This thirteen hundred and sixty-first consecutive Wednesday Night Salon was of particular significance as it demonstrated not only the longevity of the unique institution, but the ubiquitous nature of human beings of diverse languages, religions, political philosophies and/or countries of origin. Tonight saw the inaugural session of the Vancouver, B.C. branch of Wednesday Night (aka the West Wing of Wednesday Night) with an attendance of a dozen invited members and a brief telephone exchange between the two groups. Across the Atlantic, in Athens, it was the opening day of the third conference of the New School of Athens - the brainchild of Kimon Valaskakis OWN. At least six Wednesday Nighters are participating.
Peter Perkins’ introduction of his father-in-law, Charles Cogan brought several new dimensions to questions frequently discussed at Wednesday Night. Following a 37-year career with the CIA, Dr. Cogan became an associate at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (BCSIA) at the Kennedy School, Harvard, where he concentrates on European issues and in particular on French-American relations.
Dr. Cogan’s most recent book is “La République de Dieu”, a collection of essays, on the idea of God; on evangelism; on Islamic fundamentalism; followed by empirical chapters analyzing a number of conflicts between the Muslim and non-Muslim world: Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Israel/Palestine.
Pope Benedict XVI’s comments in the guest book at Auschwitz, which are quoted in “La République du Dieu” led to a brief discussion of the failure of Pope Pius XII to speak out against the Holocaust, and the initiatives taken by Pope Benedict including especially his pronouncements on Islam-Christian relations. Mention was made of the controversial citation of Byzantine Emperor Manuel II Paleologus by Benedict at theUniversity of Regensburg. [The quotation that caused the uproar was “Show me just what Mohammad brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached.”] Regensburg was the site of an early pogrom carried out by Crusaders - reminding us that Christianity has its share of violent and despicable acts in the name of religion.
His familiarity with events during the turbulent period of the Russian ocupation of Afghanistanenabled him to make a number of clarifying points about the role of the U.S. during those years and put paid to the oft-repeated charge that the U.S. created the Taliban (it was the Pakistani CISI) and Bin Laden in an attempt to create a bulwark against communism by using Islamic fundamentalists. It is true that certain mujahideen commanders who had been supported by the U.S. and the CIA, later joined forces with Bin Laden, but that fact belongs in the realm of unintended consequences.
As long as Pakistan remains a haven for the Taliban, and the Pakistani border remains porous, the Afghan campaign remains a hole-in-the-dyke type of operation with virtually no hope of ultimate success. It must be remembered that 45% of the population of Afghanistan is Pashtun and the border regions of western Pakistan are populated by Pashtun. Their shared interests are not those of the western allies.
Like John Manley, some Wednesday Nighters point to the building of the infrastructure and the education of women, nurtured by the NATO occupiers, but others, probably the majority, see the campaign as a quagmire from which we must extricate ourselves as we did from Viet Nam, a humiliating experience, but one which did no lasting harm to the Republic.
If, in fact, disengagement is an accepted option, it will not take place while the current U.S. administration is in office. More probably, it would be more feasible following the November, 2008 U.S. presidential election.
The Markets
Investment Guru Ron Meisels, Wednesday Nighter with a long history of successful predictions on the cyclical nature of the stock market, currently predicts a rise in the TSX index to 16,000 by about September of this year. Not as catchy as the slogan he coined in 1995: “ten thousand by two thousand”. He also predicted the break-through of the thirteen thousand barrier in 2003.
His prediction is supported by several of the other financial experts present who explain that the current North American crisis is financial rather than economic. Given the generally good state of the world, there is considerable optimism that over the medium term - 3 to 4 years - the financial and housing market problems will have been worked out.
Meanwhile, Canada, long ignored as a fertile ground for investment by most Europeans, is becoming increasingly attractive. In addition to being the biggest supplier of energy to the United States and an important source of minerals and raw materials, Canada is poised for good economic growth in most areas with the notable exception of the banking sector.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve has moved swiftly to successfully defuse a deteriorating situation and it is not unreasonable to expect that it might do so once again by requiring the banks to take an early write-off of their current losses in order to speed up the recovery there.
In Canada, the solution to the ABCP problem is elusive as retail investors continue to claim the return of their $350 million losses as a condition of ratification of the Montreal Accord . It is likely that Chairman Purdy Crawford will recommend that their demands be met.
Emerging markets remain strong, recovering rapidly from their sympathetic drop with our markets, and are expected to ultimately recover more strongly than ours. There remains some concern, however, over increasing inflation in Southeast Asia, stemming largely from rapid increases in food costs which are leading in some areas to civil unrest.
Olympic Boycott
With Nicolas Sarkozy’s musings on boycotting the Opening Ceremony of the Olympic Games, one must keep in mind his impulsive, reactive nature. Nevertheless, it is likely that the Emperor of Japan as well as the heads of state of several Western nations will not attend, thus making a diplomatic statement without inhibiting the athletes’ participation. [Update: Prime Minister Harper has announced that he will not be attending - what about retaliation in 2010?]
The MetropolitaIn is on schedule for publication in three weeks, despite some frustrating minor delays.
Note
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QUOTES of the EVENING from recent Wednesday Nights
It’s not a Bush problem, it’s an American problem. He is playing double or nothing. He is trying to shift the responsibility from the Coalition to the Iraqis
New York City has more police officers than Iraq has troops
Thursday 20 March 2008 Bear Stearns (BSC : NYSE : US$5.33), Net Change: -0.58, % Change: -9.82%, Volume: 76,564,155
"Asses are made to bear, and so are you." - William Shakespeare. Billionaire investor Joseph Lewis and former CEO Jimmy
Cayne are pounding the pavement for a white knight, having contacted both private equity firms and overseas banks including
Barclays (BCS), HSBC (HBC), Credit Suisse (CS), and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) in a bid to find at least a preliminary
offer. Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds have also been contacted. Unfortunately, this deal can be voted against by Bear
shareholders but they are not allowed to accept another bid for a year, according to Dow Jones. And even if they do vote against
the deal, JPMorgan (JPM) can still buy up to 19.9% of BSC's shares. But the Fed can't cut interest rates every day so the stock
market went back to its regular bearish self yesterday. By the way, former Fed Chairman Paul Volker questions the Bernanke
Fed's move, saying the bailout was "a new departure. And at some point, the government ought to - in my view, the government
out to be taking responsibility for that kind of actions, not the Federal Reserve, which is an independent agency designed to
provide an ample supply of liquidity to the economy but not too much, protect against inflation, not to protect particular sectors
of the economy from bad loans."
Andy Nulman 
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