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Mihailo Crnobrnja Former Yugoslav Ambassador to the EEC

Wednesday-Night.com
Salon Magazine vol 18

March 31, 1999

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Wednesday-Night.com
Salon Magazine vol 18
March 31, 1999

These days it is not easy to set an agenda for Wednesday-Night. There is a tradition that wars start - and end - on Wednesdays, and this generally occurs without advance notice.

Guy & Dee

Nonetheless, in response to David's frequent statement that "we need more people who make things", Carroll McCormick introduced Michel Coté Sr., the owner and president of Hexco Inc. who has created a company, Junior Motorcycle MFG Inc., to manufacture Canada's first motorcycle.

Carroll McCormick
Brent Walker

DOT approval has already been granted in Canada and once US DOT approval has been obtained in the next 4-8 weeks, the company will go into production; some 50 dealers in the US have already expressed their interest in selling these motorcycles.
We most certainly will mention the sunny outlook for Montreal currently trumpeted in our Gazette, and the sudden about-face on the Expos' stadium from Quebec. We also look to Mayor Peter for an update on the weekend's meetings of the Suburban Mayors with Mme Harel.
Kosovo
Considerable discussion was devoted to the NATO bombing campaign in the remnants of Yugoslavia. We saw video and sound news clips: people lining up for gas ( juxtaposed that in WW II, people lined up for bread, not gas), candles and other supplies, crackdowns on media outlets; White House briefings, Yeltsin, Milosevic, explosions over Belgrade, refugees, attacks on Kosovar villages and people….
Is NATO correct to carry out the threat to intervene? Should the threat have been made??
Opinions around the table are deeply divided on many aspects of this issue. Some of the points raised:

As soon as Yugoslavia begins to break up, every little part of the country would seek independence. One guest reminds us of the reasons that the word "balkanization" exists in the English language. (Editor's Note: see Globe & Mail, Tuesday March 23, Balkan powder keg: 10 years of terror N/F)

Dr. Mihailo Crnobrnja

As our good friend Misha would remind us, the history of Kosovo, ever since the 1389 battle in which a Serbian hero (Prince Lazar) was killed is so closely identified with Serb nationalism that it is unthinkable to Serbs to permit full autonomy, let alone annexation to Albania

Why didn't the UN begin to prepare for this eventuality two years ago, all the indicators were evident then? Instead we have an intervention which is U.S. driven, a fact that is somewhat disturbing, if not illegal.. This should be a UN initiative.

The Security Council would not sanction action because the Russians and Chinese would veto. The UN tries to work through regional forces (e.g. the Organisation for African Unity in Africa); in this event, NATO is the appropriate regional force. There has been a public outcry because of the atrocities, something had to be done to avert another humanitarian disaster and NATO has responded, but NOT as a political force.

The atrocities have been so vast that the solution cannot be political, i.e., a UN solution. The media have contributed to a build-up of public opinion particularly in Europe where the proximity of the problem is more acutely felt and where a military response has at least initial public support.

The long-standing nature of the ethnic disagreements there does not lend itself to a solution.

This is the first opportunity that the U.S. has had to replace Russia as the major influence in this area. (Editor's note: see Montreal Gazette Analysis, Saturday March 27 Why Kosovo? by Hilary Mackenzie n/a).

We waited too long to intervene in Bosnia. (Some NATO members have wanted to move in for some 2 or more years). The NATO air strikes and intervention is the best among a set of bad solutions.

One hopeful sign: the Chargés d'affaires in Washington and Belgrade have not yet been recalled.

