This Wednesday-Night #893
The discussion holding the attention of the guests of the Wednesday Night Salon of April 14, related to several diverse enigmas, including:
- The economy
- The contradictions of an erratic stock market
- The gut-wrenching incongruity of the events in the Balkans.
However before turning to these somewhat distressing topics, there was a quick clip of Mark Russell's weekly comments on the follies of the world, followed by a warm welcome back to Marie Mandeville (recently away in Spain), Mac Mercer from a business/pleasure trip to Egypt and the Channel Isles, Claude Ramsay who has been absent for several months and who informed us that he has been organizing the commercial side of the Napoléon exhibition at the Stewart Museum (starting May 4th).
Hélène de Serres |
Claude Ramsay |
Claude also introduced his guest, Hélène de Serres, a reformed communications consultamt with expertise in training and motivation who has turned to a new career in writing and jewelry design.
THE ECONOMY:
The United States government continues to suffer from the gridlock of a Republican-controlled Congress and a Democratic White House. Opinion is so divided as to be incapable of agreeing on ways of spending the enormous accumulating surpluses.
Guy Stanley |
(The Federal budget expects a staggering $111 Billion surplus)
Not only will the entire U.S. deficit be paid off in the next twelve years, but the American government will actually be buyers of assets by the year 2012. It was noted that not only the American federal government, but also most of the individual states are in good shape.
Canada's position, although not as favourable, is good at the federal, but less so at the provincial level. Unfortunately, the culture among politicians, civil servants and the general population here, favours increased spending over tax reduction. Nonetheless, some individuals around the table feel that it is essential to get through to Minister of Finance Paul Martin and to make him understand the negative impact of our current tax structure on the brain drain and on productivity.
(Editor's Note: See the National Post editorial of Saturday, April 17: "Cut taxes - or the taxpayers will" underlining the findings of COMPAS that 85% of Canadians are unhappy with the taxes they pay.)
Dr. Judith Patterson |
The Canadian consumer price index no longer seems to reflect reality. The experts say that there is no inflation, but in the experience of Wednesday night consumers, representing a number of different buying patterns and lifestyles, everything is more expensive, food, heating, electricity, gasoline, clothing .... "There is a very limited number of standard items by which the C.P.I. is measured. It is a pattern of a fictional family leading a dull (and not very healthy!) life." This puts into question, the true level of inflation in Canada, not to mention the difinition of the poverty line.
THE STOCK MARKET:
Tony Deutsch |
The stock market is no longer a single market. Some stocks continue to rise, others to fall. In some areas, there is no movement. The net result is that the indices no longer reflect the direction in which the market is moving. Many investors experience the frustration of seeing their own portfolios not reflecting the gains indicated by the Dow Jones or T.S.E. indices. People (including Warren Buffet who says he won't buy a stock if he cannot understand the product) tend to invest more easily in companies with tangible products or services, such as Coke or G.M. It is a lot harder to know and hence invest in natural resources, a currently depressed segment. The Internet stocks are reminiscent of the tulip mania. Guests were reminded that they would be able to recount to their grandchildren, their witnessing of the great internet bubble. The technology sector is also a bubble. An example on the screen showed Ameritrade at 651 times earnings while Schwaab was at 178. Almost everything else is in decline, stock values being a function of earnings, present or anticipated.
Frank Kruzich |
Though retail sales through the internet appear to indicate a profit breakthrough, at the end of the day, competition will most likely dampen the profit picture in this area, leaving the service providers as the principal beneficiaries of this recent development.
Stock prices will continue to rise although the market seems to be fully priced at thirty-four times earnings. The bull market is destined to fall precipitously following an as yet unpredictable critical event. Such an event is most frequently but in this case, unlikely to be, the announcement of a rise in interest rates.
More on THE BALKANS:
Gerald Ratzer |
The bombing of Serbia and the plight of the Kosovars has the feeling of a cartoon war written by Disney. People in the NATO countries sit in a comfortable remote environment, treating the event lightly. One explanation of this phenomenon is that people tend to laugh when they are embarrassed or when they don't know how to deal with an issue.
Those who compare rather than contrast the genocide in Kosovo with that of the holocaust, are unaware of their differences, aside from the numbers of victims involved.
During World War II, the Allies were aware of the holocaust, but failed to take such elementary inhibiting actions as the bombing of rail lines leading to concentration camps, presumably favouring targets of supposedly greater strategic importance. In the case of Kosovo, NATO has acted in response to the genocide of a minority group.
There are those who, noting the failure of the west to intervene in Africa and Indonesia, allege that the motivation is related to economic expansion on the part of the United States, rather than humanitarian concerns. The truth of the matter is that it is the European partners in NATO who have insisted upon the current plan of action. If there is an economic as well as humanitarian motive in NATO's action, it is that the EU is emerging as an international monetary, political and economic force. The European Economic Community must remain competitive with the Americas in maintaining a peaceful economic zone.
