|
Read About W-N
NP story on W-N
Contact W-N and Map
Invite to Wed1351
Wednesday Night Salon
#1351 23 Jan 2008 Page 2
Introduction
The Report
In his opening remarks, the Ambassador made the point that he has traveled over 225,000 miles across Canada and feels that he has gained an appreciation for the country in its diversity of big cities, little cities and rural areas, and its various regional issues. He mentioned the issues that have been resolved since his arrival a little over two years ago and raised one current point of contention: the new restrictions on cross-border travel.
Slights, insults and ignorance, especially when magnified by citizens, politicians or the media in an attempt to augment their own popularity, circulation or audience, have the capacity to lead to mistrust, anger, racism or in the extreme, in war and/or genocide. Quebeckers appear hypersensitive to statements by otherwise unworthy citizens of their own or other provinces, as are Canadians of statements that are viewed as thoughtless or prejudiced by politicians or citizens in the United States.
Despite the short-lived anger or perceived insults on the part of individuals, or officials, on either side of the border, Canada and the United States exist peacefully side-by-side, despite differences in the way the democratic process is exercised. One of the dilemmas faced by both our countries is how to convey the positive contributions that each makes to the other. Although our diplomats and our governments attempt to do so, neither is completely successful in spreading the word to the greater public. This remains a challenge as some of our elected officials on both sides of the border continue to spout myths (e.g. the 9/11 terrorists who came across the border from Canada).
Because it is the duty of Parliament and Congress to protect their own national interest, there will inevitably be conflicts, but to date, with compromise on both sides, most have been resolved amicably. Currently, one outstanding issue is whether the Northwest Passage constitutes a navigation, security, or a sovereignty issue, not only between Canada and the United States, but between Canada and all countries that would use the Arctic Ocean as a waterway as it becomes navigable year round. Whatever the outcome with other nations, it is predicted that Canada and the United States will resolve the differences between them in an amicable manner. [Unfortunately, there was no time for discussion of UNCLOS or the legitimacy of Canada’s sovereignty claims]
Do we need to buy six submarines?
That’s a decision for the sovereign government of Canada, but we have always come to one another’s aid, whether during ice storms in Quebec and Ontario, Katrina or 9/11
The Cross-border –ID
The other current irritant to neighbours who have historically crossed the border virtually unhindered, is the implementation of more stringent rules for border-crossing identification documentation. The news that the Department of Homeland Security is pushing to tighten identification requirements at U.S. land borders by doing away with verbal declarations starting Jan. 31, elicits two concerns; the first is the impact that this action will have on trans-border commerce. The second is that the Secretary of any Department can unilaterally over rule congressional legislation that bars DHS from implementing a post-Sept. 11 regulation that requires all travelers entering the United States to present a passport or similar secure form of identification and proof of citizenship. That rule, passed in 2004 and set to take effect this month, was delayed until June 2009.
[It should be noted that air travelers have been dutifully carrying passports for some time; however they represent only 10% of all trans-border traffic]
The change is expected to worsen travel delays and backups along the U.S.- Canada border, which recorded 72 million crossings in 2007. The U.S.- Mexico border is even busier, with 226 million crossings, but noncitizens already need extra documentation to enter the United States there. With increasing trade between us, it is essential that all travellers, especially truckers, not be delayed because of these regulations. However, when one considers that in the last five years, thirty-one thousand people were caught by U.S. immigration officers at the Canadian border using false documentation and/or claiming to be returning U.S. citizens, the necessity for upgrading becomes more evident and will be successful as long as immigration staff is augmented to deal with any significant resulting systemic delays.
Afghanistan
In the light of continuing Taliban attacks and increasing Canadian casualties,Afghanistan and the probability of ultimately winning there, remain important topics at Wednesday Night. The publication of the Manley report this week will trigger debate in Parliament, but it is generally acknowledged to be a lucid assessment of the situation. Afghanistan is a tribally divided, impoverished, physically inimical country - “a sparse land” - , where the enemy can easily hit and disappear, crossing the porous Pakistani border to hide with impunity. Those who have witnessed the Canadian presence at first hand emphasize that Canadians should be very, very proud. The morale of the Canadian troops is high, progress is being made, with 6 million kids now going to school and receiving medical care (immunization); the Afghan army is becoming increasingly proficient, but the Afghani police still have a long way to go. It is absolutely essential the before we (the Allies) leave, there be a stable government in which the citizens have confidence. If we leave now, the progress that we have made will be lost, very possibly with a return to the Taliban, and the government of Canada is correctly requesting a greater NATO presence and participation. The 3,200 contingent of U.S. Marines is going to help greatly.
