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#1363 16 Apr 2008

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Wednesday Night Salon
#1363 16 Apr 2008 Page 2

Introduction

The Report 

The Athens-3 Conference  organized by former diplomat and Wednesday Nighter, Kimon Valaskakis was by all accounts a great success.  The ultimate aim of the New School of Athens is to train planners of and participants in world government, roughly following the lines of the European Union, essential on constantly shrinking planet Earth.  It is anticipated that Kimon, Jaime Webbe and Bert Revenaz will give a live report to WN early in May (tentatively May 7).

Afghanistan

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The glory of war is a myth.  In order to preserve that myth, every effort is made to conceal the horrors and dark side of war from civilians.  We mourn the dead but conveniently hide the suffering of the maimed and physical destruction of the battleground. We need look no further than the controversy surrounding the Canadian War Museum and the (accurate) portrayal of the Bomber Offensive in WWII to understand to what lengths the authorities go to shield the public from the human costs of war. In Québec, the High School leaving history syllabus refers only to economics in discussion of WWII.

Defeats are hidden and victories proclaimed even in battles where death and destruction are the only evident victors.  Both sides claim victory at Vimy Ridge, possibly with reason.  Viet Nam was not acknowledged as a defeat for the U.S. for some time. The victory of the Allies in World War II seems obvious, but what about leaving Eastern Europe under the control of a régime that was arguably as vicious as the Nazis?

What would be victory in Afghanistan? One answer:  A situation in which, once the troops have gone home, the government would be safeguarded by indigenous security and would not be overthrown when the foreign troops depart.

Afghanistan is for both military and civilian officials a source of great frustration. It is axiomatic that wars cannot be won without the implication of indigenous troops, very difficult to achieve under current circumstances.  The key to any disengagement of Canadian troops is the creation of a functioning national army or security force. The formation and training of such a force has not been a priority with the diverse NATO commands, partly due to national (theirs not Afghanis’) sensitivities. The military public affairs policies that prevail under the Conservative government only encourage embedding by journalists from the very large media organizations - cost is a huge factor - and those journalists remain ‘behind the wire’ under relatively safe conditions.  Reporters who attempt to provide a true picture of the conflict do so at their own risk, without the protection of the military.  Those who do take the risk, paint a picture of a very difficult struggle, particularly due to the porous nature of the border with Pakistan and the inability of the border patrol to cope, due to insufficient numbers, motivation, training and equipment compared with the Taliban.

The situation within the areas of Afghanistan controlled by ISAF   is improving for civilians, with construction of infrastructure and relative stability in the urban areas.  With this improvement, however, comes a more critical view by the population of the corruption of their elected government officials who, because they recognize that following the withdrawal of foreign troops, they will have to deal with the same corrupt people that they had to deal with before their arrival.  A similar situation exists in Iraq.

General Rick Hillier’s departure 

Taking these elements into account, it becomes increasingly important for military leaders to have politico-diplomatic skills in addition to their military skills while respecting the absolute autonomy of a democratically elected parliament. Sadly, few senior Canadian military officers understand how political and civilian Ottawa functions. While senior officers will study the writings and strategy of any military opponent, it is almost unheard-of that they study the writings of their political counterparts in order to learn how to defend the interests of the military at a political level. It is important for the government to be in a position to weigh the costs, including non-monetary costs, against the advantages of waging war and this is more a military than a legislative skill.  It is in the possession of this balanced ability that the strength of General Hillier was most skilled  - in the opinion of some, he has been the greatest politician the military has had (and that’s a compliment!). It will be fascinating to see who is the new CDS, but for sure, it will be a pale imitation of General Hillier.

The Arctic   

A looming problem for  the new CDS and the government of Canada will be the development, definition and defence of the Arctic, despite a lack of appropriate equipment. [The Canadian American Strategic Review - CASR -  sums up the icebreaker situation very well]  The covering of ice in the Canadian far north and lack of knowledge of what lay beneath have long led to a complacent ignorance of the area as well as the contiguous nature and ill-defined boundary with our Russian neighbours.   The recent realization of the wealth that lies beneath the ice presents not only possible political problems between Russia, the United States and ourselves, but military implications as well if we are to deal with the situation in a fair manner.  The traditional lifestyle of the Innuit dates back to the pre-European immigrant era, but a combination of Cold War mentality that required a human Early Warning System in the event of a Russian invasion in the Far North and more ‘benevolent’ policies have dictated that they be brought together in communities (where Mothers have access to a grocery store where they can spend the Family Allowance), a social experiment which has largely proven to be a disaster. The Canadian Rangers  are also a remnant of the Cold War mentality, however they serve a useful purpose and their role could likely be enhanced to everyone’s benefit.