David Oliver |
At this time, there is NO undisputed border between the boundary of the old Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Pacific ocean. If Europe is to remain economically competitive, border disputes and ethnic disputes must be contained. Self-interest has donned the mask of humanity, to the ultimate benefit of mankind.
(Editor's Note:
At last, a good war
Although you wouldn't hire these people to organize the
Teddy Bears' Picnic, you can say this much for NATO: It's
at least fighting an altruistic war, and one that may even
have some bearing on whether the rule of law prevails
internationally in the next century. Gwynne Dyer's lengthy piece in the Focus & Books section of Saturday's Globe & Mail is a Must Read on this topic. saved)
The implications are larger than they have been in the past. A new, better means of handling human rights and boundary disputes must be developed. When John Humphrey drafted the human rights charter, it was drafted in a North American context. It should be rewritten in a world-wide context, taking into account, the sometimes conflicting rights of individuals and the community in which they reside.
The position of China in the current conflict is interesting. China has felt a deep-seated hatred of the United States dating back to the Korean war. It is also involved in boundary disputes with Tibet and Taiwan. It is therefore not surprising that China opposes NATO's intervention in Yugoslavia.
China's background and lack of empathy for the western world's concept of human rights, tends to widen the gap.
And what of the future, when some solution to the conflict has been found? As Comrade Harry stated, inevitably there will be peace-keeping troops required, and of course the NATO allies are going to have to rebuild the country and the IFIs are going to have to help to rebuild the economies of Kosovo and surrounding nations. Meanwhile, as one guest queried:
"What good did it do to destroy the Yugo car factory (yes, I know it was used for military manufacture) but what are they going to do for cars now? Every time I hear of another bridge blown up, I think, we are bombing them back into the Stone Age".
To return to the levity with which the evening began, Diana recapped the recent international Environment/Conservation crisis in Washington as it had been relayed from the Washington Post by former Wednesday Nighter, Terry Jones:
Beaver Continues to Dine on Tidal Basin
By Linda Wheeler
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, April 8, 1999
The tree-toppling beaver of the Tidal Basin was still at large last night after felling four more trees. The timber toll now stands at nine since last Thursday, and National Park Service officials say they are looking for a humane way to try to trap the animal.
Ana |
Amy |
The beaver has downed four cherry trees and five white cedars and has gnawed deep valleys into four large cherry trees, most likely killing them, too, said Park Service spokesman Earle Kittleman.
"I think we are at the point of calling this animal a tree predator," he said last night. "He is one very evasive and wily creature."
The beaver, believed to be a male and working alone, has been alternately hitting several trees a night or doing no noticeable damage at all.
Although beavers frequent the Potomac River basin, no one can remember one living in the Tidal Basin until last year, when the first trees were damaged, Kittleman said.
The beaver-vs.-tree issue has the Park Service in a difficult position.
David Oliver |
The internationally recognized cherry tree grove is now at its annual peak, and the Park Service spends a great deal of money to protect the more than 3,000 flowering trees. However, it also is required to protect the animals of the park as well.
Park Service staff are convinced that a beaver, not a human, is the predator because the trees have been chewed, not chopped. And each of the felled trees had the telltale pointy stump, always an indication of beaver activity.
The Park Service plan, under discussion since Friday, is to obtain a humane trap, catch the beaver alive and then turn it loose in a new home, a long way from the cherry trees. As of last night, a suitable trap had not been found.
Kittleman said the Park Service has been overwhelmed with media attention about the beaver. Biology technician Julia Long, who is responsible for securing a trap, had a full slate of interviews yesterday, delaying her efforts to determine which trap is the most humane.
Long told Kittleman she had spotted the beaver swimming in the Tidal Basin yesterday.
Experts on beavers said this one is probably a 2-year-old that recently left the home nest and is checking out the Tidal Basin as a place to start a new colony...
"They raise a litter each year and keep the young at home for two years, so there are multiple generations living together". "They participate in activities together such as gathering food and building the dam. They do lots of learning as a family."
Dr. Judith Patterson |
...the Tidal Basin certainly is an attractive place for a beaver.
"There's lots of nice food right there, all those new cherry trees," he said.
...
So far, the Tidal Basin beaver has not been able to begin a dam because the Park Service crews swoop in as soon as a downed tree is found and take it away. They also chop the tree stump to the ground so visitors won't trip over it.
Kittleman said there would be no special precautions taken last night to protect the trees, because the beaver has about 300 acres to roam looking for an appealing tree and there is no way to patrol such a large area.
Notes by Herb Bercovitz and Diana Thébaud Nicholson
Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson
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