Wednesday 12 September 2007 Davos in the east
Corporate champions chatter in China
GIVEN the recent evolution of capitalism, it was no surprise that its high priests and priestesses, the Davos Men and Women, chose to hold their first official summer shindig in China—a symbolic rite of passage for an emerging economic superpower.
Tuesday Jan 25, 2005 from Wed1195
The World Economic Forum (Davos) opens on Wednesday. while the World Social Forum, an annual gathering of antiglobalization activists organized as an alternative to Davos, convenes in Porto Alegra, Brazil
At Davos, among other topics, the annual gathering of political and business leaders and glitterati with aspirations will discuss the report of The Forum's Global Governance Initiative which suggests that the world’s leaders are breaking their solemn promises to tackle global problems from poverty to peace to environmental protection [We wonder how much that self-evident finding cost?]
John Wright 885
887 AC
Wednesday-Night.com Salon Magazine vol 18 #886February 24, 1999 |
Alan Greenspan DAVOS FTA-NAFTA
Setting the stage, the evening opened with a video clip on Julius Grey's client, the dominatrix.INTRODUCTIONS
Bill HoltJulius Grey then introduced two new faces unrelated to the client's case: Miriam Grassby and Bill Holt. Bill, a successful businessman from Toronto is close to the world financial establishment and regularly attends the Davos meetings, but also devotes much of his time to environmental issues in tandem with Maurice Strong. An exceptionally unassuming person, he is nonetheless highly influential.
Miriam GrassbyJulius has known Miriam, a family law practitioner, for over 30 years and admits that in the early years they were opponents, not friends. Active in both the Quebec and Canadian Bar Associations, she is one of the finest lawyers in Montréal today and one of the leading thinkers in family law in the country; she has won the universal respect of the judiciary and influenced the Court of Appeals.
Julius Grey
Bob StewartRobert Stewart then introduced Jim Barrable, formerly of Air Canada Human Resources and now developing a program of Youth (18-30) Leadership in conjunction with national organisations such as the Scouts, Cadets, YMCA, YWCA and YHMA in order to assure Canada of "Leadership by Design , not Leadership by Default".
Jim BarrableLIBRARIES AND COMMUNITIES
A thoughtful piece by Roger Rosenblatt on the importance of public libraries, education, the sense of community, segued into clips of the Y2K discussion led by Gerald Ratzer and Roslyn Takeishi the previous week, community efforts to develop internet links for their citizens and, ultimately, the Victorian Night at Victoria Hall in celebration of the 125th anniversary of the first meeting of Westmount (then Notre-Dame-de-Grace) City Council. Accolades all round for Peter Trent's script and production. (Well reviewed and covered in this week's Westmount Examiner - a collector's item.)ALAN GREENSPAN AT THE HUMPHREY-HAWKINS COMMITTEE
Jacques Clément commented on the Greenspan testimony, noting that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve did not admit to the Fed's having made a mistake, but did say that after lowering the interest rate on three consecutive occasions, the Fed is still studying the effects of this action. Greenspan stated that the economy is "robust"; GDP is still at 4% while inflation is at 1.6%. Predicts 2.5-3% growth and inflation of 2.5%. (Canada's inflation is predicted for .6%.)
Jacques Clément & Diana ThébaudGreenspan also underlined that he is impressed by the efforts of the banking sector and financial markets to address the Y2K problem. The Fed is virtually compliant now. He is also pleased with Congress' approach to the budget ad investment in new technology. Jacques reminds us that this is the 9th consecutive year of economic expansion in the U.S. The unemployment figure (4.25%) is the lowest in 29 years.
The stock market (down 113 points today) is fully valued. Even if it fell by 20%, - 2 Trillion dollars - the loss would slow consumption, but not cause a recession. The worries are that business and manufacturing inventories are too large, the indebtedness of consumers is too high, the savings rate is too low (14 1/4 after-tax disposable income)*, the decline in the velocity of money (Nominal GDP/Money Growth) last year. Also clouding the picture is the figure of 10 million Americans between the ages of 16 and 64 who would like to work but do not have jobs and are not counted among the unemployed - have stopped looking.
*It was pointed out, however, that this figure does not take into account mortgae and other assets.Julius Grey, the contrarian, opined that Alan Greenspan's speech was pessimistic. Julius sees indebtedness, stock market overvaluation, impact on pension funds as serious. Low unemployment frequently means extensive self-employment which is often under-employment. People are being cut off welfare rolls. Poverty and hunger are widespread, public libraries are closing down, university funds restricted, research curtailed. Prosperity is being sacrificed at the altar of fiscal prudence which has a highly supportive media propaganda machine operating on its behalf. America will be the Titanic of the 21st century. Only in France, among the developed countries, does Julius see hope and that is because all of the political parties have their own newspapers, therefore the Right cannot get elected.
