This is of course the challenge in organizing the opposition to the Bédard Report . Mayor Peter has promised to be with us to highlight the report's recommendations - yes, also the GOOD ideas (banishing the welcome tax!)- and to discuss the possibilities of coalescing the opposition.

As we understand the recommendations of the Report, - not having read it - they affect every aspect of our lives as citadins, including the administration of schools, hospitals and other services. This is an important issue. Please join us!

A reply

Guy & Dee

"Regarding the amalgamation, one of Mr. Peter Trent's arguments that caught my attention was that tax reform and amalgation are logically separate, the former providing positive solutions, the latter providing positive harm. I thought this to be an illuminating and powerful insight which seems to have escaped the proponents of amalgamation." Guy Stanley

Kudos, Comments and Introductions

Blue Metropolis

Linda Leith was congratulated for the success of the Blue Metropolis Festival; based on this year's experience, it is bound to become an annual event. Now, after four months dedicated to the Festival organisation, Linda will be concentrating on the launch of Blue Metropolis magazine. We at www.Wednesday-Night.com built a site page for Linda which has been put on hold?

Johanna Stosik

Brian Morel introduced Johanna Stosik, an established script writer and potential novelist who has returned to Montreal after a number of years in BC. Brian also spoke briefly about his forthcoming trip to St John's where he and Donald Patriquin will present their multimedia Titanic show in the Cathedral on May 15th.

Diana mentioned that today is the 32nd anniversary of the opening of Expo 67 and David said that he had recently met Robert Shaw, "The Builder of Expo" who is currently living at Chateau Westmount as he recovers from a broken hip. Bob Shaw would welcome visitors (afternoons are most convenient).

Several people commented favourably on the new format of last Wednesday's write-up, saying that they found the pro/con summary easy to digest and visually attractive.

Reprise of last week's Water topic

Peter F. Trent

A video clip suggesting that global warming is a happy event, bringing longer growing seasons, not 'violent' heating challenged some of last week's views and was challenged in turn. Mayor Peter pointed out that we have endured global cooling for thousands of years and this could be a swing of the pendulum albeit assisted by industrialization, increases in global population - and huge concentrations of population.

Certainly our activities have influenced global warming trends in a most disquieting fashion and the comments made in the clip represent a short-term and probably over-optimistic view. Allan noted that mild winters are bad for business in our climate. The effects are felt in the clothing, sports equipment, automobile sales and many other sectors as people decide that they don't need to replace the previous year's things.

A second clip postulates that hurricane season will be longer and more violent for several decades.
(Editor's Note: Was the Oklahoma tornado a precursor?)

The Economy, the stock market, Day traders and Québec

Peter Ferest & Tony Deutsch

Is the global economic crisis over? Tony Deutsch says that the dynamic of the meltdown is behind us and happily the IMF and the World Bank took the right corrective measures. However, the Euro is falling and there is high unemployment in Europe. The business cycle should turn down. Wars are bad for economies. But what about all of the reconstruction business that will follow?

Julius Grey: the high British pound is producing low growth.

Julius Grey

Germain Bourgeois is concerned that there is huge re-inflation going on with 15 stocks pulling the market higher and higher. The huge increases in stock prices of the Internet stocks continue (EBay may be the smallest Billion Dollar company in the world;TheGlobal.com went public at $6, early trades at $95…)





Germain predicts a correction soon - in a couple of weeks. Tony agrees that the market is over-priced.

Marc Brillon

Marc Brillon, as a value investor, quotes Alan Abelson "earnings, you jest", but feels that current situation is good for emerging markets. Corrections in the high tek stocks will be good, the Y2K factor at work; people may start to think again about underlying values.

Me Marie Cormier

Tony comments that Canadian statistics show no inflation, but, "everything I buy is more expensive than it used to be. Conclusion, the CPI doesn't match our lifestyle".

They usually do not know what they are doing and there could therefore be a bloodbath. This is almost an addiction, but the effects are to mess up the signals in the market; they are like rogue traders.

Day traders quit at 4 p.m. They look at trends. Some large firms encourage it, do not feel that it distorts the market. The issue is liquidity.

These individuals are a small percentage of the market, must meet certain criteria; interesting profile - generally individuals in 40's to 60's.

Some guests have greater problem with the full service brokers who don't really represent their individual clients' interests.

Tony Deutsch   Des Morton

The real problem, says Tony, is the people who believe that their stocks will go up and panic when they don't.

Germain discussed the new book Etatisme et le déclin du Québec. Since the Révolution tranquille, Québec has been lagging; the government has governed in response to pressure groups. Québec must change approach from social democracy.