Questions for Dr. Mihailo Crnobrnja

So is there a legal framework for the NATO campaign?
One guest opines that Clinton has failed to construct a legal basis for the venture, in contrast to the traditional highly legalistic Russian approach.. Milosevic may have a point. This intervention can be perceived as meddling in internal affairs. Typically, before acting, we have waited for refugees to cross borders and internationalize a problem. He continued: "I'm not sure you are going to stop ethnic cleansing. I think you are going to increase it as long as this intervention persists." Is going in without a legal basis opening a can of worms that is worse than the problem the campaign is supposed to solve?
We heard one chargé d'affaires on a news broadcast insist that the intervention is completely without justification "our troops don't threaten anyone except terrorists". A Serbian ambassador stated simply "Serbs will never give this (Kosovo) up". Another news commentator claims that the intervention is in violation of international law.
Another individual suggests that NATO intervention will be OK if Milosevic can be punished and equilibrium restored. Generally 5-10% of the population exhibits severe anti-social tendencies and it is most often these individuals who seek and obtain power. "The wrong people are in power" and exert malevolent influence over the broader population in order to remain in power.
Said another, "The danger of not proceeding with a military intervention is not as great as what has taken place. Might the best solution be moving populations, segregating, dividing?" Another question: Is the racial hatred promulgated by a small number of ultra-nationalists? Whatever the answer, the bombing will serve to unite the population behind Milosevic rather than creating unrest (e.g. Coventry, Dresden in World War II).

John agrees with Mihailo

Ron Meisels [last week] comments: "This situation shows that the US in now the [sole] superpower. They won the battle with the USSR. What is the danger of having one superpower, overpowering every other nation on the earth?" John Ciaccia. responded by saying, "fortunately the Americans are idealists, going back to Woodrow Wilson and American actions in saving the world in two World Wars. I would rather put my eggs in the American basket than any other basket".

Wednesday Night Salon #891
March 31, 1999

Michel Côté

Stefan Ikonomouski

The evening opened, as promised, with the introduction by Carroll McCormick of Michel Côté Sr., the owner and president of Hexco Inc. who, with his son has created a company, Junior Motorcycle MFG Inc., to manufacture Canada's first motorcycle. Gerald Ratzer introduced his guest, Stefan Ikonomovski,who has just completed a Master's degree at McGill in Computer Science that was sufficiently good to put Stefan on the Dean's Honours list. Born in Macedonia, Stefan trained in the Yugoslav army as a commando and is also a qualified pilot. Over the Christmas - New Year holiday he was back in Macedonia and so could give a recent perspective. He is currently working at a local Montreal computer system development house.
Urban issues
Real Estate Boom
Mayor Peter pointed out that Mayor Bourque has been trying to reverse the effects of Mayor Doré's policies which drove the middle class away from City centre. Despite the urban renewal, there is still a relatively small number of people living in Montreal proper.
Although there has been only a relatively modest economic recovery, there has been a sudden rise in real estate prices (Westmount's within "spitting distance" of the high of 1989) and in rapid turnover of the larger houses across the MUC.
(NB: a neighboring house on Rosemount Avenue had a sign up for half a day and sold for $1.2 million.)

Roslyn and Jacques

The explanation for this phenomenon suggested by Roslyn Takeishi is that individuals are disappointed by the return on their investments and are reallocating assets. Tony Deutsch concurs.

Tony Deutsch
Brent Walker

Another guest alluded to the new book by Diane Francis in which she recommends Montreal real estate as one of the best buys in Canada.
The Technodome Project
The Reichmans' project for the area just west of Cité du Havre is not a firm deal. The Montreal site may be no more than a negotiating ploy given that Toronto has not agreed to the first choice site in that city. If the project does come to Montreal, the condition of that land could be a problem; it was the main parking lot during Expo 67 and there were serious problems of noxious gasses under the asphalt.
Montreal - Mega-city or not?