NATO was originally designed to protect Europe, but if it fails to shore up its troops in Afghanistan as requested by Canada and the U.S., its own future role could be open to question as well as the ultimate fate of Afghanistan, with a ripple effect throughout the Middle East.
Burning question: U.S. Primaries: race or gender?
In the U.S. primaries, the question of political philosophy at times appears to take second place to that of race or religion and whether Black women will favour Obama or Clinton. Some observers have conjectured that in South Carolina, Black men will favour Obama and that Black women will support Clinton. [The results suggest that this was a red herring]
Organization and money may lead Hillary Clinton to the Democratic candidacy. As for the Republican nomination, with the timing of Fred Thompson’s withdrawal, Huckabee may fade, Giuliani’s concentration on Florida may prove to be a mistake and thus it’s down to McCain or Romney.
Whatever the colour of one’s political preference, it is undeniable that this race is by far the most interesting that we have witnessed for many years. It is also pertinent that while both our countries claim to have successfully integrated immigrants of a myriad of ethnic origins (the “melting pot” versus the “mosaic”), Canada has yet to equal the U.S. in terms of political success stories of members of minority groups- we need only look at the membership of the Cabinet to see how far we still have to go.
In view of an early departure for Quebec City in the morning, the Ambassador and Mrs Wilkins left Wednesday Night, after a gracious word of thanks for his openness to dialogue from Beryl Wajsman.
The remainder of the evening was ably chaired by Canon David Oliver OWN.
The economy
In the United States there is no doubt that the losses (from the subprime fallout) must be absorbed. In Canada, we don’t even know how much the losses are and this is hanging over our heads. Despite a constant stream of promises from the Pan Canadian Committee of Third Party ABCP Investors, we still don’t know who owes what/how much to whom.
The best con is based on the greed of the mark. There is little doubt that the greed that led people to buy homes that they couldn’t afford and banks to grant injudicious loans that they could sell off without affecting their balance sheet, added to the predictable end to the traditional forty-year business cycle, have been the source of the current bank crisis and stock market downturn.
It is obvious that in the United States, the losses from the sub-prime crisis must be absorbed. Sadly, although this is not a racial problem, it is Blacks, Hispanics and other low-income families who have been sucked into the greed of lenders, ultimately leading to homelessness. [We commend the “60 Minutes” report on the severity of this problem and how it affects more and more communities]
Over the years, the nature of banking has changed. Originally, banks invested a portion of deposits in order to earn a profit. Perhaps due to easing government requirements, greed, and/or a general decline in business ethics, it is the bottom line that now is the determinant of business practice. In the process, the lessons of the Great Depression seem to have been forgotten. In the 70s and 80s, regulation of the banking industry was dismantled and banking has since been invaded by investment bankers. In the process, we have created an enormous credit (derivative) bubble - household debt of 140% in the U.S. The current situation will take a long time unravelling. The U.K. has record consumer debt, and a crisis similar to the current one in the U.S. is a distinct possibility.
Although the Federal Reserve decision to lower interest rates appears on the surface to be counterproductive as it was easy loans that were considered to have been a prime source of the problem, it is expected that lower interest rates will ease the problem in the short term, but would probably be counterproductive if allowed to persist over a longer period. The stimulus packaged proposed by President Bush includes rebates for each household, which it is hoped will stimulate consumer buying. This does not, however, respond to the overwhelming credit card debt that is part of the current economic crisis.
It is anticipated that the weakness in the Market will last most of this year. Fortunately, a lot of new wealth has been created around the world and it is hoped that the emerging world will act as a counterbalance to the problems in the West. The price of oil may be considered to be an ongoing inverse indicator of progress in the recovery.