The inevitable development of the Far North will certainly demand diplomatic, military and civilian wisdom and it is to be hoped that General Hillier’s successor and the government of the day possess the skills required to manage all three, while accepting the integrity of Parliament.

Q. To what extent should the history of events be perpetuated (Kosovo is an example)

A. History might be equated with experience - that qualification that so many young applicants for a job lack. Had Mr. Bush had more experience (sense of history) of Iraq, he might not have made the mistakes he has.  Students do not deserve mythology, they need to understand the realities and mutability of history.

A thoughtful piece from MediaScout Canada Everybody Loves Rick “In successfully advocating for his soldiers’ welfare and arguing for the equipment they need to be effective, Hillier can be proud of having done a tough job well and amply demonstrated that he deserves the respect and affection that flow so visibly and easily between himself and his soldiers. However, in pushing so forcefully for the Afghan mission as the post-peacekeeping future of the Canadian Forces, and repeatedly linking political decisions over where and how to deploy troops with our moral obligations to respect them, Hillier crossed a dangerous, if not always clear, line between what we expect from our military leaders and what we demand from our civilian ones.”

Thursday 25 Apr 2007 To day NYT Podcast | Menu

Radio

Like the report of Mark Twain's death, reports of the death of radio –at least FM – are greatly exaggerated.


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QUOTES of the EVENING from recent
Wednesday Nights

2007

    From #1363 invite

  • It’s not a Bush problem, it’s an American problem. He is playing double or nothing. He is trying to shift the responsibility from the Coalition to the Iraqis
  • New York City has more police officers than Iraq has troops

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Friday 25 April 2008 COPENHAGEN: ARCTIC SOVEREIGNTY CONFERENCE SET
Denmark has invited high-ranking officials from Canada, the US, Norway and Russia to discuss competing claims to the Arctic. The foreign ministers of the five nations whose countries border the Arctic Ocean will meet in the Danish town of Ilulissat late next month. They plan to discuss territorial claims in the Arctic, as well as co-operation on accidents and oil spills and native peoples' issues. Canada claims jurisdiction over waters in the Northwest Passage. But the other nations, especially Russia, see the passage as an international strait that any ship should be free to transit. A warming climate in the Arctic is expected to ease access for oil drilling and mineral resources there. U.S. satellite data show the amount of ice covering the Arctic shrank to its smallest on record in September.

Wednesday, April 23 2008 Ex-Tory candidate refused money scheme
David Marler wouldn't accept funding manoeuvre

Saturday Apr 19, 2008 Race to map Arctic is about environment as much as oil: MP

Thursday Apr 17, 2008 Hillier left lasting impression on troops in Afghanistan
Soldiers spoke yesterday with regret about the impending loss of a leader who gave them a renewed sense...

Thursday 20 March 2008 Bear Stearns (BSC : NYSE : US$5.33), Net Change: -0.58, % Change: -9.82%, Volume: 76,564,155
"Asses are made to bear, and so are you." - William Shakespeare. Billionaire investor Joseph Lewis and former CEO Jimmy Cayne are pounding the pavement for a white knight, having contacted both private equity firms and overseas banks including Barclays (BCS), HSBC (HBC), Credit Suisse (CS), and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) in a bid to find at least a preliminary offer. Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds have also been contacted. Unfortunately, this deal can be voted against by Bear shareholders but they are not allowed to accept another bid for a year, according to Dow Jones. And even if they do vote against the deal, JPMorgan (JPM) can still buy up to 19.9% of BSC's shares. But the Fed can't cut interest rates every day so the stock market went back to its regular bearish self yesterday. By the way, former Fed Chairman Paul Volker questions the Bernanke Fed's move, saying the bailout was "a new departure. And at some point, the government ought to - in my view, the government out to be taking responsibility for that kind of actions, not the Federal Reserve, which is an independent agency designed to provide an ample supply of liquidity to the economy but not too much, protect against inflation, not to protect particular sectors of the economy from bad loans."

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