Peter Trent getting legal

Mayor Peter Yeomans of Dorval sums up the suburban mayors' reaction to the merger proposals from Minister Harel we're not ready for municipal cleansing. There is concern that services and quality of life in the megacity would deteriorate for most citizens, the levels dropping to the lowest common denominator. Economies of scale drove Toronto to amalgamation, but Mayor Peter Trent cited the research conducted by a professor at Western University that proves that in fact the cities studied all experienced increases in costs along with concurrent drops in service levels. See: "Beware Merger Mania", Henry Aubin's column in The Gazette, March 31st. Please goto our amalgamation page for Trent's thoughts and this and other links. [Amalgamation will happen if those opposed don't improve their arguments DTN]

Reed Stefan Peter

In response to Reed Scowen's comment regarding his very pleasant recent experience with the Stanton Street Police Station, Mayor Peter reminded him that Westmount had fought hard to maintain the decentralized service, giving Westmount residents the community policing Reed admires.
Carroll McCormick likened the different municipalities to individual shops that offer unique mixes of products and services suited to the customers. Mega-cities resemble the Big Box stores offering lower prices but limited choice.
His Worship commented that it is strange that governments in general opposed to private monopolies Banks(e.g. the bank mergers) have no qualms about limiting the people's choice in this matter. Montreal does indeed have a problem: a high percentage of poor people, and high taxes that have caused the flight of the middle class to the suburbs. Let's deal with those problems by:

restoring the public transit subsidies removed by Claude Ryan;
Creating a tax on development beyond Montreal's borders;
Developing a method of tax base sharing.
The suburban mayors responded Tuesday to the merger proposal with a plan of their own that proposes a new regional superstructure to replace the ailing MUC. The sphere of influence of the new development commission would include Laval and the South Shore, effectively embracing over half of the population of Québec. Minister Harel has not yet responded. Mayor Bourque was not consulted. More to come undoubtedly. See: "Mayors detail new plan" , by Michael Mainville, The Gazette, March 31st
Alliance Quebec

Jacques Clément
Carroll McCormick

The current in-fighting at Alliance Quebec and the race between Pit Bill Johnson and John Trent (no relation) has attracted considerable media attention. While there were comments that John Trent's politics are preferable to Johnson's, those who follow this closely feel that he would not be a great improvement. He would take the Alliance back at least three years and it would become dead in the water. In Reed Scowen's view, the problem with AQ is that it has strayed from its mandate - to promote the English language - and is bogged down in a vision of the Anglos as an ethnic minority. This is because it is dominated by off-islanders whOWN to protect a way of life. The solution? Vote for Johnson and see AQ self-destruct. Only then can a new organization assume the original mandate.
Junior Motorcycle MFG Inc

Click for first in Canada see also another first

Michel Côté described the development of his motorcycle manufacturing company and their current status (awaiting approval from the U.S. DOT). He stated that he had not sought, nor received any assistance from government, neither in loans, grants nor in marketing. John Ciaccia suggested that he should look at participation in trade missions in order to expand overseas markets, but he replied that as the product is truly custom-made, at this stage his greatest fear is of growing too fast.
Brent Walker suggested that there are R&D tax credits that the company's accountants should apply for automatically.

Answers from Prof. Mihailo Crnobrnja

Kosovo, the Balkans and the West
At this moment, to the delighted surprise of the guests, good friend and absentee Wednesday Nighter, Mihailo Crnobrnja appeared. Misha is currently a guest professor at William and Mary College in Williamsburg, Virginia where, in addition to teaching, he is organizing a top level conference April 9th-10th with General Wesley Clark as the keynote speaker and a roster of luminaries who will discuss topics like The Future of the Balkans (Eagleburger) and What's Gone Wrong (Zimmerman).

