 Nimi Potter |
 Simon Potter |
Wed908
#910
Tue Mar 21 2000 India insists on 'minimum nuclear deterrent' NEW DELHI - India's prime minister says his country will conduct no further tests of nuclear weapons, but it won't disarm.
Wednesday Night #909
August 4, 1999Wednesday 2 June 1999 Dangerous hostilities ..clash between India and Pakistan over Kashmir may be heating up India, the second most populous country on the planet, is a hotbed of child labour. India has an enormous export industry, flourishing because of cheap child labour. Boycotting companies that use these countries to manufacture their products can do more harm than good. These children can end up with harsher working conditions, receive less or no pay or lose their job, forcing them to resort to more desperate measures, such as prostitution. ???
The Invitation
Full Coverage India Pakistan Relations
909 India
Robin Wohnsigl VP Air Canada will be with us this
Robin Wohnsigl VP AC
Wednesday Night, August 4th, which may go down as the night of the S&Ps, no not Standard and Poors ...Steve Poloz possibly for the last time for a while as he is leaving Bank Credit Analyst to take up the position of Chief Economist for Canada's Export Development Corporation, in Ottawa. He says "It was one of those opportunities that I could not pass up". And Simon Potter will be back, perhaps with an important political announcement.
Steve Poloz & Tulsi Nowlakha Mirchandaney
INDIA was a major topic with Tulsi Nowlakha Mirchandaney, Senior Vice President, Blue Dart Express Ltd. "Tulsi" is currently completing her last term in the Concordia Aviation MBA Program, and is an air cargo specialist whose company is a Global Service Partner of Federal Express.
As we all know from previous Wednesday-Night discussions, air cargo is a leading indicator of international trade patterns and with Tulsi, Simon and Steve, we can expect a knowledgeable discussion of the outlook for the Indian economy and that of Southeast Asia in general.
The US needs Water! Sell water south and find a way to reverse the flow of our talent. Drought in the U.S. may well put greater pressure on Canada to sell water - but will that keep our young here? Perhaps, if we could pay off our debt and lower taxes....(That's David speaking, endorsing one of Gerald Ratzer's theories. Not all of us agree.)
Tulsi Nowlakha MirchandaneyWednesday Night #909
The evening's topic was advertised as India with a subtext of the "Night of the S & Ps", however, as is often the case, there were surprises in the guest list and in the topics.As mentioned in the invitation , Tulsi Nowlakha Mirchandaney from the Concordia International Aviation MBA program joined us.
Warren Allmand, Ashok Chandwani & George CavadiasNew guest, but a most familiar face to readers of the Gazette, was Ashok Chandwani who proved to be, not surprisingly, an articulate and erudite contributor to most of the subjects under discussion.
YUGOSLAVIA
Our resident expert on Yugoslavia, recently returned from a trip to his homeland, presented, as usual, a concise and prescient view of the state of that part of the world.Despite the devastating NATO bombardment, the level of physical destruction appears to be relatively low. Targets as small as specific wings of buildings, were hit accurately, destroying military and political targets and infrastructure, leaving the remainder relatively intact.
The citizens have been devastated and are concerned about their future. Milosevic has been considerably weakened, but to no one's benefit, because Serbian opposition is so fragmented that no one is able to mount a successful campaign against him.
The opposition supported Milosevic's actions in Kosovo (for ethno-historic reasons) and therefore cannot now attack him on his handling of the war. Furthermore, as television is controlled by Milosevic and newspaper readership is low, whatever news and interpretation the public receives is generated by the government. At the moment, he is in decline, but no one is prepared to predict when his régime will collapse.
With the anti-Milosevic forces in a state of disorganization, civil war will break out only if the citizens rise up spontaneously in sufficient numbers and sufficiently widespread, and security forces loyal to Milosevic are insufficient in number to deal with it. This would lead to calling in the army which is divided in its loyalty.
The population is not pleased with the NATO initiative. In their eyes, the United States is the principal Satan, followed closely by Great Britain, Germany and France, conspiring towards a greater Albania. Italy, Greece and Canada are perceived as having been dragged in reluctantly. With the obvious devastation and poor economy, however there is no choice but to co-operate.
Fr. David OliverKosovo will continue to be a protectorate for at least another decade. NATO is undermanned and the KLA is still fighting a guerilla war against Kosovar Serbs. Unfortunately, the KLA - a radical and fascist group in the Kosovar resistance movement - was supported by the United States, primarily because it constituted the only organized resistance.
There is some talk in the press of pro-Western Montenegro splitting off from Yugoslavia, but this is hardly likely because of the small population (600,000) and the two factions (the Green and the White) who have been fighting with each other since World War II. However, if Serbia were to democratize, Montenegro would confederate. Milosevic hopes for a civil war in Montenegro but will not attack. He does not recognize President Djukanovic because he might well institute impeachment proceedings against him.
Editor's note: On Thursday the 5th, Montenegro proposed a series of radical changes that would dissolve Yugoslavia into a loose association of two states and open the way for Montenegran independence. See The Gazette, Friday August 6th: "Montenegrins move to loosen ties to Serbia".