Davos
Bill Holt, as a long-time attendee at the World Economic Forum had a number of points to make. Miriam, having been there for the first time this year brought a different perspective.
Bill HoltBill reminded us that two Canadians, Maurice Strong and William Turner are among the gurus of Davos, and Maurice Strong was one of the founders of this private not-for-profit franchise. Some 1000 corporations now support the WEF and are represented; politicians, heads of international organisations and economists make up the bulk of the other delegates, with very high level media people. It is structured to discuss issues not to solve them. It is essentially an "International Townhall Meeting", very casual, even people like Jack Smith, the Chairman of General Motors, do not bring aides, secretaries or vice-presidents. The opportunity to meet world leaders on this basis is unique; it offers extraordinary networking for people who would not normally rub elbows, let alone share thoughts (e.g. Warren Beatty, Newt Gingrich, Yasser Ararfat). Encounters at Davos facilitate subsequent business and political deal-making. The presence of the scientific experts, the fellows from many different areas of research, the young interns, all contribute to making people think about issues which they do not normally address. This year's theme "Globality"was questioned, can it be controlled, are "road bumps" necessary for the system to work? There was much debate of the social impact, but no answers. Henry Kissinger commented that the economy is moving on global themes which is basically incompatible with nationally-based political movement.
Miriam spoke of Nadine Gormer's theme that much of the world is not doing well and of another address suggesting that the adversarial approach is bad for thought. Opinion makers are too concerned with being right and not sufficiently concerned with looking at all aspects of an issue. She also recounted the Lunch on Sex with a biologist from the London School of Economics which debated Darwinian theory and gender issues in the business world - why do women do better for the first ten years and then less well?
Bill commented that Canada could be proud of John Manley and Sergio Marchi who were outstanding representatives. The Québec delegation, headed by Bernard Landry, hosted an excellent and imaginative reception which featured Colette Boky and two contortionists from the Cirque de Soleil [Editor's Note: the latter being peculiarly appropriate to our current provincial government's philosophy and programme]. John Ciaccia mentioned that when he was at Davos, he had made numerous useful contacts with individuals with whom he would later work to promote Quebec trade. He also stated that there had been a workshop on Quebec separation and he had been impressed by the knowledge displayed of the intricacies of the question.
Tony Deutsch, Miriam Grassby , William Holt, Julius GreyWhile recognizing the undoubted value of networking and mind-stretching, several Wednesday Night questioners expressed reservations concerning the overall contribution of the Davos Forum to the world order.
One commented "But do you have to go to Davos, at a cost of U.S. $30,000 to think about these things?
A second questioned whether the Forum gives any indication of the political will to solve real Third World problems such as finding a cure for malaria, ensuring a world supply of clean drinking water, food security, decent standards of living in Sub-Saharan Africa. Obviously the wherewithal is present at Davos, but is it channeled?
Dr. Tony DeutschA third raised the need to find solutions for the vast movements of people to new cultures and their inability to adapt their cultures and skills to the needs of their adoptive countries and the adoptive countries' inability to absorb them either productively or appropriately.
To these and other comments, Bill responded by reminding us that Davos' influence lies in its power to convene; it is up to those who come to learn to work subsequently to solve the world's problems. However, he and Miriam described this year's Peace Initiative with four people in their 30's representing four areas of the world where peace is tenuous at best: Northern Ireland, the Middle east, South Africa and Bosnia as an illustration of the Forum's ability to espouse solutions to problems of global concern and showcase them in such a way that they may attract support of not only governments, but also of the business leaders who influence policy.
Dr. Hans Black was there at Davos... see last Wedmesday
[If you have the money/position, then enjoy... Davos is FUN that is what matters. Davos is not for the lesser people! DTN]
Thursday 25 February 1999 Rich-poor gap growing, panel warns. Liberals told SUE BAILEY The gap between Canada's rich and poor is growing with alarming speed and Ottawa should be doing more to slow it down, say 20 experts who examined living standards yesterday at a post-budget conference.
Most slammed the federal Liberals, especially Finance Minister Paul Martin, saying he ignores how the nation's poor are falling farther behind the rich.
NAFTA
Canada and the U.S. are now at the end of the adjustment period. Not everyone is happy, but it has been successful. Exports are up and so is productivity (although lower than it should be). However, as predicted, some jobs were lost. The Dispute resolution mechanism is working and is in some ways a Supra-national body whose decisions the U.S. Congress respects. Its role as a protection against U.S. protectionism is not well understood or appreciated.Quebec has certainly benefited, while Ontario has not. The FTA has created a $100 million textile business, essentially saving the textile business in Québec. Before FTA, Québec had a $3 billion trade deficit, it now enjoys a $6 billion surplus. Of course, some of Québec's enthusiasm for FTA was based on a reduced reliance on Ontario.
