889 Wednesday-Night.com
Salon Magazine vol 18

March 17, 1999

david.nicholson's

DOW Reuters TSE Reuters DOW Weather

Send this
to a friend

Bloomberg Chart
Dow today

#888

890

889
Dow 10,000

Wednesday-Night.com

Wednesday 17th 1999

Wednesday-Night #889

Colour this Wednesday green. Green for St. Patrick and the Emerald Isle, of course.
Green for hope that Afghanistan may be on the way to settling its long-time feuds and agony; green (pale) for hope that the Kosovo talks will bear fruit and that Turkey and the Kurds will somehow come to terms.
Green for the colour of money - all that money to be made in the restructuring of the Canadian stock exchanges.
Green for the countries of the Fertile Crescent and the oil they produce - what will OPEC do next?
Green for envy - the Alberta budget gives rise to much.
Green for one of the battered Olympic rings - and the Lords of....
Green for Paris in the Springtime, Mecca of culture.... Why, oh why, are the central figures in the cultural shenanigans all women???
No green beer required, but lots of blarney as usual.
David and Diana Nicholson

Wednesday Night Salon, March 17th #889

Pierre Bossé & Guy Stanley

A goodly number for a Saint's Day and a fresh new face introduced by Pierre Bossé. Guy Stanley is an associate of Pierre's in International Project Development at Université de Montréal. Guy teaches International Trade and has a specific interest in the Biotech and Telecom sectors of the Canadian economy.
Ireland and irritants
Keeping to the announced St. Patrick's Day theme, there was a quick clip of the Japanese band which marched in the New York Parade, followed by shots of the visit of the Irish P.M. to Washington and of Gerry Adams who may not be able to deliver the de-commissioning of the IRA.

Gerald Ratzer

Gerald Ratzer underlined the religious roots of the Irish problem and the efforts that are being made to take religion out of education in Ireland so that the next generation might grow up without the old prejudices and hatreds.
In response to David's usual comment that "religion should be outlawed", it was decided that his unfortunate phrasing should be replaced by "religion should be privatised".
Colonels, Condos and Copps

Me Jill Hugessen

Peter Trent gave an update on the battle over the former Canadian Land Forces headquarters on Atwater. While Montreal's Executive Committee has approved the zoning change in the face of great opposition, the deal with Lepine is conditional, not yet a fait accompli. Peter feels strongly that the fault lies with the Feds and that pressure must be placed on Sheila Copps to review the fate of this heritage building which has been classified. Concerted lobbying should be conducted with Minister Robillard to make sure that she represents the concerns of her constituency to Heritage Canada. Please see Mayor Trent's excellent piece in the Examiner on this subject.
Responding to several questions, our Mayor stated that it is quite possible for Westmount to include this area in the lands which have already requested annexation by Westmount (The Westmount Wannabes), a subject which he has discussed with both former Mayor Jean Doré and with Mayor Bourque.
Downloading
NO! NON!
An up-date on the court action reminded us that the case is in Superior Court and should be decided by the end of the summer. The contention of Westmount and its co-plaintiffs is that the downloading is unconstitutional because we are not receiving services in return for the increased taxes. The case is being pleaded by Bélanger Sauvé and Lavery de Billy with Westmount's share of the costs a mere $20, 000 versus the $7 Million we have to gain.
The Colour of Money
A short video clip on the new U.S. $20 bill raised the question of why "greenbacks". The short answer is that that was the colour of the ink in greatest supply at the time.
The Euro

Tony Deutsch

Tony Deutsch stated that in his opinion the Euro is functioning as it was supposed to, - the current weakness (it has lost +/- 6% against the US $) is nothing more than a low. We can expect it to fluctuate for a while. However, there are problems with growing in-fighting among the European countries (the resignation of the German Finance Minister was noted and applauded) and meddling with interest rates.
Jacques Clément suggested that the Euro rate fixed in December with an 18% premium vis-à-vis the US $ was too high and the premium complicated the "snakes" (interrelationships of currencies to the uninitiated). Also, the U.S. economy is stronger than expected. A rate of 1.12 USD/Euro would be more correct now and would encourage exports from Europe to the U.S. (provided, of course, that the trade wars dissipate!).

Bill Holt at Davos

Ron Meisels discussed Conrad Black's speech at the recent Couchiching Winter Conference Why the Euro now? The adoption of the Euro was essential as a unifying factor. Black suggested that England would become a conduit between Europe and North America - we are reminded that Newt Gingrich talked at Davos last year about England joining NAFTA.

Tony Deutsch

Tony's reaction is that a common currency for the current 11 members is reasonable, but he has doubts about the wisdom of extending the membership further. The rate of growth of the 11 is now being revised downward to 2%.
Ethics in Euro-land and Elsewhere