Udo Stundner

With Misha's arrival, the discussion turned immediately to the conflict in/over Kosovo with lively debate and pertinent input from a number of experts with both European and North American perspectives.
The increasingly depressing news and a change in the attitudes of the European and North American press towards the NATO intervention has sown the seeds of many doubts in the minds of those gathered around the table. It has become apparent that the bombing of Serbia was undertaken without any thought to an exit strategy. It seems impossible that the leaders of the Western world with all of the professional diplomats, foreign policy experts, think tanks, advisors and other staff available could be so blind and stupid as to ignore historical precedents and cultures. Misha offered an analogy between Yugoslavia and its constituents with the movement of tectonic plates. The different ethnic groups, and different state regions are the cause of great tensions and great collisions. Macedonia, for instance, has four hostile neighbours. People are fighting for their values and what is needed is an exit strategy based on democratic values.
(Editor's note: see Maureen Dowd of the New York Times in National Post, April 1 "Buzzing with testosterone" saved)

Misha stated that President Clinton was convinced by Secretary of State Albright that "the Serbs are bullies and only understand force", therefore, Holbrooke's ultimatum to Milosevic was designed to convince him that NATO would destroy him. Milosevic didn't blink. So NATO had to attack or lose credibility. Naturally the Serbs responded by hitting the KLA. The whole disaster was predictable. The West totally misread Milosevic and drew parallels with Serbia which are not valid. Bosnia was not a part of Serbia whereas Kosovo is. Milosevic cannot sacrifice Kosovo for all of the historical reasons with which we are familiar, he would be dead politically.
It appears to some around the table that Milosevic essentially lured the Alliance into intervening and thus assisting him in the ethnic cleansing operations of the last six days. Bear in mind that it is not only ethnic Albanians who are fleeing Kosovo, Serbs are fleeing the war zone too. Meantime, the NATO action has facilitated the movement into Kosovo of the paramilitary and even the convict brigade to assist the police in evicting the "undesirables", thus helping to create the Humanitarian Crisis which all deplore - the removal of tens of thousands of people across the borders to Albania, Montenegro and Macedonia, straining those countries' capacities to cope. Some suspect that the efficiency of these activities is no accident, that the plan existed and only awaited the Allies' attack. See: "Milosevic's Mission Accomplished" by Harry Sterling, The Gazette, March 31st n/a

Prof. Mihailo Crnobrnja

Now, as the bombings have resulted only in coalescing the Serbs around Milosevic, Clinton is under pressure to commit ground troops, as the war cannot be won in the air. (Why is air power always over-rated and over-stated, asks Tony Deutsch.) Misha described it as a strategy of despair and argued that
Assuming :

That all NATO countries go along with this escalation (not a given as there are already signs of differences of opinion, if not cold feet on the part of some members);
That Russian objections are somehow contained and there is no damage to Russia's relations with the NATO countries;
That the "winning of Kosovo" by NATO occurs at "acceptable cost" in terms of NATO losses, that the Serbs prove to be inadequately trained and retreat.
Milosevic would then (rightly) declare Kosovo occupied by foreign powers. What will NATO do? Hand it over to Albania? The Serbs would then counter-invade, NATO would return … and the war zones would shift to Bosnia, Montenegro, Macedonia… in a deadly game of musical chairs. What if Milosevic were removed from power?
This would be very difficult. He has support on this issue from the people far beyond his normal support and even if there were dissident factions in the army, the army will never move against the people. The sanctions have consolidated his power. If he were to be removed by force, a convinced nationalist would no doubt take his place and that could be even worse.
Is there an end to the crisis?
Yes, said Misha, but we are looking at a very long term framework. This crisis is now in the league with Northern Ireland, Kashmir, Sri Lanka and the Middle East. No quick fix is possible. There would have to be a change from confrontational to cooperational policy.
In the immediate future, how do we deal with the U.S. intransigence? The Russian feeler was turned down cold by Clinton.
"There would need to be face-saving mechanisms. The Allies would have to back off and agree to examine Milosevic's counter-proposal" said Misha. The negotiations at Rambouillet and after were not in any sense negotiations, the Allies put forward a proposal and said sign it, or else.
"In the event that a new strategy were followed, the Allies would have to be prepared not only to back off, but also to offer some incentives such as integration of Serbia into the International Financial Institutions system." What if the United States (and Britain), admitting they really had underestimated the complexities of Balkan politics, said "Let the Balkans work it out among themselves"?
Unlikely. The Western alliance is an empty shell and the U.S. is trying to give it new life which most easily comes from a common (perceived) enemy. Furthermore, the outrage in the West over the humanitarian crisis, fuelled by media reports, make it unlikely that the general public would accept a newly minted hands-off policy.

