Bank Stock Forecasts
Fiona Nicholson's Telephone Banking [CIBC] Resource
A Complete source of Canadian Banks for other countries,
see Her HOME page a well setup ... neat site.
Soon come Fiona Nicholson
and click for her friends who
will join us for Wednesday #961
Almost every Wednesday there is mention of the children who have left
Montreal ... Québec... and Canada and what we can do to entice them home
again.
Comet |
This week it is our great joy to have Fiona, our daughter, with us for a
brief visit from Regina where she has been with the CIBC Telephone Banking
Centre since it started up. Many of you know her, for those who don't, she
is a delightful surprise and has been in Regina long enough to have
acquired some very different viewpoints from those with which she departed
the Montreal/Ottawa base where she grew up and went to University.
Fi has with her good friend, colleague, mentor, co-driver and fellow
dog owner, Heather Schilling. We are, needless to say, absolutely delighted to have them with us this Wednesday and hope you will join us in welcoming them!
David and Diana Nicholson (PROUD PARENTS)
Please give Fiona our warm regards. We enjoyed meeting and talking with her
when she was in Ottawa and know how delighted we would be if we were seeing
one of our girls for the first time in so long a while. Especially at this
point in their lives, they are still changing quickly and where we used to
have to pursue them physically, we now have to pursue them intellectually.
We are confident that her time in the West has given her interesting
insights, especially as it is part of the "West" other than the far more
press prominent Alberta or BC. We will be interested to hear her commentary
on the relative strength and attractiveness of Liberals, NDP, and CA (I don't
even mention the PC) and hope that her observations will be part of your
weekly roundup.
Warm regards, Dave and Terry [Jones Washington]
Wednesday Night Salon #961
2 August 2000
INTRODUCTION OF NEW GUESTS:
David Berger presented Geoffrey and Mira Clarfield from Israel. Geoffrey is an anthropologist with lengthy experience in East Africa, where he currently manages a community building project sponsored in part by CIDA (Canadian International Development Agency). Mira is a jewelry designer.
Fiona Nicholson introduced her colleague and mentor from CIBC's Electronic Banking Centre in Regina, Heather Schilling.
PEREZ CENTRE FOR PEACE.
Revisiting the breakfast with Shimon Perez at the Ritz Carlton last May, we learned that the PCP now is eligible to participate in the DFAIT international internship program, provided the time can be found to handle a rather significant compliance procedure. Other possibilities for student placement in the region include the McGill Middle East Program and the University of Toronto -based Canadian International Scientific Exchange Program. One guest commented that the Canadian Embassies in the region also have access to funds for promoting cross-border and cross- cultural cooperation in the region. In this connection, attention was drawn to the significance of environmental issues as a catalyst for Israeli-Palestinian cooperation.
ISRAELI PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
Regarding the recent defeat of Mr. Perez as Israel's President in favour of the less prominent Moshe Kalzav, the discussion turned to the "Parli-dential" system of government now in place. Under this system, Israeli voters now elect the Prime Minister directly, which permits "ticket splitting" for the Knesset itself. Consequently, representation of the two major parties has declined to 20 members and minority religious parties' membership has leapt to 17. Some biographical details of M. Kalzav were also shared. In the 90-day summer recess, M. Perez is continuing his promotion of the peace process which, according to some, had been significantly facilitated by President Clinton's intervention and the Camp David peace talks. Although ending in failure, these nevertheless managed to open up for discussion areas hitherto never mentioned at the highest level of negotiation, including the governance of Jerusalem and Palestinian right of return. This paragraph closed with an observation about the massive influence of the US in the region, especially now that it is the world's only super-power.
Peres Bio and our page on Shimon Perez
Host Diana Nicholson |
CANADIAN BANKS.
Fiona Nicholson |
Heather Schilling |
Turning to Canada's banking industry, a discussion ensued about tele-banking and in particular the tele-service component of Canadian bank operations. An observation was made that the CIBC, which generally rates 5 of the 6 banks in terms of customer service, has a 95 per cent customer satisfaction rate on its tele-service component--a performance at the levels of some global leaders like Disney. Others nevertheless complained about the impact of branch closings and the loss of personal service which was obtainable in jurisdictions where there was more banking competition. How much was it desirable to disclose to one's financial advisor? Why did banks now demand so much information just to open an account? Some discussion occurred about the use banks made of this information, it being observed that Canadian banks were relatively un-aggressive and un-innovative in terms of mining personal data and promoting new products compared to some US banks. One observer attempted to relate the discussion to industry trends of the shift to wholesale banking, growing specialization at the retail level and the new global architecture of financial services, but at this point the number of participants shrank dramatically.
BEST-SELLING BOOKS.
Those remaining saluted the success of John Ciaccia's new book about the Oka crisis, A Mirror of the Soul/ Un Miroir de l'Ame, noting that it was number two on the English language best-seller list and number four on the French-language list.