Would NAFTA have been so successful had the Canadian dollar had a higher value? Were it not for the automotive trade, would the trade figures be so good? Certainly the Automotive Pact was a key ingredient to FTA.
It was mentioned that Canada and particularly Canadian businesses tend to downplay publicly the benefits they have enjoyed from FTA because they fear that the Americans may then decide to challenge some of those areas.
BILL C-55 AND RETALIATION BY U.S.
Although the proposed legislation is now in abeyance, there was a lively discussion of the legality and the effectiveness of protecting Canadian culture by protecting two large publishing enterprises: Telemedia and Maclean Hunter. Probably both the provisions of C-55 (the outlawing of Canadian advertising in split-run publications) and the proposed retaliation against Canadian steel would be illegal.
Jean-Pierre BertrandAlan Mass pointed out that the might of the U.S. steel industry has been greatly diminished because mills in the States are old in comparison with the post World War II plants in Germany and Korea.
Protection for Canadian magazines could be accomplished equally well through tax rules, levels and thresholds. The problem is peculiar to North America, linguistic barriers in Europe preclude the concerns of domination by one country's media, although we have seen attempts by France to curtail the American influence in films.
>IUCN, the World Conservation Union 5oth Anniversary
Mac Mercer distributed copies of the special 16-page advertising section in Newsweek celebrating the 50th anniversary of the creation of IUCN, the World Conservation Union. Entirely paid for by advertisers, Degussa, Hoechst Marion Roussel and Vivendi, the attractive and compelling message reached the world-wide audience so important to IUCN's work. This would have been impossible had Newsweek had to produce a number of split-run editions with constraints on advertising and content. THANK YOU AND GOODNIGHT Speaking for all of those present, Jacques Clément thanked Bill and Miriam for their enthusiastic and informative participation and invited them to return as often as possible. Following mention of Jacques' birthday on Saturday, there was a brief serenade led by Susan Eyton Jones and Father David Oliver.
Diana Thébaud
From notes taken by David Oliver, Gerald Ratzer and Diana Thébaud Nicholson Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson
Do see ...we had such a good time with John Wright (portfolio manager of Babson-Stewart Ivory )
Our Y2k Wednesday Night experts, Roslyn Takeishi and Gerald Ratzer, will be appearing this week in a 2½ minute video followed by clips from the Victoria Hall great Westmount histoy show
Roslyn Takeishi
Gerald Ratzer amd Roslyn Takeishi took part in a panel on Y2K issues for Westmount under the auspices of the WMA on Tuesday Night. We will expect them to hold forth brilliantly on the subject on Wednesday (but not for too long! just a 2½ min video)
David Mitchell, who organised the previous evening's public meeting on "Y2K and You , Westmount resident" gave a brief summary of what transpired. Roslyn Takeishi reiterated her reassuring words regarding the fact that nobody in Westmount lost money in any of the banks during the ice storm last year and said that she felt quite confident that the City of Westmount now has things well in hand.
Hydro-Québec has stated that it is 80% compliant - but does anybody trust them?
SEE our Y2k site
Test your VCR by setting the date/time to Dec 31 1999 11:55p.m.; go have a drink and if it does not blow up and the date/time is ok ...fine. If the date is wrong, at the end of 1999, set the date to 1970, the year which is the same as 2000 including Feb 29th.
our Medical Web ..Super Hospital
================ 30 ===================== Monday, February 22, 1999
DONALDSON, LUFKIN & JENRETTE MORNING MEETING SUMMARY
Equity Strategy
- Tom Galvin
- the tech stocks as measured by the NASDAQ are off 10% from their highs. Tom expects that the Tech stocks will consolidate for a while yet. In the mean time he expects that leadership in the market will be found in the financials, consumer cyclicals, and communication service stocks.
- percentage of NYSE stocks above their 10-week moving average indicator is now in oversold territory for the first time since last October. Tom notes that when we reach these levels there is little to point to as a catalyst for a turnaround but they have usually been very good buying opportunities
- at the current time market breadth is very narrow as measured by the advance / decline line. Tom expects that as earnings growth re-accelerates later this year the market will broaden out
Economic Commentary
- Richard Hokenson
- the outcome of last weekend's G-7 meeting seems to be acceptance of a strong $US. This is an inevitable outcome of the divergent growth rates between Europe and the US. Later this year the appreciation should be offset by re-converging interest rate differentials
- while the $US is expected to be strong Richard notes that it will be below the levels seen last year so from a currency perspective many US corporations should be able to post year over year translation gains
- as far as the US economy is concerned Richard expects more of the same. Richard is looking for 6% GDP growth in the 1Q99 from much higher than expected tax refunds. Inflation is expected to remain subdued for the remainder of the year
- Richard expects that the stock market will continue to work higher driven by strong earnings growth.
