Wednesday Night Salon # 946
April 19, 2000
INTRODUCTION
Editor's note: One of the great joys of Wednesday Nights is the diversity of opinions expressed by our guests. One of my great pleasures, as the official convenor, is the infrequent reactions to the Wednesday Night invitations into which, I sometimes inadvertently introduce a mild note of contraversy.
One subject mentioned in the invitation for Salon #946 which was not addressed during the evening was the Prime Minister's trip to the Middle East. It did, however, elict the following comments indicating, once again, the range of strongly held opinions among Wednesday Nighters.
From Emil Fattal:
"Concerning our Prime Minister, I beg to differ. The worst thing the PM did was to back track.
He should have merely stated that Canada's tradition of neutrality is well established. However, Canada has opinions on the relevant issues. It is natural for the PM of Canada, after listening to his hosts, to express his opinion on the issues that are raised. In fact, this could be quite constructive as it lets the chagrined side understand that their Candian friends do not agree with their position."
Do the PM's detractors really feel that our PM should have no opinion?"
And from the irrespresible
Tony Deutsch:
"The really bad news is not that we have to restore our reputation by
keeping J.C. away from the Holy Land, but by paying off with aid
packages all those who have been insulted."
Thank you both. Would that more of our Rectangular Table responded in similar fashion!
Diana
JOHN JONAS, PH.D., OC and now OQ
The evening opened with warmest congratulations offered to
Dr.John Jonas on his receipt of the prestigious
Killam Prize and, in the same week, the
Order of Québec. A third honour is being accorded to John this summer when 75 of the best and brightest of his students will come to Montréal and present a symposium on the subjects in which he has inspired them to excel. David also noted that John and Holly's daughter,
Jennifer, as Assistant Director of "The Red Violin" enjoyed the Oscar for best original musical score - even if the award did go to the composer, an American! And, not to be outdone, Holly's book will be coming out this year. See also
Jennifer Jonas page on the Perfect Son
JEAN-PIERRE BERTRAND
A second guest was congratulated,- although it is sad news for Wednesday Night -, on his selection by AECL for an important post at Chalk River. It is a new career for
Jean-Pierre who completed his MBA in Property Management earlier this year, following a distinguished career in hospital administration. We can only hope that
Jean-Pierre will find good reasons to return to Montreal often - and arrange all his business trips so that he is here on Wednesday Nights. We will indeed miss his many thoughtful contributions to the discussions.
ELIAN (Editor's note:Interesting, he's now such a media star, it is no longer necessary to use his last name)
One guest, recently returned from Cuba, mentioned that this is also a very political issue in Cuba where a number of (organized?) demonstrations have taken place. He also expressed his amazement at the support for Castro in that country. Several cynics suggested that either nobody who meets with foreign tourists would openly criticize Castro, or that the people tourists meet are hardly representative of the activist or intellectual members of the population.
A sampling of comments around the table:
- The Roman Catholic bishop of Florida has taken the side of Elian's Florida relatives, contrary to doctrines of the sanctity of the family.
- Janet Reno is suffering from the "Waco syndrome", afraid to make the wrong call.
- The political ramifications in the U.S. presedential election year are important. Al Gore has distanced himself from the Clinton administration on the issue (which may not be a popular stance in the rest of the country). Florida Governor Bush appears particularly silent.
- One guest recalled a precedent, a young Ukranian boy who stayed on, parents went home. Everyone is happy. Not likely in this case because of the virulent anti-Castroism of the older generation of Cuban Americans.
- There appears to be a split between older and younger Cuban Americans, but how will this affect voting patterns?
In any event, there was agreement that this is one of the most outrageous propaganda wars we have seen, all waged on behalf of a bewildered 6 year old who should be with his father who appears to be a pretty decent human being.
(Editor's note: subsequent events of Easter weekend defied even the vivid imaginations of Wednesday Nighters.)
THE WORLD BANK/IMF MEETINGS AND DEMONSTRATIONS
The issue is the rights of protest versus the rights to interefere with public meetings. But how else do people confront the absence of alternatives and paradigms of change?
