Dr. Antal Deutsch Prof. Tony Deutsch PhD Ron Meisels states that at this point the Canadian market is the best buy because it is cheap in relation to what other markets have done. Our resource sector is undervalued; Alcan N-AL $33us & at $47cdn, .. CP $37, are among Ron's current recommendations. Please click for our charts and DTN's [short term] contrary conjecture. We should see a positive period between now and May. We may see a correction in mid-May and early June and then another leg up until August, at which time it may be a good idea to become a little defensive. Wednesday-Night #897
Dr. Andersen acts as a consulting economist for the Canadian Home Builders' Association and writes a column for Home Builder Magazine. He is also the author of a number of publications in professional journals. The Financial Post has frequently rated Dr. Andersen as Canada's most accurate economic forecaster.
Peter Andersen was down with a very bad cold so will come another night.
This was a most interesting and stimulating evening with Chil Heward speaking.
He also shared the good news received from the Wednesday-Night.com monitoring service. In a 36-page report (which was circulated), the service indicated that there had been over 18,000 hits in the first month that the site was renamed and hosted by Graham Fowler's Imageade. He noted that these hits were on only 9% of the total site. Reflecting the site's topicality, "Misha" on Kosovo was one of the major drawing cards. Terry Leventos of Interinvest was introduced and made welcome by Michael Judson.
At the moment, there appears little interest in a common North American currency, unless it is the U.S. dollar, controlled by Washington. It is unlikely that any U.S. politician will accept shared sovereignty over monetary policy with a country one- tenth its population.
Even today Canadian companies which buy their raw materials in the United States, and whose sales are world- wide, frequently price their goods and services in U.S. dollars. And, while Air Canada lost some $40 M on currency fluctuation last year; Robin's department managed to hedge considerably by invoicing and pricing in US dollars.
Whatever the answer, the situation is viewed as dangerous internally and damaging to the potential peace process in the Balkans.
While unemployment dropped from 7.2% to 4.5% on his watch, international policy was not his strong suit. Did Treasury turn over policy to the IMF, or did Treasury exercise great influence over the IMF? Larry Kudlow comments that Rubin "did not export the strong U.S. economy". In the view of Terry Leventos, the Asian crisis was brought on by U.S. policy designed to expand multinational market share in Asia. Tony Deutsch disagrees, pointing out that the Asians set up their own very volatile banking systems without any help. Chris Ragan agrees with Tony, "Asians are very competent in creating their own problems, e.g. fixed exchange rates. The IMF could be blamed for not intervening to change this policy".
On tax policy, the two men are not that different. ..on the dollar, they might be [new boy may soften but we think strong dollars are good for North America,.DTN]. ...The inflow of foreign capital has made it feasible to finance massive investments in information technology and related imports, despite the ecofact that the national savings rate since 1993 (16.3% of gross domestic product) has been lower than it was in 1983-89 (17.2%). In the process, interest rates dropped from 8% to as low as 5%, and the stock market soared. (Wall Street Journal)
The outlook is for a very high growth and low inflation in the United States. (David interjects that he anticipates a short term correction from dow 11,000 in the markets and advises caution.)
As the world economy heals, there is a fear that growth will be too rapid leading to long term interest rates of up to 6%. Interest rates of up to six percent would have no adverse affect on investment, however if they exceed six percent, there may be some outflow of capital.
On another note: an explanation for the drop in gold prices appears to be that the Bank of England hinted that they would divest themselves of some of their reserves. The consequent drop in prices saved the bacon of several major hedge funds which had gone massively short as gold prices rose.
Comparison of housing prices here with elsewhere, augers a booming market. Unlike other areas of the world, we have not as yet attained the 1989 price level in housing.
Rapidly rising commodity prices are accelerating the growth.
Construction, the backbone of Ontario is accelerating.
We can anticipate a drop in short term interest rates of twenty-five to fifty basis points. Personal spending is up and income tax cuts are anticipated. Capital spending plans are being revised upwards. Revised gross national product figures indicate a 3.5% increase, with indications that it will grow at an even faster rate next year. With this favourable outlook, as an investment, Canada is cheap.
Peter Andersen's charts have never been better! As of today, Chil is concentrating on Canada.
At a local level, Chil cited the truck traffic on the highway between Montreal and Brockville. Also, the recent sale of the old Café Martin property on Mountain for $900 000; this is just up the street from the larger building Heward Investment bought two years ago for $300 000!
- If all the prices are going up, how do we avoid inflation? Tony reminds us that we have had this discussion before and mentions that his contractor keeps telling him that materials cost more. And answer was there none. Unless one consults The Andersen Monthly Economic Report and reads "There will be …significant offsets to rising energy pices, e.g. declining computer prices and telephone costs, the cost and price impact of a rising C$." Tony, does this help your contractor?
Overseas investment is improving and outsiders do know how to overcome the petty annoyances such as language laws. However, in the opinion of at least one foreign observer, Québec is not growing as fast as the rest of the country, leading to an investment and people drain towards the U.S. The improvement is fragile, concentrated in Montreal. The threat of separation does not appear to be over but more likely in abeyance - with no ratchet effect - for possibly 10 years which, he notes, is a long time in business. Some inflation and an increase in the value of the Canadian dollar would be viewed positively.
Mr. Bouchard is riding the crest of a rising economy and while he must keep the militants happy, with improving prosperity in Québec, separation sentiment seems to have peaked (piqued?) in '95 and is now relegated to the back burner. However, Jean Charest persists in saying that we must prepare for the Referendum - what is the strategy? Especially when the QLP is not talking about the benefits of being part of Canada, nor about alternative approaches to divisions of powers. Seventy percent of Québecois oppose another Referendum, but things will always be done here somewhat differently. We will not return to the 50's; we will maintain the roles of such organisations as the Caisse, Fonds de Solidarité and SGF. Creative policy could and should be shaped by these unique features of the economy and our society.
With all the good news, it was nonetheless noted that there is not one senior Royal Bank executive left in Montreal - all have moved to Toronto.
Reed Scowen added a special word of thanks to Marcus Hope for his wonderful contributions to the discussion, urbanity, wisdom and ability to meld into this complicated group with its somewhat quirky and autocratic Chair.
Several people commented favourably on the new format of last Wednesday's write-up, saying that they found the pro/con summary easy to digest and visually attractive.
the UNA Gala98 front page
Montreal - Mega-city or not? do see #894 for more
Quintessential abilities shine at Basilica 5/17/99 By Jane Gosine Special to The Telegram
On Saturday night the Quintessential Vocal Ensemble, directed by Susan Quinn, invited the audience at the Basilica to join them in a rite of passage which began with a tender evocation of the sea by Debussy and culminated with the world premiere of
Donald Patriquin's dramatic multi-media work, Requiem at Sea. This composition perpetuates the fascination with the ill-fated Titanic and is an incredibly powerful and moving work....
Which is why we had a night of no inter... from Brian Morel as he was in Newfounfland with Don puting this show.
© 1997 by David T. Nicholson
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Saturday, February 22, 2003 Gazette a story on C.F.G. Heward & You can't beat the market, Nobel laureate advises