Marika Pruska-Carroll

Marika Pruska-Carroll believes that there is a new pan-Slavic and anti-NATO sentiment emerging rapidly, a "Cold War warmed over". Tony Deutsch recounted his experience the previous week in Kiev where he had been invited to discuss pension reform. He was unable to present his conclusions to the minister responsible because the latter was engaged in the parliamentary debate on nuclear rearmament of the Ukraine.
Much concern was expressed about Canada's deviation from traditional roles of mediator and peace-keeper. Minister Axworthy has been unrestrained in his comments about President Milosevic, "saddamizing" him in highly committed language. This is, of course, always a danger when in the future one may have to sit down and negotiate. The Canadian press is becoming more critical of NATO's action every day.
A Macedonian perspective
The saturation coverage of the Serbian and Kosovar issues has overshadowed the potential problems in Macedonia where the population includes some 25% Albanians. The worst nightmare of Macedonia is Albanian independence. Albanian nationalism is a problem. The Albanian nation is distributed over several countries and has caused problems for more than just Albania itself. Furthermore, the Albanian people have a higher birthrate than the other communities in the region. The Kosovar Albanians rioted even when they enjoyed numerous privileges under the Constitution of '74 (which decentralized the country on the basis of differences). This was when Kosovo was empowered as a virtually autonomous province. The appearance of so many Kosovar Albanians in Macedonia, one of the newest countries to join the UN, is a great strain on a poor country. The influx of refugees is going to upset the country's already delicate ethnic balance.

Tito, left, with senior army officers watching war games in 1971.

(Editor's Note: the National Post Friday, March 26 The undoing of Tito's legacy by Alec Russell for an excellent recapitulation)

Stefan noted the documentary film "Nostradamus" in which Peter Ustinov starred had identified Kosovo as the origin of World War III. He also reminded us that Milosevic started his rise to power in '87 with a speech in Kosovo, but directed to Serbs, in which he promised that "nobody will ever beat, rape or kill you again". This was after 50 000 Serbs had fled Kosovo in 1980 following Tito's death.
On a more personal level, Misha said that he is enjoying William and Mary College a lot. Excellent students and good student - faculty ratios. His main class has 27 students who, from his account, are highly appreciative of the opportunity to study with him.
On behalf of all the Wednesday Night guests, Tony Deutsch thanked Misha for giving us an intensely personal and impassioned view of the current crisis including his own interaction with Milosevic while serving as Ambassador to the EEC, and framing his remarks in the necessary historical perspective.

Robert Ackermann

Notes by Robert Ackerman, Professor Gerald Ratzer and Diana Thébaud Nicholson
Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson
A further note from the Editor:

click for our paperboy

We have been given several suggestions regarding web sites for information on the Balkans crisis including the following from one of our Concordia students:
Serbian news and information: serbia-info.com
Timeline (history of Balkans): abcnews.go.com/
News from independent sources in/around Kosovo: www.kosovo.com
News, information and excellent links: monde-diplomatique.fr/
And from Stefan, the following:

..siri-us.com/ (the Strategic Issues Research Institute of the US)
..jbs.org/ (New American: KLA explained) )

www.albanian.com
Serbia Radio
helpB92 radio
Maps
Yugoslavia ABC news
First hand accpunts
Links to news
daily Serb state-run news
gov on Kosovo
Dr.Misha Letter home
Dr.Misha on Bosnia Yugoslavia
Dr. Mihailo Crnobrnja 'Could it happen here?'

I will be in Montreal May 15th but I very, very seriously repeat my offer: DO COME TO WILLIAMSBURG!" Mihailo Crnobrnja

The law and Mihailo

See our first Surround Pan of "la cucina" at 388 Victoria

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