THE INVITATION
Dear Friends of Wednesday Night,
David and Diana are off in Europe for a short visit. The lot has fallen on
me to host the evenings in their absence (2 weeks away, one week as
jet-lagged guests - but not hosting).
Wednesday evenings normally have video input from David, plus his
inimitable manner of prodding and needling to get the most interesting
responses out of all of us. In the absence of some 900 evenings of chairing
this event, I will not bring the same style or the experience to the
evening.
You have a choice: wait until David and Diana return (understandable but
...) or come and make these next evenings something special by your
presence and contribution. (Much better!!)
The speech from the Throne raises the usual questions: it is just
pre-election propoganda, is there a real desire to help parents and
children? And some new ones: did the new Governor-General seem to relish
her lines? Will this new vice-regal couple provide a frisson of scandal by
allowing themselves to continue to both think and speak critically?
The Economy - a watching brief as always. Come and hear the lastest
arguments from the Bears and the Bulls.
Bring a bottle and a friend or two, and we will have a great evening.
David Oliver
The Rev'd Canon David Oliver
for David and Diana Nicholson
THE SALON
919
With David and Diana on a brief trip the October 13 1999 Nicholson salon was moderated by the Reverend Canon David Oliver.
The government of Canada continues to produce budgetary surpluses as it continues to pay down the debt that had its origins in the Trudeau era, compounded during the Mulroney mandate. The citizens of Canada now look for the manner in which the back to back surpluses can best benefit Canadians. On this point there was little consensus. The recently appointed Governor General gave some hint as to which direction the government would move. Much support was expressed for the government’s plan to extend maternity benefits. Financial support for mothers enables them to provide a favourable start for the next generation. After the United States, Canada has the highest rate of child poverty in the developed world, with one-fifth of children living below the poverty line. There is some reservation about how far the proposed measures will go to improve the situation without simultaneous support for education, the attraction of a larger number of trained paediatricians. Another factor is the relatively high divorce rate. Is the growing number of single mothers a factor in child poverty? Although worthy of support, the proposed initiative of the federal government appears somewhat disappointing in scope.
The Wednesday night guests were pleased to offer to help Canada spend its surplus by proposing several measures. Oddly enough, tax reduction was rather low on the list of most guests.
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Increased funding for social programs
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Invest it all in high technology - our future.
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The environment
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Education tax rebate
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Distribution to provincial governments based on population and rate of unemployment
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Pay down debt. As the debt recedes, we regain our AAA rating, reducing servicing costs
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Pay off debt when times are good, lower taxes and borrow when times are bad.
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Tax credit to mothers
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Small business loans
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Restructure the entire tax system and social safety net, eliminating means tests
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New home subsidies. Home ownership instills pride in a family.
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Reduce taxes, including the GST. Stem the brain drain. Follow Britain’s post-war example. The effective tax rate in Canada is over 70%, concealing the opportunity costs of investment disincentives..
With a bare ten billion dollars to spend, one must reflect on how far the surplus would go to satisfy the wish list of the dozen guests around the Wednesday Night table.
The Economy
There has been about a a ten percent correction the market, but year’s end should see a 13% to 15% increase for the year.
The U.S. trade deficit is up to a record 25 billion dollars for the year. The third quarter will rebound after a weak second quarter. Only the housing sector is weak. Unemployment is down, car sales up, strong income and consumption numbers in the United States. Basically, the stock market is weaker in anticipation of a November 5 interest rate increase, the last opportunity to do so before 2000. The U.S. market is strong.
There is no real inflation pressure in Canada.. The consumer price index will rise a manageable 2.5%, and wages 3% to 3.5%, as well as a budgetary surplus of fifteen billion dollars. Canada is outpacing the Americans with a 4% growth rate in the second half of the year. Inflation is at a low 2.1% so far. Strength is coming from all sectors. Unemployment is down to a five year low. The only weak point is sales of existing homes.
There was a trade surplus in July of over three billion dollars leading to the anticipation of the current account deficit turning into a surplus in the third quarter.
The Canadian dollar is rising. Mortgage rates will probably increase in the near future. The stock market is cheap.
Unemployment figures are deceptively high as unemployed people return to the work force after a prolonged absence.
The main problem remaining for the Canadian economy is that productivity is not increasing to keep pace with the Americans. We are not preparing our young people for available jobs and are losing our talent to the United States.
UnEdited Notes by Herbert Bercovitz
Notes
John Bowring
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Re: Wednesday 919
David, would love to support you in this ecumenical role, but to-
morrow we have a dinner guest and next week I shall be in Hungary.
Let me send a cheery pax vobiscum to the assembled. Tony D.
Date: Thu, 14 Oct 1999
Subject: Re: Wednesday Night October 13, 1999 #919
Sorry that this is the period of McGill's millennial lectures, "Ape
or Angel ", on which doubtless you have privileged information
comparable to the visiting orators from the US and UK. However, as a
sponsor, I am obliged to be present and look interested.
Desmond Morton
Dear D&D,
Having a Canon as a moderator should be a blast !!
We have theater tickets for tomorrow night, but will try to drop in after the show.
Ron P.S. Have a great trip
Dr. Norbert Gilmore
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From: Norbert Gilmore
Subject: Re: Wednesday Night October 13, 1999 #919
To: "D.T. Nicholson"
Organization: McGill University - Faculty of Law
Hello, I am writing to inform you that Dr. Gilmore, while recovering
well, has had an accident this past Saturday, and is currently in
Room 1235 of the Montreal General. He has asked me to respond
to his emails and let people know that he will not be in his office for
some time (he fell 10 feet down an elevator shaft and has suffered
hip and leg injuries). He is taking calls and visitors. If there is
anything further I can do, feel free to give me a call (I am his
secretary at McGill) at 398-7400 or 398-2380.
(Editor's note Oct. 29th: Nobby is now at home and in good spirits, but will be in a wheelchair for at least six weeks. He welcomes friendly phone calls and will soon be connected to his email)
Libby Parker
HOW TO SURVIVE A HEART ATTACK WHEN ALONE in our medical file.
9/13/99 WATER News
IJC TO HOLD PUBLIC HEARINGS ON GREAT LAKES
WATER EXPORTS
The International Joint Commission (IJC) will hold public hearings
regarding the "Uses, Diversions, and Bulk Exports of Great Lakes
Water". The IJC will hold public hearings in Ottawa, Washington
and 10 cities in the Great Lakes basin in September and October of
1999 to solicit public and official comment on the interim recommendations
contained in its interim report, "Protection of the Waters of the Great
Lakes," that was released on August 18, 1999. Private citizens, members
of advocacy groups, representatives of industry, and federal, state, and
provincial government officials will have an opportunity to express their views on the report and to suggest to the IJC improvements to the report and its recommendations for inclusion in the final report. Written comment may be submitted at the public hearings, or to the following IJC offices. see our Wed 911 on Water
To the Secretary, Canadian Section,
100 Metcalfe Street, 18th Floor,
Ottawa, Ontario K1P 5M1,
Fax 613.993.5583, Email Commission@ottawa.ijc.org
Or to the Secretary, United States Section,
1250 23rd Street NW, Suite 100,
Washington, DC 20440, Fax 202.736.9015, Email Commission@washington.ijc.org
With thanks to Gary Gallon, editor of the Gallon Newsletter
918
next week 920
Notes by Herbert Bercovitz
Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson
our Medical Web ..Super Hospital