TANZANIA AND AFRICAN ISSUES
At this point, we heard from our guests about the Tanzanian project at Ha-Nang. The origins of this project are traceable to the burst of international criticism encountered by an earlier Canadian-Tanzanian project designed to encourage food production through the establishment of large-scale wheat farming. While the project achieved its goals, international observers charged that it had done so partly through violating the human rights of the pastoral farmers that had previously used the land for grazing. The new project was a community building project in the same region designed to strengthen the community infrastructure and the ability of the different stakeholders in the area to resolves issues of development themselves, through local deliberative councils that in effect functioned like a New England town meeting, African-style. Democracy works, was the conclusion this project appeared to underline. Less democratic-top-down approaches, in contrast, tended to fail, including such examples as Nyere's attempts to enforce village socialism and Mugabe's land reform failures in Zimbabwe. Kenya's, by contrast, was relatively successful. Indeed, the harm that non-democratic political and military policies can have can be seen in the Ethiopian famine in which food became a weapon of war with Eritrea. This led to a general discussion of appropriate intervention by the international community and a recognition that this was a subject to be probed further.
Diana Nicholson |
Notes by Dr. Guy Stanley
No editing by Diana Thébaud Nicholson required!
Tuesday, August 01, 2000
Canadian Banks
Canadian Banks will begin reporting third quarter financial results starting on August 17th with Toronto Dominion Bank leading things off. The group is coming off an impressive run, posting average earnings growth of 36% over the past three quarters. These gains were largely facilitated by strong capital market revenues and the effects of share buy-backs, which have continued into this reporting period. We are forecasting that earnings growth will slow in the third quarter relative to the previous reporting period, but the year-over-year growth should be approximately 14%. Banks posting the strongest earnings growth should be the Royal Bank and CIBC. We believe the fundamentals are strong and the valuations still attractive. Capital levels are high, is strong and the asset quality is the best it has been in decades. We are maintaining our 1-Strong Buy recommnendaitons on Royal Bank and CIBC, and a 2-Buy recommnendation on Bank of Montreal. - K. Choquette
Monday, July 31, 2000
Overseas markets are stable overnight following last week's sharp sell-off. Although Asian markets fell in a delayed reaction to Friday's weakness in North America, European markets experienced a better - if cautious - bid. European markets are being led higher by the DAX Index in Frankfurt which is up 66 points or 0.9%. In economic news, Canada's GDP rose a strong 0.6% in May beating expectations of a 0.4% rise. A rebound in automotive production contributed to most of the monthly advance. On an annualized basis Canada's economy grew 4.8% from May 1999. In corporate news, CanWest Global Communications announced that it will purchase most of the Canadian newspapers controlled by Hollinger Inc. for $3.5 billion in stock, cash, and assumed debt. In return Hollinger will receive a 15% equity stake and 6% voting stake in CanWest. Lifeco Split begins trading on Thursday under the symbol "LSC" (capital shares) and "LSC.PR.A" (preferred shares). Intel Corp.'s shares trade on a 2-for-1 post split basis today.
Economic Commentary
Richard notes that as the debate about the economy and the Fed continues, markets should be volatile over the coming weeks. The "bear" case for interest rates is that the pause is at worst temporary as evidenced by the acceleration in real GDP in the 2Q. The "bear" case for earnings is that economic activity is slowing too much. Richard’s position remains that we have achieved the soft landing with growth moderating but not too slow and that inflation will fall in response to slower growth. He continues to be positive on the outlook for equities. - Richard Hokenson
In the largest media deal in Canadian
history, CanWest Global
Communications, a company that
started 20 years ago with a North
Dakota television station, is to pay $2.36
billion for dominant dailies in 8 of
Canada's 10 provinces. Mr. Black is to
gain a seat on the CanWest board and is
to become the second-largest
shareholder, after the family of the
company founder, Israel H. Asper.
"The borders are gone, we have to
grow," Mr. Asper, Global's chairman,
told a news conference in Toronto today,
comparing his acquisition to Tribune
Media's recent purchase of The Los
Angeles Times. "We don't intend to be
one of the corpses lying beside the
information highway."
Chapters Inc. (CHP - T $9.20) Recommendation: 3-Hold Target: $16.25
Chapters reported a first quarter loss of $1.12 per share compared with a loss of $0.90 per share during the same period last year. The loss includes results from Chapters Online which had a negative impact of $0.61 per share. Year to date the company's shares have declined by 56%. Investor concerns regarding market saturation and ongoing liquidity issues have contributed to this erosion. During the company's conference call, management discussed a lawsuit currently filed against the National Post. The suit alleges that the Post reported factually inaccurate reports on several occasions and contributed to the company's declining market capitalization. The company has implemented a number of priorities to improve future results. These priorities include the launch of two new product lines which should generate higher margins, new inventory control systems and a revised marketing and merchandising program. We caution investors that an investment in Chapters carries significant risk. We recommend the stock as a 3-Hold with a 12-month target of $16.25. - M. Brophy
And Dr. Mihailo Crnobrnja [Misha] Emb Yugoslavia is back from Europe with lots of first hand news.
#949 May 10, 2000 Dr. Mihailo Crnobrnja introduced
Izabela Grocholski US Federal Reserve +1/2%, China, trade and human rights, India-Pakistan conflict, Sierra Leone. The U.N., NATO and the U.S. are having mixed success in peacekeeping efforts throughout the world. & Bosnia-Herzegovina Bob Stewart Africa David Lukalo Sierra Leone Dr. Tony Deutsch CPI was up 3.7% now 2+% Yvette Biondi trade with China? Bosnia-Herzegovina Herb Bercovitz & Diana Thébaud Nicholson
DAVID and DIANA NICHOLSON
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e-mail us
Please phone (514) 934-0023
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