the UK In Depth 2002 back to 1998

THE INVITATION

Wednesday Night Salon # 930
Yes, yes, of course the doors are open on this, the last Wednesday of the 1990s - the last Wednesday of the 20th century. So, please join us for a look back - or forward - maybe even sideways!

To all our friends, new and old, we extend our warmest greetings and voeux les plus sincères for a wonderful season, embracing Christmas, Chanukah, the Winter Solstice, Rammadan and even the Pop Apocalypse.

With a certain sadness, we recognize that this is the last time that we write 1999 in connection with a Wednesday Night. The 19's have been good to Wednesday Night, bringing us many new faces who have become friends, many good topics and many discussions which have opened our eyes to preoccupations and issues that transcend borders. For this, we thank YOU!

The 19's have been good to many of us personally and probably no better - or worse - than any other century, except for the amazing leaps in technology that permit us all to keep in touch with family, friends and associates around the world. For that we should be truly thankful.

NOW what we would wish for is that ALL those people we cherish and whose friendship we value could be together in one place so that we might enjoy you often and share you with all the others. Maybe in the new Millennium there will be a technology that allows us to "beam you all up"....

In the meantime, this will have to suffice as an expression of our abiding affection and warmest wishes for a truly happy Millennium Christmas Season.

May the Two Thousands bring you much health, "comfort and joy", and may we often see you "beamed up" to 33 Rosemount on a Wednesday-Night.

Soyez toujours les bienvenus au 33 Rosemount et partagez avec les votres nos meilleurs voeux de santé, de bonheur et de joie.

David and Diana Nicholson

Wed929fun.htm /Wed931-2000

Shortcut to CBC News - Indepth Year in Review 1999

Kirby Brackstone & Isabelle Ramsay

The Salon, #930

December 29, The Last Wednesday-Night of 1999 - and of the 1900s

The loyal band of Wednesday Night Regulars was joined by WN Irregulars, Marc Nicholson, and Jean Low from London (Eng), Isabelle Ramsay Brackstone and Kirby Brackstone from Toronto.

Predictions for the year 2000 and Beyond:

[Editor's Note:
It has been suggested that over the course of the next few weeks, all those interested - and with something to add, or dispute - bring their predictions regarding their special fields of interest or expertise to the Wednesday-Night table, or write them to the web site. The Nicholsons and their faithful amanuenses will edit to avoid replication, attribute and generally keep track of what was said by whom.]

At his request, Diana Nicholson read into the Record Ron Meisels's predictions dated November 12 1993 wherein he "declared that the Dow Industrials will touch 7000 on January 14, 1996 at 11:31 a.m.". On the date of the prediction, the close was 3684.51.

Appended to that bold prediction was a list of others that had materialized or were yet to come:

• Mr. Mulroney's resignation
• Mr. Chrétien will form a majority government
• Meech Lake will fail
• Free Trade will pass
• NAFTA will pass
• The worst of the recession is yet to come
• Québec will not separate.
• The sun will rise again ... somewhere

He did not mention the depression that he called for

The Toronto Stock Exchange

On January 1, 1995, Market Maven Ron Meisels coined the phrase "10,000 in 2000". When asked at that time, whether his prediction held true for the TSE as well as for the Dow, Ron replied in the affirmative. It is obvious that the Dow has attained and exceeded the 10,000 level ahead of schedule, but what of the TSE? Ron sticks by his original prediction, 10,000 in 2000 for the TSE.

How will the bubble burst?

Gerald Ratzer

In 1929, the market crashed because of a low (10%) margin requirement and leverage. The next crash will undoubtedly happen some time in the next millennium and will most probably be triggered by injudicious day traders.

The economic fallout of recent environmental disasters in Europe and Venezuela:

Curiously, natural disasters have a stimulating effect on Gross Domestic Product, because of the required rebuilding and repair. This will be the case in Europe, but not in Venezuela, where the areas affected are largely populated by people living outside the money economy, and thus costs will be incurred without compensating economic stimulation.

Unfortunately, the wealth derived from the exploitation of Venezuelan oil wells does not filter down to the people. (The figure suggested was 80% of the population living outside the money economy.)

The extraction of oil once the wells are dug, is not a labour-intensive activity; the proceeds from the sale of oil are mostly exported and benefit only a tiny proportion of Venezuelan citizens. As politicians are unlikely to change the system which elected them, this will only change if and when the electors become vociferous and insist on change, using whatever means necessary. It is not a matter of being unethical, it is a matter of who does what. The government is supposed to collect taxes and apply the proceeds to the benefit of the people. The political climate in Venezuela perpetuates sweetheart deals. The political mechanism doesn`t work well.

The Asian economy:

Two MBAs

Within ten years there is a high probability that the Asian middle class who will number five hundred million people wanting to emulate North Americans, may very well compete with the West in establishing their own Asian commonwealth with their own common market and sphere of influence. The probability of this prediction is tempered by our incomplete familiarity with China as an unequally developing country with many problems. In China, there are very affluent, modern urban areas flourishing cheek by jowl with cities still existing in an eighteenth century environment. Uncertainty is also the result of imminent devaluation of the Chinese currency. China has always lived on the fact that it provides cheap labour, whereas Japan ran out of cheap labour ten years ago.

The Future of Medicare in Canada

Privatization will be creeping into Medical services, probably on the British model. This will be a slow and subtle process, not completed until both the provincial Parti Québecois and federal Liberals are replaced. See Monique Begin story.

Quote of the Evening

• "National income is not necessarily a measure of wealth; it is a measure of activity."
• e-Commerce has speeded our recovery and will really take off in the near future.

Notes by Herbert Bercovitz, Sculptor
Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson

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Wed929fun.htm Wed931-2000

Have you noticed that Wednesday-Night did not worry about Y2K compliance? We will have to begin worrying about Y1K, but not for a year and a half...

CONGRATULATIONS to us all; we have survived Y2K and what a marvelous round-the-world celebration it was! The National Post cover photo was quite wonderful - let us hope it is a Dawn of a New Age, even though we are too wise (or too cynical) to think for a moment that a change in calendar will bring an immediate change in human nature. Pity....

Nonetheless, there is hope. What an end to 1999 with the freeing of the hostages and the resignation of Boris Yeltsin. Portents? Perhaps

It has been suggested that over the course of the next few weeks, all those interested - and with something to add, or dispute - bring their predictions regarding their special fields of interest or expertise to the Wednesday-Night table, or write them to the web site. The Nicholsons and their faithful amanuenses will edit to avoid replication, attribute and generally keep track of what was said by whom.

Jacques Clément will be with us this week and many others returning from far-flung holidays or over-indulgence in fatted calves.

David and Diana Nicholson

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