICC, which has the investigative powers. We need only to examine the situation in Sudan to understand how easily investigations can be avoided, waylaid, postponed or sidetracked by forces within a government.
One question that arises is how to reconcile the current policies of deterrence with the definition of aggression. One way to address the issue is through application of the theory of Constructivism to international relations and state security
It should be recognized that these developments will not aid in the prosecution of such groups as Al Qaeda who use war as a method of mobilizing a population.
Generating heated debate, one Wednesday Nighter questions the usefulness of the ICC (and the UN in general), maintaining that both are held in thrall by a large group of rogue states that will do everything to thwart justice, ensuring that the heads of state who have presided over the murder of thousands of their citizens will never be brought to trial. While this may be true at the level of the General Assembly and the Security Council at times, the ICC appears relatively free from such influences, although lacking the powers that would permit a universal application of the rule of Law.
Sustainable Fisheries Management
Fisheries are in decline throughout the world, largely through mismanagement by politicians who establish quotas that are too high. While Canada is regarded as a worst-case scenario, there are pitifully few examples of good management; the Maine lobster fishery, a decentralized system with much input from the fishermen is generally regarded as sustainable and successful. The problem is that politicians generally think in terms of their elected life and are incapable of taking the long view; therefore there is a need to take fisheries management out of the political realm and confide it to an independent authority. One appealing model is that of Central Banking Systems, created to pursue long-term goals.
[Editor’s note: Despite Canada’s appalling performance in fisheries management, the country houses a remarkable and influential Fisheries Centre at UBC; the maps produced by Dr. Daniel Pauly’s Sea Around Us project give an unequivocal picture of the state of fisheries worldwide.]
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