****************** India
click for Simon Potter Diana Nicholson Nimi PotterThe topic was introduced by video clips featuring Josh Freed's film "Coat of many countries".
India is a vast, diverse, stable, democratic country with improving economic conditions, tempered only by the continuing rapidly increasing population which puts a strain on and threatens to overburden the country's infrastructure. The current policy of committing large budgets to Defense rather than to education and planned parenthood programs is harming the country's future.
With a population of over a billion, more than seventy-nine percent of whom are Hindus, sixteen hundred dialects, eighteen official languages, people living in abject poverty cheek by jowl with others in extreme wealth, the success achieved by a democratic India is remarkable. "What's amazing is how much works". [Buddhists are a mere 0.7 per cent. The breakdown according to the CIA factbook is: Hindu 80%, Muslim 14%, Christian 2.4%, Sikh 2%, Buddhist 0.7%, Jains 0.5%, other 0.4%
Nimi PotterCIA Factbook on India
Thanks to Ashok Chandwani for correcting our factsIn recent years, the economy has shifted from dependence on the export of resources to the manufacture and export of value-added commodities including gems, jewelry, clothing, software, high precision engineering goods, electronics. Trains and planes arrive and leave on time, and the country runs amazingly well.
The strength of India is a strong democratic tradition - even if in a political sense democracy is a new construct - binding together a huge vastly diverse population. Its main weakness is the inability of this diverse population to arrive at a consensus. What keeps it going is education. India has the largest middle class (defined by purchasing parity) in the world and it is this educated middle class who believes deeply in democracy.
There is a growing common sense of belonging and a common horizon which probably held this country together following the departure of the British. This sense of belonging was evident recently when private rescuers came to the aid of earthquake victims well ahead of government assistance, much in the same manner as occurred in Canada during the Manitoba and Québec floods. Was Ghandi the father or the product of the gentle democratic tradition evident in today's India? In fact, there is a long history of tolerance of diverse religious beliefs and the philosophy espoused by some 730 million Hindus is at the root of the cohesion of today's India.
THE ECONOMY
Steve Poloz shared his views on the economy, notably that Asia is recovering faster than expected (with the exception of China) and this is affecting both Japan and Europe. The theme over the next couple of years will be convergence. Will China invade Taiwan, or is the current threatening stance simply for public consumption? The consensus appears to be No.
On the economy, there is short-term concern and medium term confidence. The rise in interest rates in the United States had been anticipated and had little lasting effect on the market. The price of oil is of some concern and will likely remain above the $20 level for some time. The impact of increased prices for oil will be felt throughout the economy - remember that a 1 cent increase in the price means a $20M increase in Air Canada's costs.
The Canadian dollar is on the rise because of rising commodity prices. Opportunities exist for the prudent, knowledgeable investor. Read about our Dollar Aug 99 or "Canadians expect loonie to disappear " Joint currency within 20 years, most say The Globe!
There will likely be a nervous period in the market for the next six months, so watch your back, but beyond that there's blue sky.
THE CABINET SHUFFLE
Jean Chrétien's cabinet shuffle, with the removal of 5 faces and the addition of 5 new ones, is a clear indication that he is in control. Through it, Mr. Chrétien has issued a clear signal that he will lead the party right up to the pre-election period, whether or not he chooses to run again. The changes are variously viewed as important or shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic, but defintely as a rebuff of the pro-Martin forces. The new appointments were generally applauded, David Anderson in Environment, Elinor Caplan replacing Lucienne Robillard in Citizenship and Immigration and Jane Stewart as Minister of Human Resources Development. Maria Minna is expected to be an effective voice for responsive social policies in the foreign aid portfolio.SIMON POTTER
Simon informed us that he is stepping down as President of the Federal Liberal Riding Association. Elections are to be held on September 16th. There are several candidates including Louise Coté Boyne.
Simpon Potter leaves LR
Simon then addressed questions sent by Guy Stanley who could not be present.
- On World Trade Organization rulings, Simon points out that the four or five cases Guy Stanley referred to have not yet been decided by WTO, but in any event, Canada's "losing" of certain decisions can be good. The "split-run" and dairy products decisions are in this category. (In this judgement of "losses" really being wins, Guy concurs, particularly with reference to the Auto Pact.)
- On the right to advertise tobacco products, it is wrong to ban advertising as long as the product is legal.
- Export of Water: The IJC (International Joint Commission) has been working on the legal issues stemming from the fact that water is not a commercial good - as it doesn't belong to anyone, who has the right to sell it?
Any policy must first take into account where the large bodies of water are located and how it is distributed. The drainage basins mainly flow North. Wholesale export of water would upset the ecology and availability of hydro power for Canadian use (and resale). There simply isn't that much water in the southern part of the country. The population around the Great Lakes is not that stable. Climate change also poses a new problem of unpredictability of quantities, especially under extreme conditions of drought/flood as we are seeing now in the U.S. (Editor's Note: See article below) Is it conceivable that, if export were sanctioned, the tap could be turned off? Yes, but it wouldn't be easy.