Guy Stanley

There was inevitably a brief mention of the resignation of the entire European Commission following the report of the 7 Sages. As the blame was unevenly distributed, the members had little option but to all go. Guy Stanley pointed out that the Commission's agenda is crowded, management skills to handle out sourcing are sadly lacking. Has the affair been blown out of proportion by the media? No, these are PUBLIC funds. Edith Cresson's dentist should not receive a scientific advisory contract.
Next week's summit in Berlin will be complicated by this event. Who will replace Jacques Santer, the Commission's president and will there be temporary nominations to fill the vacant posts until after the European Parliament elections in June? Timing is delicate. (Editor's Note: a good piece on this question may be found on page A-13 of the Globe & Mail of March 23rd under Peter Cook's always reliable by-line [not found online])
Parallels were drawn between the European Commission, the IOC, Ottawa and B.C. with the suggestion made that it would be nice if the European Commissioners who appear to have scruples would immigrate to BC. While all agree that any "large, complex organisation" is bound to face difficulties, there was lively debate about whether an organisation must remain "squeaky-clean" in the face of an opportunity. One consideration is that under some circumstances "gifts" are the only source of pension plans for individuals who may have short-lived careers in their own governments or organisations. But, should our companies (let alone governments) be providing social safety nets for assorted LTPCs (Little Tin Pot Countries)? Most agreed that in such cases there is a profound difference between the administration of public and private monies.
Should governments restrict the practices of businesses which may be required to grease palms in other countries in order to obtain contracts? One guest gave a case study of a large Canadian company's practices in three situations. First, in a foreign country when it is on its own (deal through one local agent, give him guidelines and a commission and remain at arm's length from whatever he does). Second, when bidding jointly with a U.S. company which has to follow even more stringent laws and remains even further insulated from questionable practices. Third, when bidding on contracts for U.S. based clients (the client company is expected to set the rules as to what is acceptable relationship-building - lunch, a weekend trip….)
His conclusion: "There's very little fun to be had as a client of this company"!
The MSE and the Minister's Musings
This week's news about the division of markets among the Canadian stock exchanges was greeted with enthusiasm. Even Bernard Landry, while stating that the QSC has the authority to decide and the Québec Government will have its say is trumpeting that "We are consolidating Montreal's position as a financial centre". The move is in line with current international trends and eliminates competition among smaller exchanges. In the view of at least one expert, it is long overdue. Montreal's activity is already 70% in derivatives. This is a growth industry. Consolidation of the equities markets in Toronto is only confirmation of reality.
Why Toronto would be willing to leave the derivatives to Montreal? Toronto tried to develop that market some 10 years ago and failed. That was when the negotiations began. Could Toronto go back on this decision 5-10 years from now? Unlikely, especially as by then most trading will be electronic (even Stephen Jarislowsky says so). Furthermore, Toronto is putting $40 M into the restructuring of the MSE - this is a long-term arrangement.
The one concern is the effect on the liquidity of Québec's small-cap companies which will now be traded on the Western exchange where they will not have the same profile as at home. Also, many of the owners of these dynamic small companies do not speak English. Gerald Lacoste has indicated that he is giving this thought - maybe a small, specialized exchange? This is the area that Bernard Landry's special committee will be looking at. The Caisse seems to have nuanced its position and will take part in Landry's committee. 10,000 in 2,000
Ron Meisels was applauded for correctly predicting the 10,000 Dow. He based the prediction (in '95) on the annual growth rate between 1942 and 1962 (8% compounded). He feels that now that the Dow has reached the mystical number it will not go beyond it for long. Ralph Acampora appeared on screen to predict that the Dow would reach 11,500 by the end of '99. His recipe for successful trading : "you avoid (the stocks) going down". Moneyline spoke of the "Economy of Dreams", fundamentals strong, solid economy, no overheating. How to interpret Alan Greenspan's remarks that the U.S. economy is being stretched in various directions". The upsides and downsides are both larger. The Fed is still sitting on the fence.
According to Jeff Rubin (CIBC), the stock market is now 250% of GDP, as opposed to 50% 15 years ago. Tony Deutsch believes that this is attributable to changing relationships between stocks and their underlying values. Meisels traces the origin of the boom to '82 when stocks were very cheap; the current boom started to manifest itself in '95 due to lower interest rates, but now stocks have become "quite expensive".
An intra-Hungarian debate of cost versus value of stocks followed. The audience believes that it was a draw.
Ron predicts continuing low interest rates, keeping the market high for 2-3 years. He also reminds us that the market continues to be selective in its bullishness. There is money to be made in high tech stocks, but not all of them. In his inimitable way, Tony summarized the situation "some stocks are selling at vast multiples of their losses".
Oil Prices are moving up with the cut-back on production, but will all members of OPEC adhere? Will the Saudis' economic problems lead to cheating? "Cartels always cheat". [DTN sees Marked down by next week]
Marie Cormier was congratulated on the twentieth anniversary of her admission to the Bar which she will celebrate on Friday the 19th.

Pierre Bossé Guy Stanley & Robert Ackerman

From Notes by Robert Ackerman and Diana Thébaud Nicholson Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson

See our first Surround Pan of "la cucina" at 388 Victoria

Eric McConomy

Tuesday 16 March 1999 Looking to the futures Montreal Exchange swaps its stocks for derivatives
We said on the 10th that this would happen!

Bill Holt

See extend deLavigne through the project, to Atwater? Not a good project!?

Stratton D. Stevens

Thank you to Andrew de Courcy-Ireland for the comments below

This is typical of what we see at our Stk Forecasts page
or Stk forecast Banks

Straton Stevens

Fr. David Oliver

See Monday, February 15, 1999 The Oettinger Letter on Risks in Russia

please see Montreal Univ. Stories file for "..Quebec might penalize any students who accept the federal scholarship money by deducting an equal amount from any provincial financial aid they might be entitled to.
SEE our Y2k site
#888 890

our Medical Web ..Super Hospital