Who ARE the demonstrators? The people we see on TV are not the down-trodden. Who funds the demonstrations? Is it the unions who are losing jobs to the Third World?
The universal market economy rules and for most people life is worse in 2000 than in the '70s and '80s.
The less developed countries cannot begin to pay back the loans which were urged upon them by the World Bank and IMF; even with the concessions that have been made on interest payments. World Bank teams evaluate the situation and tell governments to cut back on education, healthcare and the other priorities which might improve the standards and economies of those impoverished nations.
Beyond the young, idealistic (or otherwise) participants, is there a particular style of protest reappearing - a trend that institutions should pay attention to? We should not forget that in the '60s university campuses were a battleground for causes as varied as civil rights and "McGill français". Generally 300 (out of 18 000) students created the disturbance. The university administrations didn't know how to deal with the situation then and there's little to indicate that institutions have learned anything!
(Editor's note: The Gazette's Saturday editorial on the meetings is well worth reading)
HEALTHCARE
Dr. Langlois, of the Jewish General has made a public plea on behalf of a number of cardiologists who are seeing patients die as they wait for surgery. Quebec hospitals have the equipment and staff to peform the required operations, but not the budget to pay for them. Patient care is a secondary issue for politicians who are balancing the budget.
The Alberta solution will probably lead to 2-tiered service, despite the denials by politicians. Klein is trying to overcome the inherent inefficiencies in the system and may succeed. We are probably headed toward the 2-tiered system, but don't bank on eliminating the inefficiencies in this province.
Québec is losing doctors, nurses, technicians... the politicians were surprised by the numbers that accepted the buy-out plans.
We have now gone from being the province that paid the highest fees to physicians to being the 2nd lowest.
General agreement that, in George Bowser's phrase "c'est la faute du fédéral". In this case, it is the Feds who have made the greatest cuts to healthcare. Do we need a Royal Commission on healthcare? Only if Patients' representatives are present, as they should be in any negotiation. Meanwhile, Healthcare is a high tech enterprise which is being run like a factory in the '40s. The public policy system in this sector is broken and almost beyond fixing, and it is highly unlikely that we are capable of fixing it ourselves.
THE ECONOMY
The feds have repaid $20B of the debt - it is now 58% of GDP. Canada is now the 5th worst of the developed countries. We are committed to paying down at the rate of $3B per annum. The future for expenditures on healthcare does not look good.
THE MARKET
The Market became irrational, influenced by the Asian markets. Ratios became irrational. Nonetheless, today "Serious" stocks are still a good investment, but the more speculative (read dot coms?) are going through an important correction and a major shake-out is likely.
Will this correction set up new buying?
We're more likely being set up for a real drop - a Bear Market - in 2001/2002.
The day traders are taking profits away from the floor traders (specialists).
Quotes of the evening:
- "Our food is organic, only our waiters are genetically altered."
- "Healthcare is probably THE most political issue in this country today. In Québec, healthcare's best friend is Mme Marois and the most powerful oponents are Landry and Léonard."
- "Why do we constantly compare ourselves to the U.S.? Because we can move there."
REX MURPHY: Dot-com looniness, phantoms of
avarice and appetite. Of course the stock market, even the new economy NASDAQ is nothing more than old-fashioned gambling. And the
NASDAQ, properly understood, is nothing more than bingo for
yuppies. The difference is that for this generation, bingo is a game
in which everyone is entitled to win all the time.
Rex Murphy April 17, 2000 Dot.com IPOs
Diana Nicholson |
Scribe and Editor,
Diana Thébaud Nicholson
With thanks to the
Michael Judson
Tuesday, March 28, 2000
Hi David & Diana,
Read how the internet will be the agent of tectonic shifts
in the global economy.
Just came across the massive (343-page) e-volve
report put out by Bear Stearns (
www.bearstearns.com)
and recommend it highly for examples of how the e-conomy
is transforming everything else. If you're an info junkie like me,
here's a prime lode of your drug of choice.
Cheers,
Guy Stanley
Wed945
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