MUNICIPAL AFFAIRS
Mayor Bourque's strategy aimed at co-opting certain citizens on behalf of his Une ile Une Ville does not appear to be destined for success. The announcement in La Presse that Mayor Bourque would attend a Wednesday Night in order to debate Mayor Peter Trent has proven to be a faux pas. The Nicholsons were not consulted and did not confirm that Peter Trent would participate in such an event - if it were to happen.
They have received one of the 350-400 [one report had it over 1000] letters asking "influential persons" to participate in the consultative process, however in view of the recent approvals of controversial development plans in Montreal, it is not likely that participation by opponents of the scheme would be fruitful... but good debate often has value.
Notes by Herbert Bercovitz
Herbert Bercovitz
Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson
CLIMATE CHANGE BURNING PARTS OF THE U.S.
The greenhouse gas emissions being put up by the oil and gas industries and the coal fired electricity plants are beginning to sear the United States and Canada. In the Northeastern United States the land is sweltering under one of the worst droughts in decades, and relief is nowhere in sight. Federal weather forecasters warn that climate change related weather patterns have sent floods to the Northwest and Southwest while parching the East may last through the winter, with rain coming to drought stricken areas only as part of an unusually violent hurricane season.The last time the Northeast had a drought this severe and widespread was in 1988. Experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) say this may be one of the three worst droughts in the U.S. in the past 50 years. In Northern Virginia, the weather has not been this dry since the 1930s. In Maryland yesterday, where the drought is the worst in 30 years, Governor Parris Glendening declared the state's first ever statewide drought emergency.
In June and July, New York City has gotten only 14 percent of its normal rain. Providence, Rhode Island has had 17 percent, Buffalo, New York, only 45 percent, and Portland, Maine 41%. The U.S. Geological Survey's Drought Watch has daily updates of stream flow maps online at the website http://water.usgs.gov/ Source, WASHINGTON, DC, July 30, 1999 Environment News Service (ENS) 1999.
David and Diana Nicholson
The Canada Survey published by The Economist (July 24th issue) notes the following:
"... it seems only natural that the flow of goods turned on by NAFTA should be accompanied by a flow of people... from north to south, given the size and energy of America's economy compared with Canada's. This southward flow has been eased by changes in U.S. immigration law after the signing of the FTA and NAFTA; thanks to the establishment of a new temporary worker status (TN-1), an employer no longer has to prove that giving a job to a Canadian worker will have no adverse effect on American workers. A Canadian worker can present himself and his paperwork at the border and be granted TN-1 status within the hour. This status, valid for a year, can be renewed indefinitely...."
Forking out
The Economist.. At a conference in Brussels on rebuilding Kosovo, more than 100 governments and aid organisations were asked to give emergency help. The World Bank said that nearly $1.5 billion would be needed. In fact, over $2 billion was pledged. At another meeting on July 30th in Sarajevo, Bosnia’s capital, western governments were set to discuss a “stability” package for all of the Balkans, minus Serbia.In Kosovo, 14 Serb farmers were murdered, probably by vengeful Albanians, in a village near Pristina, the capital. Unless the NATO-led peacekeeping force manages to protect the dwindling number of Serbs still in the province, it is likely that few will remain.
Wed #908 Jul 28/99
Chil Heward
"The world is healing" ... Jacques and Chil Clément & Heward Markets, economy is booming but Fed may return negative Aug. 24 Marie-Hélène Sarrazin new post Lyda Letacq, Me Marie Cormier, Dame Margaret Lefebvre and MATTHEW BARRETT See ours on BanksJuly 21, #907 Concordia Me Rita de Santis & Jean-Marcel de Magistris, Elizabeth (Liz) Charles, Janet Wilgus USIA, a Russian freight forwarder Herman Karporov now completing AMBA, Stockbroker Howard Kaplow, Andrew Cross, Michael Judson cdn$ down, George Cavadias, Lucy Kroha Ph.D., Freedom of Speech Sex Dr. Judith Patterson , harassment Jean Pierre Bertrand , Governor of a University job? see story by Rene Simard rector UofM and ours on Universities in Montreal and Joe Pegna, a mechanical engineering prof Gazette story
Me Rita de Santis
Wed #906 Brazil July 14, 1999 João Carlos & Lala Spiller Simon's family, a song Robert Stewart, Guy Stanley & Gerald Ratzer "Brazil is a serious buy"
Thank you to Andrew de Courcy-Ireland for the comments in theStk Forecasts page
or Stk forecast Banks
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Wed #906 Brazil July 14, 1999 João Carlos & Lala Spiller Simon's family, a song Robert Stewart, Guy Stanley & Gerald Ratzer "Brazil is a serious buy"
Read about Reed Scowen's new book Time to Say Goodbye, Tommy Schnurmacher
Reed Scowen
see also Dr. Vithal Rajan | Wed1127 | Wed1127 | Wed986 | Wed812 | Wed986 | India news
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