Coca-Cola
- Skip Carpenter
- KO $65.75 Market Perform Target: $68.00
- management has endorsed EPS estimates for 1999 of $1.45-$1.50. However their comments regarding Latin America were cautious. Latin America is a major region for KO.
- management has not changed their guidance for 7-8% volume growth but they did say that this forecast was dependent on stabilization in a number of markets. Since the beginning of the year Brazil has continued to deteriorate
- management has indicated that it will remain focused on creating value over the long term.
- EPS EST: 1999E $1.46; 2000E $1.69
Gaming Stocks
- Brian Egger
- the gaming stocks have rallied of late based on improving fundamentals in Las Vegas
- Brian would continue to be a buyer of the group based on: 1) signs that the Asian situation is stabilzing
2) valuations are still low on a historic basis
3) there is still a large short position on many names in the group
- Brian's TOP PICK in the group is Mirage (MIR Target: $24). MIR is showing stronger than expected results at its new Bellagio casino. Brian expects that MIR's earnings will grow at a 20% rate over the next 5 years. In trading at 16X the 1999 consensus earnings estimates MIR's valuation is still attractive
Thursday, February 18, 1999
Call-Net (CN.B $10.40) - J. Henderson (CN.B $5.50) Recommendation: 1-Strong Buy, Market Risk 1-Yr Target: $16.00 Call-Net's Q4 results were below expectations as a result of start-up costs from local and internet operations and delays in operating synergies from the Fonorola merger. We expect costs savings from the merger to be material in Q2/99 when it migrates most of its traffic to its own network. Operating costs savings are also expected through the integration of Call-Net's and Fonorola's duplicate operating systems. Shares are likely to remain under pressure in the near term. Longer term, the cost benefits of operating its own network and the revenue gains from its start-up local and U.S. long distance data services should propel the stock higher.
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Wednesday 24 February 1999 Bombardier seen as WTO victor The World Trade Organization's ruling on the Bombardier-Embraer subsidy battle could be the opposite of what media reports have suggested. It could mean a big victory for Bombardier.
Alex WeinsteinMedia reports on the World Trade Organization's ruling in the aerospace battle between Montreal's Bombardier Inc. and its Brazilian rival, Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica SA, have portrayed Canada's Technology Partnerships Canada aid program and Bombardier as the principal losers. But the opposite may be true, said one knowledgeable source, who did not want to be identified.
Susan Eyton-Jones for Jacques Clément
Wednesday 24 February 1999 Bombardier seen as WTO victor The World Trade Organization's ruling on the Bombardier-Embraer subsidy battle could be the opposite of what media reports have suggested. It could mean a big victory for Bombardier.
David Nicholson
Media reports on the World Trade Organization's ruling in the aerospace battle between Montreal's Bombardier Inc. and its Brazilian rival, Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica SA, have portrayed Canada's Technology Partnerships Canada aid program and Bombardier as the principal losers. But the opposite may be true, said one knowledgeable source, who did not want to be identified.
Saturday 6 February 1999 Canadians enjoy life in the oasis JAY BRYAN Alan Greenspan, who is arguably the most powerful single influence on the world economy, has been warning us for months, .. "You cannot have the U.S. as an oasis of prosperity if the rest of the world is in serious trouble," he said.
Since we live in a global economy, the U.S. central banker's words doubtless will be vindicated eventually. But not just yet. Not only is the U.S. an oasis of prosperity, it is such a fruitful oasis that there's even enough growth for Canada to share. ... The dollar closed this week at a six-month high of 67.08 cents U.S., offering hope that Canadians might once again be able to hold up their heads at shopping malls and warm-weather resorts south of the border. Forecasters say it could keep rising, supported by increasing Canadian export earnings in the U.S.
Recent evenings
876 Desert Fox 16 Dec, 1998
The Star for Fr. David Oliver
874 with Marcus Hope of Great Britan 2 Dec, 1998
873 pre vote with John Ciaccia 25 Nov, 1998
872 with John Ciaccia 18 Nov, 1998 by Michael Judson Edited Diana Thébaud Nicholson
871 with Martin Barnes 11 Nov, 1998 by Herbert Bercovitz Edited Diana Thébaud Nicholson
869 with J. Grey Oct 28, 1998 by Herbert Bercovitz and Andrea Lavergne Edited Diana Thébaud Nicholson
© 1997 by David T. Nicholson
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