The unusual conclusion of this Wednesday Night, in a nod to the tradition of certain legislatures in the United States, was a prayer offered by the Special Chair, Canon David Oliver:
Each of us in our own way has a sense of those things that are ultimate and important, and in times of crisis we turn to those things that are ultimate, whether our silence, our sense of our deepest self, or that which we call God. We ask that wisdom may prevail among leaders, financial and political, that we may have a good year wherein justice may flow.
Canwest News ServicePublished: 9 hours agoMore than 30 members of the U.S. House of Representatives have condemned plans by the Department of Homeland Security to institute new identity requirements next week for Canadians and Americans entering the country by land or sea. In a letter yesterday to Michael Chertoff, secretary for homeland security, a bipartisan group of politicians from northern U.S. states calls the plans "simply irresponsible." "These ill-conceived and unnecessarily cumbersome travel requirements will have a deleterious effect on our nation's weakening economy and will adversely affect the economies of the border communities," the letter says.
Thursday 24 January 2008 Trend & Cycle - What Does Yesterday’s Reversal Mean?
Potentially, a lot. At the intraday lows over the past two days, the S&P undercut its 4-year average at 1291 by about 1%. The 4-year average is a very important reference point in our projection of likely price paths for equities for the remainder of the year. In short, if the lows of the last 48 hours hold, we believe the stage is set for a recovery window stretching all the way into early 2009. Short-term momentum indicators are turning up on yesterday’s close for the S&P, TSX and NASD. Further, a strong follow-through for the remainder of the week would set the stage for our proprietary Quadrant Balance data to signal a “mechanical” buy signal. If this data follows through and signals an “all clear”, the stage would be set for a stock market recovery over at least the next three to four months. Based on the evidence at hand we believe the likelihood of this outcome is strong.
Longer-term implications: In our annual preview piece, 2008: The Year In Prospect (January 7, 2008), we propose that if markets signal a new intermediate upturn from the index levels that were reached yesterday, we are likely to get a much longer recovery period than just 3 or 4 months. We estimate that this longer recovery period could last 4 to 5 quarters, and parallel the experience after the 1987 crash: in this cycle, the S&P clawed back all of its losses and worked its way up to a “normal” 4-year cycle high in the first half of 1989. In the current cycle, a parallel experience would keep the recovery window open into early 2009. The next cyclical bear market would be due in the mid-2009 to late 2010 time frame, and correspond to the fourth year of the current cycle.
Andrew de Courcy-Ireland Canaccord Capital
Thursday 17 January 2008 17:10 Dow Plunges More Than 300 Points on Grim Outlook
By MICHAEL M. GRYNBAUM
Stock markets plunged for a third consecutive day as investors confronted new chapters of a well-worn story: the economy is in trouble. on Thursday as investors confronted a troubling manufacturing report and new indications of the depth of subprime losses and housing woes
Rex Murphy's
Point of View index
Altria to spin off international unit
August 29, 2007 03:56 PM ET
 |
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Altria Group Inc is splitting the Marlboro
cigarette business apart, saying Wednesday that it will spin
off its Philip Morris International unit in move seen as unlocking
the value of that faster growing business.
Full
Article |
 Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
How low can oil prices go? - January 23, 2008
Oil prices have broken below the psychologically-important $90 level, leading speculators who have bet heavily on $100-plus oil to consider bailing out of the market. For real consumers, in contrast, this is good news – and the question is, how much better can it get?
There is a wide dispersion of views on the future. Just a year ago many thought oil prices were headed below $50, while today some believe they are headed above $100. A non-economist might wonder what changed during the past 12 months to account for such shifts. Certainly, the arguments that are made to support forecasts are not new – rapid growth in Asia, political risk in the Middle East, a perception that conventional sources of oil are drying up, and the like. Past issues | his WN page
Commentary podcast. 
Wednesday-Night.com on Privacy
Canadian dollar vs euro | Dow 30 w-n chart | TSX
Fed Parties Stéphan Dion | Stevie Harper
see also Wednesday-Night.com MedicalNotes
|
|
;)
;)
BBC
; "DTN Chair by Robert J. Galbraith")
; "click for Diana Nicholson OWN")
 "Louise des Trois Maisons")
 "click for Diana T. Nicholson")
; "click for Herb Bercovitz OWN")
Wed1350 report
Wed1352