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THE INVITATION
Wednesday Night Salon # 949
10 May 2000 with Dr. Mihailo Crnobrnja
It has been quite a week! For those of us priviledged to hear Kimon on the
subject of Global Governance last Wednesday, it was a bit of a shock to
wake up to Global Chaos on Thursday morning. Presumably this will give rise
to a new entry in the Lexicon - E-Chaos.
Then there was the PQ Convention and St Lucien's restored halo. In that
context, nothing prefaced by E- was popular, so let us move on.
On Sunday, a priviledged few heard the inspirational Shimon Peres discuss
his view of the future and the Institute that he has founded. He wryly
expressed the hope that E-Commerce might make way for E-Peace.
See the Shimon Peres Institute for Peace
But the news out of Africa - and particularly Sierra Leone - is not
encouraging for the immediate future of E-Peace. The ineffectiveness and
total collapse of the UN Peacekeeping effort is both horrific and
deplorable. Sri Lanka's experience is similar. How do we fix the world?
On a more E-ncouraging note, Michael Judson was to bring as his guest, Peter
Fisher, CEO of AVL Information Systems Inc. (AVLIS), pioneers in tracking
solutions with GPS technology, which combines basic GPS location with custom applications, he was a no show!
THE SALON
Wednesday Night Salon # 949
May 10, 2000
INTRODUCTION
Misha [aka Dr. Mihailo Crnobrnja] introduced Izabela Grocholski, an American of Polish background who has just completed her studies in Political Science at McGill and also has a broad interest in the arts, particularly music.
This week, there are a number of issues that have made the international news, including the meeting of the United States Federal Reserve on Tuesday May 16, China, trade and human rights, the ominous silence in the India-Pakistan conflict, Sierra Leone. These topics quite naturally formed the basis of discussion for the Nicholsons' Wednesday Night Microcosm.
THE ECONOMY
The U.S. economy is boiling, threatening inflation. The Consumer Price Index has risen to 3.7% (almost 2 ½ % excluding food and fuel). Wages are under upward pressure with hourly wage up almost four percent. There is a record job creation rate and the Stock Market is under pressure. As a result, the Federal Reserve will most likely announce a half percent increase in the discount rate on Tuesday May 16. The Bank of Canada has two days to react to the result of this move, before it announces its decision on Thursday May 16. The Governor and Deputy governor, would prefer a 1/4% increase because the Canadian growth figures have not been as positive as those in the United States.
February has seen the first Canadian decline in Gross Domestic Product in nineteen months. Following nineteen quarters of positive growth, February and March numbers have been weak, exports and domestic retail sales have declined. The Canadian Consumer Price has risen 3% in the last twelve months. Wages are climbing, but not as much as in the United States. On Tuesday afternoon, if the Canadian dollar remains at the sixty-seven cent U.S. level, the increase will be set at 1/4%, if it does not, it will probably follow the Federal Reserve with a half percent increase.
U.S POLICY ON CHINA
United States foreign policy remains inconsistent. A great deal is being said about linking trade with China with human rights issues, but the truth of the matter is that the United States probably benefits so much from inexpensive imports from China while enjoying full domestic employment, it is very unlikely that the human rights issue will be a factor. Unilateral attempts at enforcement would be futile. It has been so in Cuba and no attempt is being made in Chechnya. With continuing globalization, it is possible that the next generation in China, will be less intransigent.
PEACEKEEPING
The U.N., NATO and the U.S. are having mixed success in peacekeeping efforts throughout the world.
In Bosnia-Herzegovina, roughly seventeen thousand international civil servants, - specialists in everything-, under the direction of The Lord High representative, are running the country with dictatorial powers. Interesting to note that nearly 1 Billion USD has been stolen (corruption), but on the surface, at least, there are relatively few problems and he infrastructure is being rebuilt. One auspicious note is the results of the mayoralty elections in Sarajevo where the democratic forces won big against the Muslims.
Kosovo, on the other hand, remains a quagmire for peacekeeping forces.
The United Nations requires that peacekeeping forces in Africa be regional, but Africans do not have the sophisticated equipment to keep the peace. In Sierra Leone, the war is being financed by the illegal diamond trade. There is more involved than inter-tribal conflict. Africa suffers from the relatively short time that has elapsed since the beginning of independent administration, (many of today's leaders have evolved only recently from being guerilla " freedom fighters" and in countries like Zimbabwe, their political power depends on keeping their former guerilla companions happy). Furthermore, African nations have been until now disfavoured economically as the First World has never believed that continent's sphere of influence to be sufficiently far-reaching to warrant major aid, or more importantly, technical assistance (except, of course, during the Cold War when votes were crucial in the U.N.)
Though not widely recognized as such, India is probably the most dangerous potential flashpoint. The largest democracy in the world (India expected the birth of its billionth citizen on Thursday morning), India is not given adequate recognition. Instead of leaving India with nowhere to turn but China or Russia, the West should embrace India and accord more than symbolic recognition to this large democratic nation. But, since Indian independence, Western, and especially U.S., attitudes towards India have been negative - partly this may stem from the resentment of India's strong role in the bloc of Unaligned Nations and frequent votes against the U.S. in the U.N. in a period when in U.S. foreign policy, there was no grey area. Marshall Tito and Sukarno managed to gain respect as leaders of unaligned nations while India's role created resentment. Could it be that the American politicians and leaders of the time were not ready to deal with a strong, vocal and critical female leader of such a large country?
Unfortunately, there is no Indian constituency in the United States.
QUOTES OF THE EVENING
- "What is the success rate for a country refusing to trade with another country over human rights issues?"
- "It is hard to see into the totalitarian mind."
"If Gorbachev had acted one notch down the way he did when he reached the top, he never would have made it."
- "China will never look like the U.S."
- "You can keep the peace as long as you spend enough money."
- "India and Pakistan is the most dangerous flashpoint in the world."
Notes by Herb Bercovitz Sculptor
Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson
Wed948Kimon
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Friday, May 26, 2000
Dear Mr. and Mrs. Nicholson,
I have finally made it to New York following a rather hectic concluding
week in Montreal. And now, together with many other fresh college graduates,
I am looking for work to sustain me until I depart for Warsaw.
I wanted to thank both of you for a wonderful evening, Wednesday, May 10.
It was very interesting to have received a taste of the activities of
Montreal's cultural and political elite. It is one salon I will not forget.
In spite of my VERY utopian dreams of becoming the next Toscanini, my plans
for the near future are not connected to music. I majored in Art History and
minored in Political Science...quite an interesting and very important
combination of fields might I add. I still have not decided, however, if I
will continue to work in the visual arts, or if i will lean more heavily
towards the political world. Although my curatorial experience has been
fascinating, I am surrounded by so many other oppurtunities which I still
wish to explore. Journalism for example, is tickling my interests and it is
an area I intend to pursue in Poland.
Well, the formation of ideas and their implementation are two very
different things. We will see how I resolve that difference.
In any event, my memory is filled with great experiences which all have and
will have a big influence on my future activities. Wednesday the 10th has
definitely left an imprint with me...quite unwarranted and very pleasant.
Unfortuantely I too l have left an imprint with you, unwarranted and not so
pleasant (depending, of course, on the success of the salt)...a wine stain on
your tablecloth.
I apologize for that surprise, and I thank you kindly for allowing me to
enjoy your company. Perhaps we will cross paths again one day.
Sincerely,
Izabela Grocholski
Izia78@aol.com
Please phone (514 934-0023
or e-mail us your thoughts. 
)