Among the reactions:

• The author idealizes the pre-Révolution tranquille Québec . There was no education, rural populations had no future. Intervention is not étatisme. Québec has been an unmitigated success since the '60s, says Julius.
• Under Duplessis Québec had an excellent credit rating. The Révolution tranquille underwrote the education system AND spent a lot of money we didn't have, creating the debt situation (including Hydro) we face today. Now Bouchard says we cannot borrow any more, but there seems to be no intention to cut intelligently.
• The PQ government continues to subsidize jobs - and a high level of waste - rather than facilitating the investment which would create jobs (e.g. announcement of Landry's new subsidies for Ciné-Cité).
• The ratio of civil servants to programs administered in Québec versus Ontario is concrete example.

Robin Wohnsigl

Kosovo

(Note: Robin Wohnsigl knew this plane well, it was the 11th production plane delivered and he signed for it.)

Are significant negotiations possible? Milosevic must be convinced that there is nothing to be gained by continuing his present policy.

Mergers and the Mega-City

The Bédard Report constitutes "urbicide", penalizing well-run cities in favour of Montreal's questionable administration which the Report criticizes for not doing a good job. Minister Harel says this is a world-wide trend, but in this context, her models are European, not North American cities like Boston which has 111 municipalities in the metropolitan area. Mayor Bourque has said nothing and won't until the 26th of May. Peter agrees that it is too early to comment other than to say that the Bédard Commission should have stuck to their mandate, the fiscal issues, and not attempted to tamper with structural issues. Amalgamation is not being recommended as a fiscal solution.

Robin Wolnsig

The fundamental pressure for amalgamation comes from the bureaucrats in Québec City. There is a fixation on the number of cities and a total disregard for the studies showing a diseconomy of scale subsequent to amalgamation. Montreal municipal employees make 28% more than anyone else.

Québec is talking about a new level of government with direct election and taxation powers. Dr. Des is slightly more sympathetic towards the proposal, citing Carl Goldenberg's analysis. The TheBédard recommendations regarding salaries are draconian, not realistic. The size (area) of Montreal is right, but there is an intuitive feeling that there are too many municipalities. In this situation, certain injustices appear to be perfectly logical. The negative reaction of the "English communities" will be grist for the Québec mill, therefore opposition to the Report must be "strictement en français" and based on a strong alliance of many conflicting interests. It is essential that all of the opponents agree on what they can live with in terms of sacrificing their own pet theories.

Me. Allan Mass

Allan Mass suggests that this is a battle that cannot be won unless the opponents create a political price. The current situation could be corrected by taxation. Julius asks whether there has been any analysis of the costs of transition.

There was no dissent from the views expressed by His Worship. There is great concern that this campaign must be well conceived, endorsed by all the affected parties and waged on all fronts.

Thus endeth the Lesson of Wednesday Night April 28, 1999 Notes and Editing by Diana Thébaud Nicholson

Tuesday 27 April 1999 Confidence in Montreal It's almost as if the Quebec government can't stand prosperity. A report on Montreal's impressive economic recovery made the news last weekend but Premier Bouchard wasn't listening.

IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!

Prof. Tony Deutsch

A not very polite way to introduce this Wednesday's topic. Try as we might, there simply isn't any subject that has so many issues right now; the Dow tops 11,000 and nobody seems to care, the U.S. savings rate goes negative, Bank of Canada lowers interest rates, the Canadian dollar rises impressively, Real estate values continue to rise rapidly, StatsCan delays the preliminary report on productivity whose findings are expected to reveal deterioration in growth. And for Cabinet watchers, there is the squabble between Jean Chrétien and John Manley over the need to cut taxes. At least someone is talking about it!

the UNA Gala98 front page

Robin Wohnsigl & Peggy Daigle

Urban issues

Margaret Lefebvre

Montreal - Mega-city or not? do see #894 for more

amalgamation? Peter Trent getting legal

His Worship commented that it is strange that governments in general opposed to private monopolies Banks(e.g. the bank mergers) have no qualms about limiting the people's choice in this matter. Montreal does indeed have a problem: a high percentage of poor people, and high taxes that have caused the flight of the middle class to the suburbs. Let's deal with those problems by:

1. restoring the public transit subsidies removed by Claude Ryan;
2. Creating a tax on development beyond Montreal's borders;
3. Developing a method of tax base sharing.

From: George Archer

From: Leo Kolivakis
Sent: April 16, 1999 10:19 AM
To: Researchers
Subject: Japan and Asia

Here are two lengthy reports from Asian Business Watch which analyze the recent performance of the Japanese and Asian markets. These markets have been performing exceptionally well since the start of the year and many analysts argue that this is the beginning of a sustained recovery.

Please e-mail us for a copie

#894Water 896


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